Projecting the Hall of Fame Part II???

On Wednesday, I took on the impossible task of projecting careers in progress to determine who will make it into the Hall of Fame in the future.  If you missed it, here you go.  Today, I'm taking it a step further and looking at players who aren't even eligible because they don't have ten years of service time.  I did this last year too, and you can read that here.  This is basically an update, as some players from last year have improved or hurt their standing.

Let's get it.

Aging Well... - Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, and Adam Wainwright

Last year, I mentioned that each of these three pitchers was having a great career, but might be too old to build a Hall of Fame case.  I added the caveat that if they age well, I could end up being wrong.  So far, each is aging pretty well.  Wainwright is particularly interesting because he'll probably get some grace from the voters because he started his career as a successful closer and he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball right now.  If any of these three pitchers can maintain their current levels through age 35 or so, they become really interesting. 

Too Old V2

This group hasn't reached the required ten seasons but each player is over 30.  As such, they might not have enough time to build a longevity HOF career along the lines of Tom Glavine or Craig Biggio.  We'll keep these brief.

Ian Kinsler - Kinsler probably isn't good enough for a true Hall of Fame case anyway, but he's had a really nice, under-the-radar career.  He has good power, good speed, he makes good contact, he draws some walks and he's just a really balanced player.  His defense is either good or great depending on the metric.  If he ages well, he'll have a nice 50+ WAR career and he'll get some HOF votes.

Ryan Braun - The steroid issue is probably more relevant than his age.  I can't imagine he'll get much love when he becomes eligible.  He's still a good hitter, although it has been two seasons since he's been an outstanding hitter.  He has an uphill climb for things like All-Star appearances and year-end award votes and those things matter to the writers and voters. 

Joey Votto - I refuse to believe that this season is anything more than a blip on the radar.  His batting average is 55 points below his career figure, but so is his BABIP.  I imagine he'll bounce back next season (or in the second half of this season).  He has a career 153 OPS+, which is just insane.  However, the narrative surrounding his plate discipline is going to eat him alive when columns about his Hall of Fame candidacy are written.  It will be completely unfair and maybe we'll be past things like that by then, but despite his elite OBP skills, he's going to be a tough sell for a lot of people.

Hanley Ramirez - Ramirez is an odd choice for this category because he became a regular when he was 22.  However, he dropped off so much from 2010-2012 that it's almost like he debuted at 25.  He's back to being a good hitter, but he isn't the generational hitter that he appeared to be when he was actually 25.  Plus, his defense at short is not great.  Even so, he's young and performing well, so you never know. 

Young, Transcendent Talent

Mike Trout

Trout already owns a Rookie of the Year award, an All-Star Game MVP award, two second place MVP finishes, two Silver Sluggers, 25 WAR, a career OPS+ of 169, a great Subway campaign and...wait, why am I even bothering, he's Mike Trout!  That's all you need to know.  He's the best player in baseball and he's only 22!! 

I find it extremely hard to believe that this guy isn't in the Hall of Fame come 2035 or 2040 or whenever he becomes eligible.  If he has just two more seasons like the one he's having, he'll be at 50 WAR by age 25.  Here's the list of guys who have done that in MLB history:

• Mickey Mantle
• Ty Cobb

I'd say that's solid company.  If he does that, he can coast the rest of the way to Cooperstown.  There's going to be some Trout backlash at some point and it's going to look like comedy in hindsight.  Enjoy this guy because we don't see players like Trout very often. 

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw has an ERA under 2 since the start of 2013.  Since his rookie season (when he was 20!!!!), Kershaw's ERA is 2.37.  That's six seasons.  That's 1184.2 innings!  He is a monster player.  He has two Cy Young Awards and is comfortably working on his third.  He has led the NL in ERA and WHIP for the past four seasons.  His WHIP is under 1 since 2011.  That's 809.1 innings with fewer than one runner on base, on average. 

The best way I can describe Kershaw is that he's "Pitcher Mike Trout."  Except, Kershaw came first, so maybe Trout is "Batter Clayton Kershaw."  Either way, we need to get these two into the same league so they can face off more often. 

Looking Like Locks

Felix Hernandez

I made King Felix's Hall of Fame case when I was trying to make his 2014 AL Cy Young case a few weeks back.  Why don't you just check that out because if you don't see his candidacy by just looking at his stats, then maybe some bullet lists will help you.

Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki

The two best players in the National League.  One will win the 2014 MVP, the other will finish second.  Both guys play premium defensive positions and both guys are complete hitters.  Tulowitzki's a little older and has dealt with injuries.  McCutchen's defense doesn't match up to Tulowitzki's.  Both guys are on the Hall of Fame path and seem to be somehow getting better as well. 

??? - The category that has no category

Evan Longoria

What's going on, Longo?  Can I call you Longo?  Everyone can have an "down season" or two, but how many players have one at age 28.  Are you doing a Hanley Ramirez impression?  If so, I'd stop it.  Unlike Votto, there isn't a way to explain his decline with a luck-based stat.  His power is just not there in 2014.  Unfortunately, without power, the low contact he's often carried really sticks out.  His defense has been elite just once in the past three seasons, so he can't fall back on that anymore either. 

If this is just a one-year dip, then I still think he has a pretty decent HOF candidacy.  However, if this is some harbinger of a decline, then he wasn't Trouty enough before to have already made a case. 

Salvador Perez

I'm not sure where to put Perez just yet, so we'll just stick him here.  His defense is sublime.  He's smooth, he's agile, his arm a weapon and he handles the intangibles of the position extremely well.  Second, he's got some massive power in his bat and it's going to emerge.  Remember, catchers almost always develop the bat after the glove. 

His OPS has dipped in each of his four seasons and he does play for the Royals, so bad things can happen.  However, I think he can overcome everything, even the Royals-ness.  If he wins an MVP in the next five years, I won't be surprised at all.  I'm infatuated.

I get that these guys are all super young, but we NEED to plan ahead.  If we don't, we might get into a situation where we don't know the stats and narratives required to vote for these players.  If that happens, the Hall of Fame could cease to exist.  That would be a tragedy!  Please understand, I am simply doing my part.  Have a nice weekend, everyone!

Projecting the Hall of Fame???

The Hall of Fame inductions for 2014 were this past weekend and whenever that time comes I always start to think about the current players who might be inducted down the line.  Last year, I wrote about a multitude of players who I think have a decent or better Hall of Fame case.  I am basically updating that list, along with some new names who emerged or became eligible this season.  Tomorrow, I plan to write about younger players who aren't eligible just yet. 

I'm not going to write about everyone though.  Basically, if I think they are in the same boat as they were at this time last year, I'm not even addressing them.  If you want to take a look back, here you go:

Qualified Players 
Non-Qualified Players

As is customary, I have divided the players into some crude groups for your ease. 

Not Quite, But Notable

Much like last year, these are players who could conceivably get a few votes when they hit the ballot and might even stay on the ballot for a year or two.  They might even become the pet cause of a given sportswriter.  We'll keep things brief with these four. 

Torii Hunter - Twins fans have the unique perspective of having seen Hunter as a young player, when he was a little out of control, but extremely fun to watch.  His plate discipline improved over time and he aged extremely well.  He's your prototypical "Hall of Very Good" player but he can take solace in knowing that he is a lock for the Twins' Hall of Fame. 

Jimmy Rollins - Depending on how long he plays, Rollins could get some real "counting stat" love.  Plus, he has an MVP under his belt.  That said, he has a career OPS+ of 97 and his defense wasn't transcendent enough to compensate. 

Cliff Lee - I think he has a "late bloomer" reputation, but he did win 18 games when he was 26.  Lee is the premier command pitcher of this era, but his career ERA+ is only 118, he's 35 and nowhere near 200 wins. 

Mark Teixeira - Hall of Fame name spelling difficulty and he runs weird, so those things need to be considered.  He is not aging well and he's basically an all-power guy at this point.  If he can somehow reverse that aging curve, he could get close based on counting stats, but 500 home runs appears to be too far away right now.  Without that number, I'm not sure he gets much consideration. 

Better Chance Than Last Year

These players were all profiled last year, but they have improved their Hall of Fame stock since that time.  Actually, there is one exception...

Bobby Abreu

Abreu wasn't active last year, so I didn't include him.  I would have likely tried to make a strong case for Abreu, as I think he has had a really underrated career.  His career .291/.395/.475 batting line translates to a 128 OPS+.  Anyone who avoids outs nearly 40% of the time catches my eye.  Plus, he had good power and speed.  He was never a good defender and he didn't play a premium position.  He didn't really hit like a traditional right fielder, although that doesn't bother me. 

His peak was truly impressive.  From 1998 to 2004, here are his rWARs:  6.4, 6.1, 6.2, 5.2, 5.8, 5.3, 6.5.  Somehow, he didn't make an All-Star team until 2004 and he only made two All-Star teams in his career.  He'll finish his career with just under 300 home runs, just under 600 doubles, just under 2500 hits and just over 400 stolen bases.  He had a wonderful career.    

Even as a strong pro-Abreu guy, I still think he falls short.  His peak was great, but he never topped 3.9 rWAR in any other season and he didn't reach any big, round, impressive numbers. 

Tim Hudson

Hudson is having one of his finest seasons at age 38 coming off of a nasty ankle injury that made me call for that weird orange base that we all use in slow-pitch.  Considering how well he is pitching this season, it seems somewhat reasonable that he'll pitch well next season.  If he can make it through the 2016 season, he has a pretty decent shot at 250 career wins.  As far as pitcher wins go, 250 might be the new 300.  He's the active wins leader and we all know that big, round numbers elevate a Hall of Fame case. 

I still don't think he makes it, but coming back from last season's injury with this much success is certainly a positive.

Mark Buehrle

Buehrle isn't a great candidate, but he has a case.  His career ERA is in Jack Morris territory.  While he's won a lot of games, he's also lost a lot of games.  He's not a strikeout pitcher.  Of course, if you want to make a meta Hall of Fame argument for Buehrle, that might be where you focus.  See, he was able to have a ton of success without great stuff, right?  Maybe that proves that he's a better pitcher than the stats show?  There's a narrative to be built, but I don't have the strength.  He's had a great career; that's enough. 

Zack Greinke

Greinke's an odd choice too.  He had that one amazing season in 2009, but he's never been elite in any other season.  He was great last year, but he only threw 177 innings.  He's been great so far this season, not coincidentally his second All-Star season.  Greinke has a long way to go, but he's in the right place to make a run.  Dodger Stadium has helped many pitchers perform above their heads.  Greinke will be in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future.  It wouldn't be surprising to see him turn in a few excellent seasons before he hits 33.  If that happens, he might have a surprisingly solid HOF app (application not iOS app). 

Worse Chance Than Last Year

CC Sabathia

I was pretty high on Sabathia's chances last year, as I had only Roy Halladay and Adrian Beltre ahead of him on my non-locks list.  However, he's been pretty bad since about June of last season and he's now out for all of 2014.  Of course, he'll only be 34 next year and he has over 200 wins already.  Plus, he plays in one of the biggest markets and gets a ton of attention.  I think his chances are worse than they were at this time last year, but I still think he's in a pretty decent position if he can rebound in 2015. 

Still Young(ish), But It's Not Looking Good - Joe Mauer, David Wright, Justin Verlander and Dustin Pedroia

Yep, four guys in one paragraph.  Last year, I would have argued that Mauer and Verlander were borderline locks and that Wright and Pedroia could join them with just 2-3 more good seasons.  This would have been massively premature, as shown by the fact that each of these players is struggling in 2014, putting their "Hall" chances in jeopardy.  Mauer isn't catching (or hitting for that matter), Verlander isn't striking out batters as prolifically and Wright and Pedroia suddenly have zero power.  Each of these players is over 30 and in the decline phase of their career.  Without a post-30 renaissance, they are all headed for the Hall of Very Good. 

Locks

Miguel Cabrera

I don't think this is premature.  Cabrera is having a down season in which he's batting .309/.364/.531.  He's put together an impressive 12-year career and he's only 31.  He's won two MVPs, a triple crown and he's made 9 All-Star teams.  Unless the wheels really fall off, he's a lock for 3000 hits and 500 home runs.  Don't believe me?  If he can play just 140 games over the next four seasons and hit about .300, he'll have about 2950 hits.  Even if he's in severe decline by then, I think he can piece together 50 more hits. 

Unless something shady is involved, there's simply no way a player with 3000 hits, 500 home runs, two MVPs, a triple crown and 10+ All-Star selections is not in the Hall of Fame.  He's 18th in JAWS rankings for 3rd basemen, and he should have no issues getting into the top 12 within a couple more seasons.  He's a lock. 

Adrian Beltre

Of course, Cabrera isn't a third baseman any longer.  Beltre is and he ranks 8th among all-time 3rd basemen by JAWS.  I'm completely in on Adrian Beltre, Hall of Famer.  Last year, I waffled and decided that I didn't think he was a lock just yet.  Now, I think he's a lock and I'll go on the fake record.

He's in the middle of his 8th 5+ WAR season.  He's one of the best defensive third basemen of all-time.  Sure, his numbers dipped like crazy in Seattle, but now we're finding that seems to happen to a lot of guys.  In the five seasons since he left Seattle, he has a 138 OPS+.  He has over 2500 hits, over 500 doubles, over 1300 RBI and he'll get to 400 home runs by the end of this season.  He's just 35 as well. 

Some would argue that he needs anywhere from 1-3 more seasons like his past five, but I'm ready to vote for him right now.  I think the defense is the kicker.  It's not just that he's a great defender, he's one of the best ever.  The Hall of Fame is all about recognizing the best ever.  Beltre's a lock in my book.

If we're looking at active players who will be in the Hall of Fame one day, I think there are five locks:  Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Beltre and Cabrera.  The first three should have no difficulties, Cabrera probably needs just two or three more good seasons and Beltre should be in so long as he can maintain 80% of his current level of production through the end of his current contract. 

Some of the other guys on this list will age well and join those five.  Some will never be mentioned in their breath again.  Some guys who I will write about tomorrow might have even better cases.  Ah, intrigue!  Check back Friday for more Hall of Fame nonsense analysis!

Minnesota Twins POWER RANKINGS: January 27, 2014

Major shake-ups this week in the K-Slow POWER RANKINGS.  Our four-week number one is plummeting down the list because he is a freaking Judas and I hate him.  That's not true.  I don't know him, but he did betray me and the POWER RANKINGS and the entire state of hockey.  On the bright side, I don't have to retire the top spot forever.  Let's get to the rankin'.

10.  Masahiro Tanaka

Tanaka, you could have had it all.  I promised you the top spot in these rankings until you signed with the Twins, then I was going to retire the top spot in your honor.  Instead, you signed with the Yankees, meaning that 29 fan bases will loathe you, regardless of how cool you may be.  Oh, and good luck with that strikeout rate.  I notice it has dipped in each of your past three seasons.  Oh, but I'm sure it will jump back up as you transition to a much better league against much better hitters. 

I'm not bitter though.  Missing out on Tanaka could pave the way for a reunion with a high-strung pitcher with a spitting problem.

9.  Matt Garza

Crud.  Garza has reportedly agreed to a four-year deal with the Brewers.  The deal was reportedly done earlier in the week, but was reportedly finalized this weekend.  It is reportedly worth $50 million, or just a couple million more than the Twins paid for Ricky Nolasco.  Twins fans were reportedly upset, because the perception is that Garza is significantly better than Nolasco.  The peripheral stats might be close, but actual performance goes to Garza.  

I've seen some sentiment that the Twins should have signed Garza instead of Mike Pelfrey, as if the two are somehow related.  I tweeted that I wish the Twins had not moved to the Metrodome in 1982 and instead signed Garza.  That makes no sense, but as far as I am concerned, it makes just as much sense as trying to equate not signing Garza with signing Pelfrey.  Or maybe it isn't.  I haven't slept in days.  Of course, the reality is that the Twins still have tons of money to spend, so maybe they'll open up the pocketbook and upgrade a different position.

8.  Stephen Drew

Apparently, the Yankees are considering Drew.  Whatever, they already have all the other players.  There were some reports earlier in the month that indicated that Drew might need to take a one-year deal or move to second base or even third base.  And yet, the Twins still have Pedro Florimon penciled in at short for 2014 and some fat wads of cash just chilling in the basement of Target Field.  If you went to TwinsFest, you should have went down there.  Drew would be an offensive upgrade at short and is still pretty young. 

I had written previously that I would not sign Drew, but a lot of that had to do with a Tanaka/Garza pipe dream that appears to have ended.  Now, I'd go grab Drew, tell him he can stay at short, give him some of the cash wads and improve the offense.  Of course...

7.  The Eddie 400

The Eddie 400 picked up some mainstream steam this week, appearing on the front page of Twins Daily.  The post generated an impressive three comments, two of which appeared to in support of the campaign.  I've been horrible at promoting this idea of the past few weeks.  I had actually forgotten about it myself until I saw it on Twins Daily.  If you need a refresher, here's The Eddie 400, in all its glory. 

6.  Grant Balfour

In the inaugural edition of these rankings, I wrote about how Balfour was lucky to have failed his physical with the Orioles because the whole city of Baltimore smells like crab cakes.  I did later learn that this is not true, but Balfour ended up on his feet in the end.  Last week, he signed a two-year deal with the Rays and will take over as their closer/intense Aussie.  Without looking, how old do you think Balfour is?

36.  Did you think he was that old?  He looks great.

5.  Andrew Albers

The Twins were thwarted in their attempt to sell Chris Colabello to Korea for some fast cash.  They almost certainly would have used that cash to sign Tanaka, but Colabello had to be a real sick in the mud and want to stay in this country.  In an ironic twist (irony more in the way that everyone but English majors use it), the Twins lost Andrew Albers to the Hanwha Eagles in South Korea.  Albers was unlikely to be in the Twins rotation, at least to start the 2014 season, but he was a nice story last year and he did pitch relatively well with the Twins.  Ah well.    

4.  Kurt Suzuki

So this tweet pissed me off:

Terry Ryan said he's not sure yet who will back up Kurt Suzuki at catcher. Pinto, Herrmann, Fryer all options. #MNTwins
— Tyler Mason (@FSNtylermason) January 24, 2014

Nothing against Mason, he does a fine job.  Nothing against Suzuki really either, I just don't think he should be a starting catcher for any team that has ambitions of playing MLB baseball.  He's a fine backup and I liked his signing when I thought he would in fact back up and mentor Josmil Pinto.  As a starter, he's going to hit poorly, meaning the Twins will have at least two poor hitters in their lineup on a regular basis.  Of course, Pedro Florimon is good at defense, so he has some value.  Does Suzuki have defensive value?

3.  jorgenswest

Nope, Suzuki does not have defensive value.  An excellent post from Twins Daily member jorgenswest pretty much denies any narrative that indicates Suzuki's positive defensive prowess.  He's a poor pitch framer and pitchers seem to get worse when he catches.  You should read his post for more detail/analysis.

I am a big fan of jorgenswest's work.  I consider jorgenswest to be Twins Daily's pitch framing expert and his posts are insightful and highly analytical.  He doesn't blog too often, but he's a regular in the forums and provides great analysis using analytics in his forum posts. 

2.  Byron Buxton

Buxton was named MLB Network and MLB.com's number 1 overall prospect.  I could have written that sentence two months ago, long before the list was announced.  Buxton's placement was a foregone conclusion.  He's the best prospect in baseball and one of the best prospects of all-time.  According to Jim Callis of MLB.com, Buxton is a better prospect than Mike Trout was:

Buxton, Trout, Moore, Profar. @ndbrian: Rank the last four years number 1 prospects if they were all in the same rankings #mlbpipeline . . .
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) January 24, 2014

Buxton's lore just keeps expanding.  Twins fans shouldn't have to wait long until Buxton starts his MLB lore.

Update!  He was also named Baseball Prospectus' number 1 overall prospect this morning.  What a man!  

1.  Chuck Knoblauch

Knoblauch was elected to the Twins Hall of Fame this past week.  He is a very deserving choice, as he provided the Twins with 37.8 rWAR over seven seasons as a good offensive and defensive second baseman.  He is one of the best players in franchise history and an exciting player in his prime.  Knoblauch's tenure with the Twins ended famously, but time heals all wounds.  I, for one, cannot wait until his induction:

Oh man, I'm going to throw so many batteries at Chuck Knoblauch when he gets inducted.
— Brad Swanson (@bridman77) January 24, 2014

Some people just can't let go.  In case you're seething right now, I was kidding.  I recycle my batteries.  Have a great week, everyone!

Brad Swanson doesn't know what power rankings are.  He is most proud of his 100% accurate semi-colon use.  He also buys a donut at the gas station 100% of the time.

2014 Hall of Fame Results Analysis

Today is the day.  It has to be.  Today is the day that I analyze the 2014 Hall of Fame voting results.  I did this last year to much acclaim (from myself).  If you missed it, it's a year old and right here.  I also filled out a ballot that I never mailed in or was asked to mail in.  It's moot now and you can read it right here.  Enough shameless self-promotion, let's dance.

Let's get the riff-raff out of the way first.

Riff-Raff

No Votes - Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Todd Jones, Paul Lo Duca, Richie Sexson, Mike Timlin.

Casey is loud on MLB Network, but mostly enjoyable.  Durham was good.  Todd Jones hated Minnesota.  LoDuca and Timlin don't evoke any memories for me.  Sexson was called "Big Sexy."

1 vote each - Armando Benitez, Jacque Jones, Kenny Rogers

Two former Twins and one guy I completely forgot about.  I knew a guy who would chant "Jacque Jones is soooooooooooo good" while at Twins games.  He was kind of wrong.  Kenny Rogers once nearly punched a cameraman and shoved him down to the ground like a bully.  I hope the guy who voted for him didn't vote for Bonds and Clemens.

2 votes each - Eric Gagne and J.T. Snow

Gagne holds the most consecutive saves record and Snow once saved a toddler's life while scoring a run.  Each is worth about two votes, so we're cool here.

5 votes - Luis Gonzalez

I thought there was an outside chance that Gonzalez would stay on the ballot with 5%.  He got 5 votes.  Career fWAR for Gonzalez:  55.3.  Fred McGriff:  57.2.  Seems like a smaller than 62 vote difference here, but what do I know. 

6 votes each - Hideo Nomo and Moises Alou

If this were the Hall of Famous or the Hall of Impact, I think Nomo would be deserving.  Nomo basically had four above-average seasons, it just happened that two of those seasons were his first two seasons.  Alou peed on his hands.  His own hands, not Nomo's.

25 votes - Rafael Palmeiro

Palmeiro is the only member of the 500 home run and 3000 hit club to fall of the ballot in just four tries.  His exaggerated finger-wag may be too strongly entrenched in our brains.

Still on the ballot

Sammy Sosa

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 12.5%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 7.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 2

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Nope

Sosa was weird.  He had massive power, but didn't get on base very well.  He had some speed early in his career and played the outfield pretty well too.  All I really remember of Sosa is home runs.  He hit a lot of home runs.  Ten years ago, his 609 home runs might have gotten him elected on the first ballot.  Now, they won't be enough.  The steroid cloud is an ominous one. 

Don Mattingly

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 13.2%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 8.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 14

Would I vote for him? - No

Will he get in? - No

I'm actually surprised he's hung on this long.  I love Don Mattingly.  I love his nickname (The Hit Man) and I loved his mustache.  He was a dominant player at his peak.  Truly destructive.  He really needed a backiotomy though.  Perhaps he will have an illustrious managerial career and enter in that manner.  I'd be cool with that.  Again, I love him.

Larry Walker

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 21.6%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 10.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 5

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Doubt it

This is ludicrous.  Walker is probably getting double penalized for the "steriod era" and the "Coors Field Effect."  Walker hit .322/.394/.587 in his last season with Montreal.  I'm sure Coors Field helped him a bit, but that 151 OPS+ in 1994 proves that he was a dynamic hitter, regardless of the park.  He posted that line while hitting just 19 home runs.  No player since Walker's retirement has posted an OPS+ that high with fewer than 20 home runs.

Walker wasn't just an over-the-fence player.  He was a serviceable outfielder with a killer arm who could hit, get on base and mash ding-dongs (homers, not the food).  He finished his career with 69.0 fWAR, more than Willie McCovey, Robin Yount, and Harmon Killebrew, just to name a few.  Plus, he accumulated more WAR than a bunch of guys who will appear later in this post.  He might fall off the ballot completely next year.  It's a shame that two factors he had no control over (era and ballpark) are clearly being used against him. 

Mark McGwire

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 16.9%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 11.0%

# of Years on Ballot - 8

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - No

Remember when he hit his 62nd home run and celebrated with Sosa and they each did their little celebration gesture?  They did that fist-punch then stomach-punch combo and then they both did the double-time peace sign-kiss deal.  Yeah, I remember thinking that was lame when I was 16.  Everything was lame then.  Those were the days.  McGwire was an excellent power hitter and I would vote for him if given the chance.  I think Walker was a better player, so at least the voters are being somewhat consistent. 

Fred McGriff

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 20.7%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 11.7%

# of Years on Ballot - 5

Would I vote for him? - No

Will he get in? - No

I like McGriff.  I like the Crime Dog.  I like his plain, light blue t-shirt in the fielding video promos.  I like his tall hat.  I like him; I don't love him.  I honestly wonder if he would have received more votes if he had stuck around and hit seven more home runs.  The 500 club isn't working for McGwire or Sosa, but it might have moved the needle for McGriff, who seems to be above steroid suspicion.  It's an interesting thought.  If we ever learn how to change history, this should be the first thing we do. 

Jeff Kent

Percentage of votes in 2013 - N/A

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 15.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 1

Would I vote for him? - No

Will he get in? - Hard to Say

Not a bad debut for Kent, actually.  I thought he might fall off the ballot completely.  Kent was petulant and he has the steroid cloud around him.  He's been doing the side part thing with his hair for a decade or so now, so that's something.  As a baseball player, Kent was an excellent offensive player, especially as a second baseman.  His defensive numbers are schizophrenic, but he was good enough to stay the position for many years.  He has an MVP.  By WAR, he doesn't quite match up to guys around him in this post.  He fits more with McGriff and Gonzalez, rather than McGwire and Sosa.  I'd say that Kent isn't as good as Bobby Grich or Lou Whitaker.  He's not as good as Chase Utley.   He was always good and occasionally great.  I'm not sure that's a Hall of Famer. 

Mike Mussina

Percentage of votes in 2013 - N/A

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 20.3%

# of Years on Ballot - 1

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yes, but it might take some time.

Wait, what?  20.3%?  That seems very low.  I'll assume that the crowded ballot was his undoing because I can't see any reason why someone would vote for Jack Morris and not Mussina.  Mussina was better than Jack Morris in just about every way possible.  In fact, here's a chart:

Stat	Mussina	Morris	Advantage
Wins	270	254	Moose
Losses	153	186	Moose
ERA	3.68	3.9	Moose
ERA+	123	105	Moose
K%	19.3	15.4	Moose
BB%	5.4	8.6	Moose
GS	536	527	Moose
IP	3562.2	3824	Morris
CG	57	175	Morris
Mustaches	0	1	Morris
Game 7 10 IP W	0	1	Morris

So Morris gets Mussina on two categories that are basically irrelevant, but one that is cited frequently.  Morris was also a consistent Opening Day starter, whatever that means.  Mussina wins all the measures that show true pitcher talent.  Morris pitched longer and finished more games.  He also played in a different era so I'm not sure comparing complete games is apt.  It's not as though Morris has thousands of innings more than Mussina either.  Mussina actually started more games.  Morris got 235 more votes.

This is not intended to be an indictment of Morris.  But, since Morris is now off the ballot (more on that later), all the Morris voters have a spot open.  If you LOOOOOOOVE Morris so much, why not fill the void with some Mussina?

Alan Trammell

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 33.6%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 20.8%

# of Years on Ballot - 13

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Doesn't look promising

Come on.  Here's a hidden player trick:

Player A - .285/.342/.430, OPS+ - 115, 1 Gold Glove, 77.1 rWAR in 20 seasons

Player B - .285/.352/.415, OPS+ - 110, 4 Gold Gloves, 70.3 rWAR in 20 seasons

Pretty similar, right?  Player A is first-ballot Hall of Famer Robin Yount.  Player B is Mr. Trammell, struggling to get 20% on his 13th ballot.  What am I missing here?  Is 15 points of slugging creating this dramatic difference?  Trammell won a World Series.  That's important, right?  Maybe voters are suppressing him on purpose so he and double play partner Lou Whitaker can be elected together by the Veterans' Committee.  Other than that, I have no idea why Trammell gets basically no love.

Edgar Martinez

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 35.9%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 25.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 5

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yes, because we live in a just World

Before I start, let me just say that I think Frank Thomas is a monster.  Not like Frankenstein, like a baseball monster sent to destroy baseballs.  This is why I am using Thomas as a comparison here. 

Thomas - .301/.419/.555 - 156 OPS+, 73.6 rWAR, 59.2% of his games played at DH

Martinez - .312/.418/.515 - 147 OPS+, 68.3 rWAR, 71.2% of his games played at DH

Not as far apart as you probably thought.  Thomas had more power and faked his defense a little longer, but otherwise, not very different.    

"Yeah, but Martinez wasn't even the best player on his own team.  Ken Griffey Jr. was."

Fine, but imagine a World where Frank Thomas is drafted by the Mariners.  He'd be in Griffey's shadow too.  Would that have made him a less dangerous player?  Does that make him an inferior hitter?  Why does his team matter at all?  This is an individual honor. 

"Yeah, but Thomas won two MVPs and Edgar won zero."

Ok, but you can make a pretty compelling case for Martinez in 1995.  He led the league with a 185 OPS+ but Mo Vaughn won the award because he hit more home runs and the Red Sox won the AL East.  Basically, the writers screwed up.  It's not their fault.  However, voting for Martinez for the HOF can help rectify that mistake.  Don't double punish him for your inability to recognize his value now and then.

Even though Thomas is better than Martinez, there's enough Hall to go around.  There's simply no reason why more than 300 voters thought Thomas was deserving but Edgar was not.   

Curt Schilling

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 38.8%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 29.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 2

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yes, but not until the 2020s.

I can at least understand why he doesn't get more votes.  Mussina has the counting stats, so his lack of votes is confusing.  You have to look harder to see Schilling's case, but once you do, I think you'll appreciate the greatness.  127 ERA+, 216 wins, tons of strikeouts and a lot of postseason success.  He was an integral part of 3 championship teams.  That kind of stuff is usually enticing to the writers, but not with Schilling.  At least not yet.  Schilling was brash and outspoken, so maybe that rubbed people the wrong way.  His percentage didn't drop as much as other players, so maybe he's picking up relative support and will get in when the ballot is a bit clearer.

If the 216 wins aren't enough for you, just add his 11 postseason wins and call it 227.  There, now he has 3 more than Hall of Famer Catfish Hunter.  We can call him Catfish Schilling, if that works for you.  Just appreciate Schilling's greatness.  

Lee Smith

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 47.8%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 29.9%

# of Years on Ballot - 12

Would I vote for him? - Only if paid; I can be bought

Will he get in? - No, because we live in a just World

I can't believe he persisted on the ballot for this long.  Close your eyes and picture Joe Nathan.  Joe Nathan is excellent.  He's much better than Lee Smith.  Joe Nathan will probably get fewer than 5% of the vote on his first try.  Lee Smith was fine, he's nowhere near the Hall of Fame.  He's officially been on the ballot 12 times longer than Kenny Lofton. 

Barry Bonds

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 36.2%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 34.7%

# of Years on Ballot - 2

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yeah, I think he might.

Roger Clemens

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 37.6%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 35.4%

# of Years on Ballot - 2

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yeah, I think he might.

I'll just go ahead and put these two together as they will basically be forever linked.  Clemens received 4 extra votes and I'll go ahead and assume those votes are based on the thought that pitching was less affected by PEDs.  I'd hate to think it was a public image thing or a race thing. 

Interestingly, both of these two actually gained support this year, something that only Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio can also boast.  It's odd, but maybe the steroid issue is going to clear up a bit.  If most guys are losing 5-15% of their votes, then staying flat might actually be a good thing.  The fact that they didn't go backward is encouraging for their cases.  Time heals all wounds, as is said.

Tim Raines

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 52.2%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 46.1%

# of Years on Ballot - 7

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yes, by a whisker

Raines slipped under 50%, which is brutal, but not surprising.  With all the shiny new candidates, he was bound to lose some votes.  He's a fringe candidate in some eyes, so it makes sense that he would be left off some new ballots.  In fact, I wouldn't include him in my ten this year either.  However, I do think he is a Hall of Fame player and I do think he gets in one day.  He was a dynamic and destructive player, especially at his peak.  He'll probably hover around 50% for a few more years, but the sure-fire HOF players won't come in droves forever and Raines will be around long enough to get his day.

Jeff Bagwell

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 59.6%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 54.3%

# of Years on Ballot - 4

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yes

Bagpipes!  I always called him Bagpipes.  I actually thought Bagwell might get in this year, but instead he appears to have fell victim to the CROWDED BALLOTOCOLYPSE!  Bagwell is a no-brainer and if he wasn't all biceps, he'd probably be in already.  That said, there is research that shows that once a candidate gets to 50%, they pretty much get in.  Therefore, Bagwell will wait a bit longer, but ultimately get in down the road.  Just don't talk about the 50% thing with this next guy...

Jack Morris

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 67.7%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 61.5%

# of Years on Ballot - 15

Would I vote for him? - No

Will he get in? - Yes, via the Veterans' Committee

Morris was well over 50% and he didn't get in.  That said, he's a near lock to be elected by a group of his peers who will no doubt appreciate his toughness, grit, tenacity, strength and resilience, even though those are all basically the same thing.  I would not vote for Morris, but if he had gotten in, I would have been happy.  I like him.  He pitched Game 7 of the '91 World Series!  That is one of my most treasured memories as a Twins fan.  So, the system works in this case, but Morris will get his day.  Until then, let's all just try to remember him as he would want us to remember him:

The Twins need to do the right thing and retire that dance.  It's only right.

Mike Piazza

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 57.8%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 62.2%

# of Years on Ballot - 2

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yes, so long as he doesn't talk about backne anymore.

Piazza gained support this year, which pretty much ensures that he'll make a very charismatic speech in front of a giant rock-Piazza head in the near future.  For my money ($18), Piazza is the best offensive catcher of all-time.  He hit for power, average, took a walk and did so with swagger, or swag, if you will.  I would like to remake Wag the Dog with Piazza playing both the Robert De Niro and Dustin Hoffman parts.  I'd call it Swag the Dog, but then, you already knew that. 

Craig Biggio

Percentage of votes in 2013 - 68.2%

Percentage of votes in 2014  - 74.8%

# of Years on Ballot - 2

Would I vote for him? - Yes

Will he get in? - Yeah, next year.

Wow, two votes; tough luck.  What if something crazy happens over the next few years and Biggio never gets elected?  Would that make the gimmick ballot voters happy?  If that were to happen, I'd expect public apologies to Biggio from each of those dastardly individuals.  I don't see it happening.  That's a silly scenario.  Biggio should get in next year and then I can start harping on the fact that Biggio is in and Larry Walker isn't.  DEBATE!

The Winners! - Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux

YAY!  I would have voted for each of these bodacious dudes.  Maddux is probably my favorite non-Twins pitcher of all time.  I love a guy in glasses.  Glavine pretty much had to be inducted with Maddux, simply because instead of each giving a speech, they can just re-enact their "chicks dig the long ball" commercial from the 90s.  I am terrified of Frank Thomas to this day.  If he came up to the plate against the Twins in 2014, he'd probably hit a 450-foot home run. 

These are all deserving candidates.  Nothing to quibble with here. 

.
..that said, can all the Glavine supporters please support Mussina and/or Schilling in the future?  These three were extremely similar, as pointed out by Baseball Prospectus' Russell A. Carleton here.  Now that Glavine is inducted, let's try to induct one of these two each year for the next two years.  TCB, takin' care of business. 

The future - Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz, among others

Next year, the ballot remains #CROWDED.  You add Johnson and Martinez, two absolute slam dunk, empty net, (insert curling term from Wikipedia) candidates.  Smoltz is in the Mussina/Schilling/Glavine camp, so maybe we have to add him to my previous proposal and make it an every year for the next year years kind of deal.  Gary Sheffield is there too and he had Hall of Fame bat speed and bat wag. 

The ballot UNCROWDS a bit after that, with Ken Griffey Jr joining the party in 2016 and Ivan Rodriguez in 2017.  I'd guess that there are a lot of guys elected in the next few years.  This is almost entirely because there are a lot of guys who are deserving.  It's weird like that. 

There we have it.  As the first person to analyze the Hall of Fame results, I feel intense pride and accomplishment.  I hope that other writers follow suit in the future.  For the record, I do fully intend to sell my fake vote to Deadspin next year.

The real Jack Morris HOF case

Hello all.  Jack Morris is a lightning rod.  His Hall of Fame case is one of the most hotly debated cases in history.  Sure, there's his 1980's dominance, his 1991 Game 7 World Series performance and his overall bulldog persona.  However, if you're still on the Morris Fence, please use these GIFs to make your ultimate decision:

Please adjust your votes accordingly.

My Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame Ballot

Man o' Man, the Hall of Fame season is all around us!  I see columns and posts everywhere!  I even contributed a post to my own blog on Tuesday where I went through my personal fake Hall of Fame ballot.  If you missed it, check it out!  Today, I want to discuss an even more important and personally significant Hall of Fame:  The Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame. 

Voting is going on as we speak, using the democratic hallmarks of Facebook and Twitter.  The ballot has been live for a week or so, and I wanted to weigh in on my official picks for the Twins Hall of Fame.  I have identified seven Twins I might vote for (eventually, I'm very busy of course).  You aren't going to see a lot of advanced stats here.  The Twins Hall of Fame is all about wonderment.  It's about memories and dingers.  It's about the intangibles.  It's really about me not wanting to do any research for this.  And really, isn't that what life is all about?

I'm only voting for players I've watched play.  I'll leave Larry Hisle's campaign to my Dad, who has no clue how to use Twitter.  Godspeed, Larry and Dad. 

Tom Brunansky (OF, 1982-88) - Yep

Bruno's debut with the Twins was just shortly before I was born.  He made it through six and a sliver seasons with the Twins before being jettisoned for a vastly inferior player with feathered hair.  Now, he's back with the organization as a coach, he had an epic mustache and he was a really important part of a World Series team.  He has the ninth most home runs in Twins history.  I think Michael Cuddyer is a lock for the Twins HOF in the future, and Bruno was better.  I think he's a worthy candidate and he gets my vote. 

Dan Gladden (OF, 1987-91) - Nah

This is hard for me.  He won two World Series with the Twins, scored the winning run in 1991 and I actually enjoy Dazzle as a broadcaster.  The problem is that he wasn't really a very good player.  He was the team's leadoff hitter, but didn't really have the skills to hit in that position in the order.  He only had a .318 OBP as a Twin, lower than guys like Delmon Young, Scott Leius and Nick Punto.  Gladden was actually pretty bad in both World Series seasons too.  I'm not sure how exclusive the Twins want their Hall of Fame to be, but Dan Gladden doesn't really fit with the guys currently included. 

Brian Harper (C, 1988-93) - Yes

Only four players in Twins history have a higher batting average than Harper (minimum 2400 plate appearances):  Rod Carew, Joe Mauer, Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack (who we'll get to shortly).  Rare air.  Harper provided quality offense and adequate defense at one of the most important positions on the diamond.  He was consistent and durable in his six seasons with the Twins.  He was a very important part of a World Series winning team.  I consider him underrated, although I'm sure stats guys would think he's overrated.  I'm voting for him regardless.

Chuck Knoblauch (2B, 1991-97) - Oh goodness, yes.

This is a slam dunk.  Knoblauch took over as the best player on the team from Kirby Puckett, and actually did so in 1994 while Puckett was still active.  Knoblauch is right behind Harper for sixth on that batting average list from above.  He has the most stolen bases in Twins history, the sixth most runs, the 10th most hits and the 11th most doubles.  He also has the seventh highest rWAR (for hitters).  Simply put, he's one of the best players in Twins history.  We (as fans) have a complicated history with Knobby, but it's time to bury the hatchet.  I think he will get a ridiculous ovation when he comes out for his enshrinement. 

Corey Koskie (3B, 1998-2004) - Yep

Koskie probably is the most underrated player in Twins history.  It's not really that fans didn't appreciate his contributions, it's that he contributed even more than we thought he did at the time.  Only Mauer, Carew, Knoblauch, Harmon Killebrew, Matt Lawton (who probably should be on this ballot), Steve Braun and  Mack have a higher career OBP with the Twins (min 2400 PA).  He also has the tenth highest slugging percentage in Twins history (min 2400 PA too).  He was a great defender early in his career and remained good until he left for Toronto.  Leaving for Canada is a ding, but his career with the Twins was great. 

Shane Mack (OF, 1990-94) - Oh yeah

Mack doesn't have the longevity of others on this list, but he was a fantastic player and produced better than everyone but Knoblauch when he was with the team.  Using that 2400 PA sample I already have in Baseball Reference's season index, Mack is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and 7th in OBP.  If it weren't for the stupid players' strike, he may have stayed longer and he'd be that high in the counting stat categories as well.  He was really good in Japan.  Even with just five years of service, he still has the 15th highest rWAR in Twins' history (hitters only).  Plus, I said this on Twitter last week, he's been AWOL from team functions for years.  This might bring him back into Twins Territory.  It's a human interest story AND he's deserving.  Let's do this, Twins fans!

Kevin Tapani (P, 1989-95) - Eh, maybe...no

A lot of the methods I used to justify players above, could be used for Tapani.  He's 9th all-time in Twins career wins, 9th in innings pitched and 12th in strikeouts.  However, the Twins have some outstanding pitchers in their history and then a whole lot of unimpressive hurlers.  Emphasis on hurl.  Only ten pitchers have thrown 1000 or more innings for the Twins and Tapani is second-worst.  Tapani wasn't a bad pitcher, but he was more of the best of a mediocre bunch than a good pitcher among other good pitchers.  He was outstanding in 1991, and average or worse in every other season.  I can't vote for him. 

There you have it.  It's very hard for me to make an informed decision about these players.  I watched them growing up and I loved each of them.  All I want to do is find reasons why they should be added to this important institution.  I'll enjoy watching their ceremony and I might even try to go to Mack's in person.  I'm not very objective, but I don't care.  This Hall of Fame is for the fans, and I was a big fan of all of these players.  I'll probably even vote for Gladden and Tapani, just because I can and it's fun. 

Thanks for reading.  Who are you voting for?