Showing posts with label POWER RANKINGS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label POWER RANKINGS. Show all posts

Friday, October 31, 2014

Friday Power Rankings: Naps

For everyone over the age of 12, a nap is a glorious thing.  In fact, if you were able to read the mind of even the most stubborn "but I want to plaaaaaaaaay," two-year-old on the planet, I bet he or she would be thinking while dreaming "hey, this nap is pretty swell."  I love a good nap.  I relish every opportunity for a nap.  I'll take a catnap, a long nap, a car nap, whatever. 

No two naps are truly the same, but we can categorize naps quite easily.  Once we have categories, we can go one step further and break out some POWER RANKINGS!  Without any further introduction, here are the Nap POWER RANKINGS!

Honorable Mentions:

Car Nap - Napping while riding in the car.  This really only results in a satisfying nap if you are in the passenger seat with no one behind you.  Otherwise, you're using a window as a pillow. 

DaVinci Naps - Napping instead of sleeping.  This can also be referred to as sleep deprivation or "dangerous." 

Work Nap - Unless you're George Costanza, a work nap is a risky proposition.  Odds are, you aren't going to enjoy the sleep because you'll be worried that someone will catch you or hear your elephant snoring and no longer want to promote you.

Catnap - Not really my thing.  I need a nap to last longer than a few seconds and preferably, longer than a few hours.  Then again, cats are very popular on the internet.

Power Nap - 15 to 20-minute naps that are intended as a quick refresher.  Generally, these turn into standard naps once you remember how to turn the snooze off. 

Surprise Nap - These naps hit you out of nowhere and often cannot be halted.  Of course, when you hit a surprise in the wrong setting, you can end up banging your head on some pretty rugged corners. 

School Nap - The only kind of nap can should end with someone yelling "HEY" and pulling your arm out from under your chin.  The yelling could come from a friend, enemy, teacher, principal, lunch lady, police liaison, or Mr. Belding (of course, he'll say "hey" three times).

10.  Exercise Nap
Unfortunately, this nap requires exercise, so it cannot be higher than 10.  However, if you subject yourself to exercise, napping afterwards is a nice reward.  So is pizza.  Which also helps with napping.  The best Exercise Nap occurs immediately after a workout, laying flat on the ground, sweating, red, breathing like a walrus.   

9.  The Late-Night Nap
It's getting late, close to when you normally go to bed, but darn it, you're tired now!  Rather than brush your teeth and put on your PJs, why not take a little late-night nap?  There is something so satisfying about falling asleep just a little bit earlier than usual.  Of course, these naps generally end with you waking up drooling and angry with your one-hour previous self for not just going to bed in the first place.  Because of this phenomenon, the Late-Night Nap cannot be rated higher than this.  It's just science. 

8.  Whoa, it's 11 o'clock? Nap
I was the absolute master of these naps when I was in high school and college.  Don't confuse this nap with the late-night nap.  This is a nap that starts at a reasonable time, say 4-5pm, but ends long, long after you intended to wake up.  These naps typically start during the light of day and end with you confused in the dark.  They also end with you watching Timecop around 1-2am.  

7.  Car Nap at Work
A very underrated nap.  These naps are strictly for napping professionals.  Basically, you go out to your car during lunch or maybe whenever you want depending on where you work, and you take a nap in the driver's seat of your car.  There's always the risk that one of your co-workers will walk by and find out what an oddball you are, but those 35 minutes of sleep are totally worth it. 

6.  Chair Nap
I'm going word of mouth on this one.  The chair nap cannot be perfected until after the age of 50.  You can't cheat the life-cycle.  Once you turn 50 (remembering that we all develop at different rates, some reach this stage at 45, others it's 55 or later), you can take a nap while sitting in a chair and make it look like something a human would actually want to do.  Based on the rate of snoring, these naps seem reasonably satisfying, despite a complete lack of neck stabilization.

5.  Outside Nap
An extremely underrated nap, but one that cannot be perfected in winter.  Don't try.  Napping outside can take a lot of different forms, but there's something about the fresh air, the warm sun, and the accommodating bees, that just create a perfect napping atmosphere.  Just remember, if you fall asleep in the sun, whatever is covering you will be permanently burned into your face.

4.  Bed Nap
This cannot be confused with sleeping.  You cannot nap and sleep at the same time, if that makes any sense.  Taking a nap in your bed is fantastic.  You get all the benefits of night sleeping without losing 7-10 hours of premium late-night television and movies.  Bed naps are required to last at least one hour, or they do not count. 

3.  Couch Nap
Somehow more satisfying than the Bed Nap, a Couch Nap can only be described as "amazing."  Even though the general association of "sleeping on the couch" is considered negative, napping on the couch is divine.  Unlike a Bed Nap, a Couch Nap can be shorter than an hour, or it can be intermittent, spread out over an entire Sunday.  The Couch Nap was made famous by the comic strip "Blondie" which was made famous by newspapers, which is what we use to line our hamster cages and to create our ransom notes.

2.  Sports Naps
Before we had the DVR, we had Sports Naps.  The proper Sports Nap begins somewhere near the beginning part of your favorite sport.  You know, the lame part.  First inning, first quarter, first period, first half, whatever.  When the nap starts, the game is boring.  You'll wake up from time to time, kind of hazily take in the score and proceed to complete the nap.  When it's over, you've time-traveled to the meat of the game.  Eighth inning, fourth quarter, third period, whatever part of soccer is fun. 

Nothing is better than falling asleep during an 8-8 NBA first quarter and waking up to an 88-88 tie with 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  These naps are both physically and mentally satisfying.

1.  The Pajama Nap
The Bed Nap's attractive Shelbyville cousin.  Nothing tops the Pajama Nap.  This is a nap that is planned and likely to be long enough to change into comfortable sleepwear.  This nap only comes around once in awhile.  That perfect combination of free time, tired eyes and a quiet place to sleep.  Sleep researchers recommend that you don't nap in your bed because it will confuse you when it's time for real sleep.  On the other hand, screw sleep researchers!  Pajama Naps are worth the confusion.  They are the Holy Grail of Naps. 


This is not an exhaustive list.  There are many other forms of nap that I have omitted, some purposely and some because I really want to go take a nap.  What is your favorite form of nap?  Let me know in the comments below!

Friday, July 25, 2014

Minnesota Twins July Power Rankings!

Is it really almost the end of July?  Is the 2014 MLB season really over 100 games deep?  Is it really annoying to ask three hypothetical questions because the writer can't think of an introduction?  As always, these POWER RANKINGS are cumulative, so a hot July is not more or less important than a hot April.  If I have one rule in life, it is that a hot July is not more important than a hot April.

I wanted to write about Kendrys Morales, but a top 250 list would have taken forever.  Plus, he got traded.  Onward!

Correia's most recent start was a dud, but he had been pretty great over the eleven starts before that.  In fact, I had argued that the Twins should hang on to Correia for the rest of the season and I had even started to think that he might be worth extending.  Yikes.  I wonder if Correia has some sort of mind-control device, but really bad instincts on who to use it on.  Of course, his low-strikeout act is always a risky one, so he could be reverting back to his early season form before our very eyes.  It will be very interesting to see if a team makes a decent offer for him. 

A June swoon had me reconsidering my entire Eddie 400 campaign.  I became very disillusioned.  I had my Eddie 400 tattoo converted back to my old Eddie Van Halen 400 albums request tattoo.  I'm wondering if I need to get it changed back again.  In July, Escobar has a .273/.322/.364 batting line, not great, but passable for a shortstop and much more realistic considering his level of talent.  If he can keep those numbers up through the end of the season, I'd see no reason to shop for a new shortstop in the offseason.  Escobar works for me as a stopgap between the "talent" of recent past and the talent in the farm system. 

8.  Sam Fuld
Welcome to the Power Rankings, Sam Fuld!  I would have bet my rather large collection of tunics that Sam Fuld would never appear on a list of top Twins performers.  Yet, here we are.  Fuld has easily surpassed Aaron Hicks' paltry 2014 performance and after a very slow start, he has rebounded to the tune of a 108 OPS+.  His defense has been passable in center and he's stolen 11 bases.  In all, Fuld has been a great in-season pickup.  Who would have thought?

Gibson missed his Wednesday start with a stiff lower back.  While a bad back is concerning, I'm much more concerned with Gibson's vanishing strikeout rate.  His K% had risen in each of the first three months of the season, but that rate has plummeted in 14 July innings.  Eh, small sample, whatever.  More concerning is his paltry 8.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season.  In fact, his strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties is just barely greater than one.  If Gibson can't find a way to get that K% against lefties into the teens, he's going to struggle to consistently make it through balanced lineups. 

That said, he's been the Twins' second-best starter this season.  Take that for what it's worth. 

Plouffe has become a serviceable player.  Since 2012, he has a 99 OPS+ and he's produced about 4.6 rWAR.  I'm not sure what the trade market for a guy like Plouffe is, but it seems like there would be a team out there who could use him.  Plouffe's future with the Twins is not clear.  Miguel Sano should be ready for third base in 2015 and Plouffe could make around $4 or $5 million in arbitration next season.  Plouffe has 29 doubles this season, and that's a lot.  Just wedging that in there.


Awesome.  9 pitches and now home-field advantage in the World Series is locked in for the Twins.  Perkins currently has the same strikeout total as Gibson and Correia.  I'll let you figure out who has thrown the fewest innings of the three.

Suzuki has been one of the tougher batters to strike out over the last few years.  Jason Kubel had twice the amount of strikeouts in half of the at-bats.  Of course, Suzuki isn't just good because he's better than Jason Kubel.  He's played over 80% of the Twins' games and he's provided decent defense.  His pitch-framing skills aren't great, but he can handle the position. 

Offensively, he's been great.  In fact, he's produced about as well as I thought Josmil Pinto could have performed if he had been given regular time (115 OPS+).  Remember that guy?  Kurt Suzuki made you forget about one of the more exciting young players on the roster.  That's how powerful he is.

Hughes has been slumping lately, but I as I wrote about on Monday, I'm not worried.  He's going through a terribly unlucky stretch where just about every ball put in play is a hit.  That's an exaggeration, but it certainly feels like it.  He'll bounce back.  Even with a slump, he's easily been the most valuable pitcher on the Twins' staff and his contract looks like a bargain.  I wonder when the extension talks start...

Dozier since May 20:  .200/.300/.397.  Yikes.  It's been clear that Dozier is scuffling a bit, but I didn't realize how long he had been struggling.  He has eight home runs during that span, but just 4 stolen bases and a walk rate under 10%.  He's been a consistently streaky player and his overall numbers are still pretty good.  However, two months with the numbers presented above is a concern.  Of course, he had built up so much value over the first two months that he's still easily the second-best player on the team. 

Who's first, you ask?

1.  Nobody
Controversy!  I am doing this for two reasons.  First, there is no one on the 2014 Twins who is truly deserving of being labeled "numba 1."  Dozier, Hughes and Suzuki have been consistently good, but hardly stunning.  Second, this is motivation.  I am doing my part to motivate the players ranked 2-10 (and those unranked as well; looking at you, Oswaldo Arcia).  Hopefully by this time in August, someone has knocked my socks off and rocketed to number 1 status.

In the meantime, the nine players on this top ten have at least contributed positively in 2014.  Somehow, this collection of dudes is on a 74-win pace, marking a fairly vast improvement from 2011-2013.  Can they maintain?  Can a few more players join them?  Can someone please answer my questions; I'm losing my mind?  Have a nice weekend, everyone!

Friday, June 27, 2014

June Minnesota Twins Power Rankings!

This good sweep, bad sweep thing is getting stressful.  The Twins are going to be inconsistent, but do they have to be so rollercoastery-consistent.  I know, that's not a word, but it feels accurate.  Anyway, we have reached the end of the month, so it is officially time for some POWER RANKINGS!  Remember, these are cumulative, so quit it with your recency bias. 

Considering I wanted to throw this guy in a dumpster about a month ago, I'd say the number 10 ranking is pretty darn special.  It's a neat thing, if you will.  Correia owns a 3.21 ERA in his last seven starts and he's only walked six batters in 42 innings over that span.  Last season, when Correia was effective, he limited walks much like he has over these last few weeks.  If he's trending in the right direction, the Twins might actually be able to get something of value if they decide to trade him.  Let's just never bring up the word "extension" around him. 

Santana left Wednesday night's game with a strain or sprain or tweak...a messed up knee.  Hopefully, he doesn't miss significant time as he has been one of the most fun players to watch on the entire team.  I thought Santana would join the Twins in 2014, but I didn't think he'd make it as a part-time center fielder.  Now mostly playing short, Santana hasn't looked lost or anything like that.  He's made just one error in 18 games and range was never really a concern.  His speed appears to be a legit weapon and I think he's going to be a guy who is really fun to track as he matures. 

Plouffe hasn't played since June 14, but appears to be close to returning.  In a way, having a player ranked this high who hasn't played in two weeks says more about the team than the player, but Plouffe has been a solid C this season.  Of concern is his nearly .200 batting average since May 1, but he's also been a relatively stable defensive player for the first time in his career.  Plouffe hasn't been great in 2014, but he's been serviceable.  On a team that still has many holes, serviceable works. 

Willingham is pretty much being Willingham in 2014.  He's hitting for power, walking a lot and making little contact.  This should come as no surprise as people tend to perform like the people that they are, if that makes any sense.  Having a consistent power threat in the middle of the lineup is pretty neat.  Personally, I even enjoy his defense.  It never seems like he's going to make the play, but sometimes he does.  It's an adventure!  Plus, he never changes his facial expression. 

After Perkins had back-to-back tough outings against Chicago last weekend, I saw a few folks who were expressing some concern regarding the performance of the Twins' closer.  As far as things Twins fans should worry about, here's where Perkins would rank:
  • 4,978.  Robot Bees
  • 4,979.  Glen Perkins
  • 4,980.  Denny Hocking's hand coming back to haunt the Twins a la the movie Idle Hands, which no one has seen
  • 4,981.  Does one italicize a movie title or put quotes around it?
Please do not be worried about the elite closer.  He's great. 
I tentatively had Gibson ranked third earlier this week, but his awful start on Tuesday dropped him two slots.  It wasn't that one game, it's the bigger issue of Gibson's home/road splits.  Home/road splits make no sense to me.  Sure, Target Field tends to favor the pitcher (not true, 101 park factor, actually benefits hitters), but Gibson's an extreme ground ball pitcher who does not benefit from Target Field (which actually does not favor the pitcher at all, with the exception of home runs allowed). 

His ERA is nearly five runs greater on the road, but his peripherals are actually slightly better on the road.  GUUUUUUH?!?   Well, his BABIP is lower at home and his strand rate is comically low on the road.  The reality is that it probably isn't the too hard mattress (or too soft if that's his bugaboo) in his hotel room, but just some odd luck and a small sample.  I imagine his road stats will improve over time.  His home stats will likely get worse as well.  He's not a 6.00 ERA pitcher or a 1.50 ERA pitcher, he's somewhere in the middle, just like every non-Scott Aldred pitcher. 

The Eddie 400 movement is a juggernaut, but Escobar himself is not a .320 hitter.  He isn't going to slug .500.  He's probably going to hit 30 doubles, which is pretty cool.  The main reason I wanted to see more from Escobar in 2014 was that I felt he could do more with his playing time than Pedro Florimon.  I like Escobar's defensive versatility and I think the Twins appreciate it as well.  I think it's fair to say that he has a role on the Twins for the next few years.  He might not always start, but I think he's the type of player who can start if needed and the team won't lose a lot wherever they put him. 

Suzuki has never had an OPS+ greater than 98 and that career-best figure came way back in 2007.  Suzuki is on pace to wallop that number and post his finest offensive season of his career, somehow at the age of 30.  The Twins signed Suzuki for peanuts and are getting great return on that investment.  I still find it hard to believe that Suzuki, at age 30, is suddenly a better hitter than he's ever been, but it's hard to argue with three solid months of good production.  I'm not sure how I feel about a long-term extension or anything like that, but I could easily be talked into re-signing Suzuki for another year.  Of course, I would have to borrow a lot of money to pay his salary.

Hughes is now the Twins' ace and the two biggest reasons cited are his improved control and a decrease in home runs allowed.  His walk rate is microscopic and he's only given up seven home runs all season.  However, another reason for his success is a significant increase in his ground ball rate, from just under 31% in 2013 to just over 36% in 2014.  While he is still significantly below the league average of 45.3%, six points of ground balls is a great way to keep even more balls in the park.  Will these gains last?  If they do, he might continue to perform as an Ace.

His batting average doesn't really move, but he just keeps racking up value.  His fWAR is now comfortably above 3 and he appears to be a pretty solid All-Star candidate.  I wrote all about Dozier's odd statistical output on Wednesday, if you want to read it.  Dozier and Hughes are clearly the two standout players in 2014.  If just two or three more players could join them in this category, the Twins would be a lot less rollercoastery.  Regardless, watching Dozier grow into a star player has been really fun. 

That's all I have as there is no number lower than one.  Well, zero, but that's lunacy.  Have a great weekend, everyone!

Friday, May 30, 2014

Minnesota Twins May Power Rankings

It's the last Friday in May and you know what that means:  arbitrarily ranking ten Minnesota Twins players!  Remember, these power rankings are cumulative, so May performances don't weigh any more heavily than April performances.  I will not be bound by recency bias!  Let's get "it" on.


Santana hasn't received enough playing time to truly be considered, but man, what a fun player to watch.  He's not the greatest fielder (at short or in center) but he's exciting at the plate and on the bases.  I think he'll be back in AAA before long, but he should have a long Twins career ahead of him.

10.  Casey Fien

Fien did completely blow the game yesterday (joking) but besides that game, he's been pretty outstanding.  He hasn't allowed a home run this season, which has helped offset his drastic drop in strikeout rate.  Of course, with relievers, the samples are so small that a couple of high-strikeout outings and he'll be right back in line with his previous seasons.  Fien has emerged as the Twins' best set-up man, not bad for a guy they grabbed off the scrap heap.

Deduno got off to a rough start on Thursday, but recovered to pitch another solid game.  His 55.1% ground ball rate would be fourth in the American League if he qualified.  He has done a better job with strikeouts and walks since entering the rotation.  Gone are the days of 2012 when a five-walk performance is always looming.  It looks like Deduno has legitimately figured things out and has settled in as a nice back-end starter.  I'm glad the Twins were more patient with him than I ever was.  Daily reminder - I am a hack.

I actually flipped Gibson and Deduno based on their respective performances in the Rangers series, but both guys have been consistently solid and sometimes better.  Gibson looked great on Wednesday, going six shutout innings while striking out four and walking zero.  This was despite the fact that the strike zone was about as inconsistent as Josmil Pinto's playing time (more on that later).  His lack of strikeouts still worries me, but he has done a better job of limiting walks recently.  His ground ball rate is climbing and that might be the best indicator of all. 

7.  Josmil Pinto

Sam Deduno's personal catcher.  It has a nice ring to it.  No wait, that's horrible!  Pinto actually played baseball on Thursday and rewarded my constant complaining about his absence by going 0-4.  Pinto hasn't been hitting all that well when playing in May, but he's also getting playing time as patchy as a self-hair cut.  Pinto is young and talented.  That is a good combination.  The irrational fear of not having a backup catcher or a DH IN ONE GAME is just not worth keeping someone this talented on the bench.  Seth Stohs wrote about this in more detail at Twins Daily earlier in the week and you should read it because he's totally right.

Plus, I mapped it all out for whoever has to tell Ron Gardenhire to get him in the lineup.  Here, just read how.

6.  Kurt Suzuki

I read something that indicated that Suzuki is interested in an extension with the Twins.  I can see why the Twins would be interested.  Suzuki is off to a great start and he's the kind of leader the Twins have always loved.  However, a Suzuki extension might actually stop my heart because it would mean more off this Pinto situation than I can take.  Plus, he had a 78 OPS+ from 2011-2013 and he's starting to cool off, batting .189/.250/.324 over the past two weeks.  It's extremely important to not overreact to hot stretches and I hope the Twins remember that.  If not, I can certainly get Joe Mays and Nick Blackburn on the phone for them. 

Who would have ever thought that Trevor Plouffe would round into a relatively complete player?  Back when he was endangering the life of everyone in the first six rows behind first base, I would have collapsed if you told me that his arm would eventually become a decent weapon.  Of course, he's always had a strong arm and I've always had a proclivity for fake falling, but his arm was so inaccurate that it just never seemed he would be able to utilize that tool.  Now, he rates as an above-average defender at third and he's been an above-average hitter so far (108 wRC+).  He's also cooled off after a hot start, but he's still drawing more walks and hitting for better balanced power. 

Escobar is obviously playing well above his head, but let's just keep enjoying this wild ride while it's going.  When I advocated more playing time for Escobar in January, I never dreamed he would be this productive.  I did like his line drive swing and his doubles power, a combination that has helped him post a 145 OPS+ so far this season.  His defense at short is not as dynamic as Pedro Florimon's but he makes almost all of the routine plays and his arm is shockingly strong.  He's a fine solution at an important position, at least until Danny Santana or someone else is ready to take over full-time. 

31 strikeouts and 3 walks in 23.1 innings pitched.  Yeah, that's our closer.  I'm not sure if the national folks have fully noticed yet, but the Twins have one of the most talented closers in baseball.  I'm not sure that it matters if national folks have noticed either.  I would guess that Perkins is a lock for the All-Star game, as he's a local guy and he would be a great ambassador for the sport and the city.  He's been great, just as great as he's been in his entire career as a reliever.  I think I might ask him to Prom.

It was really tough deciding who was 1 and who was 2.  Hughes has been outstanding and probably the biggest positive surprise this season.  Everyone thought that his move from Yankee Stadium would help because he'd give up fewer home runs, but no one realized the effect that moving specifically to Minnesota would have on his walk rate.  The Twins preach to limit walks and Hughes has always done a decent job in that area.  Now, he's elite.  Elite walk rates turn marginal pitchers into effective pitchers (Scott Diamond, Carlos Silva, etc) and take effective pitchers and make them stars (Brad Radke and now Hughes).  If he maintains this level of control, I see no reason to believe that he won't also maintain this level of performance.  What a great signing!

Dozier has cooled off recently, but he's still giving the Twins great production in just about every way.  His defense is outstanding, his baserunning is opportunistic and while his batting average is not great, his on-base skills and power make up for that lack of contact.  He's doing all of this with a .252 BABIP, so I'd expect his average to start to rise in the coming weeks.  He's on pace for about a 6-WAR season, which is approaching Chuck Knoblauch territory.  Plus, that hair.

There we have it.  What do you think of my list?  Noticeably absent is Joe Mauer, who just can't seem to get a hot streak going.  I thought he'd be in the top 3 by now, but maybe I was just a month early.  I'd also expect Oswaldo Arcia to join this list in June, mostly because I love him and I am very biased.

Have a great weekend!  

Friday, April 25, 2014

Minnesota Twins April Power Rankings!

Welcome to the first official Power Rankings of the young season.  On the last Friday of every month, I'll count down the 10 best Twins' performances up to that point in the season.  Today, we'll look at the Twins through three weeks.  I'm not going to do any projecting, I'm basing these rankings solely on how the players have performed.  BABIPs and FIPs be darned!  Well, maybe I'll cite those stats when they support my argument.  BIAS!  Anyway, let's count down the 10 best Twins through the Twins' series with Tampa Bay.

NR.  Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer's 2014 season hasn't been the derailed train that crashed into a tire fire while covered in octopus' ink that it's been made out to be, but there's no doubt that he hasn't been one of the ten best Twins players to this point.  His strikeout rate is alarmingly high and while he's still getting on base and scoring runs, he has almost no power and he hasn't been great with the glove.  That said, I'd put money on Mauer being in the top 3 when I do this in May.  He's too talented to slump for seven weeks.  Put me in the "not worried" camp.   


Brian Duensing's demise appears to have been a bit exaggerated.  He wasn't great in 2013, but there were plenty of factors that pointed toward some bad luck and some potential regression on the horizon.  Duensing has yet to give up a run and he's pitched an inning or more in five of his eight appearances.  While he's only thrown 9 and 2/3 innings, that volume of good innings on this staff is practically worthy of team Cy Young consideration.    


While he has allowed a hilarious five of seven inherited runners to score, he hasn't given up many runs of his own and his ERA currently sits below two.  Deduno does not seem like a particularly good fit for high-leverage relief innings, but as a mop-up guy, he could actually provide some interesting value.  Case in point, he came in after a short Kyle Gibson start on Tuesday, let all of Gibson's runners score, then threw four shutout innings, striking out two and walking just one.  I'm 100% certain that Deduno finds his way into the rotation at some point, but I think this long-man role is a better fit for Deduno's "effectively wild' shtick. 


Perkins blew his first save opportunity of the season on April 2, then he gave up another two runs in a blowout win on April 5.  After that game, his ERA sat at 12.  Since then, he's thrown eight shutout innings, notching four saves while striking out twelve and walking just one batter.  Basically, he's the same nasty ol' nasty Perkins.  That doesn't sound nice, but I swear it's meant as a compliment.  He was particularly nasty in this most recent series against Tampa Bay.  He earned two saves by pitching two innings, striking out three and allowing no baserunners.  He needed just 20 pitches to complete those two innings.  Filthy.  Nasty.  Perkinsy.      


Suzuki made a grand debut as a Twin with four RBI and a .500 average in his first two games.  He's cooled off significantly, which is annoying because I had 5,000 "Kurt Suzuki is better than Ted Williams" t-shirts printed in early April and now I'm worried if I'll be able to sell them.  My lack of foresight, business sense, common sense, and intelligence aside, Suzuki has done a nice job as the Twins' regular catcher.  He's not good at pitch framing, but he handles the rest of the defensive responsibilities quite nicely.  While I think he finishes the season as a backup, his presence on the roster is a positive. 


Who doesn't love a good reclamation project?  You break out that old bench, polish it up, add some lacquer (?), sand it (?) and BOOM, you have a newer bench.  Jason Kubel = New Old Bench.  I'm not very handy.  Kubel has come in handy though!  He's hit for some power and driven in some runs.  His defense is...well, he can physically play defense and that's just a nice thing for him to do.  With the injuries the Twins have had in the outfield, it's nice that Kubel has been able to produce at the plate. 


Pinto seems to be one of those guys who just won't accept a part-time role.  Last year, he wasn't going to be the everyday catcher in September.  Then, he hit like a Wildman (specifically, Wildman Marc Mero) and forced his way into regular activity.  This year, it seemed that Pinto would get a start every third day or so and maybe a DH start every now and then if Ron Gardenhire wanted to put a cigarette out on his wrist.  Pinto was all "hey man, I'm just going to play a lot because I'm really good" and no one can really argue with him. 

He's shown impressive power, excellent plate discipline and a winning smile.  His defense at catcher hasn't been great, but that's an area of development and we all knew that coming into the season.  DON'T ACT LIKE YOU DIDN'T KNOW THAT!   


Brandon Warne, who is doing some writing for the Pioneer Press, articulated something that I was noticing this season in regards to Plouffe's approach to hitting.  While I was all "duh, he looks different," Warne wrote this really great article that you should read.  In short, Plouffe is using the whole field instead of pulling everything.  This approach is not only helping his batting average, it's leading to much improved plate discipline.  Compared to 2013, his strikeout rate is way down and his walk rate is over twice as high.  These are the adjustments that take a hitter from "fringe regular" to "everyday player."  If these developments hold all season long, Plouffe will turn in a very nice season. 

3.  Kyle Gibson

Tuesday's rough start aside, Gibson has been the Twins' best starter and it hasn't been remotely close.  His first three starts established Gibson as one of the better ground ball pitchers in the American League and he currently ranks in the top ten in that category among qualified AL starters.  In addition, he has not allowed a home run this season and his strikeout rate has been slowly climbing as the starts go by.  Gibson should continue to be the Twins' best starter.  He actually could get better if he can get his walks under control.     


Tying Kirby Puckett's April record for RBI isn't enough to get to the number one spot?  Hitting a home run on his Mom's birthday while she's being interviewed isn't enough for the number one spot?  Slugging nearly .550 isn't enough for the number one spot?  Yep.  Colabello has been the Twins' best hitter so far but his defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The number one guy is deserving and we'll get to him in a second, but Colabello is certainly worthy of number one consideration himself.  He went 0-5 on Thursday, but everyone has a bad game.  It was probably Colabello's first bad game in 2014.  He's earned a ton of playing time and I have no idea how the Twins can keep him out of the lineup even when the whole team is healthy.  He looks legit. 


How can a guy hitting .224 lead the list of best Twins performances?  A 16.3% walk rate leading to a .356 OBP.  Six home runs that are contributing to a .447 slugging percentage.  22 runs scored, setting the table from the leadoff spot quite nicely.  Six stolen bases and generally great baserunning.  Excellent defense?  Aaaaaaaaay, you got it.  It all adds up to a player who is hitting .224 and still third in the American League in fWAR.  In addition, Dozier's BABIP is very low, so we could be discussing an even more impressive player by May.  Good thing the Twins didn't give up on him after 2012!  

There we have it, the ten best performances thus far.  You certainly noticed the lack of balance between the batters and the pitchers.  I expect there to be better balance by May, but I'm just happy to be cheering for what looks like a pretty fun team. 

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Monday, March 31, 2014

Minnesota Twins Power Rankings: March 31, 2014

OPENING DAY HAS ARRIVED!  As we all collectively rejoice/boogie, I thought it would be fun to send out the offseason Power Rankings with a bang!  Starting next Monday, the Monday Morning Madness will return, likely to much acclaim and fanfare.  I'll release monthly Power Rankings, designed to rank the best performances from the best Twins players each month.  Now that you are fully up to speed on my schedule, we can get to actual rankings.

I thought it would be fun to try to project the top 10 players by WAR for the upcoming season.  I've meticulously combed my list and I'm ready to project.  These are simply wild guesses, but if it makes you feel better, you can imagine me standing next to a giant computer, like this:


There, now my credentials have been confirmed.  I'm using rWAR (Baseball Reference) because they use ERA instead of FIP to calculate their pitchers' WAR and I prefer their fielding metric.  I also prefer to project actual performance instead of projected performance.  That would lead to projected projections and I'm not willing to make anyone dizzy right now.  Let's start.

10.  Josh Willingham - 0.3 in 2013, Projected 1.3 in 2014

If only there were a way to designate a hitter who just bats and doesn't field.  If that were possible, I'd rank Willingham higher on this list.  I think he bounces back offensively, at least to an extent, closer to his 2009-2011 production and short of his 2012 production.  In those three seasons, he was worth roughly 2.5 oWAR.  Back then, his defense was just bad, not Delmon, so he finished with WARs in the 2.5 range.  His defense has deteriorated to the point of liability and his overall WAR will greatly suffer as a result.  Of course, he'll still be better than he was in 2013, so I guess this is good news?

9.  Pedro Florimon - 2.1 in 2013, Projected 1.5 in 2014

Florimon's WAR comes almost entirely from his defense.  He was worth -18 runs as a batter last season, but his oWAR was slightly saved by some solid baserunning.  I don't think his offense will improve and I'm not sure he can hit enough to maintain that baserunning value.  Florimon hit .201/.262/.314 in the second half.  His defense is great; that's what keeps him in the lineup.  For now, anyway.  This projection basically takes his 2013 season and removes a mess of games because I think the Twins wise up and either give Eduardo Escobar some time at short, or they promote Danny Santana when he's ready.  Either way, I don't see Florimon scuffling through 446 plate appearances in 2014. 

8.  Aaron Hicks - 0.7 in 2013, Projected 2.0 in 2014

You're surprised that Hicks had a positive WAR last year, aren't you?  You're questioning the concept of WAR, aren't you.  You're closing this window, aren't you?  WAIT WAIT!  Hicks earned a positive WAR due to adept baserunning and solid, but sometimes shaky defense.  His overall offensive WAR was positive because of the baserunning, so don't get too upset about that figure.  His poor hitting was certainly accounted for, I promise you.  I expect Hicks to improve his hitting and fielding in 2014 while maintaining his solid baserunning.  I don't expect a full breakout just yet, but I think Hicks gets incrementally better and looks like a solid overall player by the end of 2014.

7.  Josmil Pinto - 0.7 in 2013, Projected 2.0 in 2014

It's hard to project Pinto any higher because we don't know how much playing time he will receive at the beginning of the season and we don't really know how his defense will rate.  If the concerns about his defense manifest, he could finish with a lower WAR.  He's not going to hit like he did last September, but he could easily surpass what Oswaldo Arcia did in 2013 (.251/.304/.430), which was good for 1.0 oWAR in just 97 games.  I hope the Twins intend to play Pinto more than 97 times in 2014 and I think he will post a better OBP than Arica, if nothing else.  If he can reach 2.0 oWAR, his positional score and defensive rating could be a wash, leaving him right at 2.0 overall.   

6.  Glen Perkins - 2.1 in 2013, Projected 2.1 in 2014

Perkins has been very consistent over the past three seasons, posting 2.1, 1.3 and 2.1 rWAR over that span.  The dip in 2012 had a lot to do with a shocking 5 unearned runs, which don't hurt his ERA but is reflected in his WAR.  Perkins has actually gotten better in the past three seasons, raising his strikeout rate to elite territory while maintaining a sparkling walk rate.  I see no reason to project Perkins any lower than before, as he will continue to be a dominant reliever.  He'd be higher on this list, but it's hard for closers to amass a high WAR total due to their low innings totals. 

5.  Ricky Nolasco - 1.8 in 2013, Projected 2.1 in 2014

Nolasco actually had a 1.8 WAR in 2012 as well, making him the most consistent player in the history of the World.  He was on pace to surpass that figure, but getting traded to the Dodgers and by proxy, Dodgers' Stadium, deflated his WAR due to a favorable new home ballpark.  Nolasco's new home ballpark is a lot more similar to his old home in Miami than his temporary home in Los Angeles.  Since Nolasco is the de facto Ace for the Twins, I expect him to reach 200 innings with an ERA in the 4.00-4.20 range.  If that happens, he'll finish with a slightly higher WAR in 2014.   

4.  Oswaldo Arcia - -0.5 in 2013, Projected 2.5 in 2014

Arcia was a league-average hitter as a 22-year-old rookie in 2013.  He only played 97 games and got shuttled between AAA and Minnesota three times.  With a more stable slate of games ahead of him, Arcia could nearly triple his oWAR of 1.0 in 2013.  I think that he rounds into a .260/.330/.450 hitter in 2014, roughly equivalent to what Coco Crisp and Stephen Drew hit in 2013.  Those two were worth about 3.5 oWAR apiece.  Both missed more than 30 games as well.  If Arcia can hit the figures I think he can hit, his oWAR could be just North of 4.0. 

Defense.  Ok, there's no way to sugarcoat this.  Arcia is a bad defender right now.  I had hoped he'd look good in Spring Training, but he hasn't.  I have long-term hope for Arcia in the outfield, but 2014 doesn't look promising.  If that's the case and he's an awful outfielder in 2014, his dWAR will greatly drag his overall WAR down, leaving him in the 2.5 range.  He's going to be a good hitter.  Hopefully he can round into a better fielder because it would be a shame to have to hear about how overrated Arcia is due to his shoddy defense.

3.  Phil Hughes - -0.7 in 2013, Projected 2.8 in 2014

Oh God, what am I doing?!?  I clearly have a good feeling about Hughes in 2014.  To reach the number I have projected, he'll need to throw a career-best 200 innings and post an ERA in the 3.75 range.  Whoa boy.  Hughes' best season was 2012 when he threw 191.1 innings and had an ERA of 4.19.  He was brutal last year, but I'm willing to ignore that because...well, I want to.  This isn't science, how many times do I have to say that?  If Hughes had been just unfortunate with home runs in 2012 instead of woefully and borderline unfairly unfortunate, his ERA could have easily been in the 3.75 range and he might have lasted longer in games (he did make 32 starts). 

I think Hughes stays healthy in 2014, makes 30+ starts and looks generally good.  This projection could look really bad in either direction, as Hughes has a huge range of potential outcomes in 2014.  I'm optimistic.  I was really optimistic about Aaron Hicks at this time last year, in case you were wondering. 

2.  Brian Dozier - 3.8 in 2013, Projected 3.8 in 2014

I'm going to hold steady on Dozier in 2014.  I think he'll hit for slightly less power, but his BA and OBP will improve.  It will all be a wash when it comes to actual value, although it wouldn't shock me if his OPS+ ticks up just a bit.  I see no reason to downgrade his defense at this time, as Dozier is still a young man and looked really solid last season. 

1.  Joe Mauer - 5.4 in 2013, Projected 5.6 in 2014

I'm projecting a slight dip in dWAR due to his move from catcher to first.  While I think he will rate as a good fielding first baseman, the move down the defensive spectrum (a complete shift from one end to the other) will hurt his overall figure.  He'll still hit like a champ and rack up value.  He should play more games in 2014, so that helps.  I'm blindly projecting a .500 slugging percentage because I love being let down.  If he hits that number with his typical .320 BA and .400 OBP, his oWAR will be over 6.0 but the defense/position will drag him down slightly.  Better power, more games but a less valuable defensive profile all add up to a slightly more valuable Mauer in 2014.   

Remember, I was standing next to that giant computer; I know what I'm talking about.  What do you think of my guesses predictions?  I feel pretty confident.  If these figures prove accurate, the Twins could be pretty good in 2014.  If I'm wrong, they'll be even better because I'll have undersold these players, right?  Optimism!  Check back tomorrow as I'll have instant analysis of today's game just a mere one day after it happens.  Honesty!

Monday, March 24, 2014

Minnesota Twins Power Rankings: March 24, 2014

With just one week until the start of the 2014 regular season, the Twins 25-man roster is starting to take shape.  The fifth starter battle appears to have been settled.  The center field job appears to have been won.  The shortstop and catcher jobs were never really in doubt, but the backups appear to be falling in place.  Many of this week's top ten come from those battles, so let's get to the POWER! 


It's rare to see a player who was just cut from a team and outrighted to AAA on a list of the best performances from the past week, but I do think that Worley was fortunate in an odd way.  The Twins were willing to risk another team grabbing Worley, but he got lucky when no one else wanted him.  For Worley, this creates stability that might not have been guaranteed had another team claimed him.  That team could have kept him for a few weeks, done exactly what the Twins did just last week and then started the whole cycle again.  Instead, Worley is safely off the 40-man roster and able to try to fix whatever is wrong with him in Rochester.  I still hold out hope for Worley, mostly because I am unwilling to come to grips with reality.  It's what makes me such an excellent laser tag player.  

Deduno has pitched well in Spring Training.  Well, except for the 7 walks in just 13.1 innings.  Regardless, it appears the Twins have settled on Kyle Gibson for the fifth starter job and I think that's the right move.  I've long been critical of Deduno's high-wire act and I don't think it points toward long-term success in the rotation.

In the bullpen?  It could work.  He has the endurance of a starter and he can be effective in bursts.  I actually think this is the best role for Deduno and I think the Twins' bullpen is a lot stronger as a result.  Anthony Swarzak now moves to a more high-leverage spot, something I advocated for at the end of last season.  I also think the rotation is better with Gibson in and Deduno out.  If I'm wrong, Deduno is literally in the clubhouse already.  That's convenience!

Is there a worse hitter who is guaranteed a job in all of baseball?  Florimon has continued his anemic hitting since returning last week, collecting just 3 hits in 14 at-bats with 5 strikeouts and only one walk.  Florimon's hitting is no surprise and I certainly value his defense.  I just don't understand why a bad team like the Twins is so set on handing the job to such a one-dimensional player.  Yes, Florimon's defense is swell, but Eduardo Escobar can play some swell defense himself.  Plus, Escobar might actually hit above .230.  Why not try something different?  Pizza is delicious, but I still eat other foods once per week. 

Kubel was on the "scholarship plan" himself, but then he started hitting this last week and now he seems to be somewhat earning his seemingly locked-in DH job.  I'm Team Chris Colabello for the DH position, but Kubel appears to be the favorite of those who actually have some sway in the decision making.  As of Sunday, Kubel has just 7 hits in 33 at-bats.  He's struck out 12 times, but has walked 6 times, balancing things out ever so slightly.  Kubel has just one double and one home run, in those 33 at-bats.  I don't have a problem with Kubel starting the year as the DH, but if this small sample of Spring suckiness gives way to a larger sample of dreadful April/May hitting, then I hope the Twins do the right thing and give another player a chance to contribute. 

6.  Dancing Twins

I spent about four hours more than I should have on this post from last Friday, so I am going to shamelessly share it once more.  I analyzed the 1991 Twins dancing video and split up some of my favorite moments into animated gifs.  I also determined which current Twins player would take the place of the 1991 Twins player if we were to remake this video in 2014.  We should totally remake this video in 2014.  Click here to see what I can do in 4 hours.

Pshhewww!  That's how I write an exaggerated, relieved sigh.  This tweet made my Sunday a lot better:
You should follow Rhett Bollinger, if you don't already.  Then, you'd feel better too!  Wrist injuries are very rarely a sign of anything too damaging to a player, but they can also linger.  Since Buxton is dealing with just a strain, he should be able to recover with some rest and resume dominating baseball.  Even though I wasn't too worried about this injury to begin with, it's always nice to get some confirmation in the form of a tweet.

4.  AL Central

I spent about four hours last week working on AL Central previews as well.  Actually, it was almost certainly more than that, but I like the idea of an entire division of previews taking me as much time as a frame-by-frame viewing of a dancing video with Jack Morris shaking his hips.  Here is a link to my Tigers preview

Since I wrote it, Bruce Rondon went down for the season with TJ surgery and my reservations regarding the Tigers have increased.  You can get to previews of each team, including the Twins, by going to the bottom of the Tigers' post.  I picked the Tigers to win the Central, but I'm getting closer and closer to thinking the Royals will knock them off. 

Here's another Bollinger tweet from Sunday that made me feel good:
This actually comes as a surprise to me.  I thought for sure that Hicks was destined for AAA, especially considering the criticism he's been getting from Ron Gardenhire and Rob Antony this Spring.  In addition, it would have been very easy to brush aside his hot Spring since he did the exact same thing last Spring and then failed so spectacularly in the regular season. 

That said, I support this move.  Hicks has more promise than Alex Presley.  He's a better defensive player, he has better speed, he has better power and he has better OBP skills.  Presley might post a higher batting average, but Hicks should outperform Presley in every other area.  If you've read this blog, you know I love Aaron Hicks.  Good for him.

2.  Kyle Gibson

I mentioned Gibson earlier as he has apparently won the 5th starter job from Sam Deduno.  I support this move as well.  Gibson needs to prove that he can be effective against MLB hitters.  He's proved that he can handle AAA hitters already, and this is the obvious next step.  Finding out if Gibson is a part of the long-term rotation is one of the more important potential discoveries this coming season.  Gibson should be an effective MLB starter but it could take him time to adjust to better hitters.  I'd prefer he does this during another lost season, rather than try to find his groove when team expectations are higher. 

1.  Terry Ryan

Who else?  Ryan made a surprise appearance in Fort Myers on Friday, just hours after receiving a radiation treatment at the Mayo Clinic.  Ryan planned to be in Fort Myers for just that day, but the fact that he is up for flying and visiting is a great sign.  He has a long road ahead of him, but it's super cool to see the Twins' GM fighting so strongly.  You can read a whole lot more about Terry Ryan from Mike Berardino's excellent Twinsights blog.  Just scroll down a bit as there are a few stories about Ryan's visit.  It was very cool to see just how much respect the Twins' players have for Ryan, who we often take for granted as one of the more prolific and respected GMs in baseball. 

That's all I have for today.  Next week, I'll have the final Power Rankings of the Spring.  In addition, at this time next week, we'll have actual for serious baseball to talk about!  As Wilson Phillips once said, "If you hoooooo-oooolld on, for one more day."  Then, just hold on for six more one days and you'll be set.  Have a great week, everyone!

Monday, March 17, 2014

Minnesota Twins Power Rankings: March 17, 2014

TWO MORE WEEKS!  We're getting closer and closer to real baseball and the Twins are getting closer and closer to finalizing their Opening Day 25-man roster.  The Twins cut 8 players over the weekend, most notably Danny Santana, who we will talk about later.  Last week, I put Jermaine Mitchell in the 10 spot of the Power Rankings, noting his impressive Spring and lamenting his chances of actually making the team.  I don't want to make the 10 spot a jinx spot, so we're going to start with someone who won't get cut.  At least not again...


Cut.  Get it?  Sano had successful Tommy John surgery this past week.  His surgery apparently went well and Sano is upbeat about the whole ordeal.  I read a chat with Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus last week and he pretty much said that this surgery does nothing to change Sano's future and ceiling.  He'll miss a year, which totally sucks, but he'll come back and continue his charge to Minnesota.  If his rehab goes well, he could be ready for DH duties in the Arizona Fall League. 

9.  Luke Bard

Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press had a great report with some Minor League updates.  You can read the full report here.  I was happy to see that Luke Bard is making good progress in his throwing program and could soon be ready for game action.  He had labrum surgery this offseason and because of that and other injuries, Bard has only thrown 19.1 professional innings since being drafted 42nd overall in 2012.  Bard was one of the linchpins of the Twins' strategy to convert college relievers to professional starters.  Bard has the stuff, but might not have the health.  However, he could still emerge as a solid bullpen arm and he's still just 23.    

I'm not one to get wrapped up in Spring stats.  I'm not one to get wrapped up in AAA stats.  I'm not one to call for a person's job.  All that said, I want Trevor Plouffe to lose his job to the impressive Spring and AAA performer, Deibinson Romero.  Maybe not, but I know that sentiment is going to start to spread.  Romero has outperformed Plouffe this Spring.  He's younger, he's a better fielder and he has better plate discipline.  All of those things are true, but in each case, only slightly.  Romero also does not have Plouffe's power and has never performed at the MLB level.  While you can look at the two on paper and make the determination that Romero should get his shot, I'm not sure much would be different in the end. 

This impressive Spring performer is playing his way into a job with the Twins.  Herrmann is hitting over .400 this Spring and he's started to add first base to his defensive repertoire.  The Twins just cut Eric Fryer and now have just four catchers in camp.  That includes blog favorite Dan Rohlfing, who I sentimentally hope will earn a spot.  Herrmann looks more and more likely to be the actual backup catcher though.  Kurt Suzuki appears to be the starter, Josmil Pinto needs more at-bats than he would get as the backup and Herrmann can play outfield when he isn't catching.  Of course, the only catcher hitting better than Herrmann is Pinto, who probably should be the starting catcher in 2014.  Herrmann isn't really competing with Pinto, and Suzuki doesn't appear to be competing with anyone.  Herrmann seems likely to be on the Twins this coming season. 

6.  Minnesota Twins Promotions

If you want an inside look at how the Twins' front office selects their promotions and fan giveaways, this is probably the worst place to click.  If you like poorly-written screenplays with characters who aren't fully-formed, then this is a great place to click.  If you hate comedy and you'd rather read about the 14 most important Twins in 2014, then you can click here.  Basically, click everywhere and read a bunch of stuff I wrote before today.

5.  Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana

With Pedro Florimon coming back on Monday, the Twins cut Santana so he could work on his defense in the Minors.  Santana was very impressive this Spring and appears confident that he'll be back in Minnesota within a couple of months (according to this Berardino report).  Eduardo Escobar has been as impressive as anyone, getting go-ahead hits in two games this weekend, handling shortstop like a champ and flashing a wonderful smile at every opportunity.  I outlined the Eddie 400 movement a few months ago and Escobar's Spring only reinforces everything I wrote at the time.  He should be the Twins' starting shortstop in April.  He won't be, but he should be.  If he falters, Santana could be ready.

More likely, Pedro Florimon will struggle through 500 PAs in 2014.  

I'm going to make some Twins-related predictions next week and I've already got Phil Hughes penciled in for some lofty stuff.  I wasn't high on Hughes when the offseason started.  I ranked him 11th among free agent starting pitchers and I didn't want the Twins to go near him.  When he signed, I did more research and found reasons to like him.  When I selected him as the 10th most important Twins player in 2014, I did even more research and liked him even more.  You can read those reasons if you click the links.  Hughes has looked good in limited work this Spring.  I think he's going to have his best season as a starter and that his free agent contract will look great by midseason.  If you want a more detailed prediction, well, you'll just have to wait until next week.  INTRIGUE!

3.  Sid Hartman

Ha!  A Sid bobblehead!  My ad-wizards didn't come up with that!  It's a cool idea and I have to admit that Sid's is the first bobblehead I've actually wanted.  This coincides with Sid Hartman Day at Target Field on May 18.  Sid has become a bit of a caricature (a fun one, in my opinion) at this point, but he's a legendary reporter in this market and he deserves his day. 

Colabello is going from "nice story" to "man, could this guy actually contribute?" in a hurry.  He has looked great this Spring and not just because he's grown his hair out.  He leads the Twins with 10 hits, he's hit 3 doubles and a home run and he's walked 6 times.  Colabello didn't impress me in 2013, but he did hit 7 home runs in limited at-bats.  He struck out a ton, but he was a rookie and he'd only played 89 games above AA.  The Twins don't have a lot of power and Colabello certainly does.  Jason Kubel has been terrible this Spring and might be washed up (although, Kubel is just a year-and-a-half older).  Could Colabello hit 25-30 home runs as a the regular DH?  I'll put it this way, I'd guess Colabello is more likely to do so than Kubel.  Doesn't that make him the guy?

Super-duper Congratulations to Glen Perkins for signing a well-earned extension last week.  Perkins will be a Twin through 2017, with a team option for 2018.  Here's a breakdown of his deal:

2014 - $4.025 million
2015 - $4.65 million
2016 - $6.3 million
2017 - $6.5 million
2018 - $6.5 million (team option)

Those numbers in 2014 and 2015 are extremely reasonable figures for a closer of Perkins' caliber.  They're actually reasonable numbers for a closer of a much lower caliber.  Even in 2016 and 2017, when Perkins will be 33 and 34, the dollars look good to me. 

I am not a big "closer" guy, but I know value when I see it.  I hated Joe Nathan's big contract, not because I disliked Nathan but because the contract seemed to help handcuff the Twins from addressing more important needs.  This contract will handcuff no one and ensure that the Twins have a very good closer for the next four seasons.  I am very confident in Perkins' abilities in that role and I'm happy that the Twins will be able to avoid putting too much money into that spot for the foreseeable future. 

Two more Power Rankings this Spring!  I've got AL Central previews coming all week, so keep your eyes peeled for some fat analysis.  Have a great week, everyone!

Monday, March 10, 2014

Minnesota Twins Power Rankings: March 10, 2014

We've had more than a week of Spring Training games, so we're fully engaged in "get excited about Spring Training stats mode."  We know in our heads that these stats mean less than nothing, but it's nearly impossible to hear about a giant home run or a three-inning scoreless start and not get just a little excited.  It's what separates us from the animals.  Seriously, go find a goat and tell him about Eduardo Escobar's doubles.  That goat won't care at all.  We care.  Let's rank.


Speaking of stats that don't really matter, Mitchell is currently hitting 4.000.  I'm unwilling to cross-check that figure, but it seems that every time Mitchell bats, he hits two home runs.  I won't look that up either.  Regardless of his actual stats (ed. note - .600/.625/1.400 in 8 PA, as of Saturday night), Mitchell is officially the Luke Hughes of 2014 Spring Training.  Mitchell's not a total bum and it would be fun to see him make his MLB debut at age 29, but he obviously isn't this good.  That said, he has performed very well and therefore, he's certainly earned his time in the sun. 

Guerrier faced real hitters this week, a massive step forward in his recovery from elbow surgery last August.  It's hard not to root for Guerrier, as he had some great seasons with the Twins and some really great hair with the Dodgers and Cubs.  Since leaving the Twins, Guerrier has had three decent-to-not so decent seasons.  He's had just a 93 ERA+ since 2010 and he's 35.  Even if he is unlikely to contribute quality innings to the Twins' bullpen in 2014, it would still be very cool to see him successfully complete his comeback.  He is a human, you know.

Last week, Colabello ranked 8th because of his hair.  This somehow lead to me positing that Joe Mauer would fight Ivan Drago to win back his first base job.  Yep.  Anyway, now I want to talk about Colabello as a player.  He's been great this Spring, flexing his power and getting on base.  I'm starting to like the idea of Colabello as a bench bat/back-up first baseman/emergency corner outfielder.  The Twins don't have much right-handed power and Colabello certainly has right-handed power. 

If the 5th outfielder job comes down to Colabello and Chris Parmelee, I might prefer Colabello.  Normally, I like the younger player, but I feel that I've seen enough Parmelee at this point.  Of course, Parmelee is out of options, so that actually works in his favor.  Parmelee is a far superior defender, so that works in his favor even more.  Plus, Parmelee can play first too.  You know what?  I'm not sure how I feel.  Can we keep them both?  Can we, Dad?

Guerra may always be haunted by the fact that he was the most enticing piece of the failed Johan Santana trade.  He hasn't lived up to the promise he held as an 18-year-old, but then, most of us don't.  Last year, Guerra only threw 4 innings, but those 4 innings had to be pretty sweet.  Last March, Guerra was diagnosed with a blood clot in his throwing shoulder and it got so bad that he had to be moved to intensive care at one point.  However, Guerra worked hard to recover and managed to throw those four innings in August.  Going into Sunday, Guerra has made two Spring appearances and looked pretty good.  While Guerra will never replace Santana, it would still be great to see Guerra contribute to the Twins' bullpen in 2014.  His ceiling has changed, but he could still have a productive MLB career. 

I'm an idiot.  You already know that, but I confirmed it on Friday in a mailbag I created with my wife.  She asked me who would have a baby this season and I didn't know.  I did some Googling and didn't find anything, so I blindly guessed Gibson because of his age.  Turns out, Gibson's wife literally had their first child a day or two before I made my awesome prediction.  I'm not sure how I missed this news and how I didn't find it when I Googled "Kyle Gibson having a baby," but I realized my mistake on Saturday and felt like an idiot.  Oh well, congratulations to Gibson and his wife on their new baby!  In a way, I totally called it.

Vargas is now getting advice from the guy he keeps getting compared to!  David Ortiz has taken "Baby Papi" under his mighty wing.  It's a fun story, as many hope that Vargas can become the next Ortiz.  Obviously, there is only a tiny chance that Vargas becomes the next Ortiz, but in reality, there was a pretty tiny chance that Ortiz would become "Big Papi" as well.  Vargas is a big human with massive power, but he might be miles and miles from the Majors.  I like prospects because of their promise and the allure of what could be.  The idea of getting a second chance at "Big Papi" is pretty alluring.  I have a feeling that many Twins fans feel exactly the same way.

If you are not familiar with Taylor, the Prospect Octopus, you might not be aware of my affinity for catching prospects.  Well, I'm here to tell you that I love 'em!  Turner was the Twins' third-round pick last June and he's a glove-first catcher and I think I love him too.  Don't immediately think of Drew Butera just because I said glove-first.  Turner is a big man and he hit well in college.  He's getting some tutelage from Terry Steinbach this Spring, according to this report.  Not a bad mentor.  He'll be heading to Low-A Cedar Rapids this Spring.  If you want to see some excellent catcher defense, there are worse places to go than Iowa.  

3.  Eduardo Escobar

Escobar is having a weird Spring.  He's hitting for power, but his OBP is actually lower than his batting average, which is not easy to do.  Mostly everything else is going in his favor though.  Jason Bartlett hasn't hit this Spring and Pedro Florimon hasn't played because of his appendectomy.  Thus, Escobar is getting mad playing time and hitting mad doubles.  I feel strongly that Escobar would be a more productive hitter than Florimon.  I think his defense is roughly as good as Florimon's too.  You know where I'm going with all this...



Of course, this middle infielder might be pushing for a #Danny400 campaign.  Santana has looked great this Spring.  He's been the best hitter of the middle infielders and he's showing off the speed that makes him a natural shortstop and an intriguing prospect.  Last season, I remember hearing Paul Molitor say that Santana was still two years away from the Majors.  Molitor also raved about Santana and how good he could be.  Now, Santana has another fan in Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire.  You can read all about it in Mike Berardino's report.  We all know how fixated Gardy can get with slappy middle infielders.  Of course, Santana could be worth his fixation. 

1.  Johan Santana

The Orioles signed Santana last week, crushing my little child-like dreams.  I really wanted Santana to come back to Minnesota, but it was not meant to be.  Santana chose to sign with a "contender" in the Orioles.  I don't think they will be contending for much of anything, but I can see why Santana would think they were further along than the Twins.  I'm happy for Santana as I just want to see him continue his career.  He's one of my favorite players of all-time and it would be a shame if he threw his last game at age 32.  I hope he makes a full recovery and the Twins sign him next Winter. 

Now that we're all on the same page, we can get back to our Spring Training stats binge.  This week, at least one player will have an epic game and we'll all get unreasonably excited.  That's why we're fans.  Unless you prefer to hang out with that goat we talked about earlier.  That's your problem.  Have a great week, everyone!