Twin of the Future - Joe Benson

This Twin of the Future is also a Twin of the past.  Joe Benson was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft.  He has tools.  He has power, speed, an arm (yeah yeah, he has two, a good arm, smart guy), and he is a good fielder.  The one tool he doesn't seem to have is the hit tool.  Regardless, he showed enough in the Minors to earn a September call-up in 2011.  He and 2006 first round pick Chris Parmelee were given some time that month.  They were two completely different prospects.  Parmelee was a 1st round pick who didn't really show much to get excited about.  Benson was a 2nd round pick who flashed enough to be interesting.  He was the 2010 Twins Minor League Player of the Year, after all.  Well, Parmelee thrived that month and Benson floundered.

Benson's 2012 was about as bad a year as a prospect can have.  Benson was sent to AAA after Spring Training.  Had he been successful, he may have earned some MLB time around June or July (maybe earlier, I have no idea).  Instead, he went the absolute opposite direction.  He was so awful that he was sent down to AA, where he had already played over 200 career games.  Instead of dominating the league as I am sure the Twins had hoped, he was terrible there as well.  Then, he got hurt.  Then, he came back.  He proved he could hit in Rookie and A ball, then resumed being disappointing in a level much too low for a player of his experience.  Then, he got hurt.  Specifically, he had knee surgery late in the season, will miss about 3-4 months, but should be ready for Spring Training in 2013. 

So, why even be excited about a guy who failed as a big leaguer (in an extremely small sample), 

then seemingly regressed as a minor league player, then got injured a whole bunch?  Well, those tools are still there.  At his peak, Benson has the ability to be a 20 HR, 20 SB type of player, with some upside from there.  He is a good enough fielder to play all three outfield positions, as he has the range for center and the arm for right.  That player has a ton of value.  That player has statistics that don't look super exciting, but ends up with a 5.5 WAR.  That player reminds me a lot of Shane Mack.

Ok, all Mackness aside, as I am going to be writing about him soon.  Benson reminds me of two current MLB players, depending on how things shake out.  One is Jayson Werth and the other is Drew Stubbs.  At his peak, Werth was a player with a 4 WAR, 20-20 HR/SB (sometimes more HR), and could play the outfield adequately.  Benson is a better fielder.  Stubbs had that same type of upside.  He even flashed it in 2010, when he had 22 HR, 30 SB and played a decent center field.  Stubbs has had issues with contact since that breakout year, with it all falling apart in 2012, to the tune of a 61 OPS+.  Stubbs has major contact issues, and strikes out a ton.  Werth only strikes out a lot. 

So, which one does Benson become?  Maybe neither.  However, if Benson can cut his strikeouts down, he can have a Werthwhile career.  If not, he might be too Stubby to last.  Wordplay!  It really does seem that contact and strikeouts are the key.  His power did disappear a bit last year, but that could have more to do with the injuries.  Knee surgery also worry me a bit, as it could sap some of his speed.  Diminished speed would make Benson a lot less exciting.  If the tools he has always had are still present in 2013, he jumps right back to the top of Twins prospect lists for me.  I can't quit those tools.

He will be 25 (25!) when 2013 starts.  2013 is make or break time, and that might be an understatement.  It is even too premature to label Benson a AAAA player, as he hasn't proved he can cut it in AAA.  The outfield picture is only going to get more crowded, as Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are likely ready for AAA themselves.  Further down the line, there are even more talented outfielders to watch for.  If Benson wants to have a career with Minnesota, he had better translate tools into performance, or he will be out of the Twins' plans.

It is entirely possible that Benson seizes an opportunity and wins a spot with the Twins in 2013.  Terry Ryan recently said that no one is untouchable on this team.   The Twins could go completely loco and trade Josh Willingham and Denard Span this off-season, in their eternal quest for good starting pitching.  If that happens, a corner spot would seem to be right there for the taking.  Benson is certainly good enough with the glove to make that work. 

Will he hit enough?  You can't steal first base, as they say.  You also can't hit a home run while striking out.  Or wait, can you?  If so, that might be a sight to see.  Unlikely.  Anyway, Benson will have to make better contact and cut his strikeouts down.  Some strikeouts are fine, but the 7:1 K to BB ratio he flashed in 2011 (in a small sample) will simply not work.  Benson could be a late bloomer, or a player that simply needs a lot of at bats in a new league to adjust.  If either of those scenarios are correct, the Twins should be patient.  The payoff could be Werth it.  I am so sorry.      

Twin of the Future? - Niko Goodrum

Niko Goodrum is far from an elite prospect.  He was a 2nd round pick in 2010 out of a high school in Georgia.  Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus both listed Goodrum as the 19th best prospect in what is generally considered a weak Twins farm system.  Aaron Gleeman listed him 16th and Seth Stohs listed him 19th.  Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com did not have him in his top 20 and Keith Law did not have him in his top 10 (which really should not surprise you if you read the previous few sentences). The rankings are not exciting, but at the same time, I can't help but have an interest in this particular player. 

I am not going to pretend that I have seen any more of Goodrum than a few YouTube clips, but I will say that what I have read about him has me intrigued.  He is listed at 6' 3" and 175 lbs.  He is only 20 years old, so he will likely add some size.  If he can, the height could help produce some powerful swings.  He has a very strong arm and according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, he is a hard worker, which we all know goes a lot way in this organization (probably all others too).  The fact that he runs well could result in a player that plays up the middle, can steal some bases and hit for some power.  That kind of player has immense value.

However, his projectable size could work against him as well.  If he fills out too much, he may slow down and lose range.  If that happens, he may have to move off of short.  There is also the possibility that he never fills out and doesn't hit enough to play any position.  In addition, Goodrum is somewhat old for rookie ball, and his stats aren't eye-popping for a player repeating a level.  Frankly, his numbers aren't that exciting for a player in his first year at that level.  His numbers point toward decent to good on-base skills, with little power.  His K:BB ratio is good, but it is hard for me to know how much that represents a more patient hitter or an inexperienced set of pitching staffs.  His walk rate has increased from last year, and he deserves credit for that.

I have read that some think he may be a future centerfielder, which could be great.  Personally, I think that third base could be a landing spot, especially if he does add some power to his game.  He clearly has the arm strength for that position and working hard to learn the position seems like something he would be willing to do.  The nice thing is that he does seem to be a player who will be versatile enough in the field to find a home, as he was working a bit at second base last year as well.

I would think that Goodrum would go to Beloit next year, as a 21 year old entering his third full pro season.  The odds of seeing Goodrum in Minnesota before 2015 are pretty small.  In fact, there are pretty good odds that he never gets to Minnesota at all.  That is just the way of the minor league world though.  Most minor leaguers don't get to the Majors.  In fact, most minor leaguers aren't prospects at all, for this very reason.  As far as I am concerned, there are two types of minor league players.  There are guys with upside and guys without upside.  Niko Goodrum has upside, which makes him a prospect and makes him interesting to me.