Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Joe Mauer hates Pop-Ups


Sometimes inspiration strikes in odd ways.  Today, Rhett Bollinger, the Twins' MLB.com beat writer, sent out this tweet:



Wait, what?  I saw that come through my feed and I was immediately interested.  Was it true?


That seems so unlikely.  Even by raw luck, one would think that Joe Mauer would pop out a few times each year.  Mauer was the best in the AL last year at not making outs.  He only made an out 58.4% of the time.  He had 641 plate appearances  and only one resulted in an infield fly ball, which is what I will now be using to describe a pop up (at times).  He struck out 88 times, so he still made over 300 outs with his bat.  And yet, only once did he make an out by flying out in the infield. 

How rare is this?  I was inspired to investigate.  I started doing some research.  Mauer has only 20 infield fly outs in his nine-year-career.  Crazy.  I decided to look at how many players had 20 or more infield fly outs last season.  Forty.  Forty players!  Forty players popped out as much or more than Mauer has in his entire career, and all just last season.  Now I am really intrigued.  Here's a spreadsheet that resulted from my intrigue:

Infield Fly Ball Nerd Spreadsheet

Looking at the spreadsheet demonstrates just how rare this feat or accomplishment or freak occurrence really is.  In fact, take a look at this chart:

Mauer Infield Fly Balls
# of Players > 20 IFFB that season
Mauer Infield Hits
2004
1
87
4
2005
3
62
6
2006
2
73
8
2007
1
62
5
2008
6
57
10
2009
2
50
8
2010
4
46
12
2011
0
56
6
2012
1
40
8
Total
20
533
67


Mauer has had 20 infield fly balls in 9 years, and 533 players have had 20 or more infield fly balls in a season during that same span.  I threw in a BONUS! column that shows Mauer has over 3 times as many infield hits than infield fly balls.  How crazy.

Before I go further, this data does not necessarily mean these were all pop outs.  They are simply infield fly balls.  Some may have dropped, although it stands to reason that the vast majority were converted into outs.  So, when I use these terms interchangeably, I apologize.  This isn't an academic journal.

Since we are all in love with this stat at this point, I looked at who created the most infield fly balls per plate appearance.  Basically, these are the Pop-Up Kings (2002-2012 data):

Name
IFFB
PA
IFFB/PA
Eric Byrnes
273
3478
7.85%
Tony Batista
180
2315
7.78%
Mike Rivera
45
593
7.59%
Todd Greene
58
841
6.90%
64
979
6.54%
Rod Barajas
234
3642
6.43%
Joe Crede
212
3307
6.41%
Drew Butera
33
531
6.21%
John Flaherty
43
692
6.21%
Lenny Harris
34
555
6.13%


Do you prefer volume pop-up hitters?  Here is the chart for you!  I used 2004-2012 data, to mirror Mauer's career:

Name
Career IFFB
277
255
Eric Byrnes
245
239
221
Alex Gonzalez
212
210
207
206
Rod Barajas
205


A few familiar names indeed!  Personally, I'd rather remember Eric Byrnes for his extreme pop-up-edness, rather than for his current gig at MLB Network.  Tony Batista would have absolutely been my first guess as a Pop-Up King.  The way he stands would seem to lend itself to popping up a lot.  The leaders pop-up about every 13 plate appearances.  What about the players with the lowest rate of infield fly balls?  WordHippo tells me that the opposite of a King is a Subject.  So, here are the Pop-Up Subjects (that sounds terrible)(2002-2012 data):

Name
IFFB
PA
IFFB/PA
Larry Bigbie
1
1218
0.08%
Julio Franco
4
1517
0.26%
3
1064
0.28%
11
3064
0.36%
13
3232
0.40%
19
4701
0.40%
Joe Mauer
20
4552
0.44%
34
7644
0.44%
Jose Tabata
6
1197
0.50%
7
1255
0.56%

Mauer, even with all his anti-pop-up glory, is only 7th.  Larry Bigbie had one pop-up in his career.  Here is the box score from that game, in case you want to frame it.  Many of the names on this list are players who just don't hit a lot of fly balls at all.  Just looking at last year, Ben Revere had the lowest fly ball rate, Jeter was second lowest, Kendrick fourth and Mauer sixth. 

Votto, Howard and Posey seem like the anomalies, as they are all powerful hitters.  Votto and Posey post lower than average fly ball rates, and Howard is right at average.  The fact that each hits a lot of homeruns is quite impressive, as they just hit fewer balls in the air than most power hitters. 

I refuse to try to make sense of anything related to Julio Franco.

Back to Mauer.  Mauer hits an infield fly ball once in every 227 plate appearances.  So, today's event was pretty rare.  In fact, we might not see another one until around June.  The real question is why is he such a Subject of Pop-Ups?  I really hate that name.  Let's call them No Pop-Up Dudes going forward. 

A bigger picture can be seen with all of his batted ball data.  Here are his batted ball rates compared with league average:

Rates
Mauer
League Avg
LD
23.10%
20%
GB
50.30%
44%
FB
26.60%
36%
IFFB
2.20%
10%

This helps to explain his lack of home run power, but overall great hitting. 

BUT WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?!?!?

I don't know, nothing?

Well, the best contact hitters seem to be good at avoiding the worst type of contact.  It stands to reason that the infield fly ball is the worst type of batted ball.  It doesn't get converted to hits or runs unless there is some sort of hilarious infield mishap and they almost never lead to sacrificed runners. 

Mauer likely avoids this type of contact because he has such a great approach and he doesn't deviate from it.  He swings easily and tends to swing at only pitches he can handle.  The fact that he doesn't hit a lot of fly balls to begin with helps as well.  Overall, Mauer seems to be a hitter who knows exactly what he wants to do, and stays within that approach in nearly all cases. 

Or, he's a wizard. 

Upon further review, Grant Brisbee, Jeff Sullivan, and Jeff Passan all wrote about Joey Votto's extreme aversion to pop ups.  You could argue that he was the original No Pop-Up Dude.  In addition, Sullivan wrote about how remarkable Joe Mauer is.  You can say I stole from everyone and no one. 

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Righting a Baseball Card Injustice

I went to Target this afternoon.  That alone is exciting enough for a new post, but there's more!  I was going to get bread and milk for my family.  I also needed to buy some pens, which happen to be on the opposite end of the store.  There's still more.  After procuring my pens, I went down an unmanned checkout aisle to get a soda pop.  I wanted a Diet Dr. Pepper.  Farther down that aisle were the baseball cards.  I thought to myself "oh man, I used to love baseball cards."  It's true.  In fact, this card is burned into my brain and remains my favorite card ever.


I stood there looking at the cards.  At first, I was surprised.  Then, I was confused.  There were packs and then there were jumbo packs, then there were these value boxes and then there were some other value boxes that were bigger.  It was overwhelming.  I had invested a good five minutes into this venture, so I decided I would buy a pack of baseball cards.  I scoured the area for something familiar.  There were old looking cards that were new and there were some packs that had only 3 or 4 cards for like 5 dollars.  Now, I'm no cheapskate, but man, that seems high. 

I found the 2013 Topps.  I used to collect Topps!  In fact, that Kirby Puckett card is a Topps!  I wondered if any of the cards would have giant bats involved, but figured the only legal way to find out was to buy a pack.  So, I got the pack of 2013 Topps.  There were 12 cards for $1.99, which actually doesn't seem that unreasonable.  I'd like to turn this into a cute story where I forget to buy the milk and bread because I was so excited, but that just isn't the case. 

I arrived home and shared with my wife that I bought a pack of cards.  She didn't seem that impressed, but wasn't mad or witty or anything stereotypical like that.  This isn't a sitcom.  However, she was not nearly as excited as I was when I opened the pack. 

The cards are pretty nice.  The photos are good.  There was this weird green card that I assumed was super valuable, but the pack says there are 1 in every 6 packs.  Considering there were roughly 5,000 packs at that one Target, I'm guessing these aren't very rare.  They ugly too.  I didn't get any Twins in Twin uniforms, but I did get this little gem:


I also got rookie phenom Jurickson Profar's rookie card!  I know this because there is a logo with an RC on it:


I zoomed in on his face.  It looks painted.  I can't confirm if Profar's real face just looks like a painting, or if this is a photoshopped image.  If anyone knows the answer, please let me know.  Take a look at this bad picture and see for yourself:


As you can see, I don't take great care of my card collection:


They fell off the couch and landed there.  I had forgotten they were on the couch.  At first, the dog was very interested, but ultimately seemed bored with the whole deal:


One of the blinds is crooked.  I should fix that.  Ok, what's the point of all this?  I got a card that had a checklist on the back.  I didn't take a picture for some reason, and I'm not really able to get off the couch right now:


He does that.  Have you typed with a 90 lb dog on your arm?  You should, it adds a degree of difficulty.    The checklist is the cheese here though.  I remember when I was a kid, the checklist card was just a list of players.  It sucked.  I usually threw them out.  They didn't have a player on it or anything.  This 2013 version had Johan Santana on the front.  Very nice!  I'm a gypsy.  My wife.  Sorry, Borat loop. 

The checklist got me thinking:  do they make a card for each player?  I did some research and found that in 2012, they made 3 series of Topps standard cards.  There was series 1, series 2, and update series.  I guess series 3 would have been too predictable.  I did investigate further and found that "update series" is for players who have changed teams and other events like the all-star game and whatnot.  This confirms my suspicions that each player does not have a card.  

Side note:  Topps makes like a million different sets each year.  Some have really funny names like Gypsy Queen.  There is also a baseball card Wikipedia of sorts.  Here's the link, have fun!

Back to the task at hand.  It's simple math.  There are 330 cards in each of these Topps sets.  330 x 3 = 990.  In any given season, there are at least 750 players, but usually many more.  That should add up, but remember what I said about the "update series."  Perhaps the worst players just don't get a card.  That makes sense, right?

Oh wait:


So, that's not it. 

The reality is that some players must be snubbed!  You can't have a player on a Topps card until they actually play an MLB game.  It's a rule.  It must be a contract thing.  So, some rookies might not get cards until the next season.  That's fine.  There likely was not a 2012 Profar card.  I checked eBay quick but that was exhausting.  There are just too many colors and variations.  What happened to the days of guys holding giant bats?

I decided to find the player checklists from the three series in 2012 to see which Twins were snubbed by the good people at Topps.  In the end, I found 30 players who had cards in the 2012 sets.  I also counted 8 fairly notable Twins without cards.  Here is the spreadsheet I made.  Don't make fun of me.

Card #
Player
Notes
Series 1
62
81
Liam Hendriks
Rookie Card
95
Chris Parmelee
Rookie Card
97
Record Breakers, not sure which one
111
Kevin Slowey
In a Twins Uniform, I looked it up
164
Carl Pavano
179
230
235
Joe Benson
Rookie Card
249
276
292
Ben Revere
again?
303
Danny Valencia
lol
316
Nick Blackburn
lol
Series 2
337
389
Alexi Casilla
Note to self:  buy this
411
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
hmm
501
512
517
Francisco Liriano
529
Luke Hughes
huh?
535
I was starting to wonder
655
Update Series
US7
Joe Mauer
All-Star
US67
Jamey Carroll
US112
Eduardo Escobar
Rookie Card
US140
Brian Duensing
US158
Jared Burton
US161
Rookie Card
US163
US274
Jeff Gray
BWAHAHAHAHAHA
US330
Alex Burnett
That's right, the last card for the year is Alex Burnett
No Card
The Snubbed The Snubbed's WAR
Darin Mastroianni
0.8 WAR
Pedro Florimon
0.8 WAR
Matt Carson
0.1 WAR
Anthony Swarzak
-0.6 WAR
Cole De Vries
0.2 WAR
P.J. Walters
-0.6 WAR
Sam Deduno
0.5 WAR
Casey Fien
1.0 WAR

I listed those without cards by WAR.  The winner:  Casey Fien.  Casey Fien was pretty good last year.  He was certainly better than Alex Burnett and Jeff Gray.  Plus, Casey Fien doesn't even have a rookie card, even though he has played in parts of three seasons.  At least not one I can find.  I have decided to reward him with his own card.  I'd say the results are a bit mixed.  I'm still learning the intricacies of gimp.  A billion points if you can guess the body of the player I used.  No google, yo.



Whoa, that is terrifying.

With that, I have righted an injustice and taken you on a journey of what happens on an average Saturday in my house.  If you have feedback, I'd love to read it.  Clearly, I need more things to help me pass the time.

Brad Swanson is a professional photohop guy.  He had the title line in Star Wars.