Minnesota Twins Makin' Moves - Ryan Doumit for Sean Gilmartin and more!

The Twins have been busy this off-season.  They started with a bang, signing Jason Bartlett to a minor league deal.  From there, they made some minor additions to the starting rotation, adding Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes.  In all, the Twins suddenly seemed committed to contending and shockingly committed to spending some Pohlad dough.  The Twins have continued to be busy, so I thought it would be fun to recap some of their recent moves.

Liam Hendriks designated for assignment

This move surprised me, but didn't bother me.  It was very similar to the Joe Benson DFA during the 2013 season.  I had high hopes for the player once upon a time, but those hopes had waned and their losses will almost certainly have no effect on the Twins in the short- or long-term.  Hendriks was the Twins' 2011 Minor League Pitcher of the Year and had looked like a potential back-end starter.  He made his MLB debut in that 2011 season, at the ripe age of 22.

His brief MLB career has been somewhere between a tire fire and a blimp explosion, depending on how you use the "terrible things" spectrum.  In 156 innings, Hendriks has a 6.06 ERA, 100 strikeout and 46 walks.  His 2 and 13 record means little, but looks really, really bad.  Hendriks shuffled between AAA and Minnesota for most of 2012 and 2013 and never found a groove in the Majors. 

He'll be just 25 next year and he has had some success with AAA Rochester.  His 3.61 ERA in 254 innings looks nice, but last season he had a 4.67 ERA in 16 starts.  In addition, his AAA strikeout rate is a paltry 16.9%, significantly below the MLB average and likely much higher than he could ever actually produce against Major League hitters.  In the Minors, Hendriks walks just about no one.  In the Majors, he walks some guys.  With his stuff and lack of a strikeout pitch, that difference is massive. 

I like Hendriks, but I'd say there is a roughly 0.0001% chance the Twins ever regret this move. 

Jason Kubel is signed to a Minor League Contract

Welcome back, Kubes!  Just two seasons ago, Kubel hit .253/.327/.506, good for a 116 wRC+.  He was basically 16% better than the average offensive player.  One season later, he posted a .216/.293/.317 line, good for a 61 wRC+.  He was roughly 16% better than the average 8th grader.  The Diamondbacks shipped him off to the Indians for a PTBNL in late August and did so with absolutely zero regret.  He barely played in Cleveland. 

How could he fall so far in one season?  He hit 30 home runs in 2012 and just 5 in 2013.  Kubel did sport an outrageously high 19% home run to fly ball ratio in 2012, which likely aided his home run total.  That said, most of his other peripheral numbers were right in line with his 2009-2011 averages, including walk rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate.  However, in 2012, his strikeout rate actually jumped about 5 points.  Then, it jumped another 5 points in 2013. 

It's very hard to hit consistently when you strikeout 30% of the time.  As a Twin, Kubel never had a strikeout rate above 21.4% (2011).  This rate has climbed in each of his last four seasons and it could be the reason why he was available on a MiLB deal.  That said, it's a low-risk, medium-reward deal.  Kubel has a clear avenue to the DH job (especially considering the Twins most recent move) and could even find time in the outfield as the Twins seem to be completely punting outfield defense right now.  If Kubel can get his contact issues under control, he could hit .250/.310/.400 or something around there and provide nice value as a DH/OF.  That's basically what Ryan Doumit provided last year.  More on him later.

Mike Pelfrey is signed for 2 years, $11 million

I did not like this move.  My knee-jerk reaction was to create a satire piece where teams thank Terry Ryan for taking Pelfrey off the market.  It's right here, if you missed it.  After thinking about the move more, I don't dislike it as much.

I don't mind Mike Pelfrey in theory, I just don't like watching him pitch.  He works really slowly and I've got things to do.  That said, he had been very durable in his career, prior to his TJ surgery.  If he can get back to being a reliable 200-inning starter, he'll have tons of value at his rate.  Getting back to that durable starter might not be the slam dunk that some Pelfrey defenders think it will be though.  He did have major surgery.  However, the success rate for guys after TJ is pretty high and he'll be just 30 next season.  I imagine he'll be back to his durable, slow, chapped lip self in 2014. 

I have warmed to this move.  By definition, fifth starters are not sexy.  Reliable fifth starters are probably undervalued though.  Pelfrey isn't sexy, but he's tall.  That's something.

Ryan Doumit is traded to the Atlanta Braves for Sean Gilmartin

Wow, this move is pleasantly surprising.  As I stated earlier, it's possible that the Twins could replace Doumit's production with a guy they just signed to a Minor League contract.   The Twins wisely signed Doumit for 3 million bucks in 2012 and got a 114 OPS+ from him.  They extended him for two more years during that season, at a reasonable rate.  However, he regressed offensively in 2013 and posted just a 96 OPS+.  In addition, he consistently rated as one of the worst defensive catchers and one of the worst at pitch framing. 

The Twins were able to find a suitor, and in an NL park no less!  Getting anyone for Doumit is impressive considering his age and defensive limitations.  Getting a 2011 first-round pick and the number 4 prospect in a system is very impressive.  Sean Gilmartin is a left-handed starter with a high 80s fastball, three secondary offerings and good command/control.  Sure, a hard-throwing lefty would have been nice, but those guys are superstars or super prospects.  Ryan Doumit is a role player, so you can't expect the World.

Gilmartin has a AAA strikeout rate of 15.5%, a number that Liam Hendriks scoffs at.  Gilmartin is just 23, he doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster for a couple years and has less AAA experience than Hendriks.  Advantage/scoffs, Gilmartin!  Plus, maybe he can learn a cutter or something and become a big star.  If you're going to load up on young starters who don't throw hard, they should be left-handed and they should have good command. 

I like this move for baseball reasons, but I will miss Doumit.  There was something about those black eyes that just hypnotized me.  I hope he plays well for the Braves.  The Twins have been active this off-season and I'm excited to see what comes next.  Personally, I think the Twins are batting 1.000 right now.  Each move helps in some way and that's really all you can ask for.  

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets: Worley Division Part II

Yesterday, I outlined six starting pitchers who I think the Twins should target in an effort to boost their rotation.  If you missed it, you can find it here.  I am focusing on pitchers who are far from free agency, but maybe not household names.  I want to find another Vance Worley, but this time, I'd like for it to work out a bit better.  Instead of a flood of sadness, perhaps a geyser of effective innings?

My one question to myself was why would teams give up these valuable players?  It's not like they don't have idiots checking Fangraphs for walk and ground ball rates too.  They know what xFIPs are.  However, the Phillies traded Vance Worley just one year ago.  While we all know how that turned out, it could have worked out nicely for the Twins.  I mean, Worley had an excellent rookie season in 2011.  He regressed a bit in 2012, but fought injuries too.  He was just 25 and years from free agency.   There was still reason to think he would be an effective pitcher going forward.  He certainly wasn't in 2013, although he could still bounce back. 

The Vance Worley trade looks like a failure because of how he (and Trevor May to an extent) performed, but the idea wasn't a bad one.  Find a good, but not dominant starter and add him to the back of the rotation cheaply.  Moves like those free the team up for hypothetical free agent signings and blockbuster trades that aren't likely to happen 'round these parts.  We can dream though.

Anyway, I have six more players who I think fit that Worley archetype.  Would you like to see them? 

Ivan Nova - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017

Nova probably seems like an odd inclusion.  You don't have to dig to find out why he's good, he was just good in 2013.  His 3.10 ERA was better than his 3.68 xFIP, so it's not like there's some great hidden value that some dork on Fangraphs can unearth.  To explain his inclusion, I'll create a narrative.  I just think Nova's a fine pitcher and I'm not sure a fine pitcher is right for the Yankees.  The Yankees want stars, not values.  They want CC Sabathias not Ivan Novas.  Don't get me wrong, they'll use Ivan Novas, but they prefer to have BIG STAR names instead.  Nova is a good pitcher.  His ground ball rate is outstanding, he limits walks and his strikeout rate is good, although not great.  The Twins would properly appreciate his value.  End narrative.

Wily Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

When the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse right before last season, I posited that Peralta might become available via trade.  I was completely wrong, but maybe the right deal didn't come along.  Peralta's youth and upside would make him a more expensive trade target.  His talent is so great that it might be worth paying a slight premium to acquire him.  Peralta throws hard (94-95) but it hasn't translated to MLB strikeouts just yet (16.1% K rate in 2013).  His walk rate is not high, but higher than I'd like (9.1%).  His ground ball rate is nice though (51%).  With some natural development, Peralta could still reach his lofty prospect ceiling.  Right now, he's a number 4 or 5, but he could become a 3 and maybe even a 2.  1 to watch.

David Phelps - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

Back to the Big Apple!  Phelps has shuffled between the Yankee rotation and bullpen over the past two seasons.  As a reliever, he racks up strikeouts, with a 28% rate in 2013.  As a starter, his K rate drops almost ten points, but still hovers around league-average.  His walk rate actually dipped as a starter too.  Phelps is a fly ball pitcher and we all know that left-handed power is suppressed at Target Field.  His 2013 ERA was just under five, but his xFIP was just over four.  He was lucky with HR/FB ratio, but had some bad luck with strand rate and BABIP.  In all, Phelps could be a reliable 4th or 5th starter and I can't imagine he would cost much in return.    

Todd Redmond - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 29 in 2014, Free Agent in 2020

Redmond might be a one-year wonder, but his 2013 season was a quiet breakout campaign.  Redmond basically spent all of 2009-2012 in AAA with Atlanta and Cincinnati.  The Blue Jays had some injury issues in their rotation, so Redmond got his chance.  He made 14 starts for the Blue Jays and posted a decent 4.32 ERA.  His xFIP of 4.16 nearly matches, so you can basically believe what you see on the surface.  Redmond's primary pitch is his sinker, but he has extreme fly ball tendencies.  Very odd.  Redmond gave up a lot of home runs last season, but his strikeout and walk rates were both very good and right in line with how he pitched in AAA for all those years.  The Twins have had luck with sinkerballers in the past, and if Redmond becomes available again (he was waived twice last year), he could be a decent fifth starter for a few years.  Just don't give him a Blackburn contract.

Esmil Rogers - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 28 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017

BACK TO BACK BLUE JAYS!  Canada is cool.  Rogers throws hard, with a fastball sitting 93-94.  His ERA in 2013 was a poor 4.77, but his xFIP was an acceptable 4.06.  Rogers split his season between the bullpen and rotation and actually saw his strikeout rate jump when starting (17.4% to 11.3%) although he generally struck out more batters as a reliever in the past.  Rogers gets enough ground balls and was a little unlucky with home runs last season.  Rogers isn't going to be anything more than a 4th or 5th starter, but he could fill that role very cheaply.  If nothing else, he could be Anthony Swarzak's replacement in long relief when Swarzak starts next year.  Right?

Nick Tepesch - Texas Rangers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

I'm fond of Tepesch.  In 2013, Tepesch was an early Rookie of the Year candidate, before fading hard in June and July.  He ended the season with 17 starts, an ERA of 4.84 and an xFIP of 3.82.  Tepesch is triple good - good strikeout rate, good walk rate, good ground ball rate.  He's a sinker/slider pitcher who works around 90-91.  Tepesch's slider is excellent, but his sinker and fastball were very hittable in 2013.  He's just 25, but he projects to be the Rangers' sixth starter at best, possibly lower considering they just signed Colby Lewis.  The Rangers could use a LF/DH kind of guy and the Twins have this Josh Willingham dude who they should really be considering shopping around.  It's just an idea, but Tepesch isn't bad return for a 35-year-old, soon-to-be-free agent coming of an injury-plagued season. 

That's my list, what do you think?  Obviously some of these guys are more impressive than others.  If the Twins just exchange Mike Pelfrey for Esmil Rogers in the 2014 rotation, fans should rightfully picket Target Field and post snarky  (but not clever) comments on the Twins' Facebook page.  However, if the Twins could possibly land a big free agent like Matt Garza and then make a trade for someone like Dallas Keuchel, the rotation could be pretty decent for a good while.  I'm finding it hard to believe the Twins will sign a big free agent, do you really think they'll sign two or more? 

All teams need 4th and 5th starters.  Kevin Correia is the only Twins pitcher who I would consider a reliable 4th or 5th starter.  Unfortunately, he's masquerading as their Ace.  Adding to the back of the rotation is not exciting, but it helps win games.  If Correia was the Twins' 4th best starter, the rotation could be pretty good.  The 2000s Twins had some unsexy, but reliable starters at the back of their rotations.  The 12 guys I outlined won't help transform the team, but they are good supplements.  Some could be even better.  I support exploring all avenues.

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets: Worley Division Part I

In my never-ending quest to build my hopes up about the Twins' activity level this off-season, I have been writing about free agent targets and high-end starting pitching trade targets over the last few weeks.  The Twins have never signed a free agent to a huge deal and tend to deal in smaller trades or trades for high-end prospects.  The more recent Twins trades for MLB pitching have netted players like Carl Pavano and Vance Worley. 

I have identified some players who I think profile similarly to pre-2013 Worley, but hopefully can perform more like 2009-10 Pavano.  Each of these players is some positive combination of young, far from free agency and talented, although each to varying degrees.  Before you jump to the conclusion that I feel it is ok for the Twins to settle for lesser players, just know that I do not feel that way at all.  I think the players on this list are talented, can be acquired reasonably (without giving up a top 10 prospect or Glen Perkins) and could perform as a 3rd or 4th starter for many years. 

There is something wrong with all of these guys, and that is why they aren't as expensive and untouchable as say, Julio Teheran or Gerrit Cole.  However, there is enough to like that the Twins could really see solid value if they seek out one or more of these players. 

Felix Doubront - Boston Red Sox - Age 26 in 2014, Free Agent in 2018

Certainly not my favorite name on this list, Doubront could have some hidden value.  He throws in the low 90s but strikes out batters at an above league-average rate.  His ground ball rate is just above league-average as well.  His walk rate is somewhat worrisome, at just over 10% in his past two seasons.  I would trust the Twins to work with Doubront on his control and if he can get that rate down around 8%, I think he could be a reliable 4th or 5th starter with a little upside. 

Marco Estrada - Milwaukee Brewers - Age 30 in 2014, Free Agent in 2016

Estrada is the oldest and closest to free agency on my list, but his durability issues could play in the Twins favor if they wanted to pursue him.  He only throws in the 88-90 MPH range, but he gets strikeouts behind a filthy changeup.  Batters had a 33 OPS+ against that change and Estrada posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of about 10 when using that pitch.  His strikeout rate is legit and his walk rate is even better.  He's only thrown 266.1 innings the past two seasons, so there are reasons why the Brewers might not want to rely on him.  133 innings in a season would be a freaking Twins record at this point, so they'd be happy to take a flier. 

A.J. Griffin - Oakland Athletics - Age 26 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

Griffin was really good last year, but the A's aren't shy about turning an aging (relative term) starter into a mess of prospects.  Griffin threw 200 innings and boasted a solid strikeout rate and better than solid walk rate.  He is an extreme fly ball pitcher, but from the right side, his fly ball tendencies could play well at Target Field.  Griffin holds runners extremely well, with a career strand rate just shy of 80%.  Griffin has a filthy curve ball, which hitters basically couldn't hit at all in 2013.  He threw it just over 500 times and hitters had an OPS+ of 6.  Six!  Griffin has out-performed his peripherals in his short career.  If he can balance out his ground ball/fly ball ratio just a bit, he could turn into a very solid and consistent number 3 starter. 

Jeremy Hefner - New York Mets - Age 28 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

Hefner isn't very exciting, I have to admit.  His strikeout rate is just ok and his walk rate isn't much better.  His ground ball rate is fine.  There are a lot of oks and fines in that description, and perhaps trading for someone like that isn't what fans really want.  Hefner also averaged just slightly over five innings per start in 2013.  He did improve from 2012 to 2013 and he could continue to develop into a number 4 or 5 starter.  Hefner is the definition of "nothing special."  That said, "nothing special" is better than "tornado of suck" and that's what Twins fans have been witnessing the past few seasons. 

Dallas Keuchel - Houston Astros - Age 26 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

5.15 ERA in 2013?  Only throws in the high 80s?  Houston Astro?  Yep, Keuchel is all of those things and I still think he would be a good target.  Keuchel's 2013 xFIP of 3.58 is impressive.  His strikeout rate isn't dominant and neither is his walk rate, as each is slightly below league-average.  However, his ground ball rate of 55.8% and BABIP of .340 in 2013 points toward some upside/positive regression.  Houston seems to still be in the process of a rebuild, and Keuchel could be made available for a prospect package.  He's not good enough to attract a great prospect and the Twins have crazy depth in their system with plenty of decent prospects to offer.  His upside seems to be a better version of Scott Diamond, which the Twins could certainly use for the next six seasons. 

Lance Lynn - St. Louis Cardinals - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2018

Lynn might be a pipe dream.  He throws hard, racks up strikeouts and he's been an effective starter for a really good organization.  However, when you look at St. Louis, they have starting pitching depth for days, with Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, and Michael Wacha.  Add in Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, and the Cardinals might be willing to part with one of their young starters for the right price.  Lynn might walk more batters than the Twins like, but he can make batters miss and he gets enough ground balls to keep the infielders busy.  He also threw 200 innings last season and sits 92-93 with his fastball.  He's probably more expensive than the other names on this list, but he might have the most upside as well. 

We'll continue tomorrow with six more names.  If you simply cannot wait until then, just give me a call and I'll share the six names with you.  See you tomorrow!

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets Part II

Yesterday, I started to delve into starting pitchers who I want the Twins to target in potential trades.  I outlined five starters, three from the Cincinnati Reds.  If you missed it, click here.  Today, I have five more pitchers for you, free of charge!  There are two legitimate "aces" on this list and both are almost certainly pipe dreams.  That being said, it's fun to aim high.  I hope the Twins aim high, because I'd love to be surprised by my favorite team. 

Rick Porcello - Age 25 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

If the Twins trade for Porcello, we could officially start the tally on who says "Por-cello" and who says "Por-chello."  Personally, I say "Por-ceyo" in honor of the Spanish language.  Regardless of how you incorrectly say his name, Porcello might represent the best buying opportunity of the ten players I am outlining.  Porcello reached the Majors at age 20 and he's more than held his own since then.  His career 4.51 ERA isn't dynamic, but he's just 24.  He's averaged 174 innings in those five seasons and given up a ton of hits, leading the league in that category in 2012. 

Why is Porcello worth buying?  He's got a great curveball and an improving primary fastball.  He's finally getting some strikeouts with the former pitch, almost doubling his strikeout rate using that pitch since 2009.  His curve is dynamic and his control is outstanding.  His career walk rate is 6%, compared with 2013's AL average of 8%.  Porcello gets mad ground balls, posting a career rate of 52.8% and a career-high rate of 55.3% in 2013.  The most compelling stat is Porcello's 19.3% strikeout rate in 2013, nearly six points higher than any other year in his career.  Add up his sparkling walk rate, extreme ground ball tendencies and improving strikeout rate and you get a 3.19 xFIP in 2013.  Outstanding!

Porcello will be 25 in December.  He won't be a free agent until 2016 and a trade followed by a long-term extension would be an excellent move by the Twins.  He's good right now and I think he's going to get better.  This is the lowest his value is going to be.  Now is the time to buy. 

David Price - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

David Price is really good.  It's going to take a lot to get him though.  I imagine the Rays don't budge unless Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano are included in a deal.  Even if the Twins can talk them out of those stud prospects, the Rays would ask for Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart and then what's the real point?  Price is almost certainly worth those prospects (maybe not Buxton, but even that is worth arguing).  He's one of the best pitchers in baseball.  His strikeout rate dipped in 2013, but his walk rate plummeted.  His ground ball rate in 2013 reverted to his pre-2012 levels and he also missed time with a triceps injury.  

I love the player, but I don't love him as a trade target.  He's too expensive in all ways.  He'd cost a blue chip prospect and then hundreds of millions of dollars in payroll-tightening money.  Price is great, but I'd still pass. 

Jeff Samardzija - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

Samardzija really harnessed his control in 2012 and transformed into a nice pitcher.  If you watched him early in his career, you likely would have never seen him coming.  In 61 2012-13 starts, Samardzija has a strikeout rate around 24% (20% is NL average), a walk rate around 8% (just about NL average) and an xFIP of about 3.40.  His 2013 season wasn't as pretty as his 2012 season, but he did throw nearly 40 more innings and had a slight jump in BABIP to go with a slight decrease in his strand rate.  He throws hard too.  His fastball sits 94 and touches 98.  His slider is nasty too.  I like Samardzija as a trade target, especially because I think he would be cheaper than just about anyone else on this list. 

Max Scherzer - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2015

Oh man, I wish I had written this last off-season and I wish I had known that Scherzer was going to blossom into a Cy Young winner.  It was all legit too.  He's harnessed his command and gotten his walk rate below AL average.  He's still throws really hard.  He still racks up strikeouts.  He still has two different colored eyes.  His 2013 was just a touch lucky (.259 BABIP), but Scherzer is still a really good Ace-ish starting pitcher, who is still only 29.  Of course he'll be a free agent next Winter and if the Twins were to make a trade for him, they would absolutely have to have an extension in place.  The Tigers' asking price will likely be similar to the Rays' asking price for Price. 

Much like Price, I love the pitcher but I don't feel good about the cost.  His fly ball tendencies would play nicely at Target Field though.  Man, he's good.  Maybe the Twins can scoop him up as a free agent in November of 2014. 

Jordan Zimmermann - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

Zimmermann fits the Twins' profile a bit better than the other guys on this list.  He really limits walks.  His career rate is 5.4% and his 4.6% rate was 8th best in the NL in 2013.  He doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he usually settles in right around league-average.  His ground ball rate is trending upwards and his innings pitched have increased in each of the last three seasons, hitting 213.1 in 2013.  Unlike most Twins pitchers, Zimmermann throws a baseball very hard.  His fastball sits 93-94 and touches 97.  He also has an effective slider, curve and change.  His deep arsenal and great command are very enticing.  I'm not sure Washington can keep Zimmermann if they have any interest in keeping Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg.  If that's true, the Twins could land a very good number 2 starter if the right trade is proposed. 

Speaking of the right trade, who would you give up to get these guys?  I know that I would prefer to keep all of the Twins' consensus top four prospects - Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Stewart.  If the Twins call around to these teams and find that they all want one of those guys, then I'd start pursuing potential free agents even more aggressively.  If the Twins can add two quality starting pitchers this off-season, they can transform the team.  If they can pull this massive feat off, look at the potential starting rotation in 2015:

Homer Bailey

Matt Garza

Alex Meyer

Kyle Gibson

Kevin Slowey

That last one might be a joke, but if your first four are as good as those four, then your fifth starter could be just about anyone.  I honestly think that rotation could be acquired for about $30-35 million per season and a couple of good prospects.  Suddenly, the Twins have a ton of young starting pitching in the low Minors.  If the Reds wanted someone like Jose Berrios (plus more, Bailey is really good), you'd have to make that deal.  Isn't the goal with prospects to grow a guy like Bailey?  Bailey's grown.  You can get him if you give up some of your depth.  If the Reds wanted Berrios, Eddie Rosario and a young starter at Rookie ball, I'd say "yes, please send me your awesome pitcher, I'd like to have him now."

Note:  Obviously, the Rosario suspension news throws a bit of a wrench into this plan.  However, he's going to be suspended 50 games, not imprisoned for life.  

These names are all just examples, so please don't yell at me.  I don't know if that would be a trade the Reds or Twins would make.  I don't know how many of the teams who hold these pitchers are interested in what the Twins could sell.  I do know that the rate of prospect success is pretty low.  I also know that good MLB players typically remain good.  The Twins have a surplus of prospects and a deficit of quality, MLB starting pitchers.  It seems like a logical trade-off.  Otherwise:

"You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it." 

That's right Johan, but in this case, the "us" would be Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Correia (joking).  If the Twins really aren't careful, the "us" could be Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.  They have to address MLB starting pitching at some point.  The time is now.  Chant with me:

BUY!  BUY!  BUY!  BUY!  BUY!

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets Part I

With all the excitement regarding free agency, we all seem to have forgotten that the Twins attempted to reload their starting pitching last summer by making trades.  When the Twins unloaded their two centerfielders for starting pitching, they took a calculated risk.  They hoped that the pitchers they traded for would pan out while also hoping that their outfield depth would help them overcome the talented players they parted with.  Here we are nearly one year later, and the Twins still need starting pitching and still have organizational depth in the outfield.    

The Twins have recently been linked to Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo and Ricky Nolasco.  Any of those three would immediately become the Twins' best starting pitcher.  Sign two and the Twins start to look like an interesting team entering 2014.  What happens if these attractive free agent targets choose different homes?  The difficulty in persuading a good player to play for a bad team is painfully obvious:  why play for the Twins when better teams have just as much money? 

The nice thing about trades is that you don't have to persuade the player, just the other team.  All the Twins have to do is offer something fair and enticing.  Baseball Prospectus recently declared the Twins' farm system the best in baseball, so clearly the Twins have attractive trade chips. 

If the Twins do strike out in free agency, I have identified ten starting pitching targets that I would hope the Twins would investigate.  Each has at least one more year of team control and most have two.  I put them in alphabetical order, as I don't have a strong preference because I have no idea who would need to be traded to acquire these players.  My hope would that each player would be immediately signed to a long-term extension, but the lack of an extension would not necessarily be a deal-breaker. 

Since I suck at being succinct, I'll post five today and five tomorrow.  Let's dance.

Homer Bailey - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2015

Had I ranked these players, Bailey would be near the top of my list.  In fact, my secret hope is that he doesn't sign an extension before next off-season and the Twins can just grab him as a free agent next year.  That being said, the Twins would be competing against 29 other teams and if they trade for him now, they can reap the benefits of his age 28 season, in addition to his age 29-35(?) seasons. 

Why do I like Bailey?  Bailey is a post-prospect.  The seventh-overall pick back in 2004, Bailey looked like a bit of a bust as recently as 2011.  His 2012 and 2013 seasons demonstrate the promise he has fulfilled as a former first-round pick.  He saw an uptick in his velocity in 2013, sitting 93-94 and touching 98.  This likely contributed to his career best 23.4% strikeout rate.  His walk rate has hovered around 6% the past three seasons and has also induced ground balls at an above-average rate in 2012 and 2013.  His 2013 season was no fluke, and he ended with 209 innings pitched, 199 strikeouts, just 54 walks and an xFIP of 3.34. 

As you'll see later in this list, the Reds have two more pitchers featured.  The Reds aren't going to be able to sign all three, so trading one or two might be their reality.  If the Twins want to make a deal, the Reds seem like a reasonable trade partner.

Johnny Cueto - Age 28 in 2014, $10 million in 2014, $10 million team option in 2015

I'm not as high on Cueto as I would have been at this time last year.  His 2013 season was disappointing, as he only threw 60.2 innings due to multiple trips to the DL for a shoulder strain.  When he did pitch, he was just as impressive as ever, walking few, inducing ground balls, holding runners and getting just enough strikeouts.  However, shoulder injuries scare me.  I'd like to see a healthy season from him, but if the Twins wait until after 2014, he'll be a year from free agency and a riskier trade target.  He might be a phenomenal buy-low candidate, but there's huge risk.  He's under contract for two more seasons at $10 million per (team option in 2015, but it's a slam dunk if he's healthy).  That figure is a bargain for a pitcher as talented as Cueto.  Remember, the Reds still have one more guy on this list.

Doug Fister - Age 30 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

The oldest pitcher on my list, I like Fister because I think his skill set should age well.  He doesn't rely heavily on a hard fastball, but he misses enough bats to be effective.  His strikeout rate hovers around league-average, but his walk and ground ball rates are superb.  Since he'll be 32 when he hits free agency, he won't require a massive extension to keep him past 2015.  However, that also works against the Twins as he would be an equally attractive trade chip to other teams looking for good pitching.  The Tigers have already indicated that they are willing to move Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer (both coming tomorrow; suspense!), so why not Fister as well? 

Yovani Gallardo - Age 28 in 2014, $11.25 million in 2014, $13 million team option in 2015

I'm not super excited about Gallardo.  His strikeout rate fell significantly and his average fastball velocity dipped from 92.6 in 2011 to 90.7 in 2013.  In addition, his walk rate is above league-average and he's always given up his share of home runs.  He does induce ground balls and his strikeout rate is still acceptable, but there are enough signs to make Gallardo a risky acquisition.  If he could be acquired cheaply, he would slot in as a nice, safe number 3/4 starter.  He has a $13 million team option for 2015 but I'm not sure he'll be worth it at that point.  Then again, he's young and talented, and 2013 could be just a blip on the radar. I'm wary.

Mat Latos - Age 26 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

I really want to like Mat Latos.  He has a cat named Cat Latos, which is funny.  However, that cat has a blog and a twitter account, which I do not approve of.  I actually think it would be funnier if Mat spelled his name correctly and had a cat named Catt Latos.  I can't really fault him for any of this.

As a pitcher, I like Mat Latos.  Since 2010, Latos has thrown just a hair under 800 innings and hasn't had an xFIP higher than 3.79 in any of those seasons.  His strikeout rate has been slowly dropping, from 25.3% in 2010 down to 21.2% in 2013.  His walk and ground ball rates have remained stable, both hovering right around league-average.  His fastball is about a mile per hour slower than it was in 2010, but he still sits 92-93 and has an extremely effective slider.  Latos is just 26 and is under contract for $7.25 million in 2014.  After that, he has one more year of arbitration.  Once more, he is the third Reds pitcher on this list, and that doesn't even consider Aroldis Chapman.  I don't see any way they can keep all four, so I hope the Twins are calling to see who they can get their slimy fingers on. 

Five down and five to go.  Will your favorite soon-to-be-free agent starting pitcher make my list?  Probably.  You all go to MLB Trade Rumors too.  See you tomorrow!

What is reasonable return for Minnesota Twins' veterans?

There has been a lot of talk about trading the Twins established MLB players for prospects in recent weeks.  This concept has become a bit more complicated due to the Twins' relative success this season.  A terrible team is an easy seller while a great team is an eager buyer.  The Twins are neither great nor terrible.  The difficulty for the Twins' front office will be determining who is a part of the future and who is expendable.

I don't intend to try to make that determination.  I'll leave that to everyone else.  However, I remember an episode of Gleeman and the Geek from last season, when our heroic hosts were discussing this very topic.  John wanted to use current Twins prospects to determine a fair value for current Twins players.  I loved it.  It seems like such an intuitive way to explain what type of return they would be willing to accept.  I figure, I can do the same just in case for some strange reason the Twins decided to give me all the power involved in making their trades. 

For the record, this would be a terrible decision, as I would make wild determinations based on factors like name hilarity, hair length, eye black wearing and stirrups. 

However, if I decided to use my brain instead of my heart/the bad part of my brain, here is what I would anticipate if the Twins got offers for current Twins, using current Twins prospects as a hypothetical return.  If this is too plagiarism-y (from that Gleeman and the Geek), just go ahead and ignore/delete/savage.  We'll go from smallest return to largest, just for fun. 

Drew Butera for Tom Brunansky right now

This is just mean.  Why?

Trade Approved. But seriously, be nice.

Mike Pelfrey for Tim Atherton

If Pelfrey can be traded for any young pitcher, I'll take it.  Atherton has a unique path to where he is right now, but as a 23-year-old at low A, he is the type of pitcher who could be reasonably acquired for Pelfrey.  Pelfrey is only signed until the end of the season.  While Atherton is no great prospect, he is young and has pitched reasonably well.  For Pelfrey, I'd take just that.

Trade Approved.  You have to take anything you can get for Pelfrey.

Jared Burton for Nelvin Fuentes

I'd want a bit more for Burton.  Fuentes is a pitcher with a bit more upside and he misses bats.  He also has barely pitched above A ball and is 24-years-old.  I'd want more upside in a Burton trade, simply because he is under contract for another two seasons and the Twins don't really have someone who can step into his role.  However, they have plenty of guys who they could try in that role, and a good offer would be hard to pass up.   

Trade Approved.  It's not a perfect return, but there are always random guys who can become setup men, as Burton proved last season.

Kevin Correia for Nelvin Fuentes

I'm not sure the return for Correia should be much different than the return for Burton.  Correia is still relatively young and can be reasonably relied upon as a fifth starter, but he is nothing special.  At 5 million in 2014, I might just keep him, rather than trade him for an A ball prospect.  If Correia somehow became the Twins' fourth or fifth starter next season, he'd look a lot more attractive. 

Trade Denied.  I think Correia will be worth keeping for the second year of his contract.

Ryan Doumit for Logan Darnell

Doumit is perfect for the Twins.  He can spell Joe Mauer behind the plate and is one of the Twins' best hitters, despite being just about league-average (101 OPS+ in 2013).   On other teams, with a more traditional backup catcher situation, Doumit would be a DH/corner outfielder who can't play outfield all that well.   He fits best with the Twins, but if another team offered a AA or AAA pitcher with a good chance to reach the Majors, I would find it to be a fair return and let that team figure the rest out.

Trade Approved. Chris Herrmann could reasonably replace him in the lineup right now and an extra arm in the system is a worthy return.

Glen Perkins for Matthew Summers

I'm not sure it's fair to use terms like "proven closer" and "established closer" with Perkins, but "dominant left-handed reliever" is apt.  The fact that he has been closing for the Twins is a nice boost, as closers do tend to bring back greater returns than non-closers.  However, teams seem to be learning that trading for closers is a exercise in futility (save for the Red Sox).  Summers is a low-level prospect with big upside, so there is something intriguing here.

Trade Denied.  Are you kidding?  Perkins is fantastic, the Twins should keep him.

Justin Morneau for Hudson Boyd and Jason Wheeler

Seeing Morneau hit one home run on Wednesday night and give air high fives almost made me completely flip on my feeling that the Twins should trade him for anything.  Emotionally, I like Morneau as a player and enjoyed watching him become an MVP.  In order to trade him, I'd want two pitching prospects, but I know that realistically, they wouldn't be top 25 prospects.  Boyd sits right on the edge and Wheeler looks like he could be a solid reliever, if nothing else.  This is the type of trade that is both reasonable and fair, however for emotional reasons...

Trade Denied.  I'd have to be blown away to trade one of the most popular players in recent history.

Josh Willingham for Mason Melotakis

Melotakis seems like he will either be a great reliever or a decent starter with upside.  That kind of uncertainty is scary to many and as a result, many would be unwilling to part with a very popular player like Willingham.  However, Willingham is 34 and while his OBP is still good, his power and batting average have dropped significantly.  I was not a fan of trading Willingham last season, and I don't think the return would have been much better.  Melotakis is the type of risk-reward player that the Twins could target, should they decide to move Willingham.

Trade Approved.  An Oswaldo Arcia-Aaron Hicks-Chris Parmelee outfield can work for a season or two, until Byron Buxton is available.  Adding another high-upside arm is tough to pass up.   

Trevor Plouffe for Taylor Rogers and Hudson Boyd

I'd aim very high for Plouffe.  He's cheap, relatively young and has big power potential.  He might sail the occasional throw at third and his OBP is not ideal.  However, he has enough going for him to make me look for two lower level prospects with high upside, one of whom I am certain can start.  Rogers seems to have the stuff to start and Boyd still has big upside. 

Trade Approved.  Good luck getting another team to offer it though.

Joe Mauer for Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer and Niko Goodrum

Yep, that much.  He's a franchise player and I am irrational about him.  Mauer probably isn't worth that much right now, but I don't think the Twins would take anything but a "Godfather" offer, as Bill Simmons would say.  Even so... 

Trade Denied.  I just love him too much.

If you know the Twins system well, you'll see that I did not offer any top 10-15 prospects for Twins current players, save for Mauer.  That doesn't mean the Twins can't net top 10 prospects from other teams.  The Twins system is loaded, and others are not.  If the Twins decide to sell at the deadline, I would not be expecting huge returns.  However, every little bit helps. 

Alexi Casilla was acquired for J.C. Romero.  Jason Bartlett was acquired for Brian Buchanan.  Nick Punto and Carlos Silva were acquired for Eric Milton.  These aren't sexy names, but they were useful players who helped the Twins win divisions.  If the Twins can make smart trades at the deadline, it shouldn't matter who they trade and who they keep. 

What does everyone think?  Where am I waaaaaaay off?  What trades do you feel are fair?