A look back at some Minnesota Twins free agent targets

Free Agency is an exciting time!  There are all these players who are "free" and teams can negotiate to sign them to play for their team.  As fans, we get to speculate, generate wish lists and then generally come away disappointed with our haul. 

The Twins prolonged their free agency period by signing Kendrys Morales just a couple weeks back.  However, they also struck quickly and aggressively back in the real free agency period, landing Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Kurt Suzuki, to name a few.  This post isn't about those who signed in Minnesota, but those who did not.  Let's look back at some names the Twins were either linked to or who some dork (me) advocated for.

My Proposed Targets

Scott Kazmir

Kazmir has continued his ridiculous and bizarre renaissance in 2014, as he's been one of the best pitchers in the American League and a huge reason why the A's are one of the best teams in baseball.  I liked Kazmir on a smallish deal although I didn't really like the deal the A's gave him.  So, I was both right and wrong about Kazmir. 

A.J. Burnett

I really liked Burnett!  I would have shelled out $16 million for him!  Remember, I am not smart.  Burnett has reverted to the command-challenged pitcher he has pretty much always been, just with fewer strikeouts.  $16 million!  Are you sure you want to continue reading?

Matt Garza

I wanted Garza on a deal similar to the deal Ricky Nolasco received.  I still wanted Garza even after the Twins had signed Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey.  So far, it looks like the Twins were right to pass.  His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up and his fastball velocity is down.  Even so, he's still pretty good and obviously better than Nolasco has been.  I think his deal looks fine in the long run, but I'm less sad that he chose the Brewers than I was a couple months ago.

Josh Johnson

Johnson made zero starts for the Padres before succumbing to his second Tommy John surgery of his career.  He will miss all of 2014.  I still maintain, and will continue to maintain, that Johnson is from Minneapolis. 

Johan Santana

This one hurts too much to discuss in depth.  The Twins lost to out to the Orioles for Santana's services.  Then, right as he was about to make his 2014 debut, he tore his Achilles and he will miss the rest of the season.  BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, random, sucky occurrences. 

Masahiro Tanaka

I dedicated the number one spot in my Power Rankings to Tanaka for a full month and he still decided that he would rather play for a team that doesn't let him grow facial hair below his lips.  What a dork.  Oh, he's basically been the best pitcher in baseball this year.  No beard though.

Robinson Cano

I advocated the Twins signing Cano, but I knew there was no chance.  In a way, we're all lucky the Twins were nowhere near Cano.  Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the better second basemen in baseball and actually has a higher WAR than Cano.  Cano is still a great player, but $240 million is the kind of money that you only spend on handsome, milk-drinkin', Minnesota-bred players. 

Corey Hart

Hart has been awful this season and he's currently injured.  The Twins have a surprising glut of outfielders and little need for Hart.  On a related note, can you think of a worse place for a hitter to sign a one-year deal to try raise value with an eye toward a future multi-year deal than Seattle?  It's almost like they make all their batters hit with a backpack full of sand.  Do they do that?  I'll be honest, I haven't watched a lot of Mariners games this year. 

Eric Chavez

Chavez is currently on the DL (knee, old).  Prior to his injury, he had been late-career Eric Chavez:  good power, good OBP, shockingly poor defense, and great in a platoon.  I thought he would be a perfect match for Trevor Plouffe, but that would have eaten up a valuable bench spot and I doubt Chavez can adequately play the outfield as all Twins' infielders have been required to do this season.

Dioner Navarro

I greatly preferred Navarro to Kurt Suzuki.  He's younger, plus, Navarro had actually had a decent offensive season in the last five years.  As is customary, I was wrong.  Navarro has been fine, but Suzuki has obviously been better.  To be fair, I did like Suzuki as a backup.  That's something, right?

Rafael Furcal

I often wonder if I'm thinking clearly when writing and researching.  Somehow, I looked at all the figures, all the stats, all the history and still decided that Furcal would be an "interesting" reclamation project.  He was recently activated from the DL and he's probably pulling his hamstring as we speak. 

Linked to the Twins

Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo was so closely linked to the Twins that I actually spent a good twenty minutes coming up with Arroyo promotional ideas that I could submit to the Twins.  Arroyo braids and cornrows, free acoustic guitar, a clock where his weird leg kick becomes the minute hand.  Alas, he went to Arizona where he's continued to be pretty good.  Signing Arroyo would have been much better than signing Mike Pelfrey, but then, could Arroyo pull off the same deranged look that Pelfrey gives in that Twins barbershop commercial?  This look:

It's unlikely.  In fact, with Arroyo on the team, it probably would have been "unplugged" and therefore "disgusting."

Ervin Santana

When I listed the pitchers I wanted the Twins to pursue, a reader commented in two words:  "Ervin Santana."  I thought he was stating his name, a custom I had hoped would catch on and create a fun sense of personal community.  In reality, I believe he was advocating the Twins signing Santana.  This is going to shock you, but Santana has been inconsistent this year.  I know, now stop crying.  He'll be great for a few starts and then brutal for a few starts.  Some may prefer inconsistent to consistently bad, but I once threw up on the Tilt-A-Whirl so you'll excuse me if I prefer someone more stable.  

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Selfishly, I did not want the Twins to sign Salty because I did not want to type his name.  I also felt that he wasn't really that good and that Josmil Pinto needed to be the starter, but really, it was the typing the name thing that really bugged me.  He started strong, but he has tailed off a lot.  Plus, remember, I would have photoshopped his hair onto everything. 

Everything.

A.J. Pierzynski

He didn't even know that Bert Blyleven wasn't in the booth the other night!  I'm quite certain that Pierzynski will hit some variation of .270/.310/.400 until he is seventy, but there's no way he was coming to Minnesota when he could chase a title with the Red Sox.  Plus, Suzuki has been better. 

Other Notables

Chris Capuano

I wasn't very excited about Capuano, but I could have gotten behind a one-year deal.  The Red Sox are using him in their bullpen and he hasn't been very dominant.  It wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world to have a lefty in the Twins' rotation though.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Jimenez has been pretty awful this season, which was something I was very worried about.  I think I wrote that I would give him one year, $5 million or something like that.  He obviously did better than that.  Anyway, all these awful/disappointing starters have still performed better than Ricky Nolasco, so that's really fun. 

Dan Haren

Haren's strikeout rate has plummeted, but his ERA is much better than last year.  Huh.  His ground ball rate is way up, so that helps.  It feels like he's 60, but he's only 33.  He's also a lot taller than I thought.  This has been "discussin' vitals." 

Stephen Drew

Drew scurried back to the Red Sox when they determined that Will Middlebrooks was awful with ten healthy fingers and certainly wouldn't be any better with 10% broken fingers.  Hey, remember when Drew nearly went 0 for the World Series?  Yeah, he's still pretty much doing that.  Plays a mean short though.

In conclusion, these are players who are not on the Twins and therefore, our mortal enemies.  If the Twins had signed the right allotment of these players, they likely would be doing better in the standings.  In fact, if you replaced Ricky Nolasco with that Salty Whip from earlier, the Twins might have a couple more wins.  Ah, such is baseball.  The Twins did completely nail the Phil Hughes signing and I'd argue he's the best performer of anyone on this list.  Well, not Tanaka.  Or Kazmir.  But everyone else.  It's still good!  

Minnesota Twins Power Rankings: Remaining Free Agents

Another quiet week in Twins territory.  Spring Training started, so "news" aficionados have their fill, but I don't care for "news."  The Twins did claim Brooks Raley from the Cubs, meaning they are just one punch away from a free left-handed starter at the Soft Tosser shop.  Beyond that most minor of minor deals, things are silent. 

Of course, the Winter had been bustling.  The Twins made a big splash early and now we can just enjoy the soft waves that rustle from the aftershock.  Of course, when you look at payroll figures, even though the Twins spent a bunch of money, the overall payroll is still about $84 million, roughly the same figure as last season.  Then, you consider that the Twins will shed another $20 million after this season (Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia, Jared Burton, Kurt Suzuki), and you figure there's still plenty of available money to spend. 

So, let's use these Power Rankings to spend some Pohlad cash!  There isn't much left on the current market, but I can still find 10 guys worthy of discussion.  Note, QO means they received a qualifying offer at the beginning of free agency and would cost the Twins their second-round selection this June. 

10.  Octavio Dotel

The Twins have absolutely no need for Dotel, but he's played for 13 different teams and the Twins aren't one of them.  With Dotel so close to a complete set, the team could throw him a bone, sign him and then trade him to one of the other 15 teams he hasn't played for.  It's just solid PR/karma.

9.  Nelson Cruz - QO

Cruz has hit at least 22 home runs in each of the past five seasons.  He's just 33 and slugged .506 last season.  He also got hit with a 50-game suspension for his involvement with the Biogenesis scandal.  I'm proud to say that is the first time I have ever typed "Biogenesis."  Anyway, Cruz doesn't walk much and he isn't much of an outfielder.  If the Twins were interested, they'd have to put him at DH or risk having literally the worst corner outfielders in baseball.  I'm not sure it's worth paying Cruz a lot of money to be a DH while also losing a second-round pick. 

If his stock dropped so much that he can't get more than say 1 year, $5 million, then he would make for a good value.  I'm just not sure he really helps enough to give up that pick.

8.  Kendrys Morales - QO

It seems that the general perception is that Morales is a better player than Cruz.  They had an identical 123 OPS+ last season.  Morales has been better in the past, but he's also missed a lot of time with injury.  In his last three healthy seasons, he's averaged 26.3 home runs.  Cruz has averaged 26.7.  Morales walks more, but he can't even fake it as an outfielder like Cruz.  My point is, these two are pretty similar:  above-average hitters with good power.  Morales walks more, but Cruz has more power.  Cruz is capable of standing in the outfield, Morales isn't.  Morales is three years younger and a switch-hitter, so I do ultimately prefer him.  However, I'd pass on both and just make Josh Willingham the DH. 

7.  Andrew Bailey

Bailey is very interesting.  His career in Boston was a combination disaster of injuries and poor play.  Prior to those two seasons, Bailey looked like a dominant closer with Oakland.  His 2012 was just horrible and he only managed 28.2 innings in 2013.  He did finish 2013 with a 110 ERA+ and the highest strikeout rate of his career.  Although, he didn't pitch after July 12 due to shoulder surgery. 

Yet, I'd still take a flier on him, especially if he is available on a Minor League deal.  He won't be 30 until May 31 and there aren't a lot of innings on his arm.  He's been generally good when healthy and his fly ball tendencies would play well at Target Field.  He won't be ready for Opening Day, but if the Twins invest a few million in him and give him an opportunity, they might find a willing trade partner at the deadline or a young-ish, talented reliever for the back of their bullpen. 

6.  Ubaldo Jimenez - QO

You can't argue that he's not the best or second-best free agent starter still on the market, but I wouldn't touch him.  Jimenez was basically awful from 2011-2013, save for September and MAYBE August of last season.  Even in August, his walk rate was much too high for my liking (10%).  In September, he was dominant.  His strikeout to walk ratio was over seven, he didn't give up a home run and he finished the month with a 1.09 ERA.  He could not have peaked at a better time and yet, here we are in mid-February and he's still unemployed.  Some of that is due to the qualifying offer, but some of it is due to Jimenez scaring the bejeebus out of teams.  I can't ignore 17 bad months, even if that one month was truly outstanding. 

That said, 2 years, $20 million?  I'd do that.  Has his value fallen that far?  I doubt it.

5.  Chris Capuano

The Twins have worked so hard to put together their soft-tossin' lefty master set, why not just sign the guy who all of those youngsters hope to one day be?  Instead of hoping Scott Diamond rebounds, why not just sign a better version of Scott Diamond?  Instead of filling the roster with Brooks Raley and Kris Johnson, why not sign the guy who those two guys aspire to be?  Capuano doesn't throw hard, but he limits walks and gets just enough strikeouts to be effective.  Over the past three seasons, Capuano has averaged 163 innings and a 4.15 ERA.  Nothing special, but do you expect any of the three lefties I mentioned earlier to approach that?  He's only 35 and apparently will take a one-year deal.  Unless he wants 1 year and Elevendy Billion dollars, the Twins should really consider Capuano.   

4.  Jeff Niemann

Niemann is not special, but he's been a successful pitcher in the past and he's just 30.  He's coming off of major shoulder surgery and might not be ready until the second half.  His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates have been roughly in line with league-average over his career and his ground ball rate specifically was climbing over the years, prior to his injury.  Niemann would never be anything more than a number 3/4 starter, but he could replace Kevin Correia cheaply for 2015 and likely would surpass Correia's performance as well. 

Scott Feldman got 3 years and $30 million from the Astros and I think he and Niemann are pretty similar.  If the Twins can get Niemann for 2014, they might be able to work out an extension if they find him to be healthy.  I mean, once Niemann gets the sweet taste of Minnesota, he'll never want to leave.  Right?

3.  Ervin Santana - QO

I saw one report that Santana's new asking price was 3 years and $40 million.  I can't find it now because my computer is allergic to me giving credit to anyone else, but I know I read that.  I wasn't super high on Santana when I thought he could cost $90 million and a second-round pick.  However, that new contract figure seems very reasonable and possibly even a bargain.  When Santana can keep the ball in the park, he's a pretty good pitcher.  Target Field famously suppresses home runs, so it seems like a pretty good fit.  He'll be just 31 next season and could be a steal at the price listed above.  I'd even go a little higher than that, if it meant he would sign.  I don't love him, but I do think he'd be the Twins' best starter next season.

2.  Stephen Drew - QO

This is the guy the Twins need to sign.  He's going to cost a pick and that sucks, but the Twins need a shortstop.  I love Eduardo Escobar as much as anyone, but I'd gladly give up on the Eddie 400 at the end of this sentence if the Twins signed Drew.  The Twins' most MLB-ready prospect is Danny Santana and he might still be two years away.  Their best overall SS prospect is Jorge Polanco and he might be better suited for second.  Among likely 2015 free agent shortstops, I only count Jed Lowrie as being on Drew's level as a shortstop.  I doubt Hanley Ramirez and Yunel Escobar get to free agency.  Lowrie is also older and injury-prone.  J.J. Hardy is nice, but Drew is younger. 

This is the Twins' chance to address a need they've had since Greg Gagne.  Drew might be willing to take a one-year deal, but I'd rather sign him for 3 and just fill that void for a few years.  By then, who knows who is available via trade, free agency, draft or development.  The Twins can basically cross this position off their Xmas list right now, at a reasonable cost.  I wasn't high on Drew early in the off-season, but now I'm basically ready to by a Drew Twins shirsey the second he signs. 

1.  Johan Santana

This is pure sentimentality, as Santana likely will not be ready to pitch until mid-season.  However, I love him.  I just want him back with the Twins.  I don't care if it's extremely unlikely that he ever throws another MLB inning.  At least then, he could retire with the organization that helped him make his name.  I'd sign Santana, sight unseen, for a few million.  I wouldn't even give other teams a chance to swoop in.  This is reason number 573 why I would be a terrible GM. 

There's my list.  Who would you sign if you could spend ownership dollars?  I'd sign all of the top three, if it were possible.  That seems very unlikely, but I'd guess the Twins can afford to grab at least one of them.  It would be a great show of faith to the fans, that's for sure. 

Have a great week, everyone!

Why the Twins dodged a bullet with Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The Twins reportedly pulled out of the Jarrod Saltalamacchia sweepstakes on Tuesday, opting to go in-house to fill their catcher position.  We'll find out in April who will fill the mighty milk glass of Joe Mauer, but Josmil Pinto is the early favorite with Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer presumably in the mix.  Saltalamacchia was the second-best catcher on the free agent market, after Brian McCann.  He supposedly signed a very reasonable 3 year, $21 million dollar contract with the Marlins, lower than the 3/$30 number bandied about earlier in the off-season. 

While the contract is reasonable and Saltalamacchia was a nice target, I think the Twins dodged a bullet in coming in second in this particular race.  I have five reasons why I feel this way and I present them to you without commercial breaks.

Reason # 1 - Saltalamacchia isn't really a great hitter

Saltalamacchia rode strong 2012 and 2013 seasons into his fancy new free agent contract.  However, if you look closer, each of those seasons has a hint of mirage.  In 2012, Saltalamacchia hit .222/.288/.454, which results in an OPS+ of 97.  That isn't great, but it's good for a catcher.  The power really carried his season, as he added 25 bombs.  However, he had a ridiculous 20% home run to fly ball ratio.  That means that one in five fly balls he hit left the field.  11.3% was average in the American League in 2012.  Not surprisingly, his HR/FB dipped closer to his own average in 2013 (12.6%) and he only hit 14 bombs.

Of course, he also posted a career-high 118 OPS+ in 2013, with a batting line of .273/.338/.466.  He hit 40 doubles, showing that his overall power is legit, and his .273 batting average was a career high by almost 40 points.  Here's the rub:  his BABIP in 2013 was a colossal .372.  AL average in 2013 was .297 and he has never been higher than .304 in a full season.  That batting average could take a huge dip, back down to his previous career level of .239 and I wouldn't be shocked.  Unless he has another lucky figure in him, it's entirely possible that he hits in the low .230s with 15 home runs and an OBP under .300.  I wouldn't want to pay $7 million for that.

Reason # 2 - His name takes an hour to spell/type/say/text.

I've got it mostly down at this point, but it took me hours of intense practice and every once in a while a Saltalkadladkjrtat still creeps in.  If he has a bad at-bat or even game, think of how hard it's going to be to text his name with an expletive to your closest friend or family member.  His nickname is "Salty" which is not hard to type.  However, that nickname sucks.  Who wants to be known as "salty"?  I'd call him "Macha," "Mocha," or "Mecca."  A salty mocha sounds pretty good right now...

Reason # 3 -  The contract didn't make a lot of sense for the Twins

Unless the Twins think that Josmil Pinto has no future at catcher, signing a starting-quality catcher for three years is just not a good investment.  One of the biggest reasons that young players provide value is because they do so at such a low cost.  Young, talented players give bad teams the ability to invest money in other places.  If Pinto needs another year at AAA, then signing a veteran for 2014 makes perfect sense.  But why sign that veteran for 2015 and 2016 too?  Salty's offense is somewhat overrated, but his defense is actually pretty good.  If Saltalamacchia caught regularly in 2015 and 2016, the Twins would be taking a lot of Pinto's value away and possibly getting worse offensive production.  It just isn't all that logical. 

Reason # 4 - You'd be subjected to so many bad photoshops

Saltalamacchia has some pretty wild hair.  My first instinct is to take that hair and put it onto other famous figures:

So, that's what Lincoln looks like with Salty hair.  Now, that looks funny right now, but trust me, I can beat a joke or "joke" into the ground about as good as anyone.  If you think for even a second that I wouldn't have 100s of these by the end of April 2014, you're crazy.  For everyone's sanity, it's best that he went down to his Florida home.  Also, the summer Minnesota humidity would crush that hair.  I hear it isn't that hot in Florida.   

Reason # 5 - Saltalamacchia's platoon splits basically make him a lefty

True, Saltalamacchia is a switch hitter, but I'm not sure why anyone would want to see him bat right-handed.  His career OPS+ as a righty is 64 and his career OPS+ as a lefty is 115.  That obviously makes him a good left-handed hitter and therefore, that would make him a reasonable platoon-mate with Pinto.  However, that brings us back to the issue of Pinto being a part-time player at his very young age and during his peak years.  Many of the reasons to not sign Saltalamacchia are Pinto-related, but if the Twins don't believe in one of their best young players, then the future may not be bright enough to warrant spending big money on a free agent catcher.  It's a bit of a paradox, eh?

While it's always nice when your favorite team opens up the pocketbook to improve the team, I think this is money better invested in other areas.  I wouldn't be shocked if Josmil Pinto provides better offense than Salty as early as next season.  Unless the Master Plan goes awry, Pinto should easily surpass Salty before the end of Salty Mocha's new contract, and will do so at a fraction of the price.  I prefer to reward a player who has grown in the system, earned the right to playing time, and looks to have some pretty substantial upside. 

While $7 million per season is more than reasonable for a starting catcher, the Twins now have that money to invest in even more pitching.  No one likes to come in second, but in this instance, I think the Twins will eventually be glad they did.  If you're still not convinced, just remember:

  

I have no shame.

Phil Hughes signs with the Minnesota Twins

Where were you when the Twins became a completely different franchise?  In the last 72 hours or so, the Twins have doled out $73 million in long-term contracts, surpassing their previous off-season record by nearly $300 billion dollars (if you believe some fans).  On Wednesday, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year deal, and tonight, they added former Yankee Phil Hughes to an increasingly (and suddenly) talented starting rotation.  Hughes will earn $8 million for the next three seasons, earning a longer contract than many experts had predicted. 

The Twins have to bank on a change of scenery transforming Hughes into a completely different pitcher.  Over the course of his career, Hughes has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is probably smaller than the park in your neighborhood.  As such, he has been very home run-prone, averaging 1.29 home runs per nine innings in his career.  The move to Target Field could help suppress those home runs. 

Park Factor stats compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.  For home runs in 2013, Yankee Stadium had a 9th-best HR Park Factor of 1.128, greatly favoring hitters.  The HR Park Factor at Target Field in 2013 was 0.802, 27th in the league.  The great thing about this normalized stat is that it takes out the types of players each team has, so the fact that the Twins don't hit a lot of home runs as a team is factored in.  This seems to indicate that Hughes' biggest bug-a-boo could be neutralized to some extent.  Although, extreme fly ball pitchers will always be somewhat more home run-prone, by definition.

Hughes might be classified incorrectly as a strikeout pitcher.  His career rate of 19.7% is slightly above average, but also just slightly higher than Scott Baker's 19.1% rate.  That said, Hughes does throw hard.  He consistently sits 92-93 with his fastball and can touch 95.  He has a low-80s slider that he has developed over the years and uses as an out pitch.  He had a 31.3% strikeout rate with that pitch in 2013.  His fastball was crushed for a .917 OPS last season, but the home ballpark change and crazy high fastball BABIP of .337 would point toward improvement with that pitch in coming years. 

His split stats are encouraging as well.  He doesn't really have a noticeable platoon split, as his career OPS against lefties is .760 and his career OPS against righties is .743.  His walk rate and strikeout rate are better against righties, although his rates against lefties are not bad either.  He actually allows home runs at a higher rate against right-handed batters, which you might not have guessed.  Moving to Target Field won't help that final rate much, but the rest of the stats are encouraging.    

His home/road splits really catch the eye.  His career ERA at home is 4.96 and his career ERA on the road is 4.10.  At home versus lefties, he surrenders a .831 OPS, basically equivalent to facing Hunter Pence in every at-bat.  In contrast, lefties had an OPS of just .681 on the road, or an entire lineup of Brandon Crawfords.  Against righties, Hughes gave up an OPS of .781 at home and an OPS of .700 on the road.  All of these splits were even worse last year, and he still had an xFIP of 4.35.  Target Field won't fix everything, but New Yankee Stadium was not doing Hughes any favors.

Hughes will always give up his share of home runs.  All fly ball pitchers do.  However, with his good strikeout rate, better-than-good walk rate, and good raw stuff, it is conceivable that Hughes could greatly improve his performance with the Twins.  Add in the fact that he'll be just 30 when this very reasonable contract ends, and you get a shark move from a GM who has never been described as any sort of vicious predator animal.     

In my free agent starting pitcher preview, I wrote the following: 

Who will the Twins actually sign?  I have no clue.  I hope they are shockingly active.  I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year.  How wild would that be?  Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring.  He starts calling everyone "playa."  Constant Finger Guns.  It would be amazing.  Make it happen, TR.

I had the wrong names, but the level of activity matches.  I hope the Twins beat writers can get used to being called "playa."  Blow the smoke off those finger guns, TR.  In fact, why not reload those babies and sign a catcher next?  Why stop there?  Bronson Arroyo is still available.  Scott Kazmir isn't going to get a larger deal than Hughes and the Twins still have money to spend.  If that happens, you can expect to see Terry Ryan in a leather jacket all summer long, no matter how hot it gets.  Ray-Bans too.

Personally, I'm basking in the glow of a Twins team that is actually committed to getting better.  I'm getting excited to an uncontrollable point.  You can analyze the talent of Nolasco and Hughes until sundown.  In fact, both guys might completely flame out next year.  What you can't say any longer is that the Twins won't spend money to win baseball games.  They just sunk $73 million into the rotation and greatly improved the team in the process.  I'm starting to think this team could win 75-80 games next year.  I need to sit down.  Wait, I am sitting down.  I need to lie down.  It's all just too exciting.

Ricky Nolasco signs with the Minnesota Twins: Wait, what?

Well, well, well, it looks like the Twins are serious about improving their team!  They came to terms with Ricky Nolasco and he instantly becomes the Twins' best starting pitcher since probably Johan Santana.  The terms of the deal aren't currently known.  Nolasco is an eight-year veteran, with all but part of 2013 spent with the Florida/Miami Marlins.  Nolasco is a 6' 2" righty who relies on a couple of fastballs that top out around 93-94 MPH and an effective slider that he uses as an out pitch.  Nolasco is a career 89-75 pitcher with a 4.37 career ERA.  Since becoming a full-time starter in 2008, he has averaged 192 innings per season and has a 3.77 K:BB ratio. 

Now that we know who this new Twin is, should be we excited?

I say yes.  I had Nolasco rated as the third best starting pitching target for the Twins this off-season.  I originally had him much lower, based solely on his reputation.  As I dug into his stats more and more and compared him to more expensive options like Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, I started to see the value in Nolasco, even at a fairly high cost. 

Nolasco has great control, with a 5.5% career walk rate.  In fact, he's one of the best active control pitchers, as he's tied for 10th among active starters with at least 500 innings pitched.  His strikeout rate is just above 19% although that figure has dipped a bit in recent years.  His career ERA is 4.37, but his career xFIP is 3.75.  His diminishing strikeout rate would be a concern, but he's still roughly league-average and he's traded strikeouts for ground balls.  His GB rate sits more in the 45% range, opposed to the 38% range from earlier in his career. 

Nolasco was tremendous in 2008, looking like a future ace at the age of 25.  His career hasn't progressed that way.  In 2008, Nolasco threw 212.1 innings, posted a 3.52 ERA with a 186:42 K:BB ratio.  He topped that strikeout figure in 2009 (195), but saw his ERA jump all the way to 5.06.  His ERA has slowly trended downward, hitting 3.70 in 2013.  He's changed a bit as a pitcher over the years, but it seems he may have figured out the right formula in 2013. 

I put his last 5 seasons into a chart, for easy consumption:

	K%	BB%	GB%	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP	AvgFBVelo
2009	24.80	5.60	38.30	0.317	61.00	11.00	5.06	3.23	91.5
2010	22.10	5.00	40.00	0.316	71.60	12.40	4.51	3.37	91.2
2011	16.60	4.90	45.10	0.331	66.20	9.50	4.67	3.55	90.6
2012	15.00	5.70	46.60	0.309	69.30	9.10	4.48	4.17	90.1
2013	19.80	5.50	43.00	0.299	70.90	8.70	3.70	3.58	90.4
Career Avg	19.30	5.50	41.70	0.307	68.70	10.30	4.37	3.75	90.9

I threw in his average fastball velocity as he has seen a very slight decrease over the years.  However, the trade-off between strikeouts and ground balls should offset that decrease slightly.  Just looking at the chart, Nolasco seems to have either noticed his dip in velocity or had it pointed out to him, and he started to transition from a strikeout/fly ball pitcher to a more balanced, more ground ball-focused pitcher.  This doesn't mean that he is "pitch to contact" as he posted a strikeout rate ever so slightly above National League average (19.8% to the average of 19.7%).  When you consider his elite walk rate, there is hope that the Twins have landed a consistently good pitcher just hitting his stride. 

The most encouraging part of that chart is that his 2013 season was not some crazy fluke.  His rates were basically all right in line with his career rates.  His strand rate and BABIPs were normal.  His velocity and strikeout rates were normal.  It just looks like he finally put everything together after four years of under-performing compared to his peripheral stats.  At just 31, he could be productive throughout the life of the deal (again, terms unknown).  This all assumes health, but that's pretty much the case with every pitcher that has ever lived. 

Some will point out that Nolasco was just a 4th starter on the Dodgers.  To me, this is playing very fast and loose with the Number X starter label.  The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, which means that just about every pitcher on the planet is a 3rd starter at best on the Dodgers.  Hyun-Jin Ryu was very good last season, but his xFIP (3.46) wasn't far off of Nolasco's while with the Dodgers (3.51).  You could argue they were 3a and 3b (at least until the playoffs, but that's a different story). 

The Twins aren't the Dodgers.  The Twins don't have anyone close to Kershaw, Greinke or even Ryu.  At least, they didn't until they signed Nolasco.  You can't look at Nolasco and be upset that the Twins didn't get an "ace."  I prefer to think of this signing in two ways.  His innings will basically replace those of the garbage amalgamation of Pedro Hernandez, Kyle Gibson and Vance Worley in 2013.  That hideous monster posted an ERA around 7 and only managed about 150 innings in 32 consistently disastrous starts.  If you don't agree with that thinking, consider Nolasco a direct replacement for Mike Pelfrey and his 5.19 ERA in 29 starts (152.2 innings).  If nothing else, we can hope Nolasco's signings bring an end to the two-year contract rumors we keep hearing about Pelfrey.

Does Ricky Nolasco make the Twins a contender?  Come on, be reasonable.  Nolasco is a fine pitcher, but not a game-changer.  If Nolasco is the only significant starter signed this off-season, I'd still consider the off-season a success.  The Twins spent money on a free agent!  We've been begging them to do that for years.  Plus, he's a good one.  The fact is, the Twins are not a marquee franchise and the team has been bad for 3 straight seasons.  The Twins can want to sign free agents all they want, but the player has to agree to come here.  Nolasco did and hopefully he brings some of his starting pitching friends with him. 

As it stands right now, the rotation for 2014 could look something like this:

Ricky Nolasco

Kevin Correia

Kyle Gibson

Scott Diamond

Sam Deduno

Honestly, I think that rotation combined with a good bullpen and potentially good offense has the potential to win 70-75 games.  If the Twins can add another player at or above Nolasco's level, or a couple of guys just below, then who knows?  I know I'm excited right now and I know that the Twins are better than they were yesterday.  Isn't that the point of free agency?

Update - the contract terms have been announced.  4 years, $49 million guaranteed.  5th year option at $13 million that vests based on innings incentive in 2016 and 2017.  $1 mil buyout on that fifth year.  Very reasonable, plenty of room to sign more free agents as a result.  Nolasco has been worth just under $48 million over the past four years, according to Fangraphs.  Nice work, Twins!

The Minnesota Twins need starting pitching: Top 30 Targets Part 3

I've been writing so much about free agency lately, it's sick!  Last week, I addressed the position players the Twins should target.  This week, I've been counting down my top 30 starting pitching targets for the Twins.  If you missed any of this mini-dynasty, I'll provide you some links.  Since I wrote these, things have changed, but most of my ideas aren't super player-specific, more of an overall philosophy. 

Translation:  please click these links so I can feel cool.

Infielders

Outfielders and Catchers

Relief Pitchers and Starting Pitchers 30-21

Starting Pitchers 20-11

Now that all the shameless self-promotion is clear, we can get back to the starting pitcher countdown.  Here are the top ten starting pitching targets for the Twins, in my opinion (which should be obvious because I am writing this):

10.  Scott Feldman

Nothing sexy about Scott Feldman.  This is not an indictment on his looks either, he just doesn't excite me as a pitcher.  His walk rates are generally good, his strikeout rates are in the Twins Zone and he's reasonably young.  His ground ball rate was great in 2013 and with the Twins' good infield defense, he could be a decent fit.  If Feldman is the second or third best starting pitcher the Twins sign, the off-season could be categorized as a success.  If he's the crown jewel of the 2013 off-season?  Yawn.  

9.  Bronson Arroyo

HOT RUMOR!!  If news reports are to be believed, Bronson Arroyo is somewhere in the Twin Cities area, lurking, waiting to sign a contract with our beloved Twins.  Be on the lookout for a man in his late 30s with long hair and likely carrying an acoustic guitar and silly-walking like in Monty Python.  Do not approach Arroyo, as he could recede back to Cincinnati if spooked. 

I've already started to talk myself into Arroyo on the Twins, so that pretty much means he won't sign here.  I was concerned about his age and lack of strikeouts, but overall, he looks like a pretty valuable pitcher.  He's thrown over 2000 innings in the past 10 seasons and he's transformed from a control-enthusiast to a control-specialist.  He'll be 37 next season and all pitchers are healthy until they aren't healthy any longer.  If he does sign here, I'll be interested in the contract he receives.  Anything more than two years or more than $10 million per season will elevate my levels.  Stay below those thresholds and I'll be chill.

According to Baseball Reference, his nickname is Saturn Nuts. I'm sensing a love-hate relationship starting here.  If he even sings once, I want his contract voided.

8.  Ervin Santana

Not a huge fan.  He throws hard but that doesn't translate to strikeouts, so what's the point?  His career strikeout rate is lower than Scott Baker's.  It's only slightly higher than Kevin Slowey's.  Santana is also prone to wildness and home runs.  He's averaged over 200 innings the past four seasons, so he certainly has value.  He's a good pitcher, I'll say that.  He's reportedly looking for 5 years and over $100 million.  That's crazy.  Fans can harp on the Twins for being cheap all they want, but signing Santana to a contract that averages over $20 million per year is irresponsible.  I'd rather my team be cheap than crazy.

7.  Scott Kazmir

Kazmir will be only 30 next year.  That's insane.  I remember being jealous of my friend Brad because he had Kazmir on his fantasy team.  That was in 2005.  I've been jealous for 9 years now.  After completely falling apart in 2010-2011 and then missing all of 2012, Kazmir rebounded really nicely in 2013.  He still throws basically as hard as he ever has and he still has great stuff.  His 4.04 ERA in 2013 isn't special, but his 3.36 xFIP shows that he may be a huge upside signing.  His 2013 could end up looking like a huge fluke, but I'm not sure that it will.  He'd be a lot higher up my list if I could just get one more year to look at him.  The Twins won't have that luxury, so if they want him, they need to be bold.  I like him, I'd go 3-4 years if needed. 

6.  Ubaldo Jimenez

Is Jimenez consistent?  Here are his last 5 xFIPs - 3.59, 3.60, 3.71, 4.98, 3.62.  I can explain the 4.98!  Strikeout rate dipped, walk rate spiked, strand rate dipped, ground ball rate plummeted, home run/fly ball rate spiked.  There, it all makes sense now.  Why did all of those rates change so dramatically in 2012?  I'm not sure.  His 2013 looks a lot like his 2009, 2010 and 2011.  If his 2012 had matched, he'd be looking at a massive payday.  Instead, he'll have to settle for a tremendous payday.  It's a subtle difference, I agree.  I'm not worried about him as a pitcher, but he's far too rich for the thrifty Twins, so he rates a bit lower than others. 

5.  A.J. Burnett

Burnett would probably be number 1 on my list if there was any chance that he would actually sign here.  His combination of high ground ball rate and good strikeout rate is so enticing.  He has also really gotten his control under control (ugh) as he has aged.  Of course, none of this matters as Burnett is reportedly unwilling to pitch anywhere that isn't within walking distance of his home in Maryland (exaggeration).  Now there are reports that he may retire.  Regardless of what he chooses to do, he won't pitch for the Twins in 2014. 

What if the Twins just went insane and offered him 2 years, $36 million?  I bet he'd consider that.  If things really fall apart and all their targets sign elsewhere, I'm not so sure that wouldn't be a smart offer to make.  They have the money, right?

4.  Dan Haren

We would feel a lot differently about Dan Haren if we called him "Dangerous" Danny Haren like I want us to.  That would give him an edge.  Instead, he's a fairly boring option.  He doesn't throw hard, he's had some recent ups and downs and he isn't really a big name anymore.  He is consistent though.  His xFIP has been 4 or below since 2005.  His ground ball rate has been diminishing and his strikeout rate is dipping (as a trend, it was up a bit last season), but his walk rate is strikingly consistent, and low.  His 2012 and 2013 seasons were disappointing, likely as he learned to deal with that diminishing ground ball rate.  He seemed to figure it out in the second half of 2013, posting an 3.40 xFIP as his strand rate and BABIPs stabilized.  He averaged well over 200 innings from 2005-2011 and he's still just 33.  He never really relied on power stuff, so his age is less of a factor.  He signed a one year, $13 million dollar deal for last season and a similar deal would be very reasonable for the Twins. 

3.  Ricky Nolasco

You know how some pitchers outperform their peripheral stats?  Nolasco consistently underperforms relative to his peripherals.  His walk rates have always been excellent and his strikeout rates were consistently good until they weren't any more.  His career 3.52 K/BB ratio is just fantastic!  His career 4.37 ERA is not.  His career xFIP of 3.75 is good!  His dipping K rate is bad.  He's a yoyo.  He's averaged nearly 200 innings in his last three seasons and he is coming off his best season ever in 2013.  He'll be 31 next year and should be looking to cash in.  For a reasonable contract, I'd be interested.  I worry his contract offers will exceed "reasonable."  Oh, he's a slider enthusiast, and I'm not so sure we like that 'round these parts. 

2.  Josh Johnson

OH HOT DAMN A LOCAL BOY!  Johnson was atrocious last season, his first with Toronto.  Perhaps he didn't get used to drinking maple syrup every day?  If you look closely, there are easy ways to explain away his poor performance.  First, his strand rate was extremely low - 63.3% compared to his career rate of 74.2%.  Second, his BABIP was .356, an astronomical number even if you don't believe in BABIP.  Third, his home run to fly ball rate was 18.5%, over twice has high as his 8.2% career value.  Add all those misfortunes together and you get a 6.20 ERA but a 3.58 xFIP.  He'll be just 30 next season and won an ERA title only four short seasons ago. 

"BUY LOW," shouted the man.  The Twins should offer one year and $whateverittakes million to get Johnson.  If it takes two years, go for it.  Three years?  Yeah, maybe.  18 years?  Don't be stupid. 

1.  Matt Garza

I've written this before, but Garza's debut is one of my fondest memories of recent Twins past.  He was just such a delightful spaz that evening.  I enjoyed his competitive personality and while he may legitimately have a screw loose, he is a solid pitcher.  His 2013 was rocky, but he was coming off of a couple legit injuries.

In 2011 and 2012, he looked like a budding ace.  He had great strikeout rates, improved control and a suddenly solid ground ball rate.  His ground ball rate plummeted last season, but his line drive rate jumped far beyond his career norm.  I imagine those rates will even out.  With a relatively stable strikeout rate, and ever-improving walk rate and no real noticeable loss of velocity, Garza would be an excellent target for his age 30-34 seasons.  A five-year deal seems more than reasonable and I'd pay him big money. 

Would the Twins do it?  Would they bring back someone they once jettisoned for Delmon Young?  I have no idea.  I Googled "Matt Garza Twins hate" and found nothing.  It seems the waters are clear.  Garza isn't an "ace" but he's a very good pitcher and would anchor this rotation.  Projections seem to fall in the 4 years, $60 million range for Garza.  The Twins might need to exceed that.  Personally, I'd go 5 and 80 and hope he wants to come back.  That's a lot of money.  Deep breath. 

Special Note:  Masahiro Tanaka.  I learned long ago to stick to what I know and I know nothing of Japanese baseball.  If he's as good as advertised, he'd be number 3 on this list.  Since I can't speak of him with any authority or come up with any "jokes" about him, I'll just leave him here. 

So there we are.  Tons of free agents rated and reviewed for your reading pleasure.  Who will the Twins actually sign?  I have no clue.  I hope they are shockingly active.  I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year.  How wild would that be?  Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring.  He starts calling everyone "playa."  Constant Finger Guns.  It would be amazing.  Make it happen, TR.