Monday Morning Madness: July 14, 2014

Weekend Recap

Hey, two series wins in a row.  The Twins out-slugged the slugging Rockies over the weekend, pulling to within six games of .500 with a ten-game homestand on the other end of the All-Star Break.  They received a pretty balanced attack from their offense as just about every player contributed in some way.  The offense has been so poor recently, perhaps this is a glimpse of what is to come in the second half.  We can hope, right?

Kevin Correia

I'm starting to wonder if the Twins should hang on to Correia for the rest of the season.  With Ricky Nolasco out indefinitely, Sam Deduno better suited for the bullpen, Yohan Pino and Kris Johnson mediocre at best and Mike Pelfrey donated to Derek Jeter, the Twins might need Correia for the remainder of the season. 

This is counter to basically everything I have written about Correia this season, but I can't argue with his results over the last two months.  Since his poor start against Boston on May 14, Correia has made eleven very solid starts, posting a 3.22 ERA and averaging just over six innings per start.  It's easy to dismiss a couple good starts, but eleven?

Even if the Twins decide to promote Alex Meyer and Trevor May, they still have room for Correia.  When you consider that Meyer might pass his innings limit by September, Correia may be needed even if Nolasco returns in August.  I'm all for giving younger players opportunity, but I'm not convinced that Pino, Johnson or Logan Darnell can out-produce Correia for the remainder of 2014. 

Of course, my entire perspective changes if the Twins are offered a good prospect for Correia.  Then, I'll finally get my Yohan Pino shirsey.  Even with Correia's improved performance, I'm not sure that a team will offer a good prospect. 

Jared Burton

Burton's ERA is down to 4.82.  That's pretty good.  Since May 1, Burton has an ERA of 3.49 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.33.  He hasn't been dominant like he was in 2012, but he's been steady like he was in 2013.  I'm not on the "release Burton" bandwagon, as I think he might be the Twins' second most talented right-handed reliever on the roster.  Releasing Burton would hurt the bullpen, so the Twins should hang on to him.  I'd still like to see Michael Tonkin join the Twins very soon, but I don't feel Burton is the player to swap him out for. 

Josh Willingham

In 2013 and 2014, Willingham has batted .209/.347/.381, good for a 102 OPS+.  Willingham has been better in 2014, getting on base more and providing more power.  His batting average is insanely low, but his BABIP is freakishly low too.  His line drive rate is about four percentage points below his career-average and his ground ball rate is nearly nine percentage points below his average.  Willingham's bad luck is going to become the Twins' bad luck if they are serious about trading him. 

It would be fantastic if Willingham could receive some positive baseball karma.  He's been injured a lot recently, his luck stats are all going against him and he might get traded from a place that he really likes.  Hopefully, he'll start to get some good luck, mash for a few weeks, get traded to a contender for a good prospect and then win a World Series.  He seems like a legitimately good guy, so that would be the best-case scenario for all parties. 

Former Twin Update - Justin Morneau

We failed.  Morneau lost the Final Vote to Anthony Rizzo and will not be in the All-Star Game on Tuesday.  As a result, I ripped up my tickets, baked them into a cherry pie and fed it to anyone in Minnesota who voted against Morneau.  Congratulations!  The better player defeated the better story.  Whoopie!  By the way, morons, you still got it wrong.  If we were really going to take the best player, you got the wrong Anthony.  Anthony Rendon has been better than Rizzo. 

Regardless, Morneau was cool enough to compete in the Home Run Derby and hopefully he wins.  When he wins, I hope he melts down the trophy, bakes it into a cherry pie and feeds it to anyone in Minnesota who voted against him. 

Adieu Scott Diamond

The Twins released Scott Diamond over the weekend, ending his Twins career.  In a perfect world, he latches on with another team and puts together another MLB run.  It's shocking how quickly his career fell apart.  He was so good in 2012 but he couldn't sustain the one thing that he did at an elite level that season.  When Diamond was able to Maddux everyone, he was great.  When he was just simply "good" at limiting walks, he didn't have the same level of success.  Alas, 2012 was fun and we'll always remember his flash of dominance. 

Random Top Five List - Fewest First Half Walks

I am obsessed with Phil Hughes' ability to limit walks.  While he has been getting hit around a bit lately,  his elite walk rate should help him turn things around when the hits stop falling in.  Here are the top five fewest walks in a first half in Twins' history (minimum 75 innings pitched):

1. Carlos Silva - 2005 - 5 walks
2. Brad Radke - 2005 - 10 walks
3. Brad Radke - 2004 - 10 walks
4. Bob Tewksbury - 1998 - 11 walks
5. Phil Hughes - 2014 - 11 walks

2005 - "The Year of the No Walk."  I have a way with words.

Baseball Card from the Past

This was my favorite baseball card as a kid.  I started collecting around 1988, when I was five or six.  I got the 1988 Topps complete set for Christmas and I opened it up and started sorting like a madman.  The fact that there were two Kirby Puckett cards in the set blew my mind.  I liked this card better because it was an All Star card.  I always wanted to get this specific card signed, which sadly did not happen.  However, I did accumulate about 25 copies of this card via trades, so at least I have a bunch of them somewhere. 

Futures Game Recap!

Can Jose Berrios start the first game after the All-Star Break?  Can he start every game?  Seriously, that inning was impressive.  It was one inning, but it was super impressive.  Alex Meyer was impressive as well and he might actually be ready for the Majors in the near future.  Before the 2013 season, the Twins had exactly zero impressive starting pitching prospects.  Now, they have Meyer, Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe and Trevor May.  Each seems likely to contribute and impress at some point in the future. 

This wasn't really a recap of the game, but the other players in the game aren't on my favorite team so I loathe them and hope their hair turns to snakes.  That is, unless the Twins trade for one of them, then I hope for reverse hair snakes.  Oh, Joey Gallo seems strong. 

All-Star Fan Fest Recap!

My wife, daughter and I went to Fan Fest on Saturday.  We arrived shortly before 7pm, right about when all the fun was beginning.  It was an impressive display.  There looked to be a lot of activities that a younger version of myself would have really enjoyed.  There were batting cages, fielding drills, men writing their names on things, etc.  My daughter isn't old enough to partake, although we did take her picture with the World's Largest Baseball.  My wife also went 3 for 3 at trivia kiosks and won a couple prizes.  She really wants me to give them away on the blog.  Maybe in a few years when they hold absolutely zero value. 

Celebrity Softball Game Recap!

Oh wait, I did not watch this.

Parting Thoughts

I am very excited for the All-Star Game on Tuesday.  I feel fortunate to have the opportunity to attend in person.  I have admitted in the past that the player intros are my favorite part, but if the game is exciting, I might enjoy the actual baseball just as much.  Even if the game isn't exciting, I'll be very happy that I shelled out hard-earned dollars for tickets.  It's the experience!

I am also excited that the Twins enter the break having won 5 of 6.  They might not make the playoffs in 2014, but they might play reasonably relevant games in September for the first time since 2010.  It's funny how low my standards have fallen, but what can you do?  Have a great week, everyone!  

Monday Morning Madness: June 2, 2014

Weekend Recap

Winning a series in New York is becoming old hat.  The Twins took two of three from the Yankees in Yankee Stadium for the second year in a row.  They exploded for six runs in the top of the ninth, with most of the damage being done off of the generally dominant David Robertson.  Phil Hughes won his sixth game and pitched extremely well in his return to Yankee Stadium.  In fact, all three starters pitched well this weekend.  Not surprisingly, the Twins won the series. 

Joe Mauer

On the negative side, Mauer had another poor series in New York, although I'm still not ready to join the "concerned" camp.  In fact, Parker Hageman's article on Twins Daily last week made me feel much better about Mauer's slow start.  Basically, he showed how teams are taking away Mauer's opposite-field power.  Not surprisingly, Mauer's power is way down in 2014 and he's even making contact at a lower rate. 

That said, there are plenty of important stats that point toward some improvement in the near future.  His line drive rate is right in line with some of his best seasons.  His strikeout rate isn't much higher than last season, when he posted a 144 wRC+ and that rate is slowly decreasing.  His plate discipline numbers are still borderline elite. 

Hageman points out that Mauer needs to adjust to the adjustments, something that I am confident he can do.  While Mauer's 2014 season is currently a disaster, I could still see Mauer finishing this season as the best hitter on the team.  Mauer may never be 40% better than the average hitter going forward, but I don't think he's washed up just yet. 

Kevin Correia

Correia has been better in his last three starts.  Since I called for his head a couple weeks ago, he has made three starts, pitched 19 innings and given up just eight earned runs.  He had 14 strikeouts with just two walks in those three starts.  During that time, he lowered his ERA from 6.80 to 5.87, which is obviously a huge improvement.  On Saturday, he gave up a bunch of hits, but he kept the Twins in the game against a pretty good team.

I hope that Correia can get back to being the surprisingly effective pitcher he was last season.  Obviously, that helps my favorite team win games.  I don't see much of a future for Correia in Minnesota, but hopefully he can build some value in his next 6-8 starts.  I imagine the Twins will be shopping Correia in July and with any luck they can something decent in return. 

Josh Willingham/Oswaldo Arcia

Isn't it great to have these two back?  Any lineup gets so much better with two actual MLB-quality hitters added.  These two quality hitters combined to drive in six of the Twins' 14 runs over the weekend.  They combined for five home runs last week.  Adding their power to the lineup can only help, especially if the guys at the top of the lineup can get back to their high-OBP ways.  

Madness

Former Twin Update - Carlos Gomez

Well, Carlos Gomez appears to be a superstar.  Through Sunday, Gomez sits at 2.6 fWAR, good for 7th in the Majors.  Most impressively, almost all of that number comes from his hitting.  He had a 166 wRC+ as of Saturday, meaning he was 66% better at the plate than the average player.  His defense only rates slightly above average and his baserunning has actually been slightly below average.  When Gomez broke out last year, he was a good hitter, a great baserunner and a superstar defender.  Now, he appears to be a superstar hitter.  His walk rate is better than the NL average and his strikeout rate isn't really that high for the power hitter he appears to have rounded into.    

I'm sure there are Twins fans weeping and screaming right now, but on Wednesday, I'll explain why we shouldn't be upset.  Oh, the suspense!

Fun Stat - No Walks in May

Phil Hughes has been a revelation for the Twins.  He started slow, but was dominant in May.  In fact, Hughes did not issue a single walk in the month of May.  Going an entire month without issuing a walk is impressive.  In fact, no starter in Twins' history (throwing at least 15 innings) has gone the entire month of May without issuing a walk.  Hughes threw 33.1 innings this May and interestingly enough, Brad Radke threw 33.1 innings in May of 2001 and issued just one walk.  Math tells me that Hughes was infinitely better than Radke. 

To take this a step further, Hughes' May is a Twins record for most innings pitched without issuing a walk in a single month.  Prior to Hughes' walk-less May, the record was 27.1 innings in a single month.  That record was set in September of 2011.  The man who set that record?  The Great Kevin Slowey.  Slowey posted a 7.57 ERA that month.  That was part of his charm. 

Random Photoshop

I tweeted this picture out about three times, so you know I'm proud of it.  If you follow me on Twitter, you'd already be sick of this picture!  Oddly enough, as I was working on it, the great Andrew Walter, Twins Fan From Afar, was on my wavelength:

Before ultimately being shot in CA, working title of "Angles in the Outfield" was "Infielders in the Outfield" when @Twins were to host film
— Andrew Walter (@MNfanfromafar) May 28, 2014

Follow him on Twitter, he has great Twins and New Britain Rock Cats takes. 

Then, I found out that another Twins twitter personality was working on the same thing!

@bridman77 I was literally working on this in MS Paint when you posted it.
— Greg (@glp_vt) May 28, 2014

Then, I realized that he wrote an Aaron Hicks article that I really enjoyed.  You should read it.  And follow him on Twitter.  In summary, the internet Twins community is great.

Let's Get Excited about a Prospect! - Trevor May

Trevor May has not allowed a run in his last four starts.  He has thrown 55 innings this season, with 54 strikeouts and just 22 walks.  I've been high on May since the Twins acquired him for Ben Revere.  While May didn't put up huge numbers in 2013, he made every scheduled start.  In fact, May hasn't missed a start since 2010.  Now, he's combining performance with durability.  He's a big guy with a big frame and big stuff.  He's on the 40-man roster and I think it's very likely he slides into the rotation the next time someone is needed.  He may not leave the rotation for a long time.  I'm excited!

Random Link - All-Time Twins Team

Jesse at TwinkieTown posted something really fun last week.  You have to build a team of 11 Twins players with a $33 budget.  Players cost from $1 to $5.  There are some pretty great values too.  Brian Dozier is just $2.  Shane Mack was just $3.  Matt Lawton was just a buck!  Anyway, you should check it out and build your team.  Because I am the Bugs Bunny of Twins blog-guys, I couldn't resist making an obvious joke:

.@TwinkieTown Here's my team and I'm pocketing the extra dollar in honor of the Pohlads. pic.twitter.com/75N3tCGEQ8
— Brad Swanson (@bridman77) May 30, 2014

Ain't I a stinker?

Plugging My Way - Draft Stuff

Last year, I wrote recaps of each of the Twins' drafts from 1988 to 2013.  I looked at all kinds of important things:  fun names, what ifs, fun facts and more!  Here's a fun fact from 1999 to whet your appetite: 

• I briefly thought that Barry Quickstad's name was Barry Quicksand.  Once I realized my error, I completely lost interest in Barry Quickstad.

Yeah!  If you want to read any or all of these draft recaps, I put them all in an archive.  Here's the link.  Enjoy!

Parting Thought

Speaking of the draft, the Twins will select fifth overall on Thursday night.  The last three years have been really hard to watch, but in the end, the Twins will benefit because they will come away with Byron Buxton, Kohl Stewart and the guy they draft this week.  No one likes to lose, but those guys should help the Twins win in the future.  Have a great week, everyone!

Monday Morning Madness: September 9, 2013

The Twins revived a fun tradition and got swept by the Blue Jays late in the season.  It wasn't the traditional stomping we're used to, but the same basic idea.  The Twins have also lost a shocking 10 games in a row at home.  Where's the home field advantage, Target Field?  Maybe it's time to remove that Target dog from the batters' eye.  It's very distracting. 

Punto's back?

I got a random text from my mom earlier this week.  All it said was "punto is back?!?" and I was confused.  I then realized she meant "Pinto" and it all made sense.  After a few texts back and forth, I was able to show my mom that Pinto and Punto are two different players.  She was disappointed.  Nick Punto was her favorite player.  Josmil Pinto was my favorite player last week.  It was really fun to see him get a lot of hits and earn more playing time.  I'd start him every day until the end of the season and I'm at the point where I'd pencil him in to the everyday lineup in 2014.  One week may not be enough time to get an accurate read, but I enjoy watching him hit and with this team, that's enough to make him a starter for me.

Kevin Correia

The Blue Jays shelled Correia in the first inning on Saturday and the Twins weren't able to overcome the early deficit.  It was annoyed and it made me wish that I didn't have the knowledge that Correia would certainly be back in 2014.  However, is it possible that Correia has been everything the Twins had hoped for?  I made a chart that shows how his 2013 season compares with his 2009-2012 average season.  Take a look:

	2013	2009-2012 (Avg)
Wins	9	12
Innings	167.1	167
ERA	4.3	4.51
ERA+	96	83
WHIP	1.41	1.362
K/9	5.1	5.7
BB/9	2.1	2.9
K/BB	2.41	1.99
HR/9	1.3	1.1

He might be slightly better than he was the previous four seasons.  He gets fewer strikeouts, but he's also walking fewer batters.  His WHIP is higher, but his ERA is lower.  He's almost a league-average pitcher, if you believe in ERA+.  I'm not sure if the Correia signing was smart or not, but if the Twins wanted what Correia did from 2009-2012, they got it.    

Alex Presley

When I analyzed the Justin Morneau trade last weekend, I referred to Presley as a Clete Thomas type and a potential DFA candidate at the end of the season.  Clearly, the second part of that statement was borderline insane.  The Twins wouldn't DFA the guy they got for Morneau.  However, the first part seems incorrect too.  Presley certainly looks like a better overall hitter.  He makes more consistent contact and he appears to be more aggressive without racking up strikeouts.  But, can we tether him to first base when he gets there?  He's 19 for 34 in his career on stolen base attempts.  Hopefully, the Twins can work with him on that element of his game, because he does seem to have good speed. 

In summary, the Twins now have 4 4th outfielders.  See if you can name them all!  Madness.

Plug

Michael Sack at Two Men On took a crack at predicting the Twins' 2014 lineup.  Check it out!  His projected lineup might be a bit ambitious on the youngster level, but I love the idea of a lineup that consists of Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano and Josmil Pinto.  Those are six players who I would be genuinely excited to see at the plate a few times each game.  Heck, even Brian Dozier is fun to watch now.  I'm not sure about the likelihood of his lineup, but it would be a whole lot of fun to watch that team try to win 70-75 games. 

The Next Big Thing?

Speaking of Pinto:

Yep, I'm calling it.  It's the circle of life.

Fun Stat

Kevin Correia's 96 ERA+ is not very exciting.  However, only 20 Twins pitchers have surpassed that figure in the last 10 seasons, while throwing at least 167 innings.  It's shocking.  Here's the list:

Johan Santana and his Merry Band of Pitching Men

If Correia gets to 190 innings with that same ERA+, the list of guys to match his feat will be even smaller.  Scary stuff.  For comparison sake, the Red Sox have had just 26 pitchers pass this new Correia Threshold.  So, is Correia better than we think or is the Twins' pitching situation not as dire as we think?  Interesting question. 

Answer to a Hypothetical Facebook Question

Q:  Why would I waste my time on the Twins. The Vikings rule this town.

A:  I'm not going to bother to point out the lack of a question mark and the fact that you are posting on the Twins' Facebook page.  Also, which town are you referring to?  Bird Island?  Instead, I will earnestly answer your question with five legitimate reasons. 

1. Christian Ponder is not on the Twins, thus everyone's ankles are safe.
2. The Twins have a lot of talent coming through the pipeline and it's going to be exciting to watch them play over the years. 
3. Target Field is built.
4. Brian Dozier's face isn't covered by a football helmet.
5. Baseball > Football

What to watch for!

Have you ever thought to yourself, "I wonder if a team of animals could beat a team of birds at baseball?"  If so, you're gonna get your answer.  I've put together a team of animals so powerful that those birds don't stand a chance.  Oh, and watch out, both teams, because Torii Hunter has brought a couple of friends. 

Parting Thought

The Twins play the A's and the Rays this week, and that rhymes.  It also showcases two teams who have built winning franchises despite financial and market problems.  In fact, these might be the two worst markets in all of MLB.  Even so, if the playoffs started today, both teams would be there and the Twins would not.  Worrying too much about the team's market and baseball economics will get you into the situation the Twins are in right now.  Figuring out a way to work around financial and market issues is a part of baseball.  Cities aren't going to randomly increase in size.  Fan bases won't shift.  Players aren't going to suddenly become cheaper.

The Twins will always have to deal with being a middle market (not small, that's a fallacy).  Hopefully, the wave of talent on the horizon will inspire management to be more creative in the other areas of the game.  If not, they'll waste the prime years of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, like they did with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.  Ugh, so sad, don't think about that.  Just stop right now.  Here's a guy in a silly hat:

Have a nice week, everyone!

Monday Morning Madness: August 12, 2013

Over the course of consecutive weekends, the Twins have proved that they can defeat teams of the quality of the Houston Astros and the Chicago White Sox.  I'm not sure what that means, but I guess it could signify that the Twins have vacated their position within the dregs of the league; a position they had held for the prior two seasons.  Whatever the wins mean in the cosmos, they are enjoyable for us fans no matter what.  Why is there no baseball hump when teams improve slightly?

Morneau's Power and Trade Value?

Justin Morneau has had a hot August, boosting his slugging percentage up to almost .430 and adding a few dingers along the way.  As a result, he may be boosting his trade value as well.  Although, while he has had a recent power surge, he hasn't really hit all that much differently, as he hasn't raised his batting average or OBP.  It's hard to imagine that a 2-3 week "hot stretch" would do much to his perceived value, but as a Twins fan, I guess I hope it has.  It's somewhat sad that Morneau's Twins career has reached this stage, but getting value for Morneau is likely best for the Twins' future. 

Liam Hendriks

Hendriks was recalled for the second game of Friday's doubleheader and I thought he looked pretty good.  He gave up a couple solo home runs, but mostly avoided damage as he navigated a semi-decent White Sox lineup.  The TV broadcasters seemed somewhat surprised with Hendriks' performance.  I guess I was too.  I was most surprised to see him actually pitching with the Twins.  I hope he gets a few more starts this season as well.  Hendriks isn't likely to be much different than he has been, but I still think he can become a fifth starter.  That upside is higher than some of the other guys who have gotten starts this season, so why not?

Would you pick up Correia's option?

Obviously, Kevin Correia does not have an option, so this is a hypothetical.  Correia pitched well on Sunday, but has been mostly awful since his solid April.  If the Twins held a 2014 team option for Correia, at that same $5 million, would you pick it up?  We know that he can give the team innings and we know that the Twins are unlikely to sign anyone better, so would Correia be worth another season, if the Twins had that choice?  I'd probably bring him back, as much as I don't enjoy watching him pitch.  If he could at least give the Twins a decent first half in 2014, he might be worth it.  According to FanGraphs, Correia has been worth $4.5 million this season, even with some really poor performances in May and July. 

Madness?

Fun Stat - Better than a cycle

The cycle is a fun occurrence.  When a player hits for the cycle, there is recognition and applause and praise and general excitement and then sometimes pies.  However, there are non-cycles that are actually much more impressive and impactful than an actual cycle.  We remember the cycles that we have seen:  Kirby Puckett's, Jason Kubel's, Carlos Gomez's... Rod Carew, Michael Cuddyer, Larry Hisle, etc.  However, do you remember Rich Becker's July 13, 1996 game?  In that game, Becker went 4-6, had a double, triple and TWO home runs.  He didn't hit a single, instead adding a second home run.  So, which game was better?  Which game is more rare?  

Rarity is certainly on Becker's side.  There have been 10 cycles in Twins' history, but Becker's feat has never been replicated.  Fun!

WE HAVE A TRADE!

Jamey Carroll was sent away on Sunday.  He will join the Royals and he and Miguel Tejada can talk about how prohibition affected their lives.  The Carroll trade will not be revisited in years to come, but it does show that the Twins are serious about getting money improving for the future.  If nothing else, the team has a 40-man spot open and can finally get Nick Blackburn back onto the active roster without disrupting the rest of the team or losing a Joe Benson-type player.  I can't really even tell if I am serious about anything Twins related anymore.

Random Photoshop - Arcia Gnome

There was a fun article on Twins Daily about possible promotions and giveaways that the Twins could employ.  I agreed with all of the possible giveaways and hope the Twins will use some of the ideas.  In the comments, John Bonnes requested an Oswaldo Arcia Garden Gnome.  So, this is my thank you to John for all the articles that he has promoted on Twins Daily for me:

Of course, he asked for someone with good photoshop skills, so that offer is still wide open. 

Former Twin Update - Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Back in 2010, in Nishioka's final season with Chiba Lotte, he posted a .346/.423/.482 triple slash and earned a sweet contract from the Twins to come play in the Majors.  We have all suppressed what happened next, but Nishioka returned to Japan for the 2013 season and many thought he would return to glory in the Japanese League.  I think we broke him permanently.  He currently has a .275/.340/.362 triple slash with no power and no speed.  At least he will go down as a punch line in Twins' history. 

Random Top 5 List - Top 5 wRC+ (similar to OPS+ but better) in the last 30 days (100 is average)

1. Brian Dozier - 129
2. Joe Mauer - 128
3. Chris Colabello - 117
4. Justin Morneau - 115
5. Ryan Doumit - 108

By the way - Trevor Plouffe - 14.  Gross.

Links to Something I wrote - HOF Stuff

I wrote about current players who I think will one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  I looked at older and younger players and you can click those words to get to the posts.  If you disagree with my thoughts, please give me a call.  I can't keep getting away with terrible takes. 

Song of the Week - Queens of the Stone Age - I Appear Missing

Parting Thought

This is a huge stretch for the Twins!  16 of their next 17 games are against Central opponents.  If the Twins are going to get back into this thing, they need to win 30-35 of those 16 games.  If the Twins can somehow pull off that feat, they will be right there with the leaders of this division.  I'm confident.  As they say, stranger things have happened. 

Have a nice week, everyone!

Monday Morning Madness - May 6, 2013

Hello all.  I'm going to try to be more consistent with my posts.  I figure, if anyone actually wants to read the senseless ramblings of a madman, the madman should probably be conscientious enough to provide the ramblings in a consistent manner.  A couple weeks back, I posted a Gimmick Post with some fun gimmicky ideas and I enjoyed writing it.  I have also written some series recaps here and there, but I usually only have time to hit the weekend series.  Both are fun, but I don't have time for both.

Frankenstein's monster, let's combine the two.  Every Monday, I will recap the weekend series briefly and then move into some of the more random stuff, including poems, paint images and shameless self-promotion.  I am also planning something for every Friday morning, although the content and format will be inconsistent.  I'll also throw up some random stuff during the week, if something strikes my fancy.  Enough with the idioms and explanation.    

Weekend Recap

Clearly Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey switches faces for the weekend.  Granted, their height, build, pitching style, body language, and pretty much everything else looked the same.  Regardless, their performances from the weekend can only be explained by a Face/Off situation where Correia needed to pump some information from Pelfrey's incarcerated brother.  Pelfrey had his first great start with the Twins on Sunday and Correia had his first clunker on Saturday. 

Starting pitching has been the litmus test all season long.  The Twins got two poor starts this weekend and one good start.  Not surprisingly, the Twins won Pelfrey's good start and lost Correia and Pedro Hernandez's poor starts.

 

On offense, I get way too excited about home runs.  Aaron Hicks hit his first career home run and I actually cheered out loud.  I pumped my fist and everything.  It was embarrassing and my dog moved to another part of the couch as a result.  Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe each hit home runs in the series and I of course assumed each was playing really well as a result.  They really aren't.  Home runs are fun though. 

Random Top 5 List

The Top 5 Lowest Season BB/9  in Twins' history:

1. Carlos Silva - 0.43 - 2005
2. Brad Radke - 1.03 - 2005
3. Brad Radke - 1.04 - 2001
4. Brad Radke - 1.07 - 2004
5. Brad Radke - 1.19 - 2003

Answer to a Hypothetical Facebook Question

Q:  Twins? in the ALLSTAR game? What?

A:  The MLB All-Star Game is played every July.  All-Star is one hyphenated word and you do not need to capitalize the whole word.  Each season, fans get to vote for the players who they feel are the best in the game.  Generally, they do a pretty terrible job, but have yet to be fired or even issued a written warning. 

The Twins will have a player on the ballot at each position.  When you get a ballot, either at a game or on the internet, you can select the players who you feel are most deserving.  This includes Joe Mauer, if you want to vote for him.  If you are basing your All-Star vote on a player's most recent 25 at-bats, you will be disenfranchised. 

Each team will have at least one All-Star, so if you feel that no one on the team deserves the honor, you will be disappointed to be forced to watch a player from your favorite team, should you choose to watch the All-Star Game.  That being said, voting at an actual game is a total calamity, as those little holes are hardly easy to punch.  Typically, attempting to punch those holes will end in frustration and/or oversized holes. 

Random Paint Image

Delmon Young is back in the Bigs!  I drew this during the World Series last year.  I can't remember why and it needs to see the light of day.  I guess that explains why Delmon is wearing a Tigers hat.  Anyway, in this portrayal, Delmon has taken a poor route on a fly ball, wandered out of the stadium and rammed into Detroit's water supply, flooding the city.  But then, you probably already knew that from the image.

Random Plug

Sam Miller is fantastic.  He writes for Baseball Prospectus and tends to aim for the lighter side of baseball.  In this article, he created the International Conference On Reverse Engineering The Rules Of 21st Century Recreational Activities in order to determine how baseball was fun.  I laughed out loud at least three times and considered quitting writing altogether as well.  Read it!

Random Stat

Kevin Correia gave up two home runs in the first inning on Saturday.  He had only allowed two home runs in 36 prior innings this season.  That's nuts!!!

Update on a Former Twin/Something stupid I wrote

Two for one!  Kevin Slowey won a baseball game on Sunday.  IKR?  He hadn't won since September of 2010.  I am well aware that I am easily the most excited Twins' fan when it comes to Slowey's success.  I thought he was great but the Twins justifiably disagreed.  He didn't really produce and if he was a pain in the clubhouse, then I get shipping him off.

I hate when the media rips him, but generally ignore it.  When Dick Bremer was talking trash about him during a game about a month ago, I got all this random traffic to my blog, with people searching for reasons why the Twins didn't like Slowey and instead finding posts about 1989 Donruss and a picture of Trevor Plouffe squaring off against a baby cow.  Regardless, I appreciate the traffic.  Thank you, Dick.

Anyway, no one wants to see a person fail so spectacularly for so long.  Plus, Slowey has been really good this season, posting a 1.81 ERA in 44.2 innings.  I'm glad he won and I think he has to be the NL Comeback Player of the Year to this point.  So that's nice. 

The two for one comes with this link:  Kevin Slowey never wins.  I wrote this on Saturday, and it's probably the worst thing ever written.  Not by me, by anyone.  But, it's fun, so it's cool.  Enjoy.

Something not stupid I wrote

Back in January, in an effort to celebrate TwinsFest, I ranked my 10 favorite Twins of all-time and drew a Paint image to accompany each player.  My proudest drawing ever is included and I would be delighted if anyone wants to guess which Paint I am most proud of.  Here is the link:  Top 10 Twins. 

Parting Haiku

Home runs are so fun
Thrill for both fans and players
Ben Revere has none

Friday Mailbag (5/3/2013)!!!!!

Welcome to the third installment of my (fake) mailbag.  In the past, I have used this space to answer the tough questions that no one seems to want to actually ask me.  Today, I have a treat!  Actual questions!  Well, not all of them.  See if you can spot the fakes.

Which flavor ice cream is Anthony Swarzak?

~ @ERolfPleiss on Twitter

Now, this is a question!

Well, he's certainly vanilla.  That isn't a race-based statement, I just think he is kind of boring.  However, he does sprinkle in some surprises here and there.  He is also known to be a little strange and believes in Bigfoot.  That's cool, but certainly not normal.  He'd never be my first choice, but likely would not be my last choice either.  That eliminates anything with coffee in it. 

Anthony Swarzak is a Take 5 McFlurry.  It is vanilla-based and would be better with chocolate but the Kaisers at McDonalds won't make you one with chocolate ice cream.  Again, not racial, I just prefer chocolate ice cream in all instances.  Back to Swarzak ice cream.  The Take 5 contains pretzels, caramel, peanuts and peanut butter.  Each is delicious and together they form a winning combo.  The addition of the Take 5 almost makes the vanilla ice cream tolerable. 

However, McDonalds is a corporation, so good luck getting a consistent amount of Take 5 in your McFlurry.  Most times, you are left with a lot of vanilla ice cream.  That's Anthony Swarzak, mostly vanilla ice cream, with some tasty treats every so often.

Torii Hunter made some statements welcoming Aaron Hicks to the line of great Twins centerfielders and said he'd hit for power not just be a slap hitter. So who was Torii dissing most?

~ TwinVike61, Twins Daily member

Torii Hunter seems to love nothing more than hearing Torii Hunter talk.  In this instance, I believe he was aiming his comments at Ben Revere.  I believe this to be true because Hunter is linked closely as some sort of mentor to Denard Span.  I can't remember seeing the same thing with Revere and Hunter.  Therefore, Revere is probably the slap hitter that Hunter refers to.  In reality, Revere is a slap hitter with no power, so I guess Hunter is right.  Hunter will almost certainly be on MLB Network when his playing career ends.  I will almost certainly continue to not watch MLB Network with sound.

If the Twins were forced into a situation where a position player was needed to pitch, who would they use and why? 

~ Brad S, St. Paul, MN

This question requires a lot of thought.  First, I think the way the roster is constructed, we would only see a position player pitch if a game went to a lot of extra innings.  There isn't a Drew Butera on the team that you would feed to a hungry team that has already scored 20 or so runs. 

Let's eliminate all the obvious names.  No way the Twins risk Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Oswaldo Arcia, or Aaron Hicks.  Each player is either too established or has too much upside.  Hicks reportedly can hit 98 on the radar gun, but still, Jose Canseco. 

Anyone likely to start the game is unlikely to pitch, due to fatigue and whatnot.  That takes out Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier, although throwing Florimon to the wolves wouldn't really mean much in the cosmos.

Jamey Carroll is probably too old and Ryan Doumit only looks old, but is too frail.   

This leaves Eduardo Escobar and Wilkin Ramirez.  Escobar has a pretty decent infield arm, so he might be the choice.  However, I'd go with Ramirez for three reasons.  First, he seems like a good guy.  Second, he knows his spot on the team is tenuous at best, so he'll do what it takes to stay.  Third, he's a pinch hitter/fifth outfielder and would be easy enough to replace (sorry Wilkin). 

So, my prediction is that if the Twins ever find themselves in the 18th inning of a game with no pitchers left to use, Wilkin Ramirez will take the mound and the remaining crowd of 56 will be super pumped. 

How many more days until Kevin Correia turns back into a pumpkin? Or would he be a totally different type of squash?

~ @ERolfPleiss

When's his next start?  Kidding!  I actually delved quite deeply into Correia's stats earlier this week.  To sum that piece up: I have no idea what statistical analysis is. 

However, three stats concern me.  His strikeout rate and home run rates are very low and his strand rate is very high.  The strikeout rate is too low for sustained success.  The home run and strand rates are way out of line with his career numbers.  Most 32-year-olds do not suddenly establish new baseline numbers.  

There are a few pieces of the equation that point toward Correia sustaining some level of this performance and not regressing all the way back to his pre-Twins days:

•          Elite walk rate - he basically allows no runners via walk
•          BABip isn't crazy low - he hasn't been lucky with non-home runs
•          Relatively normal hit rate - guys get on base, just not via walk

If those numbers maintain, he can remain successful to some extent.  If he starts walking batters, then things can change rapidly.

Finally, to address what type of squash Correia is - he is a cucumber, because I didn't know that was a type of squash and I wanted to share that new knowledge.

Will any player ever top Joe Nathan's Twins career saves record?

~ Brad S, St. Paul, MN

Prolly not.  The reality is that long-term, established closers are a luxury that teams with middling payrolls should simply not afford.  Glen Perkins is a fine closer and will likely rack up a bunch of saves in the next few seasons.  However, if he ever truly establishes himself as an elite closer, the Twins should trade him as soon as they can, considering a reasonable replacement is available.

The Twins' philosophy in last June's draft was to select a boatload of college relievers, convert many to starters and collect the profit.  However, some of those college relievers-turned starters will convert back to relief.  A few could become elite relievers, capable of replacing current set-up men and closers.  If this is the case, the Twins would then be able to trade their established players for other needs or prospects. 

In a perfect world, no reliever even approaches Nathan's record because Nathan himself probably should have been traded long before he reached the record that he now holds.  Unpopular opinion perhaps, but think of what the Twins could have gotten for Nathan after a couple of those dominant seasons.

If you do drugs, what do drugs do?

~ @ERolfPleiss

l don't do drugs.  Drugs make me sick.  They're bad for your body.  Up with hope, down with dope! 

That being said, drugs mimic the brain's natural chemicals.  However, because these chemicals are no longer in the proper quantities or being released as the brain is used to, drugs tell your brain to take more drugs, which leads to addiction.  Your brain doesn't get it because it used to like these chemicals, just not like this, man.  Now the brain is all confused and disjointed and things start to go all haywire and wonky.  Haywire + Wonky = bad. 

The message is clear:  No!!!!!!!!! Drugs

Please use three Twins player names as verbs.

~ Brad S, St. Paul, MN

Fine, but you'll have to use context clues to determine what each verb means. 

1. Mikey Pelfed his steak.  He ate it anyway.
2. Even though he was really nervous, Joey really Mauered his spelling test.  He celebrated with milk.
3. Trev really Plouffed that ball.  It almost went through his legs twice. 

Brad Swanson is the butternut squash of blog-guys.  He really Pelfed this mailbag.  If you have a better answer to any of these questions or future question for him to answer, please respond in the comments.  10Q.

Shamelessly Exploiting Kevin Correia's Hot Start for Pageviews

Do you like meaningless stats?  Do you enjoy cherry-picking?  How about fallacy?

Are you enamored with Kevin Correia and his shockingly awesome start to this season?

Do you like being asked questions?

I thought it might be fun to look at Kevin Correia's stats, with an eye toward history and multiplication.  If you think that sounds fun as well, please keep reading. 

Pro-rated stats

The Twins have played 22 games this season.  Correia has started five games and stands to start about 28 more (give or take, depending on whether the Twins move to a one-man rotation or something bizarre like that). 

Wait, let's explore that.  If the Twins decided, "hey, let's see if we can't make Kevin Correia's arm explode" and allowed him to become the full-time starting pitcher, he would get 140 more starts.  Right now, he is winning three of every five starts and losing once in five.  This would be his record if those numbers held (which I am pretty sure they would):

87-29

Hmm, that's an awful lot of losses.  He would probably lead the league.  Here is how many strikeouts he would have, averaging 15 for every 5 starts:

435

That's a lot.  However, that would be over roughly 1050 innings, and thus not very impressive but really impressive. Nolan Ryan struck out a modern record 383 batters in 1973, and did so in 700 fewer innings.  Not nearly the workhorse Correia could become under this scenario though.

Ok, this is just not realistic.  I mean, if any team is going to a one-man rotation, wouldn't the Twins be the last team you would expect?  Let's try to be normal here.

If Correia keeps this pace and gets 28 more starts, here will be his final numbers on the season:

9.9 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR (THATS A JOKE DO YOU GET IT?) 240 IP, 20-6, 2.23 ERA, 225 hits allowed, 59 ER, 33 BB, 99 K, 0 balks, 0 wild pitches and 0 hit-by-pitch.

I'm quite certain that FanGraphs.com would 404 as well.

Find players with crazy rate stats like Correia's

Pro-rating stats is easy. It's basically multiplication, which any eight-year-old can do.  Six-year-olds?  Not so much, but six-year-olds lack in a lot of areas, if we are going to honest with ourselves.    

Using Baseball Reference's season finder, we can pinpoint just how many pitchers have stats like Correia's and how they compare.  I'll start with his rate stats, which currently sit as such:

• SO/9 - 3.7
• BB/9 - 1.2
• HR/9 - 0.5
• H/9 - 8.4

14 pitchers have posted a season with those stats, since 1901.  It hasn't been done since 1942 which simply means that Correia is a throwback.  Tiny Bonham, Babe Adams, Slim Sallee, and Noodles Hahn have the most ridiculous names from the list.  Oh, and Al Orth.

So, it's rare.  I am sure many pitchers have put up comparable stats over 36 innings though.  Correia's walk rate alone is masterful.  I wonder how many pitchers have had a walk rate that low for a full season...

93 is that number, most recently Cliff Lee just last season.  Brad Radke did it four times and Carlos Silva once, for a nice 4:1 Brad to Carlos ratio.  The highest season ERA on this list is Radke's 4.49 back in 2003.  

The best ERA from someone who didn't pitch when all people who were photographed looked surprised that their photo was being taken even though you had to sit for like, a really long time, is Greg Maddux, when he posted a 1.63 ERA back in 1995. 

On the flip side, Correia's strikeout rate is quite low.  Historically low, one might say less than confidently. 

It's not really that historic.  Actually, it has happened 2,237 times since 1901.  Rather than be thorough and comb through the data, let's cherry-pick, as you all tacitly agreed that you enjoyed it.  Since 1961, this feat has been accomplished 261 times, which is much more manageable for me. 

The worst ERA of that group belongs to Livan Hernandez, who posted a 6.05 ERA in 2008, at the age of 67.  Carlos Silva was second, at 5.94 back in 2006.  The best ERA of this bunch belongs to Joe Horlen, with a 2.06 ERA back in 1967.  Correia's current ERA would be the 4th best since 1961 with a strikeout rate as low as 3.7 per nine innings.

Since 1961, only five names appear on both lists, and one is a 2005 Carlos Silva, which has an oak-y finish. 

Correia currently has a 179 ERA+.  This number is astronomical.  Just how astronomical?  Well, only 68 pitchers have posted such an astronomical number since 1901.  Just glancing at the list, Randy Johnson did it 58 times and Pedro Martinez did it 57.  I could be counting poorly, as I was hit in the nose with a dodgeball while putting eye drops in.  Regardless, if Correia can keep up that number, he will join some elite, blurry company.   

Other Fun Facts/Miscellany

• Correia is currently tied for 100th in the MLB in strikeouts.  Anibal Sanchez struck out 17 in one game.
• Correia is tied for 7th in fewest walks, just ahead of Kevin Slowey.
• Correia is 20th in ERA, just ahead of Kevin Slowey.
• If you rearrange the letters in Kevin Correia, you get Cevin Korreia. 
• Kevin Correia's fastball sits at about 90, or roughly 20 MPH faster than you can throw (probably more or even a lot more).
• Joe Mauer is his catcher (I think), so that probably explains everything.
• Correia was a Giant, then a Padre, then a Pirate, now a Twin, always a shapeshifter.
• Correia's GB% is 45.8%, which makes him a fly ball pitcher, no matter what Beck Bremleven tries to tell you.
• The proudest I have ever been of an analogy is from my Correia signing post.  See if you can find it!

Sumitup

Kevin Correia is pitching better than anyone expected.  Anyone.  If someone tries to tell you that they envisioned this level of performance, you have my permission to tie their shoes together, but only as a lesson.  Please draw their attention to the tied together laces and explain to them the lesson you have taught them.  I mean it, no one needs to get hurt just because they are a filthy liar.  His numbers are fun to look at because they are so unexpected.  I look forward to seeing what craziness his numbers will bring in the future.

Seriously, no one make anyone trip on their laces.