Mike Trout is the toast of the baseball town. He was called up to the Majors on April 28
and has literally been the most valuable player in either league since that
day. He has hit for power, stolen bases
and made some outstanding catches in the outfield. Any team would be lucky to have a player like
Trout, and he just turned 21, in case you needed extra convincing.
Kyle Gibson has a bright future as well. Odds are, he will not suffer another injury
as debilitating as he is recovering from.
He was a top tier prospect for the Twins with great control. His AAA numbers last year looked bad, but if
you looked closer, he did have a good strikeout rate, a great walk rate and a
strikeout to walk ratio well above 3.
While many would compare him to Brad Radke, he might have actually had
more ability than Radke, who was a Twins mainstay for about a decade.
Every single GM in baseball would take Trout over Gibson
right now and going forward. Gibson
still could be a number 3 starter on a good team, but Trout could end up as the
best player in the AL for the next 10-15 years.
Trout vs. Gibson is a 1st round knockout.
That is not to say that every GM would have taken Trout over
Gibson 3 years ago. Gibson was taken
22nd by the Twins and Trout was taken 25th by the Angels. In fact, 21 teams passed on Trout, with
Washington and Arizona passing on him twice (imagine Trout with Harper and
Strasburg!). Anaheim even passed on him
once, although, they had consecutive picks, so there was no risk in losing
him. That seems crazy now, but Trout
came from a part of the country that is not known for baseball. Therefore, some wondered if he was just a big
fish in a small pond.
Turns out, Trout is a whale shark. Enough fish puns though.
So, this is not a critique of the Twins' front office. They had taken Aaron Hicks, a toolsy,
slick-fielding, cannon-armed, power projectable outfielder, just one year
earlier. While you should take the best
player available in drafts, Gibson also fit the Twins' profile for a starting
pitcher. He flew through the minor
leagues, and likely would have been in Minnesota last September, had he not
been injured. He will be only 25 years
old next season, and likely will spend at least some time with the Twins in
2013.
So, what if the Twins had drafted Mike Trout in 2009?
First, I doubt Trout would be tearing up MLB pitching in
2012 in a Twins uniform. The Twins do
not rush prospects, although, Trout was obviously not rushed. However, my gut says that Trout would be in
AAA right now, at the highest. His minor
league numbers aren't so insane that he would have forced the Twins' hand. He was good enough that he would have likely
split years at different levels, as he did with the Angels, but he almost
certainly would not have been called up in 2011 at age 19 with the Twins. The Trout Phenomenon would have almost
certainly have started later, but I do not think he would be any less a player
had the Twins drafted him; it just might have taken longer to find out. He likely would have debuted in September of
this year, or possibly even mid- to late-2013.
Second, Gibson almost certainly would still have all of his
original ligaments. No, that's not
true. Gibson would have been just as
likely to get hurt with any other team.
You cannot predict health with pitchers and Gibson could have just as
easily blown his arm out pitching with another team. Although, I do think that he may have done so
in the Majors. Gibson had pitched 3
years at Missouri, and was therefore 21 years old when drafted. In their 2010 prospect rankings, Baseball
America listed his MLB ETA as 2011. By
the way, those same rankings had Gibson rated 61st and Trout 85th as prospects
in all of baseball. So, while Gibson has
never reached the majors in real life, in this What If scenario, he may have.
Finally, the Twins would have the number 1 prospect in
baseball right now. As I said before, I
think he would be in AAA at the highest, but I also think he would be coming up
to the MLB any day. In fact, he may have
been a very recent call-up, as Trout would make Denard Span an even better
trade chip for the Twins. They might
have been more willing to trade Span back in July for some pitching help, under
this scenario. They would need even more
pitching help, as they never drafted Kyle Gibson, and therefore do not have any
sort of starting pitching prospect in the system.
This type of transaction is not likely one that can change a
franchise in the short-term. The 2012
Twins would likely still be a bad team with terrible starting pitching. Trout would be an exciting player for the
fans, but ultimately would not make them a playoff team. This can be seen with the current version of
the Angels, as they are falling dangerously close to missing out on the
playoffs this year, even with Trout. The 2015 Twins might have been another story. A player like Mike Trout has the ability to
be an MVP caliber player for many years.
He has power, speed, and defense, at a premium position. While he cannot win a World Series on his
own, he is a fantastic start for a rebuilding club.
Kyle Gibson is the only actual Twin between the two players. Pre-surgery Gibson never threw the ball
through a wall, and hopefully can reclaim the control and command that he had
before his elbow issues. If he can, he
still has the ability to be a number 3 starter in the MLB. If the Twins knew they would be getting a
number 3 starter with the 22nd pick in any draft, they would take that every
time. Gibson is no Trout, but he can
still prove to be a good draft pick for the Twins.
(Note: As I was
writing this, Mike Trout hit a freaking missile out of the park off Felix
Hernandez. I guess he felt I wasn't
giving him enough credit.)
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