Showing posts with label josmil pinto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label josmil pinto. Show all posts

Monday, May 26, 2014

Monday Morning Madness: Memorial Day 2014

Weekend Recap

The best thing I can say about the Giants series is that the Twins did not lose more games than they played.  If they had done that, I would have been really upset/confused.  The Twins didn't put up much of a fight this weekend, but the Giants are one of the best teams in baseball.  Plus, San Francisco is windy.  Wind is nature's biggest bully.  I'm just glad the Twins escaped with their calculators.  

Does Kyle Gibson have the Radke Syndrome?

Everyone remembers the odd affinity that Brad Radke had for giving up first inning runs.  In fact, why weren't Brad Radke brand peanuts more popular?  Because if you got to the game after the first inning, they'd already be shelled.  Radke was an excellent pitcher, despite this odd quirk.  Kyle Gibson is a promising pitcher and I think he's going to be good, but his first inning troubles are starting to become a trend. 

Actually, he has troubles in all of the early innings.  Here's an ERA breakdown by inning in 2014:

SplitGIPERERAPAABRHHRBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSTB
1st inning99.077.0048407131881.00.325.438.450.88818
2nd inning99.066.003838611103.289.289.474.76318
3rd inning88.066.753733690441.00.273.351.394.74513
4th inning87.033.862928161133.00.214.241.321.5639
5th inning77.011.292824150420.50.208.321.250.5716
6th inning65.000.001715000221.00.000.118.000.1180
7th inning54.036.751918160133.00.333.368.389.7577
8th inning11.000.003301000.333.333.333.6671
Innings 1-3926.0196.581231111933212151.25.297.366.441.80749
Innings 4-6819.041.8974672111771.00.164.243.224.46715
Innings 7-955.035.402221170133.00.333.364.381.7458
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/25/2014.

Now, he also hits a wall around the 7th inning, but that is somewhat common.  More troubling, his first three innings are terrible and the middle innings are great.  Bert Blyleven posited that Gibson is too amped up when starting a game and it leads to the ball being up.  When he fatigues, his pitches drop and he gets more ground balls and more outs.  It makes sense, but then again, Blyleven got to about the 5th inning of Saturday's game before he stopped calling Pablo Sandoval "Sandsobal" so who really knows. 

Whatever the issue, Gibson and his coaches need to iron it out because he doesn't have Brad Radke's command and therefore, his ability to overcome a bad first inning. 


There should be a term for the last guy who joins the bandwagon.  Mr. Last Jerk or something.  Mrs. Last Jerk if it's a female.  Well, we can work on that nickname later.  If the Sam Deduno bandwagon is rolling along down the street, I'm running my little heart out alongside trying to decide if I should risk my health to jump aboard. 

Deduno appears to be a perfectly acceptable back-end starter.  I certainly prefer him to Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia.  He looked fine on Saturday, not great, but good enough to keep the Twins in the game.  I still worry about how many walks he issues, but he seems to have the ability to induce double plays because he induces so many ground balls.  As a reliever, his ground ball rate had declined, but since moving back into the rotation, that rate is starting to climb back to elite levels.  Plus, he's generating more strikeouts this season. 

I fully believe in jinxes and I fully believe that I am a massive jinx.  If I decide to run alongside the bandwagon for a few more months, there is a completely scientific reason why. 


I don't curse a lot.  I am a teacher.  I try to be mindful of the fact that my students may read this if they are extremely bored.  Therefore, I try to keep this part of the web clean.  That said, doggone it to heck, why is Josmil Pinto rotting on the bench?!?

Pinto had one hit last week.  One.  That would be a troubling number if he hadn't gotten only six at-bats and one start.  That one hit was Pinto's seventh home run, good for second on the team with ease.  Kurt Suzuki has continued to be great, but keeping Pinto on the bench 80% of the time in favor of Suzuki is just crazy.  Pinto is too young and too talented.  He should have been alternating starts with Suzuki on the road trip.  I worry that with Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham coming back and Chris Herrmann sent back to AAA, Pinto will continue to sit more than he starts. 

If that happens, you can expect the darn cursing to increase.  Beans. 

Madness

Former Twin Update - Liam Hendriks

He's back!  Liam Hendriks was added to the Blue Jays' active roster when they outrighted Esmil Rogers (a player I advocated the Twins trading for, thank you very much) to AAA.  Hendriks made his 2014 debut on Friday and threw 5.2 innings, giving up just 3 hits, 3 walks, 1 earned run, all while striking out 3 (well, not while, he just struck out three guys, the other stuff happened around those strikeouts).  I liked Hendriks even though he was never good with the Twins.  It would be cool if he found some success in Toronto.  I just love people. 

Random Link - McCovey Chronicles

My beloved Grant Brisbee wrote about the Twins-Giants rivalry that doesn't exist.  He posted this prior to the weekend series and I read it on Friday, but it's still worth reading even though the Twins and Giants likely won't play each other again for a long time.  It's always fun to rehash the A.J. Pierzynski trade, but this time it's from the perspective of the losing fan base.  Here's the link. 

Random Top 17 List

Top 17 lists are so popular right now.  Joe Mauer happens to have the 17th worst isolated power among all qualified MLB players.  Isolated power basically measures a hitter's raw power.  Mauer's is currently 0.081, which rates just above "awful" on this chart.  Somehow, Mauer has an above-average OPS+, even with awful power.  I was shocked on Saturday when Mauer hit a double and the graphic stated that he had hit just his 5th double of the season.  I hope Mauer's extra-base power starts to come back because he's basically an average hitter without it. 

Here's the top 5 on this top 17 list that I never actually provided (through Saturday's games):
  1. Ben Revere - .034
  2. Derek Jeter - .043
  3. DJ LeMahieu - .047
  4. Martin Prado - .058
  5. Norichika Aoki - .059
#Eddie400 Update

This is by far my most successful half-hearted campaign.  Eduardo Escobar is still on fire.  When I proposed the Eddie 400 back in January, it was more a "why not" idea based on the idea that Pedro Florimon wasn't very good and Escobar was a couple years younger.  Escobar has made me famous beyond my wildest dreams (I have very depressing dreams).  He is still hitting like a champ and still getting regular plate appearances.  In fact, he is currently on pace for about 350 at-bats, but with his recent uptick in playing time, he should plow past the 400 ABs that I requested for him. 

I am so great.  I take full credit for all of his successes. 

Random Idea to Change Baseball

I love baseball, but I admit that it is not a perfect game.  Thus, from time to time, I have some craaaaaazy ideas to make the game better.  Here's one.  What if one baseball per game was made of like really hard cake.  This would take some engineering, but the weight and feel would have to be the same, so the pitcher doesn't realize the difference.  The ump just has that cake ball in his bag and eventually it comes into the game.  Once the ball is thrown, it would either explode with cake in the catcher's mitt, or better, off the batter's bat.  Cake balls are really big right now, so why not capitalize?

I'm not sure what the outcome would be, maybe it would just be a short comedy interlude, everyone cleans up and we just move on like it didn't happen.  If a player had a flour allergy, it would be particularly compelling every time he came to the plate.  It's just an idea, so obviously it needs some fine tuning.  Just imagine how much old school ball guys would hate that cake ball.

Song of the Week - Pearl Jam - Inside Job

I have nothing to plug this week.  I wrote some stuff last week, but it got proper attention.  Instead, I'll use this space to celebrate!  Pearl Jam, my all-time favorite band, is headlining in Minnesota for the first time since 2003.  Yes, Pearl Jam is still making music.  No, you probably wouldn't like it.  I do like it.  Regardless of how you feel about their music, they put on one of the best live shows I've ever seen.  I highly suggest getting tickets to see them, so long as I have my tickets first.  They love their fans and prove it every night.  Here's a live version of one of my faves:


Parting Thought

I am not an overly patriotic person, or an overly political person or really, an overly emotional person.  I have many family members who have served in the U.S. military and I am fortunate enough to have never lost a loved one during service.  As a social studies teacher, I felt an obligation to remind students why we had this long weekend in late May.  For some, they knew all too well and for others, it gave them something to think about as they enjoyed one of the final weekends before summer.  I don't feel that obligation as a Twins blogger or whatever, but I don't mind taking a few minutes away from the Twins to do as much as I can to reinforce the meaning of this holiday. 

To those who are remembering someone important on this very powerful holiday, my thoughts are with you. 

Have a great week, everyone!    

Monday, May 19, 2014

Monday Morning Madness: May 19, 2014

Weekend Recap

I'm happy with two of three when the one the Twins lost was at the hands of Felix Hernandez.  The Twins looked good this weekend and winning two of every three is a great way to win over 90 games.  Not saying that will happen, but...it will probably happen.


I'm two for two on mini-rants!  Two weeks ago, I called for more Danny Santana and I got it (until I was hamstrung.  get it?!?!).  Last week, I called for more Pinto.  Pinto has played in three of the last five games and I hope that trend continues.  Actually, no, that trend sucks.  He needs to play more than 60% of the time.  He needs to play closer to 90% of the games or else his roster spot is kind of a waste.  Of course, Chris Herrmann's promotion would have normally ensured more playing time, but the Twins won't have a DH all week.  So that sucks.    

Pinto is the Twins' third best hitter right now.  By OPS+, he's actually been better than Joe Mauer and he only trails "Superstar" Brian Dozier.  Pinto will be up and down because he's a rookie and he has a lot to learn, but he's going to help the lineup more than he ever hurts it.  I watch his approach at the plate, his level swing and his power and I really think he might hit .300 in the future.  Talking about batting average will get my smart baseball card taken away, but I still think that's an impressive feat. 


Aaron Hicks is hitting better (he couldn't be any worse) and I'm pleased.  His walk-off hit on Thursday may have been a spark to his confidence, but I can't really say that for certain.  He raised his average to nearly .200 this weekend.  I hope that Hicks' average continues to rise, but I think it is still important to keep some perspective in regards to his ceiling. 

I always envisioned Hicks as a .250 or .260 hitter at best.  That isn't outstanding, but I also thought he would walk enough to post OBPs in the .350 range.  That is very good.  In fact, a .350 OBP would have been 45th in the Majors last season.  Even in a dreadful 2014 season, Hicks has a walk rate around 18%, which would be in the top ten in the Majors.  You can say that he's walking because he's being passive and that is definitely part of it.  The other part is that he has a good eye for the strike zone.  However, it may be that he's still learning the MLB strike zone right now.  Here's a chart:

Actual
Pitchf/x
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
Z-Contact%
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
Z-Contact%
2013
22.50%
61.30%
39.90%
83.10%
22.10%
55.50%
39.70%
82.50%
2014
17.50%
54.90%
35.10%
88.60%
16.70%
54.70%
35.00%
90.60%

O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.  Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.  Swing% seems pretty self-explanatory and Z-Contact% is the percentage of times a batter makes contact when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone. 

So, Hicks is swinging less.  However, some of that comes from swinging at significantly fewer pitches outside of the zone (a good thing).  Of course, some comes from swinging at fewer pitches within the strike zone (not so good).  While he is swinging less, he is making much better contact on pitches in the zone.  Last year, he swung at more pitches in the zone, but made less contact.  Now, he's being more selective and making more contact.  It hasn't worked all that well for him just yet, but that type of approach could pay off as he gains experience. 

For the record, his O-Swing% would have been in the top five in the Majors last season, if Hicks had qualified.  Hicks clearly owns at least one elite skill that has translated to the Majors. 

If he can continue to improve his plate discipline (being more aggressive when getting good pitches), he could settle in as that .350 OBP center fielder that would be very valuable.  His line drive rate is up and he's hitting fewer fly balls (good with his speed).  His walk rate is way up and he's actually striking out less often.  He's making minor strides and I hope they start to pay off for him.

Brian Dozier

Some chucklehead on Facebook had the nerve to point out that nine of Brian Dozier's home runs have been solo home runs and then he added "#not clutch" just to further prove that he's a chucklehead. 
  • Dozier has six home runs when leading off an inning, should he have asked to not lead off those innings, chucklehead? 
  • Dozier is hitting .275/.385/.500 with runners in scoring position.  That looks pretty good to me, what do you think, chucklehead? 
  • Dozier's OWn% (a stat that looks at what a team's winning percentage would be with a team full of just that player, a stat my brother told me about this weekend, a stat that is awesome) is .693.  Basically, a team full of Brian Dozier's would win 112 games with his 2014 production.  Is 112 wins good, chucklehead? 
This one goes out to all the chuckleheads out there:  if you can't enjoy Brian Dozier's 2014 season, then you should probably give up being a fan.  You'll never be satisfied. 

Madness

Former Twin Update - Bronson Arroyo

Oh wait, he's not a former Twin at all.  This past offseason, it seemed almost inevitable that Arroyo would sign with the Twins.  First, he was a perfect fit.  He's a veteran and veteraniness is very important in the Twins' clubhouse.  Second, he "pitched to contact" and limited walks.  It seemed like a match made in heaven.  The Twins signed Mike Pelfrey.  Arroyo took his grit to Arizona instead.  Boo.  Arroyo started slow and had a 9.95 ERA after his first three starts.  He's been great since then.  His ERA is down to 4.15 and he's doing that weird leg kick thing that leads to cool baseball cards like this one:


See, the leg kick is so great, it can turn the whole world silver.  

Good Deed of the Week

Glen Perkins is a notoriously nice person.  Or at least that's how it seems on Twitter.  He's from Minnesota, so you know he's great.  Anyway, with Aaron Hicks' confidence reaching a low (probably) and Hicks getting questioned by pretty much all of his bosses, Perkins did the nice thing and blew a save on Thursday so that Hicks could come up later and win the game with a walk-off hit.  That is the kind of good deed that only a Minnesotan would ever think to do.  If Perkins had been born just a few miles East in Hudson, Wisconsin, he'd have probably just eaten a bunch of cheese curds or something.

Just kidding Minnesota and Wisconsin are basically the same place.

Poll Results

My most recent poll ended last week.  I wondered who you thought would hit at least 20 home runs this season.  This poll had 62 votes.  Here are the results:
Stallone beat Mauer.  That's awesome.  For the record, I only voted for Dozier and Pinto.  I think Arcia will come close too, provided he comes back relatively soon.  Kubel won't reach 5.  I put up a new poll, please support democracy and vote immediately. 

Random Baseball Card from the Past


I hate that card.  Nothing personal against Funderburk (or Robidoux for that matter; great name).  I hated cards that had two guys on two different teams.  It made it impossible to sort by team.  When you're a kid with baseball cards, you have to sort the cards a different way every day.  Or was that just me?  Anyway, when it was time to sort by team, these cards would really cheese me off.  It was a real dilemma.  I'd usually sort by the team I liked better or the player's team that I liked better.  It was unsettling.

Why this specific card?  Just wait until Friday.  Suspense!

Plugging My Way

Last week, I completed a four-part look back at the past 8 years in Twins' center field history.  With Aaron Hicks hitting a bit better this weekend, perhaps the tale will have a happy ending after all.  If you didn't read this saga, here are links to each part:

5000 words on something you probably remember because it didn't happen that long ago.  However, I might have hidden a secret code in one of the parts?!?!   What if I did?  You should probably read them just in case. 

Parting Thought

I'm really enjoying this team.  Even if they go into the tank and fall off their current pace, I'll still enjoy watching this team.  The younger guys on the team are fun to watch.  Brian Dozier is a freaking superstar.  The starting pitchers are more effective.  Even though the Twins aren't as talented as other teams in the AL, they actually have some players who would be starting on any team.  This is really starting to feel like the first step back in the right direction.  I'm all jacked up.  Have a nice week, everyone!

Monday, April 28, 2014

Monday Morning Madness: April 28, 2014

Weekend Recap

Rain is stupid.  The Twins lost the opportunity to win their series against the Tigers because rain had to be such a massive jag.  By the way, the Dodgers series is in danger.  Here's the forecast from my weather app:


Trolls.

Thus, the Twins split the two-game series with the Tigers.  The Twins got one good start and won and one bad start and they lost.  It's almost like this starting pitching thing is important or something.  Let's look at some individual performances. 

If Ricky Nolasco was the "safe" signing this offseason, then Phil Hughes was the "home run" signing.  He's young, talented and has been inconsistent.  So far, he's been those three things in 2014.  He was great on Saturday.  He gave up two runs (one earned) in the first and then shut down a very solid Tigers offense for the next six innings.  He struck out six without issuing a walk, running his season totals in those categories to 26 and 6, respectively.  Hughes will always be more FIP-champ than ERA-champ, but he's certainly capable of great starts like this one.  I've given up the hope that he'll greatly exceed expectations, but I think he will have a handful of truly great starts each season.  

Brian Dozier is having a great, but super weird season.  The easiest of his weirdness to see is the fact that he has seven home runs but just nine RBI.  On pace statements are kind of stupid, but he's on pace for 49 home runs and just 63 RBI.  I'm going to go ahead and assume he doesn't get to those exact figures. 

Dozier currently sports a .217 batting average and a .217 BABIP.  He's also taken a ton of walks (more on that later) and scored a bunch of runs.  He currently has a 124 OPS+.  As a result, he's on pace for a bunch of additional weirdness. 

If Dozier's batting average holds and he maintains most of his run scoring pace, he would have the lowest batting average of any player with at least 100 runs since 1961.  Currently, Curtis Granderson owns that distinction with a .232 batting average and 102 runs scored back in 2012. 

In addition, if Dozier maintains his batting average and OPS+, he would have the second-lowest batting average of any player with an OPS+ greater than or equal to 124 (also since 1961).  Currently, Gene Tenace and his .211 batting average and 130 OPS+ in 1974 owns this weird title. 

The conclusion:  Brian Dozier is weird.

Josmil Pinto

Not a lot of analysis here, just awe.  Pinto has impressive power.  His home run in the 8th inning of Saturday's game was a bomb.  Pinto doesn't hit "just barely" home runs.  His homers go well over the fence.  Currently, Pinto is hitting a home run on over 22% of his career fly balls, a rate that will not continue.  That said, his power looks pretty real to me.  He may not keep up a 35-home run-pace, but I'd say he's a lock for 20-25 if he keeps getting at-bats. 

Madness

Former Twin Update - A.J. Pierzynski

The Twins were rumored to be interested in Pierzynski in the offseason, but he chose to sign with the defending champion Boston Red Sox.  I suppose that's logical.  The Twins settled for Kurt Suzuki and he's been great so far.  What about All-Star A.J.?  About what you would expect.  He's making good contact, he's barely walking, he's got occasional power, he's probably bugging people, you know, his normal routine.  Pierzynski's fine, but at nearly a third of the price, I'll take Suzuki. 

Random Link - The Twins are watching...pitches

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs had a pretty interesting article on the Twins' patience at the plate this season.  He noted that the Twins hadn't utilized the walk as an offensive weapon in the past, despite having one of the most famous walkers (Joe Mauer) on their roster.  However, this year, the Twins have the highest walk rate in the majors and the second-highest OBP.  In addition, they are swinging at pitches at the lowest rate in the majors.  You can read more here. 

This is interesting to me because the Twins are basically admitting that they don't have batters talented enough to drive in runs, so they'll be patient and generate runs by volume of baserunners.  If that's true, it will be interesting to see if they keep this philosophy as younger, more talented hitters start to join the team.  It seems to be working right now and Joe Mauer has proved how it can work for a more talented hitter.  Regardless, it's been noticeable and effective this year, so I'll support this new approach. now and going forward.

Randon Top 7 List - Walks

Speaking of walks, one of the Twins who has embraced this patient philosophy the most is Brian Dozier.  Dozier has 19 walks on the season, getting closer to the Twins' record for most walks in April.  Here's a chart with the top 8 walk totals in Twins' April history:

Rk Player Year G BB GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BA OBP SLG TB HBP IBB
1 Chuck Knoblauch 1997 26 27 26 121 90 18 22 4 2 2 11 12 .244 .421 .400 36 2 2
2 Matt Lawton 2001 24 24 22 99 73 21 19 3 0 2 7 12 .260 .444 .384 28 1 2
3 Justin Morneau 2010 21 21 21 96 75 18 26 5 1 5 17 14 .347 .490 .640 48 0 2
4 Brian Dozier 2014 23 19 23 113 92 24 20 1 0 7 9 26 .217 .354 .457 42 1 0
5 Roy Smalley 1980 20 19 20 91 69 15 18 2 0 6 16 14 .261 .418 .551 38 1 1
6 Dave Hollins 1996 25 19 24 103 82 19 24 4 0 7 22 18 .293 .437 .598 49 2 3
7 Harmon Killebrew 1969 20 18 20 88 68 14 21 4 0 4 17 11 .309 .455 .544 37 1 4
8 Shannon Stewart 2004 19 18 19 94 75 12 23 3 0 2 13 8 .307 .436 .427 32 0 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/27/2014.

Dave Hollins sighting!  It would be nearly impossible for Dozier to catch Knoblauch, but he could pass Morneau for third with a couple of patient games against the Dodgers (if the rain cooperates).  Josmil Pinto would join this list with one more walk, as would Joe Mauer.  What a month!

Let's Get Excited About a Prospect! - Jorge Polanco

We hear a lot about Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer but the Twins have a ridiculous farm system with lesser known guys at every level who are truly exciting.  Jorge Polanco is currently playing at High-A Fort Myers and he's lighting things up.  Through Saturday's game, Polanco is hitting .354/.446/.532 with two home runs, six doubles and more walks than strikeouts.  He's 20.  This guy is going to be in the Twins' middle infield in the near future and he could be a star. 

Also, he's played primarily as a shortstop in 2014 and in 19 games he's made just...well, he's made 10 errors.  He's not perfect.  No one is. 

Baseball Card from the Past

I was thinking about Studio baseball cards this weekend.  I'm not sure why.  These cards were interesting because they weren't taken on the field, but in a photo studio.  There are plenty of seductive poses and players hugging their bats, but this Rick Aguilera card is my favorite. 


If it's possible to stare of a hole through a someone's face within a baseball card, this might be the example.  Just keep staring right into his eyes and you'll learn the meaning of life. 

Plugging My Way

I brought back the Power Rankings last Friday, counting down the ten best Twins performances thus far.  Brian Dozier was the winner, and I'll give you that one for free.  Also for free, the entire list, which you can find right here.  I mean, I guess you do have to click a button, so it's not completely free.  It won't cost you any money at least.  Pedro Florimon was not on the list, in case you were wondering.  I'll save you that time. 

Parting Thought

Last season, the Twins made it through 36 games with a .500 record.  They lost game 36 and then the next eight to fall well below that mark.  How far can the Twins make it with a .500 or better record this season?  I'm not sure, but I don't see a lot of 9-game losing streaks in their future.  The offense has been too patient and the pitching is just too capable, even if they are also capable of being terrible.  I thought the Twins would win 75 games in 2014 and I'm not ready to bump that figure just yet.  I do feel better about that prediction though.

Have a great week, everyone!