Minnesota Twins 40 Man Roster Analysis: Infield

Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team.  I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today.  However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here:

Starting Pitchers

Relief Pitchers

Catchers/Outfielders

Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting). 

Kennys Vargas

Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster.  Vargas is known for his strength.  Paradox?  Nope, just something I thought sounded cool.  Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.  Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468.  Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015.  Perhaps 2016?

Jorge Polanco

Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role.  I don't think that scenario plays out though.  Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22. 

Chris Colabello

Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization.  Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors.  He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line.  Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field.  However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by Jim Thome.  Plus, Joe Mauer now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play.  Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015.

Danny Santana

Santana could be on the active roster in 2015.  He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience.  He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well.  Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013.  He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases.  He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone.  That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than Pedro Florimon or Eduardo Escobar by 2015.  I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting just yet.

Pedro Florimon

The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive.  That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball.  He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+.  By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half.  He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below).  He's 27 now and approaching arbitration.  I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager that he'll be a utility player by then. 

Trevor Plouffe

The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility.  He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well.  I like versatility too, but I also like performance.  If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range.  He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career.  His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common arm-side pitching.  With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility.  In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014...

Eduardo Escobar

Escobar might be that better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe.  I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players.  Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions.  Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap.  If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well.  At least Escobar will play great defense.  Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible.  I hope he gets a longer look; I like him.

Brian Dozier

Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with Oswaldo Arcia and the new first baseman.  In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power.  He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs.  His defense was much better at second and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen.  However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it:

	OPS+	K%	BB%	BB/K	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR	HR/FB
April	71	17.7	7.6	0.43	0.280	22.8	36.8	40.4	0	0
May	42	23.6	3.4	0.14	0.276	14.5	51.6	33.9	2	9.5
June	152	15.4	16.5	1.07	0.364	20.0	36.7	43.3	5	19.2
July	101	17.1	5.7	0.33	0.252	25.0	32.9	42.1	2	6.3
August	139	19.9	7.8	0.39	0.347	24.8	30.7	44.6	6	13.3
Sept/Oct	93	21.2	8.5	0.40	0.255	15.9	42.7	41.5	3	8.8

Dozier's best month appears to be June, when he started his breakout.  He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate.  He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio.  I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP.  He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike. 

The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on.  His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though.  I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base.  Even in his best months, he never hit above .260.  However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013.  He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015. 

Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is all pretty futile.  I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it.

Joe Mauer

I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it.  Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position.  Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway.  Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today.  Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon.  He's a lock.

There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster.  The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster.  They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system.  Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions.  I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good.  How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster.  Thanks for reading, everyone!

Minnesota Twins 40 Man Roster Analysis: Catcher and Outfield

Last week, I took a look at the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine which pitchers would be a part of the next contending Twins team, which I believe will exist in 2015.  While all of these players will be around for 2014, some will be gone before the Twins truly contend.  If you missed them, here are the relievers and the starters.  Today, I'll investigate the outfielders and catchers on the 40-man roster.  How many of these players will be on the roster in 2015 and how many will be contributing positively?  Let's find out.

Max Kepler

There's no point in putting Kepler's name anywhere near the Twins' 2015 roster.  He won't be ready.  He's a nice prospect and I'm glad the Twins didn't take any chances with his Rule 5 status, but there is about a zero
percent chance that he's even in AAA in 2015.

Kurt Suzuki

Suzuki's 2015 status depends a lot on how Josmil Pinto develops in 2014.  If Pinto continues to hit as he has in 2012 and 2013, the Twins will need a true backup catcher going forward.  Chris Herrmann could play that role nicely, with the versatility to play outfield when needed.  The Twins also have Eric Fryer on the 40-man and haven't removed him yet, so you have to think they value his presence.  Therefore, I see Suzuki as a one-year Twins catcher because I'm not willing to even entertain the thought that Pinto will flop.  Twins fans deserve something good from Pinto.

Josh Willingham

Here are the facts.  The Twins got a good deal when they signed Willingham before the 2012 season.  Willingham had a fantastic 2012 season, posting a career-best OPS+ of 143.  Willingham dealt with injuries and had a very disappointing 2013 season.  Willingham has one year left on his very reasonable contract.  Willingham will be 36 when the 2015 season starts.  The Twins have numerous young outfielders.  Oswaldo Arcia is better suited for left field than right field.  The Twins like to use the DH to rest regulars.  The facts point toward 2014 being Willingham's last season with the Twins. 

Chris Parmelee

Parmelee has a slightly better chance of being with the Twins in 2015, if only because he is younger and cheaper.  Since Parmelee posted a ridiculous 183 OPS+ in his 2011 September debut, he has hit .228/.302/.364 in 543 plate appearances.  That works out an 84 OPS+ and that is not acceptable for a corner outfielder or a first baseman.  Parmelee will be 27 when the 2015 season starts.  He will be in his final non-arbitration season.  Unless his offense comes around rapidly, he won't get to that 2015 season with the Twins.  I have to say, I'm not fond of his chances. 

Eric Fryer

Fryer is a back-up catcher with good plate discipline.  The Twins seem to like his defense and have a long track record with true back-up catchers who provide good defense and little else.  Everyone thinks of Drew Butera, of course.  Fryer can't hit either, but he can draw a walk.  Fryer is younger, and therefore cheaper than Butera.  Fryer is almost certainly destined for AAA in 2014.  However, having a reliable backstop just a phone call away is not the worst use of a 40-man spot.  Fryer will make the league-minimum in 2015 and I imagine he'll still be kicking around with the Twins while getting kicked around by the fans. 

Chris Herrmann

I'm not sure that Herrmann is a good player, or even an average player, but he is a versatile player.  Versatility is underrated.  The fact that Herrmann can catch is useful.  While Eric Fryer may be a better receiver, Herrmann may be a better fit for the active roster because he can play another position when not pitching.  Obviously, you know what versatility is, so I'm not really sure why I explained it so deeply.  The Twins seem to value versatility and Herrmann would make for a good value, even if he isn't really a good player.  If he can demonstrate some of his Minor League plate discipline as an MLB player, he might become a legitimately good player. 

Alex Presley

When the Twins acquired Presley in the Justin Morneau trade, I thought he could have been released or designated for assignment this off-season.  Instead, Presley looked pretty good in his September in Minnesota.  He hit .283/.336/.363 in 122 plate appearances and played solid defense in center.  Presley can hit leadoff and play center, two valuable qualities.  However, Presley is 28, in his final pre-arb season and not nearly as talented as the next guy on this list.  He's better suited as a 4th outfielder and I think that's the role he will fill in 2015.  4th outfielders are important and he'll contribute in that role.

Aaron Hicks

Oh my.  In 2013, Hicks hit .192/.259/.338 and nearly went 0 for April.  He had a clash with his manager (which I explained here), got sent to AAA in July and was not recalled as part of the Twins' September call-ups.  He then decided not to play Winter Ball and ugh, gosh he just had a really bad year.   I hope the Twins and Twins fans can just forget about his 2013 season and look at the fact that he is a very talented player.  The 2014 and 2015 Twins will be better if Hicks can get his career back on track.  I think he will.

First, Hicks has always adjusted to new levels slowly.  He needed two stops in Low-A and he showed major improvements in High-A and AA in the second halves of those seasons.  Then, the Twins skipped him an entire level and he struggled mightily.  It's not the most shocking development.  Second, Hicks had his moments, both in the field and at the plate.  He made some outstanding catches and covered a ton of ground in center.  Even at the plate, Hicks rebounded relatively well after that horrendous April.  His OPS+ was 90 or higher from May to July.  He wasn't good, but he wasn't awful.  It's a shame his worst month was his first.  Third, he's 24 and he has a first-round pedigree.  He's an incredible athlete and an instinctual baseball player.  There's no reason to think he won't rebound.

He's going to be better in 2014 and then even better in 2015.  He might move to right field because Byron Buxton is a phenom, but Hicks and Buxton will cover an amazing amount of real estate in the outfield and Hicks will get to flex his massive arm on throws from right field.  I'm very excited to watch Hicks again.

Josmil Pinto

Pinto hit .342/.398/.566 in his brief September debut.  In that month, he basically convinced everyone that he was the catcher of the future and that Joe Mauer should be traded for some bubblegum.  The Twins did the reasonable thing and moved Mauer to first base and then signed Kurt Suzuki to share the catching responsibilities.  They'll likely just buy some gum.  Pinto is going to be a good, but he isn't 165 OPS+ good.  He had a .440 BABIP in September, which is both insane and not sustainable.  Even so, I do think Pinto is the catcher of the future and I fully expect that he is huge part of the 2015 team. 

Oswaldo Arcia

Arcia is a cornerstone player and an emerging fan favorite.  He had rough patches in his rookie year, but still posted a 102 OPS+ as a 22-year-old with almost no AAA experience.  He struck out a ton and didn't walk much, but he also just reached legal drinking age.  He slugged .430 and I wouldn't be surprised if he eclipses that number for the next ten seasons.  I really liked what I saw from Arcia in 2013 and I think he'll be one of the biggest reasons why the 2015 Twins will contend for the playoffs. 

Here's some proof for the nay-sayers.  In the past 25 years, just 76 players have posted an OPS+ of 102 or better, with the same amount of plate appearances as Arcia, at age 22 or younger.  A couple are repeats actually, so we're talking about just 54 total players, or about 2 per season.  Here's the link to the list:  Click here.  Some of the names are duds, but the vast majority are All-Stars.  Impressive company. 

With that ray of sunshine, we end.  Tomorrow, I'll give you my thoughts on the infielders.  I'll see you all then!

Minnesota Twins 40 Man Roster Analysis: Starting Pitchers

Welcome to my second annual trip through the Twins' 40-man roster.  I can say annual because I did this last year.  In this series, I will analyze the players on the current 40-man roster, with an eye toward 2015.  Why 2015 and not 2014?  While I do think the Twins will be better next season, I don't see them in any sort of playoff hunt for at least one more year.  Therefore, I want to see who will contribute to the next notable Twins team. 

My plan is to break this into four parts, starting with the starting pitchers today, and working my way through the rest of the roster throughout the coming days.  I'll order the players from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute.  When I use that word, I really am looking for contribution.  It's not enough to simply be on the roster, I want to know who will help guide the team to their next AL Central Title/first round sweep.  Kidding!  That's not cool.

Also, the Twins do need a roster spot for when they officially sign Mike Pelfrey.  I think three of the first four names are DFA candidates (one is not eligible) and could be off the roster before you read this.

Kris Johnson

It confuses me that he's on the 40-man roster right now.  I would have assumed he'd have been designated for assignment when the Twins needed the 40-man spot after the Phil Hughes signing.  Instead, the Twins let Liam Hendriks go and kept Johnson.  Hendriks would likely be in this very spot on my list, but I still would have kept him. 

Johnson is nothing special at all.  He's 29 and he's had some muted AAA success.  He was 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 21 starts with Pittsburgh's AAA team last season.  Of course, he barely posted a K/9 higher than 6 and he isn't some extreme control specialist or anything.  He's left-handed.  That's pretty much the only compliment I can pay him and it's not really a compliment, more of a fact.  He very well could be on the roster in 2015, but if he's pitching, the rotation is in shambles or the goal of pitching was changed from preventing runs to allowing runs. 

Logan Darnell

A lot of what I wrote about Kris Johnson can be applied to Darnell.  He's left-handed, doesn't strike out many batters and while his MLB debut would be a nice moment for him, it would likely signify that things have gone horribly wrong.  He was just added to the 40-man, so he has to remain there until after Spring Training.  He is five years younger than Johnson, so I have no problem with keeping him on the 40-man for now.  That said, if the Twins need a spot in June or July or something, I'd have no problem removing him and risking his loss. 

Scott Diamond

This may seem really high on this list, but I think 2014 is his final season with the Twins.  First, Diamond is out of options.  Second, he is arbitration-eligible in 2015.  Third, he just isn't very good.  His 2012 season really throws off our analysis of Diamond as a player, but I think we need to admit that his magic season was mostly magic.  His strand rate, ground ball rate and walk rate were all far off his career averages (and minor league numbers).  He made something work in 2012, but it doesn't appear to have been something sustainable.  Unless he finds that magic again in 2014, there seems to be little reason to keep him around.  In my mind, he doesn't seem like the type to translate to relief successfully either. 

Andrew Albers

I don't really think Albers is any better than Diamond, but he has less service time and will be cheaper going forward.  He has options as well, which is big because he can just be called up if the Twins need a starter over the next two seasons.  I also think that he could have slightly more success because he has demonstrated consistently good control.  That said, he's basically a rotation replacement who can be called upon when needed.  I don't expect him to be anything more than a fifth/sixth starter, but he could fill in nicely when injuries hit.

Kevin Correia

The Correia signing has already worked out better than I could have ever anticipated.  When you read my analysis of the signing, you'll see that I had logical reasons to hate the signing, but I was wrong about nearly all of them.  I was in the camp of Correia potentially taking starts from more talented players, but that almost never happens with the volatility of pitchers.  Correia gave the Twins consistent innings and performed better than I had anticipated.  All that said, I would be shocked if he was on the roster next season.  He is a free agent after 2014 and the Twins have young pitchers who will hopefully be ready before 2014 ends, much less when 2015 starts.   

Trevor May

I'm not sure that May will be ready by 2015.  His 2013 season was better than his 2012 season, but not by a whole lot.  However, he did improve and that is important.  He might be a guy who adjusts slowly.  May isn't going to be a number 1 or 2 or even 3 starter.  However, he's been very durable as a Minor League pitcher and perhaps his long-term role is a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter who gives the team a start every five days and doesn't make a fool of himself.  That type of player is quite valuable (look at how much Mike Pelfrey just got paid), but that type of player is even more valuable when they make the league minimum.  May isn't a super prospect any longer, but he's starting to become undervalued a bit, in my opinion. 

Vance Worley

I wonder if Worley's 2011 season is clouding my judgment too much.  Looking at that 2011 season, I'm starting to see more fluke than I'd like to see.  First, his strikeout rate was the highest rate he had posted since rookie ball.  Second, his strand rate was very high - 78.2%.  His ground ball rate dipped, but his home run/fly ball rate dipped too, masking one deficiency with some luck.  His BABIP was .285, which isn't super low, but much lower than his typical MLB or high Minors season.  Everything else was in line with his career numbers, but those differences would explain his success.  I do think Worley could translate to the bullpen if necessary.  He might be too fastball-dependent to thrive as a starter, but maybe a move to shorter appearances would make his stuff look better.  Worley is in the same boat as Diamond, but he's a year younger and strikes out more batters.  I think he could still be kicking around in 2015, but I'm not sure he'll be a full-time starter by then.

Samuel Deduno

I honestly do not know how to analyze Deduno.  Nothing I see looks real, but he gets results in some magical way.  His ground ball rate is elite, all of his pitches break downward and he harnessed his control in 2013.  He may not be conventional, but he gets batters out.  He has missed a fair amount of time due to injury, and he is no sure bet for Opening Day due to shoulder surgery.  It is hard for me to look at his numbers and see anything but "regression alert!" flashing brightly.  However, I'm tired of being wrong about him, so I'm going to assume he continues his tightrope walk through the Majors and contributes to the team when healthy. 

Mike Pelfrey - SUPER BONUS!!!!!

Ugh.  I really don't enjoy Mike Pelfrey.  He's a fine pitcher, I suppose, he just works too slowly for my liking.  Baseball is great, but four hour games are not.  Pelfrey got a lot of credit for his speedy recovery from TJ surgery.  He did improve in the second half, but he also wore out by September.  The hope that he will improve in his second year after TJ is justifiable, but how much improvement should we expect?  He wasn't really that great to begin with, although he did have an excellent 2010 season.  He has always been good for innings, and that is important.  Plus, he'll be under contract in 2015, so I'd guess he's part of the rotation.  I can't imagine he'll be anything more than a #5 starter, but every team needs five and he'd be one of the five.  Ugh.

Phil Hughes

Hughes is under contract for 2015, so he'll contribute.  There is a slight chance that Target Field doesn't reverse all of his fortunes and he ends up as a very effective, but pricey bullpen arm.  I choose to be more optimistic.  I wrote in depth about why I like Phil Hughes for the Twins a couple weeks ago.  Basically, his splits indicate that some real improvement can be expected and the shift in ballpark will help him as well. 

Kyle Gibson

Gibson had a brutal 2013 season, but many rookies struggle in their first season.  I think Gibson has the potential to be a number 3 starter and he could reach that potential by 2015.  He has good command, good stuff and a big, durable frame.  I'm curious to see how he rebounds in 2014 and I hope he gets a long look in the Majors.  Gibson's command wasn't great with the Twins.  He also had a .350 BABIP and a 66.5% strand rate.  Those numbers should regress to the mean, his command should rebound and I think he'll be great when he re-enters the Twins rotation.

Ricky Nolasco

I liked the Nolasco signing for more symbolic reasons than on-field reasons.  Even so, I see almost no way that Nolasco isn't contributing positively in 2015.  Since 2008, Nolasco has averaged just under 200 innings, 13 wins and an ERA of 4.30.  He improved in 2013 and the Twins have to hope those improvements are real and that he will keep down that path.  If so, he'll be great and help a lot in 2015.  If not, he has always been a reliable innings eater and that helps a lot too.

Tomorrow, I'll post my analysis of the relievers.  The list is shorter and the volatility is higher.  It should be a whole lot of fun.