Monday Morning Madness: July 21, 2014

Weekend Recap

Does MLB offer their teams refunds for entire series?  Can an MLB team get a "do over" on the first series out of a break?  If a tree falls in the woods, could it possibly join the Twins' lineup and produce a few hits?  Is suckatude a word?    

Oswaldo Arcia

Arcia went 0-4 on Friday night, sat against a tough lefty on Saturday and then returned on Sunday with another 0-3, this time with two strikeouts and he was pinch hit for in the 8th inning.  Arcia is clearly not producing as many had hoped.  I predicted 55 extra-base hits from him in 2014!  Instead, he has 13 and the way he's been hitting, I wonder if he reaches 25 by the end of the season.

I still believe that there are reasons to be optimistic about Arica.  His walk rate has improved, his strikeout rate is slightly down.  He's hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls.  I would hope that he's in the lineup just about every single day going forward. 

I don't think sending him to AAA does him any good at this point.  He has a .999 OPS in AAA.  The Twins have sent him down with the hope that he'll mash AAA and bring that confidence or whatever with him to Minnesota.  It hasn't worked.  For now, they need to brute force this slump.  He needs to play until he breaks out of it.  He's too talented to slump forever. 

Phil Hughes

Hughes had another rough start on Saturday, giving up five earned runs over seven innings, picking up his sixth loss on the season.  Over his last six starts, Hughes has a 6.34 ERA.  In 38.1 innings over those six starts, he has 31 strikeouts to just 4 walks.  Not bad.  Unfortunately, he's given up a shocking 56 hits over those starts.  Even in his one good start during this stretch he gave up eight hits. 

His BABIP during those six starts is .421, both incredibly high and highly unsustainable.  Basically, Hughes is going through a rough patch, but he should be able to ride it out.  Back on April 20, when his ERA was 6.43, his BABIP was .394.  In the ten starts in the middle, his BABIP was .286 and his ERA was 2.08. 

It sucks that his ERA has spiked by nearly a run over his last six starts, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see it down in the low 3s again by the end of the season, especially if he keeps his strikeout and walk rates where they've basically been all year. 

Optimism Fading

I try hard to be optimistic with the Twins.  I predicted (read:  hoped for) a 75-win season.  I'm willing to concede that they are highly unlikely to reach that win total.  The offense goes cold for weeks at a time, the starting pitching is very inconsistent and what does a bullpen matter when the score is 5-1 after 4 innings?  

I greatly hope that the Twins don't completely fall apart in August and September again.  While I don't think they have the talent to reach 75 wins, I really don't want to sit through another 4-25 April.  I'd like to see some young players get time later in the season, but hopefully the few veterans who will remain can keep things together and win some games.  I'm tired of being in the "draft slot derby" in September.  I'd like to see the team finish respectably. 

Former Twin Update - Alexi Casilla

If you're wondering why we haven't heard much about Sexi Lexi this season, it's because he's spent his season with Baltimore's AAA team.  Well, at least the parts of the season when he's been healthy.  It's been a rough year for Casilla, as he hyperextended his knee in May and missed a bunch of time and now he's pretty much out for the season with a broken hamate bone. 

It's a shame because I always liked Casilla, even if his performance didn't merit my affection.  I'll likely always gravitate toward the short middle infielders because that was who I was when I played ball once upon a time.  Plus, we both have spaces in the middle of our front teeth.  Also, he was awesome.  Just ignore his 73 OPS+ in seven seasons with the Twins; he was awesome.

Fun Stat - 4th Starters

Did you know that teams who have paid more than $100,000 per start to their fourth starter have a collective winning percentage of .481?  Did you know that teams who have paid less than $100,000 per start to their fourth starter have a collective winning percentage of .528?  Why is this important?

Well, the Twins happen to have a young pitcher who many have predicted for the fourth starter role.  This particular pitcher is nearly MLB-ready (or already MLB-ready, depending on who you ask) and has been very durable in his Minor League career.  In addition, by way of being young, he will be very cheap and should easily make less than $100,000 per start when he hits the Majors. 

I'm going to expand on this in a post on Wednesday, as I have a whole mess of data and analysis related to Trevor May to share.  Check back on Wednesday!  Cliffhanger!

Baseball Card from the Past

Yep, Rickey Henderson often batted while sitting on six stolen bases.  You probably forgot about that. 

All-Star Game Recap!

As I mentioned roughly 4 million times, I attended the All-Star Game on Tuesday.  In my American League midseason award and predictions column (click here if you missed it), I wrote about how I reacted to a fan who said Mike Trout was overrated.  In addition to that blow-up, I also became irate when I dropped my turkey sandwich.  Seriously, I traversed roughly 30,000 people and 10,000 people looking backward in complete confusion to get to my seat, then I dropped my tantalizing sandwich. 

Make no mistake, I went back and got another one.  It had cajun seasoning and sweet and spicy BBQ sauce.  I made the right choice. 

Oh, the game was fun too.  I think Derek Jeter won.

Poll Results

Last month, I posted a poll with a simple question - When will the Twins make the playoffs next?  Here are the results:

• 2014 - 2 votes
• 2015 - 20 votes
• 2016 - 17 votes
• 2017 - 4 votes
• 2018 - 3 votes
• A depressingly long time from now - 10 votes

To be fair, the last one could overlap with a couple of the other options.  I voted for 2016, a year later than my original projection from before this season.  The two who voted for 2014 are incredible.  I would like to be their friend.  I did post a new poll, so check out my blog and vote.  It's what cool kids do.

Plugging My Way

Well, I already plugged my AL midseason award post, so for the sake of symmetry, here's my NL post as well:  click here!  If you're curious, I did not predict any awards correctly before the season and I did gutlessly change all of my predictions when given the chance.  You should read it, it's fun!

Parting Thought

The second half of the season is not off to a great start.  However, the Twins still have seven games at home to try to pull things together.  Of course, they'd almost have to win six of seven to really have a successful homestand.  I'm just going to assume that won't happen.  At the end of the homestand, the trading deadline will be nearly upon us.  The sweep from the Rays to start the second half might have been the best thing for the "fire sale" crowd and the worst thing for the "buy it now" crowd.  I'm in neither camp, so I'll just chill.  Have a nice week, everyone!

20 Minnesota Twins Trades: Romero for Casilla

Who could possibly care about a trade involving J.C. Romero and Alexi Casilla?

The Trade:  BREAKDOWN!

The Minnesota Twins traded J.C. Romero to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (or whatever the H they were called then) for Alexi Casilla.    

When Romero wasn't walking every batter in the history of Major League Baseball, he was relatively productive for the Twins.  In his one season with the Angels, he threw 48.1 innings, struck out 31 and walked 28.  That kind of dominance will get you a 6.70 ERA.  He posted a swell -0.9 WAR that season and the Angels shockingly did not want to retain his services for 2007, allowing him to walk as a free agent. 

Simply by not being J.C. Romero, Alexi Casilla saved the Twins 1 whole win.  He played 9 games, had 6 plate appearances and posted a 0.1 WAR.  How much did J.C. Romero have to suck to get so soundly out produced?  A lot is the answer.  Casilla went on to play seven mostly uninspiring seasons with the Twins, even eclipsing that -0.9 WAR twice (-1.1 WAR in 2007 and -1.5 WAR in 2009).  What a trade!

How did I feel at the time?

You may have already picked up the fact that I was not fond of Romero.  First, the walks.  He walked everyone!  I hated that.  Second, he had that one "good" season in 2002 and it took me a few years to realize that it was a fluke and he would never be that good again.  Third, I just didn't like him.  I didn't like how he pitched.  I didn't like how he behaved on the mound.  I was not cool with Romero.  I had never heard of Alexi Casilla, but he instantly became my favorite player. 

Why make the trade?

Apparently Romero was upset and wanted a trade.  Oh no!  Here's a stupid quote from an ESPN story:

"When you feel disrespected, and feel you can't do anything about it, that's when you get frustrated," Romero said in a teleconference. "You have to move on. If you don't move on, you're going to be a mediocre pitcher and a mediocre person."

Obviously, Romero felt disrespected his whole career, which totally explains why he was always mediocre.  Romero was apparently upset because he didn't have a well-defined role.  Romero was not on board with the burgeoning sabermetric movement.  Here's a fun quote from this MLB.com story:

"In 2004 and 2005, I had no clue where I was going to pitch or even if I would pitch," Romero said. "My routine completely changed after 2002 and my innings dropped drastically. I have myself to blame for some of that, but now I know what to expect with the Angels."

Well, my guess is that you will pitch from the mound.  The rationale for your innings dropping is that you only get credit for an inning pitched if you actually record outs.  Perhaps you forgot that the goal of baseball was get outs and not walk batters.  That's on the Twins, I suppose.  Or your Youth Baseball coach.

"I totally believe that in a team, you have to have communication," Romero said. "Sometimes communication wasn't there the way I wanted it. I expect a little more."

You see.  If the Twins had simply communicated the rules of baseball to him, none of this would have happened.  Of course, this little spat didn't help either:

Things really started to sour last season when Romero got into a spat with Gardenhire during a game against Kansas City on Sept. 28. After hitting two batters in the seventh inning, Romero stormed off the mound just as Gardenhire had emerged from the dugout to make a change. Gardenhire met with the pitcher the following day, but it appears the meeting didn't go as well as was initially believed.

It's so strange that a manager would want to replace a pitcher who just hit two batters.  Again, if the Twins had communicated to Romero that trying to throw holes through opposing players wasn't a viable strategy, things could have been avoided. 

Even after all that lack of communication, Terry Ryan was diplomatic:

"I thought that a change of scenery might be the best thing for both parties," Ryan said. "The way that things have transpired in the last year or so, it was the right thing to do for all involved."

To his credit, I guess it was immediately water under the bridge for Romero:

"I really from the bottom of my heart thank them. I hold no grudges. This is a business decision. I'm a man. Gardy's a man. He's probably happy this happened, too. It's time to move on."

Yeah, I bet Gardy was cool with losing that tight 6.70 ERA that Romero posted the following season.    

There's more here.  I'm missing something...  Oh yeah, the other guy in the trade:

"He's a middle infielder that can run, he can throw, has quick hands and can swing that bat on the ball," Ryan said. "We believe that he is a player who has a very high ceiling and one that will at some point surface at the Major League level."

None of those things were false, but the degree to which he could actually do those things varied drastically.  However, getting a utility guy for a reliever with little utility is a great upgrade in my eyes. 

Analysis

Let's be clear:  I did not like J.C. Romero.  More than that, he was never really a good pitcher.  He was a walk machine even in that good 2002 season and the few good seasons he somehow lucked into with Philadelphia.  I mean, Sam Deduno probably looks at Romero's Baseball Reference page and thinks "man, that guy needed to work on his control." 

Bad to mediocre relievers can catch lightning in a bottle and post a good season despite poor peripheral numbers.  Romero certainly did.  His career 5.1 walks per nine innings ranks somewhere between awful and cat crap.  He basically walked a batter in every other inning of his career.  Terrible.  And yet, the Twins did manage to trade him for Alexi Casilla.  Casilla was hardly a stud, but provided some exciting moments as a Twin.  He also looked like he was having fun when playing baseball. 

Who won the WAR?

Romero with the Angels:  -0.9 WAR

Casilla with the Twins:  4.2 WAR

WAR won by the Twins!  But, seriously.

One Sentence Summary

The Twins turned J.C. Romero into a living human being capable of playing baseball and therefore won this trade.    

Exposing a Hidden Hall of Fame Player?

Earlier this week, I wrote about Joe Mauer and his Hall of Fame career.  I was really taken by just how well Mauer stacks up against catchers throughout history, players from this era and Hall of Famers in general.  If you didn't read it, you can find it here.  If you did read it, you can find it there too, but you probably shouldn't read it again.  Read this instead.  I thought, well, this is probably an exercise that I could complete for a lot of players, to see if anyone's greatness is being overlooked.

Using Baseball Reference's amazing play reference, I shall set out on a journey to find an overlooked player and rightfully adjust everyone's attitudes on his playing career.  If I can truly change the minds of the masses, then I will become the most powerful baseball blog-guy of all time.  If I can do this successfully, my legacy will be cemented right next to that DIPS guy and whoever invented OPS.  This is my one chance, and I cannot blow it.  History awaits.  Now, to pick the perfect candidate...

Alexi Casilla seems like a good choice.

Here are some Sexi Lexi facts:

•          Casilla is a middle infielder
•          Casilla debuted in 2006 at age 22
•          Casilla is 28 and in his eighth season
•          Casilla is not a power hitter
•          Casilla is not a good hitter
•          Casilla's has two skills - baserunning (?) and throwing the ball while completely parallel to the ground
•          Casilla has played exactly 500 games in his career.  Round!

How does Casilla compare to his contemporaries in the middle infield?  Casilla has had 1794 plate appearances in his career.  Between 1988 and 2912, there are 121 middle infielders with roughly that many or more plate appearances.  Casilla ranks 100th in OPS+, right ahead of Pat Meares.  We are not off to a good start here.  He's 114th in home runs, 116th in RBI, 119th in hits, 94th in OBP, 104th in slugging percentage and 98th in batting average.

This isn't going well.

Well, this isn't Casilla's game.  He's not a hitter, he's a speed guy!  I'm guessing he'll be great in the speedy categories like doubles (114th), triples (95th), stolen bases (59th), and runs (114th).  Hmm.  He does have the second fewest at bats on this list, so it's pretty obvious that he just needs a chance to hit more, right?

Is it possible that Casilla just stacks up better against everyone?  Perhaps his skills do not compare favorably to other speedy infielders, but will look shockingly tremendous against plodding corner infielders and stupid outfielders.  Let's see how Casilla ranks within a different sample: 

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1961 to 2012, Played 85% of games at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF or DH, (requiring At least 1750 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+:

Casilla ranks 1209 out of 1331 players.  Crud.

Oh oh, maybe stolen bases!

Casilla ranks 498 out of 1331 players.  Blast, then crud.

So what?  Casilla's young.  I bet a lot of guys started their careers as bad hitters who offered little on the bases because you can't steal first and got hurt a lot or was just benched due to better options.  The only way to know for certain is to check Casilla against other Hall of Famers, during their first eight seasons.  Let's see how good they were before they hit their stride.    There were 123 players in this sample:

•          Batting Average - 3rd from last - ahead of Ozzie Smith!
•          OBP - 10th from last  - ahead of Ozzie Smith and Robin Yount!
•          OPS+ - Last :(
•          OPS - 3rd from last - ahead of Ozzie Smith!  Was Ozzie Smith good?
•          Fewest Strikeouts - 36th! - although in a LOT fewer at bats
•          Walks - Last, but not that far behind Brooks Robinson and Roberto Clemente!
•          Hits - Last, but strangely only 65 fewer than Harmon Killebrew
•          Doubles - 2nd from last, ahead of Killebrew, although Killebrew played like no games in his first five seasons...
•          Runs - Very last
•          RBI - Super Last
•          Home Runs - 4th from last, somehow
•          Games played - 2nd last, 12 more than Killebrew
•          WAR - Last, comically so

Ok, so maybe Casilla was comparable to Smith, who still had about a 28 WAR advantage on Lexi.  Killebrew was three years younger when he debuted, so he gets a pass.  Although, I'm not ruling out Casilla hitting over 500 home runs now.

Perhaps jumping to Hall of Famers was a bit premature.  This really means nothing, when you think about it the exact way I am.  Perhaps Casilla is a late bloomer.  I bet lots of guys were.  We need a more apt comparison to his current self, with the understanding that he is going to definitely explode as a player within the next few seasons.

It stands to reason that if Casilla is working on a Hall of Fame career, his first eight seasons will compare favorably to other middle infielders after eight seasons.  Most of the time, Hall of Famers are judged against their positional counterparts.  When Casilla has his mid-career explosion, he will surpass his peers and cement his legacy.  That makes perfect sense.  Lots of prominent players will be low on this list, I bet.  Alexi must be better than some notable players.  So, let's find out!  I am very optimistic. 

(Redacted)

Look, I don't see why I need to include these stats at all.  He's pretty much last in every counting stat and nearly last in all the rate stats.  So what?  Stats aren't everything.  There's the eye test too, you know. Plus, I thought RBI didn't matter and batting average was all luck.  What really matters is that Alexi has heart and hustle.  He also has a pretty nice smile and I just don't feel you are respecting that.  Respect his smile!

You know, I'm not sure why I am even bothering with this anymore.  I've clearly failed and will have to wait for another chance to establish myself in the realm of good blog-guys.  Maybe when I write about 1987 Topps baseball cards later this week, no one ever does stuff like that.  However, I do present to you one final stat, and a stat that no one can argue with.  If this doesn't at least get you partially on my side, I'm not sure what will.  In fact, I'll feel sorry for you.  I said it.  I even put it in a chart for the real stat-heads.

Rank	Player	Balls Thrown While Horizontal for outs
1	Alexi Casilla	I think like 2
tie-2	Everyone Else	Probably zero