tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49287936425668359282024-02-21T02:32:52.646-06:00Kevin Slowey was Framed!JournalismBradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.comBlogger381125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-84344639216373160942016-01-15T21:14:00.000-06:002016-01-15T21:15:51.364-06:00The Wonder of Arbitration Figures Day!<div class="MsoNormal">
Kaedon awoke like a ball launched off of Miguel Sano's bat. He often dreamt in simile. On a typical day, you could shoot a cattle prod into Kaedon's eleven-year-old throat and he'd just lie there like fricking moron. Not today. Today was special. <br />
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Kaedon slipped into his arbitration slippers, threw on his arbitration jumpsuit and slowly pulled down his arbitration toque. To say this was simply a normal day would be to speak as a fool. It would be akin to saying that <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg</a> would file for a measly seven million dollars. You'd be giving the world all the evidence it needs to see that nothing of value comes out of your stupid mouth. </div>
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No, today is not a normal day. Today is the day when players and teams exchange arbitration figures. Today is Arbitration Figures Day! Kaedon just calls it "Kaedon's Christmas." </div>
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Kaedon's mom called him in sick for school, as she does every Arbitration Figures Day. He readied his clan of Fatheads to act out the excitement. The custom Agent Fatheads that he got from his grandma for his birthday looked divine. Their suits had an extra sparkle today. The negotiating they would do, it was too much to even think about without painful smiling. Oh, oh Kaedon wished that every player had to file for arbitration!! </div>
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The #MNTwins had just a handful of players with arbitration eligibility. Kaedon always called them the #MNTwins just in case some other friends of his were listening and wanted to jump in. Kaedon knew all the arb-eligible players frontwards, backwards and a third -wards that he invented using stats. Not just the #MNTwins players. He's not a narrow-minded nitwit. </div>
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With his wealth of information, he was as prepared as any young child to ogle at the wonder of Arbitration Figures Day! Will <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keuchda01.shtml" target="_blank">Dallas Keuchel</a> set a record?!?!?!? Could <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arrieja01.shtml" target="_blank">Jake Arrieta</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson</a> turn award-winning seasons into big-time paydays of boffo bucks? Which jerk on the internet would write the most inflammatory column? The intrigue was almost too much to handle. He was urinating just about every half hour. </div>
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Kaedon pulled out his arbitration notebook (he named it Lance) and looked through his guesses. Guesses! Please, with the amount of research that Kaedon compiled in 2015, you could hardly call these guesses! While the other children were playing stickball and going to penny arcades, Kaedon was studying prior arbitration cases like he was writing a online manifesto. Lance's pages were worn, but his memories would never wear away. </div>
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After eating his standard Arbitration Figures Day breakfast of seven oranges and a Trix Yogurt, he sat down in front of his computer, waiting for the numbers to trickle through. Kaedon wondered what kids did on Arbitration Figures Day before the internet. They probably just cried a lot and maybe read the newspaper the next day or something lame. Kaedon wasn't lame. He was prepared. </div>
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Kaedon refreshed Twitter like a...well like pretty much every Twitter user does every day. He knew that if he looked closely, he'd be the first to see the first report of the figures. Kaedon's current favorite player is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml" target="_blank">Trevor Plouffe</a>, so he set up a column for his name in TweetDeck. TweetDeck, Lance and Kaedon were inseparable, a regular three amigos. </div>
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Kaedon always gravitated toward the second-year arb eligible players. He thought they were more challenging to predict. With just one prior year of arb data and only a few seasons of stats to look at, he felt they were the perfect combo. Perfect for his deft touch and keen eye for detail. Plus, he has really low standards, making Plouffe a perfect fit. </div>
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While Arbitration Figures Day is an exciting day, it's a stressful day as well. He was sweating a lot. Jumpsuits don't breathe. His walls were slightly thicker due to overlapping Fatheads. The one thing Kaedon would never try to predict is when the information would reach the masses. That's just a ridiculous waste of time. </div>
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Kaedon had to take a break. Lunch was served and someone had to eat all that ground beef. Shortly after lunch, the numbers finally hit TweetDeck. Kaedon was shocked. Flabbergasted! Floored even. He had to consult with Lance just to make sure he believed what he saw. <br />
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Plouffe had filed at $7.95 million and the #MNTwins had countered at $7 mil. </div>
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It was just as Kaedon had predicted! His research had paid off! Upon recovering from seven consecutive fainting spells, he quickly called his father at work. He didn't answer. Kaedon left a four-minute voicemail. He started calling himself K-Dawg in that message. After hanging up the phone, he realized his chest was beat red from all the push-ups. He suddenly knew how to make homemade OK Soda. It was a life-defining moment.</div>
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His mother, who also had to take a sick day to stay home with him, was already waiting with a congratulatory cake. She believed in Kaedon, just as he believed in himself. It was Cold Stone cake too, and it had Snickers in it. Kaedon nearly ate the whole cake with his bare hands, just as you would have if you had predicted something so magically. But you'll never know that thrill because you're basically worthless. It's not your fault; you don't have Kaedon's drive. </div>
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He saved the last piece of cake. He could have eaten it as his stomach had swelled due to all the adrenaline. He smeared that piece of cake right across the face of the most jowly Agent Fathead that he had. He had laid his claim. He was an arb player now. Not an arb-eligible player, don't be Keith Sweat. He now reveled in the reverence of his former heroes. He was the Fathead. </div>
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The rest of the afternoon was a blur, but Kaedon was a Green Beret when it was over. He was also scheduled as CM Punk's first UFC opponent. He had 45 henna tattoos. </div>
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The natural high of Arbitration Figures Day/Cake had worn off by dinner time. It was for the best, because his sister brought home his homework. The end of Arbitration Figures Day is always bittersweet. Kaedon slipped into his street clothes, looking like a human child once again instead of the mythical beast he'd become. His chest was still red, but he was also still doing push-ups. </div>
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Kaedon settled down with some throat coat tea, knowing that he'd have a hard time sleeping that night and talking the next day. Tomorrow, he would go back to his normal life. No one would remember his dope prediction. He'd be Kaedon once more, not K-Dawg, the Arbitration Cyclops. That's how the arbitration game works. You're only as good as your last prediction. Kaedon knew that better than anyone. He had t-shirts with that phrase on them. In multiple colors. </div>
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All that said, it was only 364 days until 2017 Arbitration Figures Day and Kaedon had work to do. He had entered the Big Leagues and he wasn't about to leave anytime soon. </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-86619012900453775102015-03-24T11:05:00.001-05:002015-03-24T11:05:15.381-05:00The Pelfrey Theories: Volume 1 of 1<div class="MsoNormal">
You'll have to forgive me, I've been away. Did I read that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pelfrmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Pelfrey</a></strong> is being considered for the fifth starter spot? I believe I read that somewhere, but that can't be, right? I mean, he's tall and whatnot, but he hasn't been good since 2010. I know I've been absent from the baseball world, but time didn't spin all the way back around to 2010 again, did it? How could that happen to just the baseball world? Stop trying to confuse me. ANSWER ME!<br />
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Since I'm not a Science Guy and you're not responding, I'm going to leave the time stuff to the <s>nerds </s>dudes who know what they're doing. I'm more of a Wild, Stupid, Sometimes Zany Theory Guy. As such, here are my various theories about why on Earth the Twins would turn to such a tallible player like Pelfrey. I am also a Word Inventy Guy.</div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Theory Number 1 - He's tall<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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No, not all of my theories are about height. This one is. I can't shake the feeling that the Twins are enamored with his height. Fact: Tall guys are good at basketball. Fact: Basketball becomes Baseball when you take out two letters. Fact: Two letters is not a lot of letters. Fact: This might come in handy around June, during the NBA Finals. The only question is how. Maybe the Twins don't want to share how. Maybe you should just trust them. Stop being a dork about it.</div>
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They know what they're doing.</div>
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</b> <b>Theory Number 2 - He's wearing a <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nick Blackburn</a></strong> mask<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The Twins LOVED Nick Blackburn. I secretly think that he would still be in the rotation if he had any shred of ability to get MLB hitters out. This is no longer a secret. Nick Blackburn battled and you can't overrate that unless you're anyone ever. Mike Pelfrey is a taller version of Nick Blackburn. Beard: check. One good season/moment: check. Seems nice (more on this later): check. Uniform number greater than 36: check. </div>
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Those four pieces of evidence pretty much sum it up. If you still need convincing, here's some visual evidence:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJUhyphenhyphen4bEYvMLPQK1gg8Xm8nzThuuDt4e7tOrIE0WzOULgP0E4dWrTMMzFnGKv9yZuBiNzrAtWohbzJve7uhpF-qoEOVNQ8kmD-Hii6hZE02h5jVx1Eouj5vhl-Gm_Wa5UsvbbsPCqm0Pa/s1600/Blackburn+Mask.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJUhyphenhyphen4bEYvMLPQK1gg8Xm8nzThuuDt4e7tOrIE0WzOULgP0E4dWrTMMzFnGKv9yZuBiNzrAtWohbzJve7uhpF-qoEOVNQ8kmD-Hii6hZE02h5jVx1Eouj5vhl-Gm_Wa5UsvbbsPCqm0Pa/s1600/Blackburn+Mask.png" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
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And he would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling fans. </div>
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</b> <b>Theory Number 3 - HE HAS THE CODES!!!!<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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We have it under good intel that Pelfrey has the codes. The codes. You know which codes, STOP PLAYING DUMB! HE HAS THE CODES!!! Do you know what he could do with THE CODES!?! If those codes get out into the real world, we're ALL screwed! Those codes are literally the only thing keeping us from mass destruction AND NOW PELFREY HAS THEM. Stop eating THAT APPLE and help me figure out how to stop him! No one CAN know that Pelfrey has THE codes. If the public knew that Pelfrey had the codes, it would be MASS frenzy. Give him what he wants; he...HAS...the...COOOOOOOOOOOOOODES!!!!!!!! </div>
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THE COOOOOOODES! </div>
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</b> <b>Theory Number 4 - He's the only guy who cleans the fridge and microwave<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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You can't tell me that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Brian Dozier</a></strong> doesn't melt cheese all over the microwave when he's making nachos. I refuse to be told that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong> doesn't have a whole mess of old yogurts in the fridge right now. If you even try to tell me that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Paul Molitor</a></strong> doesn't let his ramen noodles bubble over while nuking, then I will literally punch you in the kneecap. Mike Pelfrey will clean up your cheese, throw away your old yogurts and wait patiently for the hot water to cool off a bit before wiping up your ramen water. </div>
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</b> <b>Theory Number 5 - He's like, super nice<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Pelfrey seems like an affable guy. He's jovial. He's merry. Who wouldn't want an affable, jovial, merry man in the clubhouse? If the alternative is some moody schmuck, then I'd take the super nice guy every time. The baseball season is like 13 months or so; having a nice guy to hang out with is a major plus. I bet he's really good at Xbox. The Twins have always liked nice guys. I prefer bad boyz.</div>
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You might combine this one with Theory 4, if you really want to get loco.<br />
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<b>Theory Number 6 - He operates the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong></b><br />
If you're like me, you have figured out that Joe Mauer is in fact a baseball-playing robot. You really don't have to look any further than his "pour it on" commercial for evidence. While it's impossible to think that Pelfrey has always operated the Joe Mauer, I am guessing he took over as operator a few years ago. Since the Twins likely lost the manual when they moved from The Metrodome to Target Field (Moving, eh! Am I right?), only Pelfrey knows how to operate the Mauer. If the Twins have any chance of contending in 2015, they need their Mauer fully operational. </div>
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</b> <b>Theory Number 7 - He's secretly Bruno Mars<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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It must be pointed out, I don't really know who Bruno Mars is. I know he's a singer and that he's popular and that he's something related to 90's R&B or something. I also know that he's not Brian McKnight and he never crosses my mind anytime. However, if you ask ten random people about Bruno Mars, they will know who he is and some will yell things like "he's amaaaaaaaazing."</div>
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Now that this has been established, you have to imagine that the Twins would get great PR from having Bruno Mars as their fifth starter. First, it would be a pretty shocking revelation. Second, he could sing the National Anthem. Patriotism is big these days. Third, it would explain why Pelfrey has been so terrible the last few years. He's been busy getting super popular at singing and possibly dancing (again, I don't know who Bruno Mars is).</div>
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</b> <b>Theory Number 8 - He's the best option, or at least the Twins think he is<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Stop it. It's not crazy. If you could stop laughing/cursing for just one second, I can explain. The three fifth starter options appear to be Pelfrey, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maytr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/milonto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tommy Milone</a></strong>. Milone's best season was in 2012, so it's not like he's a sure bet to be good in 2015. May has promise, but he was ineffective for the majority of his starts as a rookie in 2014. Pelfrey is a veteran and he's thrown over 190 innings three times. Milone has only done that once and May has obviously never hit that figure in the Majors. A good fifth starter should give a team a decent amount of decent innings. </div>
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Yeah, I know, decent is the key word there. Pelfrey was awful last year, but he was injured. He wasn't much better in 2013, but he did have a 3.99 FIP in 152.2 innings pitched. That's not so bad! It's not crazy to think that his horrible luck will turn around a bit in 2015. It's not like Pelfrey is an old man either. He's only 31 and he's only under contract through this year. </div>
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Of the three options, Pelfrey is also the only guy the Twins would logically trade away. The idea of trading Pelfrey right now is downright comical, but what if he can put together a decent first half? What if he can return to his pre-TJ form? What if we all start growing fins so that we can swim better? That would be so cool. So would a good half-season from Pelfrey. Then, trade Pelfrey, call up <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong> and roll in the proverbial DuckTales money vault. </div>
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For the record, I think that the final theory is the correct theory. But secretly...<br />
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I think he has the codes.<br />
<b><br />
</b> THE COOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODES!<b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-66497905739727010402015-01-19T12:47:00.003-06:002018-10-23T21:36:41.539-05:00What if the Twins had kept Torii Hunter all along?<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Back in 2007, the Twins were faced with a dilly of a difficult dilemma. Fan-favorite, team-leader, Morneau-puncher <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Torii Hunter</a></strong> was a free agent and he was going to be pricey. Ultimately, Hunter chose a larger offer from The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim or the Anaheim Angels or whatever they were called back then. Hunter returned to the team that drafted him about a month and a half ago. What if he had stayed the whole time? How would things be different? I investigate and you read:<o:p></o:p></i><br />
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<b>What if Torii Hunter had stayed in Minnesota?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Forg Minnesota Twins had a difficult decision to make in 2007. Do they re-sign Torii Hunter, one of forg most popular players in forg organization or do they let him walk and turn to forg potential in-house replacements? Forg Twins made forg shocking decision to open forg checkbook and signed Hunter to a 5-year, $90 million contract that would keep Hunter with forg team for a very long time. Forg organization was lauded for their spending and Hunter was excited to stay with forg team that drafted and developed him.</div>
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Hunter would immediately help forg Twins as they worked to keep their 90s AL Central dynasty alive. Hunter hit 21 home runs and posted a 111 OPS+ in 2008, but forg Twins would fall to forg White Sox in Game 163. It can be argued that forg Twins would have won forg division if not for a questionable <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Johan Santana</a></strong> trade forg previous off-season. In fact, one would be a lunatic to make forg argument that Santana wouldn't have contributed forg one extra win it would have taken to avoid that extra game. </div>
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Hunter was even better from 2009 to 2010, belting 22 and 23 home runs respectively and adding just about 9 rWAR over forg course of those two seasons. Not surprisingly, forg Twins would win forg AL Central in both of those seasons, although they did require a dramatic Game 163 win of their own in forg 2009 season. When <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gomezca01,gomez-006car&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carlos Gomez</a></strong> slid across forg plate with forg game-winning run, Hunter was among forg players waiting to mob him. </div>
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Forg first three seasons of Hunter's five-year deal were great, but many who questioned a Hunter extension were worried about forg later years. Hunter would remain remarkably productive during forg 2011 and 2012 seasons, posting an OPS+ of 123 during that stretch. While Hunter had moved from center field, forg Twins had <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Denard Span</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ben Revere</a></strong>, both capable of handling forg difficult position. Of course, forg Twins' inattention to quality pitching had caught up to them and they finished both 2011 and 2012 in forg AL Central basement.</div>
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Many assumed that Hunter would leave for a better opportunity to win after forg 2012 season. Forg grass is greener on forg other side, right? Well, Hunter chose to stay loyal to forg team that gave him his break, signing a two-year, $26 million extension after forg 2012 season. Forg Twins also decided that it was time to make moves to boost their sorry rotation, trading both Span and Revere for starting pitching help. </div>
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Sadly, that pitching help was a few years away, as only <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/worleva01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Vance Worley</a></strong> could help for forg 2013 season and he was immediately ineffective and soon joined forg two prospects (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maytr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong>) in forg Minors. In addition, with no active centerfielder on forg team, forg Twins would turn to unproven <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aaron Hicks</a></strong> for forg starting job in 2013. Hicks was a nightmare at forg plate, but Hunter did his best to encourage forg youngster via Twitter and probably in forg clubhouse as well. Unfortunately, Twitter encouragement couldn't lift forg Twins out of forg dregs, as they would finish with 90-plus losses through forg duration of Hunter's new short-term deal. </div>
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Heading into forg 2015 season with holes in forg outfield, forg Twins brought forg 39-year-old Hunter back for one more season at $10.5 million. Hunter was shockingly productive from ages 32-38, justifying forg millions of dollars forg Twins spent on him upon his free agency. Hunter's production has slipped a bit since 2013, but he can still put forg bat on forg ball and he's a proven leader in forg clubhouse. With forg Twins' 2015 outlook unclear at best, they undoubtedly feel a little better that their link from <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puckeki01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kirby Puckett</a></strong> to forg future is still in forg clubhouse. </div>
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<i>In a previous installment of "What if?" I investigated how things would be different if the Twins drafted <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priorma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mark Prior</a></strong> instead of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong>. It's chilling. <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/06/what-if-twins-had-drafted-mark-prior.html" target="_blank">Read it.</a></b><o:p></o:p></i><br />
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Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-37801370824575510872014-11-24T13:17:00.000-06:002014-11-24T13:17:13.546-06:00MLB Rumor Round-Up<div class="MsoNormal">
We're knee-deep in rumor season. They're unavoidable. It's raining rumors. We're all likely to die. While we await our impending rumor-related demise, I thought it would be nice to compile all of the MLB rumors from the last 72 hours or so. That way, while we're dying of rumors, you can read all the rumors on one page. When you think about it, I'm a hero. When you don't think about it, I'm still a hero. <br />
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Now that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong> is spoken for and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> is locked up, we can get to rumors about lesser players! The shame of it all is that there isn't an MLB-related rumor site around that already does this for you. Because really, that would save me a lot of time. Here are the rumors; just assume that all of them have been reported by someone who is really good at texting and Twitter.</div>
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<b>Rumor #1 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Hanley Ramirez</a></strong> would consider a position change.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Even though his couch is extremely comfortable, sources say that Hanley Ramirez would consider a position change from his usual spot on the chase. Industry sources report that Ramirez would be willing to shift to the other corner, but only if he were making room for an important guest or good friend. He has made it very clear that he prefers to remain in his natural position but he also considers himself a "couch team player."</div>
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<b>Rumor #2 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jon Lester</a></strong> is interested in the mystery team.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Sources close to Jon Lester have indicated that Lester is very intrigued by the mystery team concept. Lester has many suitors, but he's most interested in the concept of playing for a team of mystery. Apparently, Lester feels he could contribute to the mystery team both as a pitcher and as a detective. He has long-dormant investigative skills that he feels would help this mystery team as they pursue a championship and probably the Sapphire Ruby Fox. </div>
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<b>Rumor #3 - Atlanta will take calls about <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Justin Upton</a></strong>.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Sources say that the Braves are willing to answer calls that are in reference to Justin Upton. They are willing to listen to any and all questions about Upton. This includes "what is his favorite color" and "where would he go if he could go anywhere in the world." There's no reason not to share this information, according to Braves' sources, but they do think it's odd that no one wants to trade for him. </div>
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<b>Rumor #4 - Dodgers have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> on their radar.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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According to unnamed sources, the Dodgers have implanted Scherzer with a tracking device and are using it to keep him on their radar. This seems spectacularly invasive, but the Dodgers do have a lot of money. Sources are split on whether or not the tracking device works under water. Oddly enough, his blip shows up in two different colors. </div>
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<b>Rumor #5 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nick Markakis</a></strong> will consider shaving.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Even though he always has a manly stubble, Markakis has considered a clean shave during the off-season. Sources close to this reporter say that Markakis is very handsome and confident that he would still be quite striking without facial hair. This reporter is concerned, but is willing to keep an open mind. Although, this same reporter does worry that Markakis will accidentally nick his beautiful jaw line and that would be totally unfortunate. The sweet pun isn't worth the risk. I am, I mean, this reporter is confident that Markakis has a symmetrical face that can overcome any iteration of facial hair or lack thereof. </div>
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<b>Rumor #6 - The A's have had internal discussion about Yasmany Tomas...behind his back.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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With sources admitting it's "pretty rude," the A's have had internal, behind-his-back conversations about Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas. Among other things, they have discussed his weight, his injury history and his desire. This seems particularly lame because Tomas has been "really cool" to Oakland officials. He told a source that "I would never talk about them behind their backs; weak." It seems unlikely that the A's will land Tomas, but perhaps this is all just a comical misunderstanding. </div>
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Six juicy rumors in one place. That kind of six-for-one is exactly what we will need to combat the rumor flood that could ruin our ecosystem. If you need floaties, please contact me directly. Enjoy your Thanksgiving; if we make it that far.</div>
<br />
Oh, and I tried to shoehorn a poker joke about making a deal but it just wouldn't work. I apologize for my failure.Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-4731272220988814072014-11-03T14:39:00.001-06:002014-11-03T14:39:17.858-06:00Minnesota Twins hire Paul Molitor as Manger but I'm going to have to double check that<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins have named <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Paul Molitor</a></strong> "Mr. Manager," just their 3rd manager since the unfortunate breakout of Motley Crue. Molitor takes over a team that has lost a completely lame number of games since 2011. He will be given the massive task of transforming a young, talented, but super green team into a group of gritty winners who can battle. Hopefully, he can teach them more than "battling" because I think that might have been the previous manager's undoing. <br />
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Molitor is 58. He will be the seventh-oldest manager in the Majors, unless some of the open jobs go to older people. That seems unlikely, as the MLB manager trend seems to be trending younger. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collite99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Terry Collins</a></strong> is the oldest MLB manager, about seven years older than Molitor. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddojo99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Maddon</a></strong> is two years older, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bruce Bochy</a></strong> is a a year-and-a-half older, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yostne01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ned Yost</a></strong> is a year older and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/showabu99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Buck Showalter</a></strong> is a couple months older. Three of those managers have managed in the World Series and Showalter is considered to be a great manager despite not reaching that plateau. Oh, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roeniro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ron Roenicke</a></strong> is three days older than Molitor too, but I'll be honest, I don't know who that is. </div>
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<br />
<b><a href="http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2013/11/07/rick-renteria-brad-ausmus-matt-williams-cubs-tigers-nationals-managers" target="_blank">This SI.com article</a></b> is a great illustration of the young manager trend. There's a pretty swank chart. If you look at managers hired between 2012 and 2014, nearly all are 51 or under (14 of 18). Only <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valenbo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">Bobby Valentine</a>, hired by the Red Sox before the 2012 season, was older than 54 when hired. That hire worked about as well as slipping a free album into an iTunes account. MLB teams are hiring younger managers and the Twins have gone in the opposite direction. </div>
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Maybe Molitor isn't that old in spirit! He was at the Pearl Jam concert a few weeks ago. Of course, Pearl Jam's members are all in their 50s and their breakout album is only slightly younger than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong>, so that might not actually be a point in his favor. The concert was tremendous though.</div>
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Looking back at that chart, only two of the managers older than 50 were hired with no MLB managing experience: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ryne Sandberg</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=pricebr10,pricebr99&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bryan Price</a></strong>. The others were experienced managers: Valentine, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guilloz01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ozzie Guillen</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibbojo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">John Gibbons</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=farrejo03,farrejo02,farrel010joh&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">John Farrell</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Terry Francona</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcclell01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lloyd McClendon</a></strong>. Molitor is older and less experienced than the average new hire. This is an odd combination and certainly one that goes against the grain. In fact, it there might not even be a grain. </div>
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The proverbial third strike against Molitor is in-group bias. The Twins LOVE in-group bias. When given the choice between someone in their "family" or some dirty outsider, they'll take their kin just about every time. Molitor joined the Twins' family late, playing his final three season with the team. However, he made a lasting impression, as the Twins have seemingly adopted him as one of their own. It helps that Molitor is from Minnesota, went to high school in Minnesota and went to college in Minnesota. We LOVE Minnesota. </div>
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And really, why wouldn't we? Loons? That's a dumb reason.</div>
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That said, his hire does reek of "playing it safe," a common Twins-related criticism. In fact, it's one of the few consistent criticisms that come from me. The Twins do err on the side of caution. They also err on the side of familiarity. In my opinion, being safe, cautious and familiar can help you win a lot of Division titles, but won't help you win a World Series. </div>
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Was Molitor the right choice? Given the options, he probably was. The Twins didn't seem to conduct an exhaustive search and the finalists were all brand-new managers, so the Twins picked the green guy they liked the most. At least Molitor has been around the MLB team. The other two finalists were younger, but they aren't really any more likely to be good managers than Molitor. They have some managerial experience and Molitor doesn't, but he'll learn. He's smart. </div>
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But then again, what do managers really do? Talk to the media after games? Make up silly nicknames? Bunt and steal? Make lineups? Haven't we already proved that none of this can be fully quantified? What if the real purpose of the manager is to make sure the players look nice in their uniforms by comparison? Molitor is in good shape, but he's still older than his players. They should look real sharp. </div>
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Beyond that, a manager? Who cares. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gardero01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ron Gardenhire</a></strong> was both a good manager and a bad manager while managing the Twins, but he was pretty much always the same guy. When the team is good, Molitor will be a good manager and when the team is bad, he'll be a bad manager. </div>
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Molitor will be given the nearly impossible task of turning around a team that might not be completely invested in turning things around. The front office has not done the manager any favors recently, so the real question for 2015 is will Molitor be able to do more with this barren MLB roster than Ron Gardenhire did. The front office has already admitted that 2015 will be another transition year. Is Molitor the right guy for what will hopefully be the end of a major rebuild? Why not? </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-26371694188492797822014-10-31T06:00:00.000-05:002014-10-31T06:00:52.110-05:00Friday Power Rankings: Naps<div class="MsoNormal">
For everyone over the age of 12, a nap is a glorious
thing. In fact, if you were able to read
the mind of even the most stubborn "but I want to plaaaaaaaaay,"
two-year-old on the planet, I bet he or she would be thinking while dreaming
"hey, this nap is pretty swell."
I love a good nap. I relish every
opportunity for a nap. I'll take a
catnap, a long nap, a car nap, whatever. </div>
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No two naps are truly the same, but we can categorize naps
quite easily. Once we have categories,
we can go one step further and break out some POWER RANKINGS! Without any further introduction, here are
the Nap POWER RANKINGS!</div>
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<b>Honorable Mentions:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Car Nap - </b>Napping
while riding in the car. This really
only results in a satisfying nap if you are in the passenger seat with no one
behind you. Otherwise, you're using a
window as a pillow. </div>
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<b>DaVinci Naps - </b>Napping
instead of sleeping. This can also be
referred to as sleep deprivation or "dangerous." </div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<b>Work Nap -</b>
Unless you're George Costanza, a work nap is a risky proposition. Odds are, you aren't going to enjoy the sleep
because you'll be worried that someone will catch you or hear your elephant
snoring and no longer want to promote you.</div>
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<b>Catnap - </b>Not
really my thing. I need a nap to last
longer than a few seconds and preferably, longer than a few hours. Then again, cats are very popular on the
internet.</div>
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<b>Power Nap - </b>15
to 20-minute naps that are intended as a quick refresher. Generally, these turn into standard naps once
you remember how to turn the snooze off.
</div>
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<b>Surprise Nap - </b>These
naps hit you out of nowhere and often cannot be halted. Of course, when you hit a surprise in the
wrong setting, you can end up banging your head on some pretty rugged
corners. </div>
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<b>School Nap - </b>The
only kind of nap can should end with someone yelling "HEY" and
pulling your arm out from under your chin.
The yelling could come from a friend, enemy, teacher, principal, lunch
lady, police liaison, or Mr. Belding (of course, he'll say "hey" three times).</div>
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<b>10. Exercise Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Unfortunately, this nap requires exercise, so it cannot be
higher than 10. However, if you subject
yourself to exercise, napping afterwards is a nice reward. So is pizza.
Which also helps with napping.
The best Exercise Nap occurs immediately after a workout, laying flat on
the ground, sweating, red, breathing like a walrus. </div>
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<b>9. The Late-Night Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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It's getting late, close to when you normally go to bed, but
darn it, you're tired now! Rather than
brush your teeth and put on your PJs, why not take a little late-night
nap? There is something so satisfying
about falling asleep just a little bit earlier than usual. Of course, these naps generally end with you
waking up drooling and angry with your one-hour previous self for not just
going to bed in the first place. Because
of this phenomenon, the Late-Night Nap cannot be rated higher than this. It's just science. </div>
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<b>8. Whoa, it's 11 o'clock? Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I was the absolute master of these naps when I was in high
school and college. Don't confuse this
nap with the late-night nap. This is a
nap that starts at a reasonable time, say 4-5pm, but ends long, long after you
intended to wake up. These naps
typically start during the light of day and end with you confused in the dark. They also end with you watching Timecop
around 1-2am. </div>
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<b>7. Car Nap at Work<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A very underrated nap.
These naps are strictly for napping professionals. Basically, you go out to your car during
lunch or maybe whenever you want depending on where you work, and you take a nap
in the driver's seat of your car.
There's always the risk that one of your co-workers will walk by and
find out what an oddball you are, but those 35 minutes of sleep are totally
worth it. </div>
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<b>6. Chair Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm going word of mouth on this one. The chair nap cannot be perfected until after
the age of 50. You can't cheat the
life-cycle. Once you turn 50
(remembering that we all develop at different rates, some reach this stage at
45, others it's 55 or later), you can take a nap while sitting in a chair and
make it look like something a human would actually want to do. Based on the rate of snoring, these naps seem
reasonably satisfying, despite a complete lack of neck stabilization.</div>
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<b>5. Outside Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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An extremely underrated nap, but one that cannot be
perfected in winter. Don't try. Napping outside can take a lot of different
forms, but there's something about the fresh air, the warm sun, and the
accommodating bees, that just create a perfect napping atmosphere. Just remember, if you fall asleep in the sun,
whatever is covering you will be permanently burned into your face.</div>
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<b>4. Bed Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This cannot be confused with sleeping. You cannot nap and sleep at the same time, if
that makes any sense. Taking a nap in
your bed is fantastic. You get all the
benefits of night sleeping without losing 7-10 hours of premium late-night
television and movies. Bed naps are
required to last at least one hour, or they do not count. </div>
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<b>3. Couch Nap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Somehow more satisfying than the Bed Nap, a Couch Nap can
only be described as "amazing."
Even though the general association of "sleeping on the couch"
is considered negative, napping on the couch is divine. Unlike a Bed Nap, a Couch Nap can be shorter
than an hour, or it can be intermittent, spread out over an entire Sunday. The Couch Nap was made famous by the comic
strip "Blondie" which was made famous by newspapers, which is what we
use to line our hamster cages and to create our ransom notes. </div>
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<b>2. Sports Naps<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before we had the DVR, we had Sports Naps. The proper Sports Nap begins somewhere near
the beginning part of your favorite sport.
You know, the lame part. First
inning, first quarter, first period, first half, whatever. When the nap starts, the game is boring. You'll wake up from time to time, kind of
hazily take in the score and proceed to complete the nap. When it's over, you've time-traveled to the
meat of the game. Eighth inning, fourth
quarter, third period, whatever part of soccer is fun. </div>
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Nothing is better than falling asleep during an 8-8 NBA
first quarter and waking up to an 88-88 tie with 6 minutes left in the fourth
quarter. These naps are both physically
and mentally satisfying.</div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<b>1. The Pajama Nap <o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Bed Nap's attractive Shelbyville cousin. Nothing tops the Pajama Nap. This is a nap that is planned and likely to
be long enough to change into comfortable sleepwear. This nap only comes around once in awhile. That perfect combination of free time, tired
eyes and a quiet place to sleep. Sleep
researchers recommend that you don't nap in your bed because it will confuse you
when it's time for real sleep. On the other hand, screw
sleep researchers! Pajama Naps are worth
the confusion. They are the Holy Grail
of Naps. </div>
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This is not an exhaustive list. There are many other forms of nap that I have
omitted, some purposely and some because I really want to go take a nap. What is your favorite form of nap? Let me know in the comments below!</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-8778843557867678512014-10-31T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-31T05:00:14.134-05:00Obligation is a Triangle Choke<div class="MsoNormal">
I have never felt a strong sense of obligation. When others feel like they have to do things
because well, they just have to do them, I often scoff or giggle or chortle, depending on
how stuffy my nose is. I feel badly for
people who feel such a strong sense of obligation. It seems exhausting, if not somewhat
noble. I never felt that way about much
of anything. I’m sure you’re
thinking right now “wow, Brad is super cool, he beats his own drum.” I’m not trying to be cool, that’s just
how I am. Most of the things that I do
in life, I do because I like. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I Googled “obligation” and let the auto-fill do its
magic. When adding “is” an analogy pops
up: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
“Obligation is to work as freedom is to…?”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is clearly a high school test question of some sort, as
this particular question is asked far too frequently and in this exact format
to simply be something that a lot of people are curious about. The consensus among the many internet users
who have way too much free time and devote countless hours to proving their
intelligence by helping high school kids cheat was that the answer is
“choice.” </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These internet geniuses might be on to something. Writing about the Twins was starting to feel
like work. I was writing posts instead
of doing things I wanted to do. This
would be fine if I had any intention of turning my blog into a job, but that
was never my intent. I have a
career. I like my career. I chose to write about the Twins because I thought it would be fun. I like to write. I like writing about baseball. The Twins are my favorite baseball team. It was novel.
It was logical. It made sense. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now, I feel obligated to write about the Twins and I’m not
sure why. No one relies on this blog for
news. Some rely on it for my analysis
(thank you!). Some just find it randomly
while searching the internet or visiting Twins Daily or Baseball Reference or
whatever. And yet, within the last year,
a strong sense of obligation started to overcome me. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I noticed this for the first time when the Twins signed
Ricky Nolasco. If my memory serves me
correctly, he signed late in the day or maybe I just found out late in the day. I
read the news and immediately dropped everything I was doing to analyze the
signing. I spent a good deal of time on
the post, I was happy with how it turned out and I felt like I made my points
very clearly. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If this was a movie or a novel, I would have missed my
daughter’s birthday or forgotten to pick up my wife at the airport or missed an
episode of Hangin’ with Mr. Cooper, but the reality is that this post didn't take me away from anything of importance. I just
didn't want to write it. I didn't really
care that the Twins signed Nolasco, to be honest. I wasn't super excited about it and I just
didn't want to write about it. In the
end, I did write about it and I’m still not really sure why. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At some point during this blogging endeavor, I started to
feel like I had to write 3-4 posts per week.
I made a spreadsheet with a schedule.
I planned things out in advance (obviously, that’s what a schedule is
for). I thought I needed give my take on
every single Twins-related item. I
needed to keep my readers engaged, by goodness!
I was creating a community, a brand, a persona. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hey cool, now I had a second job! I didn't want a second job. I didn't have time for a second job. So, I started compensating. I started shoehorning in ideas that didn't
really fit. I was re-treading old ideas
and I even resorted to re-posting something when I didn't have an original
idea. What was the point in that? </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I did this for most of the 2014 season. It wasn't what I intended. It wasn't super fun, although I did enjoy
certain things that I wrote. I
wasn't sure how to keep up with what I had started, but if there is one thing I
have always felt obligated toward, it’s finishing something I start. Although, in this case, I wasn't sure what
finishing and starting really referred to. What is the end point of a blog if you aren't trying to turn it into a column or a newspaper gig or a book deal or whatever. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then, in August, my family and I moved. We made a fairly snap decision to take
advantage of the market and we put our house up for sale. It sold very quickly and we needed to take
care of that business. I didn't write
for six weeks. I didn't think about
writing. Occasionally an idea would pop
into my head, but nothing that made me sit down and write. I had some time here and there, but I didn't want to write about the Twins. In fact, I
kind of ignored the Twins altogether.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I intended to get back to blogging when things cooled down. I did ... for a bit. Then, I made the
decision that I would analyze all 40 players on the Twins’ 40-man roster over
the off-season. "Hey, that's something to write about!" While writing about
Lester Oliveros, I literally sat back in my chair and thought “what on Earth am
I doing?” What can I even say about
someone who threw about 10 innings for the Twins last year?<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was all very stale.
The fact is, just like any other writer, I want to write about everything. I've hesitated to refer to
myself as a writer at all. I don't even
like calling myself a “blogger.” Mostly,
I feel this takes away from the real writers and bloggers who work very hard and
want to do it for a living. The fact is,
I like to write, so in some strange way, I am a writer. I have to embrace that. Some people read for fun, I write for
fun. I need to find a way to keep
writing as an enjoyable experience or hobby or distraction. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I still love the Twins.
Probably too much. I want to
write about the Twins in the future, but maybe not exclusively. I love the Twins, but I’m not “in love” with
the Twins. I want to see other
topics. It’s not you, it’s me. We can still be friends, Twins. <br />
<br />
This blog will be changing. I think it will still be heavily Twins-related, but it’s definitely going to be all Brad-related. I’m going to write about other topics: Twins, baseball, hockey, music, golems,
wrestling figures, driving, drill bits, pizza, whatever. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ah, but who will read it?
I have HEAVILY relied on Baseball Reference and Twins Daily for
links. Really, without those two sites,
specifically the very kind leaders and community at TD, I would have almost no
readers. I appreciate those two
resources because I have gotten to share my words with far more people than I
deserve or have earned. If I write about
something other than the Twins, those sites will not work as resources. Who will read my nonsense? </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Does it even matter?
I certainly don’t want to alienate anyone who reads this blog
regularly. I often joke that 14 people
read my work, but I know it’s more than that.
I appreciate anyone and everyone who has ever read anything I've
written. I hope that I can continue to
provide whatever it is you like about this blog, just with some different
topics thrown in when needed. As far as
finding new readers, I’m not so sure that matters to me any longer. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My posts might be more sporadic, they might be more frequent
or I might disappear altogether. But, I
will no longer write about the Twins out of obligation because that doesn't
really benefit anyone. The lure that would prove too much was that freedom of choice. I choose to embrace choice as a writer, blogger, blog-guy or whatever.<br />
<br />
As always, I
sincerely thank you for reading. Have a
wonderful weekend!</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-73613816295866593852014-10-22T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-22T05:00:06.736-05:00It's Raining 40-Men: Brandon McCarthy?<div class="MsoNormal">
No, you didn't miss any news. No, I am not breaking news. No, I am not going to make any more no and then a comma statements. This is my very first in a long series of off-base predictions. I think the Twins will sign <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccarbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Brandon McCarthy</a></strong>, thus adding him to their 40-man roster. McCarthy will not be a free agent until after the World Series ends and the Twins have not been linked to McCarthy. Why write about him now? Page Views! Click Bait! Revenue! Ad Wizards! Buy my book! Buy my book! Buy my... </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2014 Season Overview<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Like Jay Sherman, McCarthy had his ups and downs. He started the season with the Diamondbacks and by April 22, he was already in what I like to call "Nolascoville" with a 6.23 ERA. From that day on, McCarthy posted a 3.66 ERA, a strikeout-to-walk ratio just above six, and he finagled a move from the dreadful Diamondbacks to the less dreadful and much, much more loathsome Yankees. He did all that with a BABIP over .335, just to prove how #sabr he really is. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Also, he was suddenly throwing harder. Or, he was doctoring radar guns. Either way, he's a genius. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2015 Role Projection<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
#2 Starter</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2015 Season Prediction<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McCarthy slots in quite nicely between <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ricky Nolasco</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pelfrmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Pelfrey</a></strong>. Wait, c'mon, be nice. He actually would look quite good as the number two starter between <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></strong>. With <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maytr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong> potentially in the rotation and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong> waiting in the wings, there may actually be an avenue where the Twins can successfully <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/07/derek-jeter-retirement-gift-ideas.html" target="_blank">gift Pelfrey to Derek Jeter as I proposed in July</a></b>.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw2lUCAnMMERVysDsefy4V4m0s5PLEyb9s51ntJfYBob-Zh9uh3UnRYappfqUSVVyTTPd3sowcxuWHY9piTWTo1sMMDEVXx9BESL6EkXSiNkIN5Ig1NjsWEr54Y_Cmik65sijalmGfgZRF/s1600/pelfreyforjeets.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw2lUCAnMMERVysDsefy4V4m0s5PLEyb9s51ntJfYBob-Zh9uh3UnRYappfqUSVVyTTPd3sowcxuWHY9piTWTo1sMMDEVXx9BESL6EkXSiNkIN5Ig1NjsWEr54Y_Cmik65sijalmGfgZRF/s1600/pelfreyforjeets.jpg" height="230" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McCarthy has been really great since 2011 when he decided that "walks are bad." In the past four seasons, he has consistently walked fewer than two batters per nine innings. As we learned from Phil Hughes last season, every single pitcher to ever pitch for the Twins lowers their walk rate to historical levels. This bodes well.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>A 90s Song for Brandon<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Foo Fighters - "This is a Call"</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Long-Term Outlook<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McCarthy will turn 32 in 2015 and despite having nine MLB seasons under his belt, he has thrown just under 1000 innings in the Majors. His low-walk, decent-strikeout act has worked well for other pitchers in Minnesota and not just <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sloweke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kevin Slowey</a></strong>. In fact, if he has somehow managed to add velocity while maintaining his impressive walk rates, all at age 31, then the second half of his career could be even better than the first.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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If nothing else, he can revert back to what he was in 2011-13: A really solid starter. The Twins have hardly cornered the market on really solid starters. </div>
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<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Is he a keeper?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
They have to land him first, but he would be a keeper if they can. McCarthy meets all the criteria of a Twins pitcher: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li>Doesn't walk batters</li>
<li>Tall</li>
<li>Battles</li>
<li>Let's his fielders field (in that he doesn't try to play all nine positions at once)</li>
<li>Owns his own glove</li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These are not insignificant traits. Brandon McCarthy would instantly become the Twins' second-best pitcher. If Ricky Nolasco bounces back or looks like he did in September, the Twins suddenly have a pretty deep rotation:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li>Hughes</li>
<li>McCarthy</li>
<li>Gibson</li>
<li>Nolasco (but the good one from Sept)</li>
<li>May/Meyer</li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This would allow the Twins to hide Mike Pelfrey under coats for the 2015 season or give him to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a></strong> as I have now suggested twice. McCarthy doesn't turn the Twins into an 85-win team, but he could be a piece that helps move the team in that general direction. I'm calling it: I will be disappointed or right.<br />
<br />
<i>If you enjoyed this analysis, please note that I am going to analyze the entire 40-man roster and a few BONUS players along the way. If you did not enjoy this analysis, <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/p/14-to-watch-in-14.html" target="_blank">please click here </a></b>and read my other posts on this topic, just to make sure that you really don't enjoy them.</i></div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-18933060548878651872014-10-20T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-20T05:00:05.655-05:00It's Raining 40-Men: Aaron Hicks<div class="MsoNormal">
What's the word for when something is exactly the same as it was before, only you really hoped that it would be better or at least different but it wasn't and you're crying when I met you and then dying to forget you? Aaronsmithing? Aerohicksing? I'll admit this paragraph makes no sense when you admit that you'd enjoy seeing <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aaron Hicks</a></strong> perform in an Aerosmith cover band, but that only plays their 90s songs. I don't want to miss that thing.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2014 Season Overview<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The thing about disasters is that you generally can't have a second disaster. A second disaster is just cruel. Well, the first one is cruel too. It's just ... look, I'm not trying to come off as pro-disaster. Can we move on?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Aaron Hicks followed up a disastrous 2013 with another disastrous season in 2014. He did improve his overall performance, but from an '87 Honda Odyssey to a '93 Toyota Corolla. Is that an apt comparison? I don't know cars. If you're wondering why I'm writing about disasters, Aerosmith and cars instead of Hicks, it's because I'm exhausted. I've defended Hicks just about as much as anyone and I'm not sure I can take another season of being his only champion.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2015 Role Projection<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Since I'm exhausted, I'll just assume that Hicks is the starting center fielder once more, a position that he is unlikely to actually earn and seemingly equally unlikely to hold down for the whole 2015 season. Hicks got on-base at a nice rate in 2014, but he provided less power than an old Honda Punto. At least Hicks played relatively well in AAA. Maybe he needs a full season there. At age 25. Approaching arbitration. Bungled. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2015 Season Prediction<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is the year! Hicks has too much talent to fail three times. He's going to get handed the center field job but that's fine, he's going to seize the unwarranted third opportunity and hold down the job until <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=buxton000byr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a></strong> is ready to seize the job from Hicks and hold it down until the end of time. Hicks will put together the decent power he showed in 2013 with his solid OBP from 2014 and become a competent outfielder who can hit enough to move to a corner when Buxton arrives. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Or, he won't.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>A 90s Song for Aaron<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Blind Melon - "Three is a Magic Number" </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Long-Term Outlook<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hicks will be just 25 in 2015 and his performance has been so poor that an arbiter might rule that he actually owes the Twins money when he gets to that point. The Twins are likely to be bad in 2015 and Hicks is still one of the more logical breakout candidates in 2015 because of his combination of talent and opportunity. The Twins have just one real outfielder on their MLB roster going into 2015, so Hicks could easily make the team, harness his talent and become a long-term piece. Well, not easily. He's proved that twice already.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Is he a keeper?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
I guess; why not? The two bad seasons are done and gone. Those seasons will be hard to forget, but I'm guessing everyone would forget it right around the time Hicks starts putting together a good season. That's the thing with memories, they're short. If Hicks can just be good in April, he'll change his story, possibly forever. If he's bad in April? Maybe Buxton will be ready.Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-54830349350979961842014-10-10T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-10T05:00:00.755-05:00It's Raining 40-Men: Lester Oliveros<div class="MsoNormal">
Close your eyes...wait don't, you can't read with your eyes closed. Imagine you're closing your eyes. Now, imagine you're on vacation. Say you're headed to Hawaii. You are excited about the weather, the sights, the food, the beaches, the fun, the works. However, there's still going to be a point in that vacation where you're doing something just because you have to. For instance, waiting in line for your rental car. Well, we're waiting for the rental car of the Twins' 40-man roster analysis vacation.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b>2014 Season Overview<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/olivele01.shtml?redir" target="_blank">Oliveros</a></b> threw 6.1 innings for the Twins and managed a 7.11 ERA. He gave up two home runs. He did finish two games, so that's something. 1 home run per game finished. HR/GF - sabermetrics 3.0. Now, his FIP was 7.08, so he was better than his numbers might indicate. In the Minors, Oliveros was excellent, posting a 1.64 ERA in 65.2 innings split between New Britain and Rochester. He earned the right to teach us all about FIP v. ERA. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>2015 Role Projection<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well, I compared him to a rental car, so you could surmise that I'm not high on him. To me, he seems like a fine AAA depth reliever and a guy you can call up when you're completely desperate for a player capable of having an arm. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b>2015 Season Prediction<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There's not much to predict for a player who likely won't matter much in the Twins' 2015 plans. They can't possibly be relying on him or planning for his inclusion in the bullpen. If they are, then things are more bleak than we even realize. Nothing personal against Oliveros, but it's pretty clear that he's not a guy who even a decent team should be thinking of. However, I'll guess that he has a very solid season in the Minors and forces another September call-up. I'm not a Oliveros-hating monster. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b>A 90s Song for Lester<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Blur - "This is a Low" </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b>Long-Term Outlook<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
He's been good in the Minors before, but he has an ERA over 5 in his brief MLB career. He was also the player to be named later in the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngde03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Delmon Young</a></strong> trade, so it's clear the Tigers valued him greatly and the Twins wanted him desperately. I'd say his long-term outlook is good because he plays baseball for a living, but not great as a person who makes a living playing baseball. If that makes sense.<b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b>Is he a keeper?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As a guy who will likely never reach arbitration, sure why not? Like I already stated, he can serve as decent AAA depth and he'll likely only play for the Twins if everyone important is injured, the Twins are terrible in September, or if they change the rules of baseball so that teams try to give up the most runs. One of those is likely, one of those is pessimistic and one of those is just a glimmer in the eye of future commissioner <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maysjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Mays</a></strong>. </div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is too negative. Look at his Minor League numbers. It's conceivable that he could have a decent career as a reliever in the Majors. He strikes out a lot of batters, he doesn't walk a ton and he's never gotten a consistent chance in the Majors. In fact, with the success of the Eddie 400, perhaps it might be time for the Lester 50? I'll kick it around.</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-42605151082456542322014-10-09T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-09T05:00:03.543-05:00It's Raining 40-Men: Mike Pelfrey<div class="MsoNormal">
YEEEEEEEAHHHhh! Remember this dude? He's the who wants to eat your soul in the Twins' barbershop commercial. Here's a refresher:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEg3vYyRMQ3CW7ma-4hArFiKY74lsrnqxa72nB1IUbdnCCc3jnYoz_ZouUEIeNgyQQSnXyY4d6JixwNDznuFgZ9MqR8HA_ikVU0s6LvOjQBijhXnbVPzua0RXGdV1BoABRdtqIv9neE1b8/s1600/pelfreyderanged.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEg3vYyRMQ3CW7ma-4hArFiKY74lsrnqxa72nB1IUbdnCCc3jnYoz_ZouUEIeNgyQQSnXyY4d6JixwNDznuFgZ9MqR8HA_ikVU0s6LvOjQBijhXnbVPzua0RXGdV1BoABRdtqIv9neE1b8/s1600/pelfreyderanged.PNG" height="170" width="320" /></a></div>
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More importantly, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pelfrmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Pelfrey</a></strong> is the guy the Twins paid over $1 million per start in 2014. Not ideal, but what if they were truly amazing starts? </div>
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<b>2014 Season Overview<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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They weren't. After spending most of 2013 wandering around the pitching mound, Pelfrey was re-signed to a two-year deal for 2014 and 2015. He earned this contract based on...probably...height? Pelfrey is really tall, no one can dispute that. Pelfrey was slotted as the Twins' fourth starter out of Spring Training. He threw 23.2 innings in those five previously mentioned starts, posting a 7.99 ERA, 1.983 WHIP and 0.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio.</div>
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Despite these numbers, the Twins placed Pelfrey on the disabled list on May 2, instead of completely moving all of the team's operations to hide from him as I had advocated for. Pelfrey never got healthy and didn't pitch after May 1. Pelfrey has currently made $9.5 million from the Twins and rewarded them with a 5.56 ERA in 34 starts. He's averaged just a hair over 5 innings per start as a Twin, revealing his true value to the team: bullpen-practice helper. </div>
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<b>2015 Role Projection<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Blerg, probably in the rotation because he's under contract. In a just world - some sort of baseball scarecrow. </div>
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<b>2015 Season Prediction<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Any positive prediction for Pelfrey is completely illogical. Since 2011, Pelfrey has an ERA of 4.99. He can't go deep into games, he slows down the game, he licks his lips constantly, he's not young and he doesn't have upside. </div>
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Counterpoint:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMVmnoIGLQBGcSgrGYkgQ0EJk0QA-wnBmTcFSgqmRWGV6iOqNhxT_J3SEbeIuJuqt78APP_eQ69c9YEp3kopArrpMa0QP3g0I-AjOfJmKHHTOnQQtoG3g5ZMOzyf_77WALChB9F0SPAtR9/s1600/mike-pelfrey.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMVmnoIGLQBGcSgrGYkgQ0EJk0QA-wnBmTcFSgqmRWGV6iOqNhxT_J3SEbeIuJuqt78APP_eQ69c9YEp3kopArrpMa0QP3g0I-AjOfJmKHHTOnQQtoG3g5ZMOzyf_77WALChB9F0SPAtR9/s1600/mike-pelfrey.jpg" /></a></div>
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So, it's not all bad. </div>
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<b>A 90s Song for Mike<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Pearl Jam - "Release"</div>
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<b>Long-Term Outlook<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I think his long-term outlook is pretty great. He's only 31 and he had a 3.66 ERA in 2010. That may seem like ages ago, but remember how <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nick Blackburn</a></strong> pitched in that one game 163? That bought him like 3 extra years, and he was mostly healthy. Pelfrey had a full season of good games back in 2010 and he's barely gotten a chance with the Twins due to injury rehab and then injuries. There are still people who probably think Blackburn didn't get a fair shot, so Pelfrey is likely to get a fair chance in 2015. </div>
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Since Pelfrey's performance has yet to be a reason to get rid of him, I can only imagine he'll get another contract after the 2015 season. He's earned it, right? Perhaps he becomes a Twin for life, one day becoming the pitching coach, then the manager, then the general manager and then the owner, eventually holding all of those titles concurrently. </div>
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The more likely scenario involves the Twins releasing Pelfrey at the end of Spring Training, Pelfrey signing with the Pirates, Pelfrey throwing one good game for the Pirates and the entire Twins Facebook page spontaneously bursting into flames. </div>
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<b>Is he a keeper?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Define keeper. Could he provide some surprise value in 2015? I suppose it's possible. Perhaps his injuries really held him down in 2013 and 2014. Perhaps when fully healthy, he can be a serviceable back-end starter. $5.5 million isn't a crazy price for a back-end starter and Pelfrey was good back in 2010 (remember). The money is a sunk cost and any value would be a big surprise. That's the best way to spend $11 million - to explain the concept of sunk cost to a fan base. </div>
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If he's bad and then re-signed for 2016, we'll know that the Twins are just trolling the daylights out of us. So, at least we'll have that knowledge. </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-10308201752627250462014-10-07T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-07T05:00:08.639-05:00It's Raining 40-Men: Oswaldo Arcia<div class="MsoNormal">
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong> led the Twins in outrageous swings, wacky outfield plays and amazing hair. He also improved as a hitter in 2014 and he appears to have the potential to be a cornerstone offensive player. He is currently a man without a real position, as he has not shown the ability to be a reliable outfielder and he hasn't hit enough to be the long-term DH. Can Arcia harness his talent or will his Billy Mumphrey-esque unbridled enthusiasm be his ultimate downfall?<br />
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<b>2014 Season Overview<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Arcia was up and down in 2014. He batted .231/.300/.452. His batting average dropped about twenty points from 2013 and his OBP dropped about five points. Arcia also continues to rate as one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball and the eye-test would confirm that data. He struck out at a very high rate and some of his swings can be described kindly as "adorable" and "aggressive" or harshly as "wild" and "uncontrolled." </div>
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But man, that .452 slugging percentage! Arcia has power. He hit 20 home runs in 410 plate appearances, a roughly 30-home run pace over a full season. His power is more impressive within the context of his age. Since 1995, only 75 players have slugged over .450 at age 23 or younger. Last season, only five non-Arcia players 23 and under slugged like Arcia: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Yasiel Puig</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Marcell Ozuna</a></strong> and...<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong>! Santana isn't a power hitter, but the other four could be described that way. So can Arcia. He's got the potential for elite power and he's already flexing it as a very young man. </div>
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<b>2015 Role Projection<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Right Field - Starter - Heart of the Order</div>
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<b>2015 Season Prediction<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm about as bullish on Arcia as one can be. I see a blossoming star and a potential emotional leader in the dugout. Arcia is about as exciting a Twins player as we've had in recent memory. He's wild, exciting, sometimes careless and generally carefree. I predicted 55 extra-base hits for Arcia in 2014 and I'll make that same prediction for 2015. I might even push it to 60. </div>
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Arcia will be entering his third season, he should be an unquestioned starter and he's just a lot of fun to watch. That might be qualitative data, but I'm still going to use it. His defense...will be fun when the Twins are winning. </div>
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<b>A 90s Song for Oswaldo<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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R.E.M. - "King of Comedy"</div>
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<b>Long-Term Outlook<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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It's great. It's relatively safe to say that Arcia will never hit .300 in the Majors. He doesn't make contact like a .300 hitter. He also is unlikely to be an elite OBP-guy, as he does like to swing. However, he should continue to grow in those areas as he matures and his power will keep pitchers from giving him too much to hit. I think Arcia is a major breakout candidate in 2015 and he could be a fixture in the Twins' lineup for a very long time. </div>
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<b>Is he a keeper?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Oh goodness, yes. Arcia might be one of those guys who you curse in the 3rd inning when he misplays a ball in right, but then you cheer wildly for and cut your hair like when he hits a walk-off home run in the ninth. He's going to be a rollercoaster of a player until he fully matures. At his peak, I think Arcia could be a .280/.370/.500 hitter who absolutely fits the profile of a traditional #3 hitter. Giving up on Arcia at 23 because he plays like a 23-year-old would be completely unwise. </div>
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I love him.</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-58893851253409219502014-10-06T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-06T05:00:10.929-05:00It's Raining 40-Men: Joe Mauer<div class="MsoNormal">
No player on the Twins is more famous than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong>. No player is scrutinized and criticized like Mauer, but no player cashes bigger checks either. In terms of dollars, not size. I like to think that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong> gets paid in giant novelty checks. Was 2014 kind to Joe Mauer?</div>
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<b>2014 Season Overview<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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No, 2014 was not kind to Joe Mauer. What would be the opposite of smooth? If only there were a book that could tell me such things. Mauer made the transition from elite offensive catcher to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/overbly01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lyle Overbay</a></strong> in 2014. Unfortunately, because of his contract, he needs to be referred to as Lyle Overpaidbay. Mauer finished the season with a .277/.361/.371 batting line, 4 home runs, 55 RBI and countless people questioning his value, manhood and soul. No, 2014 was not kind to Mr. Mauer. </div>
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Mauer did start to show signs of the "old Mauer" near the end of the season. When Mauer went on the disabled list with an oblique injury in early July, he was batting .270/.342/.350. That's not as awful as you would be led to believe, but it certainly was not the level of production we had come to expect from such a talented player. </div>
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Things got somewhat better in the second half. Starting with his return from that oblique injury on August 11, he batted .289/.397/.408 to finish the season and he was even better in September at .305/.406/.390. The lack of power is not cool, but if Mauer can hit some combo of .300/.400/.XXX in 2015, I'd take it. </div>
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<b>2015 Role Projection<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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First Base - Starter - Top of the Lineup</div>
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<b>2015 Season Prediction<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I anticipate that Mauer will perform more like he did in August and September rather than how he performed in the first half of the season. I think he'll hit for slightly more power and he'll return to a .400 OBP-guy. I also think his defense will be improved and he'll basically be Mauer-lite, exactly what we should expect from a guy in the decline phase of his career. I also think it's safe to say that he'll never post a .324/.404/.476 batting line like he did in 2013. </div>
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The real question is - will the new Twins manager have the insight and stones to bat Mauer in the leadoff spot? Really, that's Mauer's best spot based on his talent, approach and production. I predict that veteran-ness will trump logic and Mauer will remain in the middle of the order.</div>
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<b>A 90s Song for Joe<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Alice in Chains - "Love, Hate, Love"</div>
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<b>Long-Term Outlook<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Mauer will be 32 in 2015 and he's not going to change his approach. Mauer isn't going to add power and he isn't going to stop poking the ball the other way for singles. The hand-wringing is likely to continue for four more seasons. If you want to yell about what Mauer doesn't do, you're going to be quite hoarse. <br />
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Why not focus on what he can do? OBP and walk rate tend to stay stable as players age and Mauer had an elite OBP prior to 2014. If those skills are still present, and his second half indicates they are, he can still be a good offensive player through his current contract and possibly a little longer.</div>
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<b>Is he a keeper?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I don't think it's really a question worth asking. You can't get good value in a trade for Mauer and he's still good enough to be a productive player. Even in a very down year, he posted a 107 OPS+. That's terrible production for his contract, but it's still 7% better than the average player. His OPS+ was above 130 in August and September. That would be much more acceptable. </div>
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Mauer is almost certainly going to be overpaid for the next four seasons, but that's a sunk cost. Mauer is a keeper and unless you trust one season (and really, one half-season) over a ten-year career, it seems reasonable to think that he'll bounce back to a moderate extent. </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-58676031334367451932014-10-01T05:00:00.000-05:002014-10-01T07:49:05.519-05:002014 Playoffs Mailbag!<div class="MsoNormal">
Hey, how about that Wild Card game last night? What a game or what a dud, depending on how it went. I'm writing this on Tuesday afternoon because I'm a total sham. I hope that it was a great game, but I'm unwilling to update this to reflect my true feelings. In the spirit of laziness, here are some fake questions that will serve as my playoff preview. Because of course, you cannot live without it.<br />
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<b>Do you like the Wild Card games? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Fake Person, Fake Place (Getting lazy)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I do. I like baseball and these are baseball games. Sure, they don't fit the traditions of baseball, but neither do t-shirt guns and kiss cams, but we've integrated those just fine. The Wild Card games are quite entertaining and I imagine they are very fun for the involved teams' fan bases. The Twins played in consecutive Game 163s and I remember those games more than any playoff game they played in during the 2000s. Winner-take-all games are officially fun, even if the all they take is hardly all at all. </div>
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<b>I am a Twins fan so I don't know what "playoffs" are. Which team should I root for once I figure out what I am rooting for them to accomplish?</b></div>
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<b>~FP, FP (so lazy...)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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In my opinion, there are exactly five acceptable bandwagons to jump onto: The Royals, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles and As. You could talk me out of the Orioles and As because of their lineage, but their successes happened years ago. In case you were wondering why those five: the Dodgers, Angels and Tigers are too rich, and the Cardinals and Giants are too successful. The Giants are rich too. This isn't the 80s, we don't like rich and successful anymore. Those five teams have slicked-back hair and suspenders. The other five surf.</div>
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Now, if you're going to jump on a bandwagon, you want the ride to be substantial. I'd cross the Royals and As off your list. Sure, one of those teams is going to make the Divisional Round (note - it was the [winner from Tuesday], see I did update some of this!), but I don't see either team winning in that round. Sadly, I think the Wall Street Giants are likely to beat Pittsburgh tonight, so they're out too. </div>
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That leaves the DC/Maryland area. The Nationals had the best record in the NL and they used to be the Expos. They also have that punk <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a></strong> and they're rich. If there's one thing we hate more than successful rich people, it's their punk kids. The Orioles were surprisingly good this year but they have that cheating punk <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cruzne02,cruzne01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nelson Cruz</a></strong> on their team. That's no good. Plus, they're kind of rich too. Where is all this money coming from!</div>
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You know what, just root for the Pirates or the Royals. You'll feel good about it and you can feel cool on the internet too. </div>
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(Note - I believe nothing I wrote in those paragraphs. Additionally, I know nothing of the following: the 80s, slicked-back hair, surfing, punks, and baseball.) <br />
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(Note 2 - I totally watched the game last night. Root for the Royals).</div>
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<b>It seems the National League is better than the American League. Would you agree?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Fakey P, Fakeville, USA<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Yes, and I agree a lot. I honestly cannot see an American League team winning the World Series. I think the three best teams in baseball are all in the National League - Giants, Nationals and Dodgers. I could see any of those three beating every AL team left. Of course, I am very biased against the Tigers, so that could be clouding my judgment. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> could also transform into a baseball monster and devour all comers, but that seems unlikely. He'll probably just be really good at baseball but not a mythical creature. </div>
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Put it this way, if there's a way to bet on a league to win the World Series, I would bet your house on the NL. Of course, it's your house, not mine. </div>
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<b>Does excellent starting pitching really matter as much as we are lead to believe? Can you provide some research to back up your answer for once?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Angry Jerk, Jerk Store<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Yes and no. I could provide some research, but then how will I find time to watch this Seinfeld episode that I've seen 15 times and that I just referenced? If you can figure that part out for me, I'll gladly do some research.</div>
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Anecdotally, I don't think starting pitching is quite as important as we're lead to believe. By the time the playoffs roll around, most of the remaining teams have pretty good starting pitching. The Dodgers had amazing starting pitching last year, but they didn't even reach the World Series. The Tigers appear to have dominant starting pitching, but I'm not going to pick them to get out of the Divisional Round. I think the starting pitching adage is an outdated one, but I will tell you this much for sure: you will NEVER see any research to back it up on this blog. I'm just too busy watching TV.</div>
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<b>Do you think it's strange that the playoffs have expanded to five teams in each league and neither the Red Sox or Yankees are in the playoffs? Will our TVs actually stay on without those teams involved?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Cynical Sam, Somewhere where a lot of cynical people live<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Well, I guess with a name like that, I shouldn't be surprised with your cynical attitude! I do think it's borderline crazy that neither team made the playoffs, simply considering their great financial advantages. That said, teams are getting smarter and if the Yankees and Red Sox don't make smart moves, they aren't going to make the playoffs. Making <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Brian McCann</a></strong> shave his goatee? Not smart. Relying on <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?redir" target="_blank">Clay Buchholz</a></b>? Not smart. </div>
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Yes, your TVs will stay on, stop it. The ratings might dip just a tad, but I think MLB will be just fine. New blood is refreshing, so just enjoy it and stop being so cynical. Maybe change your name to Positive Outlook Sam. Just a suggestion.</div>
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<b>World Series, who you got?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~PA, Radio<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Angels and Dodgers in the battle of who can talk about traffic more. I don't really love the Angels, but they offer the best combination of defense, offense and pitching of all the AL playoff teams. I'm going to contradict how I answered Angry Jerk's question and say that the Dodgers' pitching is too great to overcome. While starting pitching may be a bit overrated in the playoffs, outstanding, almost-alien starting pitching is pretty helpful in short series. </div>
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If you want to know which matchup I am rooting for: Washington and Baltimore in a battle for the heart of our Nation's Capitol. I doubt that the country would put the Capitol up for grabs in the World Series, but ratings are pretty important and it's a Congressional election year, so who knows. </div>
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As long as the World Series is geography-friendly, I'm going to be okay with it. Kansas City-St. Louis? Yes. San Francisco-Oakland? Oh, of course! Pittsburgh-Los Angeles? That would be too wacky. Where's the geography story? I'll pass, thank you!</div>
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You know what, if we can just have Kershaw and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg</a></strong> in Game 1 of the NLCS, the entire playoffs will be cool with me. Of course, the Cardinals will probably muck it up with their brand of good playing. Or the rotations will be all wacky because of the previous series. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrija02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jack Morris</a></strong>, where are you?!?</div>
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<b>Who wins?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Vox, Radio<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Concise, very good. I'll oblige concisely: The Dodgers. They are good. The other teams are good too. The Dodgers are the most good. Or, the best, if you must. </div>
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There you have it. I am picking the Dodgers but I want the Nationals. I am fine with anything geography-friendly. I think starting pitching is both overrated and the reason why the Dodgers will win the World Series. I dislike rich punks. I think Brian McCann looks weird without his goatee. Are you questioning why you read this yet?</div>
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I'll be back on Friday with some Twins year-end POWER RANKINGS! See you then; take care!</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-46617984872452421092014-09-30T05:00:00.000-05:002014-09-30T05:00:05.859-05:002014 Awards Mailbag!<div class="MsoNormal">
The MLB playoffs start today. Sort of. There are two Wild Card games today and tomorrow. While these are technically playoff games, I am a traditionalist, so I long for the days when no teams make the playoffs and we all just go home for six months. I hate excitement. I hate having more happy fan bases. I hate fun. I hate baseball. Thus, I hate these Wild Card games. I love hyperbole and I love fake mailbags. Here's a Playoffs/Awards fake mailbag for me:</div>
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<b>I think <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto</a></strong> is the NL <strong>Cy Young</strong> Award winner. Do you think I'm cool?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Cool Guy, Somewhere, USA (probably Cincinnati)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Eh no, I do not think you're cool. Johnny Cueto had a wonderful season. His ERA is elite, he led the NL in strikeouts and innings pitched, he won 20 games and he has a brilliant hair length/waist twist combo that cannot be matched. In just about any season, Cueto would be a runaway winner. </div>
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<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> exists, so no one else gets to win this award. Sure, Kershaw threw about 50 fewer innings than Cueto. However, Kershaw also led the NL in ERA, ERA+ (natch), wins, WHIP, FIP, PIP (great expectations), strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. In addition, he's got an awesome stutter-stop motion/beard combo. Cueto is great-o but Kershaw is Kershawesome. Someone put that on a t-shirt. </div>
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<b>Official K-Slow NL Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>How are we supposed to pick the AL Cy Young Award winner? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Corey Kluber</a></strong>? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Felix Hernandez</a></strong>? They're both great candidates. How am I supposed to live without one of those two? How am I supposed to carry on?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~M. Bolton, Scragglyhair, USA.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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No one is a bigger Felix Hernandez fan than I am. I have his posters, I have his baseball cards, I have his Fathead, I have his face tattooed on my face, I have it all. I want to pick King Felix because I am not a journalist and I am allowed to be biased. But, I am a blogger too, so it's very important that I am right and that I am loud about being right. I have to throw my support to Kluber. </div>
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Hernandez beats Kluber in ERA, but Kluber has more wins, strikeouts, more impressive rate stats and had a BABIP nearly 60 points higher than Hernandez. Trust me, if I could spin things toward Hernandez, I would. I just can't ignore how great Kluber was this year. Somehow, Felix Hernandez had the best season of his Hall of Fame career, and he's going to get edged out by a guy who no one had heard of 12 months ago. Funny how that works. In a movie, they'd fall in love.</div>
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<b>Official K-Slow AL Cy Young - Corey Kluber<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>I think it's lame that players who were already professionals can win Rookie of the Year, so I'm voting for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong>. <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Twins Fan, MN<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Submitting a statement to a mailbag is unconventional, but I respect it. It might be lame, but we have to look at this logically. Is Cuban professional baseball on the level of MLB? No. It's likely more analogous to AAA. If we accept this comparison, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=abreujo02,abreu-007jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a></strong> made the leap from a AAA-equivalent and then murdered baseballs through all of 2014. He batted .317/.383/.581 with 36 home runs and 107 RBI. Only <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Victor Martinez</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> surpassed his 165 wRC+. That's good; Abreu wins. </div>
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Of course, if you want to make a homer case for Danny Santana, I'm not going to get in your way. If you can convince enough writers to get on your side, I'll support you. It's a losing battle, but I'm just sitting on my couch regardless, so what do I care? Santana was a revelation/treasure this year, but it's pretty hard to argue that he was as good as Abreu. </div>
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<b>Official K-Slow AL Rookie of the Year - Jose Abreu<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Have you ever heard of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a></strong>? How many bases did he steal?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~B. Swanson, St. Paul, MN<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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This is in reference to my prediction that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hamilbi02,hamilbi01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Billy Hamilton</a></strong> would literally run away with the NL Rookie of the Year. He did steal a whole mess of bases, but he did it with a completely garbage sub-.300 OBP. I still think he needs to change his name to Bill Hamilton.</div>
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deGrom, who refuses to capitalize the first letter in his last name, came out of nowhere to lead the race for this award. He's got a bit of a mushroom hairstyle, but let's try to look past that. He threw 140.1 innings over 22 starts. He went 9 and 6 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His 3.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio legitimizes his stats and his 2.67 FIP makes him nerd-friendly. deGrom is deWinner. I'M ALL ABOUT SLOGANS!</div>
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<b>Official K-Slow NL Rookie of the Year - Jacob deGrom<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>How deep is your love for Clayton Kershaw? Are you willing to select him as the NL MVP as well?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Dru Hill, Not Sure, Probably USA, maybe China<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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We've hit our two-obscure-song-reference limit, so it's time to stop. My love for Kershaw is very deep. He led the National League in fWAR and he's an outstanding baseball player. I have no problem with a pitcher winning MVP and Kershaw is a perfect example of a pitcher who deserves the award. I'm still going to pick Andrew McCutchen though.</div>
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McCutchen led all NL position players in fWAR and he was just a tad behind Kershaw. McCutchen did miss a few games and his defense continues to see-saw, but he's also having his finest offensive season, leading the National League with a 168 wRC+. McCutchen is the best position player in the National League and he had the best season in the National League. Seems pretty cut-and-dry to me. BACK TO BACK, BACK TO BACK, BACK TO BACK... </div>
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<b>Official K-Slow NL MVP - Andrew McCutchen<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>How does Mike Trout get robbed this year?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>~Trouts, Water<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Seems unlikely that all the trout in the world have banded together to support a guy with the last name "Trout." Also, Trout of all creatures should know that the plural form of Trout is Trout, not Trouts. Finally, Trout was hardly robbed in 2012 and 2013, although he was very deserving both years.</div>
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This season appears to finally be Trout's MVP season. Like, for real this time. Trout led all position players in rWAR and fWAR. He finally led his team to the playoffs (my tongue is stuck) and he finally drove in 100 runs (so stuck). The Angels are the best team in baseball. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. Mike Trout plays for the Angels. This one is kind of hard to mess up. </div>
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<b>Official K-Slow AL MVP - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Wait! I messed up. </div>
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<b>The Real Official K-Slow AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Hold on.</div>
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<b>The Actual Real Official K-Slow AL MVP - Miguel Trout<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Close enough. I'll be back with fake questions about the playoffs tomorrow. </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-74576484647918019032014-09-29T05:00:00.000-05:002014-09-29T05:00:09.111-05:002014 Minnesota Twins Predictions Revisited<div class="MsoNormal">
In the immortal words of Michael Jordan, "I'm back." Consider this the Wizards portion of my blogging career. It's all been the Wizards portion, so it should be easy to adjust.<br />
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Before the season started, I made 11 <b><i><s><u><span style="color: grey; mso-color-alt: white; text-effect: engrave;">BOLD</span></u></s></i></b> predictions. I had planned to make those predictions after the season, but the jagwagons who run the blogging cabal said that I had to make predictions before things actually happen. This will adversely affect my accuracy, but apparently that wasn't important. At this moment, I would like to take a fond look back at my original 11 predictions. </div>
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If you didn't read these predictions back in March, well...what's wrong with you? I worked hard on those predictions. I didn't sleep for days. I ate nothing but Lemonheads and BBQ sunflower seeds. That's my normal diet, but the sleeping part really sucked. <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/03/2014-minnesota-twins-predictions.html" target="_blank">Here's the post if you missed it</a></b>, but I expect some level of sympathy as you read. Support local arts in the future, you monster.</div>
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<b>Prediction #1 - <strong>Sam Deduno</strong> will be voted King of Minnesota<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Most people grow out of their sarcasm faze after they leave high school. Some people just can't help themselves. Obviously, Minnesota does not have a King. Sam Deduno is not royalty. I was all annoyed by his disproportionately popular status and I took to my blog to knock him down a peg. Now he's gone. I wrote a song for him almost twenty years ago to apologize. I stole most of the lyrics, didn't sing it, and I didn't write it either. <b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IRfM6VyNhs" target="_blank">Take a listen</a></b>. </div>
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<b>Prediction #2 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kevin Correia</a></strong> will be traded by the end of the season<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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*swish sound* </div>
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That was a lay-up, but one of those lay-ups that is more of a finger roll because you have too much time on the fast break and you get in your own head and forget that the backboard exists. One of those. We all knew Correia would be traded. Had he been just a complete disaster, he might have been simply released, but that was unlikely because he had been serviceable for so many years. Now, he might get a ring with the Dodgers. A promise ring. </div>
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<b>Prediction #3 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rosari001edd&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Eddie Rosario</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maytr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong> will not make their MLB</b> <b>debuts<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I choose to see this prediction as half-correct instead of half-incorrect. I am an optimist. Although, I am concerned that this half-correct prediction could ruin my karma and leave me prone to a bee attack. Rosario was a bit of a lay-up. The easy kind, backboard and whatnot. May was a lot better at AAA than I was expecting and some of the guys who I thought could be ahead of him on the depth chart were unimpressive. I'm glad I was wrong about May, even if his first season with the Twins did not go well.</div>
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<b>Prediction #4 - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=buxton000byr" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong> will make their MLB debuts<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I choose to see this prediction as half-weaksauce. Santana was outstanding (just wait for my year-end POWER RANKINGS later this week). Meyer was great at AAA but he's really tall so the Twins chose to keep him out of the clubhouse. At least, that's how I perceive it. And it's best not to talk about Buxton because my keyboard is not tears-resistant.<br />
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Also, in the original piece, I actually predicted that Bryon Buxton would make his MLB debut in 2014 which would have been super impressive because he is not a baseball player.</div>
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<b>Prediction #5 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floripe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pedro Florimon</a></strong> out, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Eduardo Escobar</a></strong> in<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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NAILED IT! OH GOD I NAILED IT! ADMIT IT, I NAILED IT! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! WHOOOO! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! </div>
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Please ignore the second part where I compared Escobar to Yokozuna and thought he would then lose his job shortly thereafter. </div>
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I NAILED IT!</div>
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<b>Prediction #6 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pintojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Josmil Pinto</a></strong> will replace <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukku01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kurt Suzuki</a></strong> as the full-time catcher by June<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Can a prediction be superwrong? Ron Gardenhire couldn't handle Josmil Pinto's machismo and toothpick flicking, so he got relegated to a bench role. In addition, Kurt Suzuki decided to have a season where he actually hit baseballs for the first time since Nixon was still kicking around. I'm not sure if that's accurate, but I do know that Pinto has taken up permanent residence in Gardy's doghouse, Suzuki's luster is going to wear off and the 2016 Twins will likely feature Henry Blanco<b> </b>as the starting catcher. </div>
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I'm not bitter, I just want everyone involved in the decision to hold down Pinto to feel an intense burn when Pinto has 55 home runs for the A's in 2017. Of course, I predict that MLB will replace baseballs with superballs in 2016, so I'm not sure if 55 home runs will be a lot or not. Intense burns regardless.</div>
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<b>Prediction #7 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong> will be better than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ricky Nolasco</a></strong> <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm so proud of this one, I got a vanity license plate. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx2qIoi_tJlgYx0YH7DY5ngqy3RffaCXSZTfU8hyphenhyphenpTntBDgXKpg315kN_3Dp7tySUDZPQeVEfkcn-YLrBEOtVOReX2q-KJRFp3hI4BjZEuZIo1YFdzhzzrPAe1AXJo0_JFeEyt4NTgkIKy/s1600/LP-2048+Minnesota+State+Background+License+Plates+-+Vikings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx2qIoi_tJlgYx0YH7DY5ngqy3RffaCXSZTfU8hyphenhyphenpTntBDgXKpg315kN_3Dp7tySUDZPQeVEfkcn-YLrBEOtVOReX2q-KJRFp3hI4BjZEuZIo1YFdzhzzrPAe1AXJo0_JFeEyt4NTgkIKy/s1600/LP-2048+Minnesota+State+Background+License+Plates+-+Vikings.jpg" height="160" width="320" /></a></div>
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It's worth the many tickets. </div>
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<b>Prediction #8 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong> will finish the season with 55+ extra-base hits<o:p></o:p></b><br />
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My most arbitrary prediction, I honestly cannot remember where I came up with the number 55. I thought 20-25 home runs (right) and 30-35 doubles (wrong). I didn't think he'd spend as much time with Rochester as he did and it took him a long time to get going at the plate. Even so, his 36 extra-base hits in 102 games would translate to just about 55 extra-base hits given a full season. I wasn't THAT far off when you start doing annoying math. </div>
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Arcia's low batting average overshadows some improvements that I saw from him this season. He walked more, he hit for more power, and he slugged almost .550 in August and September. I think he's a cornerstone player, even if his defense can best be described as "whaaaaaa?"</div>
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<b>Prediction #9 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> will win his 4th batting title<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Judging my Twitter, I am going to say this did not happen. I have also learned from Twitter that Joe Mauer might be overpaid, he might be in the decline, he might be soft and he might be pure evil. I can't confirm any of this in 140 characters. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Prediction #10 - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colabch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chris Colabello</a></strong> will hit more home runs for the Twins than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Willingham 12 - Colabello 6. It was closer than it should have been. Willingham did get traded, as I predicted. He did struggle to hit home runs, as I predicted. Colabello did force his way to the Majors, as I predicted. The rest is fuzzy and I'm pretty sure Colabello was abducted by aliens who needed a Spanish translator for all their aliens who actually did something valuable for their alien baseball team. </div>
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<b>Prediction #11 - The Twins will win at least 75 games<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br />
The "at least" was probably overkill. Now, if the season ended today, the Twins would win 70 games. But, there's still...wait...what?...oh. The season's over. I did not notice that. That's on me. </div>
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<br />
The Twins fell short of 75 wins and that is sad. Their starting pitching was somewhere between "dreadful" and "not cool" and their defense was funny, but not funny "ha-ha." Their offense was actually in the top-half in the AL and their Pythagorean record was closer to 74-75 wins. All I really care about is what could have happened, not what did happen, so this confirms my prediction.</div>
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Predictions, huh? Yeah, not great. I tried my best though. I predict that I will make more predictions before the 2015 season. I'm here for the long haul. I'm going to write so much Twins nonsense this offseason, your head is going to spin. Other heads will roll. Some heads will just maintain a healthy tilt. </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-11381585722668456542014-09-08T08:15:00.002-05:002014-09-08T08:15:35.120-05:00I'm Still Around!Good morning everyone! I apologize for the lack of activity on this blog over the last month. I really miss sharing my thoughts on the Twins and other related subjects. I appreciate those of you who have reached out to check in on me. Everything is great and I appreciate your concern! There have been a series of events that have kept me from my computer and kept me from watching Twins baseball. <br />
<br />
First, my wife and I sold our house. We sold it quickly too. So quickly that we don't have a new place just yet. We're staying with very understanding and accommodating family, so we're in good shape. Second, my school started back up and we've been extremely busy. Most of the nights I used to devote to writing are being devoted to my school. I'm happy to do that, but it really gets in the way of a good <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargake01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kennys Vargas</a></strong> KWL chart. I've been begging my school to add Vargas Studies to our curriculum, but I keep getting shot down. Third, it's wedding season and we're in the thick of it. I swear every person I've ever met is getting married between 8/2014 and 9/2014. It's wild. <br />
<br />
These events are all positive, but when they compounded, the time to absorb Twins baseball enough to post a cogent thought and a silly photoshop is simply not there. Plus, I haven't watched a lot of games and it would be disingenuous to write about something that I haven't seen. Now, if you want my analysis of how awful wedding music is or how to Tetris-ly fill a storage locker with everything you own, please reach out. <br />
<br />
I am hopeful that things will slow down in the next couple of weeks and I can get you some hardcore analysis. I have plans to write about the ten best performances in the Twins organization in 2014. I have plans to analyze the 40-man roster and look at free agent targets. I have plans to take <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong>'s hair and photoshop it onto important historical figures. These are the things I want to share with you and I want to share them very soon. <br />
<br />
I do have some very quick Twins thoughts that I just can't keep inside me any longer. Because I am still short on time, these thoughts will be only half-baked, slightly less baked than my typical 60%-baked thoughts. <br />
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<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Eduardo Escobar</a></strong> will reach 400 at-bats, likely in his next game. When I invented the Eddie 400, it was all about giving an opportunity to a younger player with more potential. I had no idea he would seize his opportunity so greatly. In fact, when I do write about the ten best performances in the Twins' organization, Escobar will likely be one of the ten. Plus, that smile. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJxP1lIk7HmSbZS2VWu7lB3LekZj3gnIvIMWe-J3pI3lGtVv_HZiPPHDArD0aJIYRSYsmDo-6raMvhKcbD4-u8GJfW0NDkEq7A0QBHnHVwp0gRQBOuEePZksS35kODUOh1_8YLLdxsFP16/s1600/EddieHappy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJxP1lIk7HmSbZS2VWu7lB3LekZj3gnIvIMWe-J3pI3lGtVv_HZiPPHDArD0aJIYRSYsmDo-6raMvhKcbD4-u8GJfW0NDkEq7A0QBHnHVwp0gRQBOuEePZksS35kODUOh1_8YLLdxsFP16/s1600/EddieHappy.jpg" height="176" width="320" /></a></div>
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<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aaron Hicks</a></strong> is back, which pleases me greatly. He's finally getting some ground ball luck too. Just watching this weekend, I saw at least two ground balls that actually found holes instead of gloves. While Hicks hasn't consistently hit the ball hard as a Twin, his .266 career BABIP is shockingly low for someone with his speed and power-potential. He has been quite horrible as a Twin, but I still think he can be a valuable piece going forward. His current .347 OBP would be in the top 50 in the Majors if he qualified. Hey, he has a skill!<br />
<br />
These are too baked, it's time to move to some true quick-hits!<br />
<ul>
<li>Kennys Vargas is a monster who does monstrous things to baseballs. No analysis here, he's just really fun to watch. </li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pintojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Josmil Pinto</a></strong> is back in Minnesota, so I can finally stop crying. </li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></strong> looks tired. Not like he didn't sleep well but like he's thrown a lot of innings. He's already past his total from last season and he's improved substantially in year two. I think he could really break out next season.</li>
<li>Oswaldo Arica continues to be my favorite player despite a complete lack of any sort of discipline. Who am I kidding? That's why he's my favorite player!</li>
<li>Uh, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong> was a pretty good signing. </li>
<li>Uh, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ricky Nolasco</a></strong> was a pretty unfortunate signing. I think he's much better next year though. Of course, that's a bit akin to saying that Fall will be colder than Summer. </li>
</ul>
Well, that's all I've got. A month away and I can't muster up more than this? I'm excited to get back to regular posts. Hopefully, I can keep battling and grind out some good posts. Have a good day, everyone!Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-8452713605806672702014-08-15T08:54:00.003-05:002014-08-15T08:54:58.748-05:00My Talk to Contact AppearanceGood morning everyone! My apologies for not posting this week. Of course, the Twins played the Astros this week, so does that really count as baseball? I did appear on the Talk to Contact podcast last evening. It was fun and the hosts were very nice. That's how a six-year-old would describe it, sure, but it's true.<br />
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You should really be listening to this podcast and not just this episode because I'm on it and you want to hear what I sound like (it's unpleasant, spoiler). This podcast combines great Twins talk with a really fun, light atmosphere. All of the hosts are great, super nice people and they know their Twins baseball. If you haven't checked it out, listen to this episode and you'll be hooked. <br />
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<b><a href="http://talk2contact.podomatic.com/entry/2014-08-14T18_38_20-07_00" target="_blank">Here's the link to episode 95.</a></b><br />
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Once you're hooked, <b><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/talk-to-contact/id556784825" target="_blank">subscribe on iTunes</a></b> and leave them a five-star review. That's the best way to get the word out. <br />
<br />
In my segment, we talked for almost ten minutes about various topics like putting players' heads on bird bodies, how to name a podcast/blog and why I think <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?redir" target="_blank">Eduardo Escobar</a></b> should retire when he hits 399 plate appearances. I also pledged to join him in retirement if he goes down that path. We'll see how it all plays out. <br />
<br />
Here are some very abbreviated Twins thoughts, just to prove I'm still paying attention:<br />
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> hit a home run.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong> hit some home runs.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargake01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kennys Vargas</a></strong> hit a home run.</li>
</ul>
If you are curious about the bird thing, you can check out my <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/p/funny-stuff.html" target="_blank">"Funny" Stuff archive here</a></b>. There's all kinds of silly stuff in there, some of which might be amusing for a few seconds. I hope to be back with new stuff next week. If not, I'll eat an entire pizza to make it up to you. Have a great weekend, everyone!Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-71013396163100215462014-08-11T05:00:00.000-05:002014-08-11T05:00:04.236-05:00Monday Morning Madness: August 11, 2014<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Weekend Recap</b></div>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I'm starting to think the Twins aren't as good as the A's.<br />
— Brad Swanson (@bridman77) <a href="https://twitter.com/bridman77/statuses/497946161807130624">August 9, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Well said, me.<br />
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<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maytr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm not going to dwell on May's debut. He was wild; he was nervous. It wouldn't shock me if we just witnessed one of May's only truly disastrous starts of his career. One start doesn't mean much to me. I still think that May can be a good 3rd/4th starter on a good team. I like his durability and the fact that his stuff can play better than a 3/4. I like that he seems to have an affable personality, likely perfect for shrugging off a rocky debut. </div>
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<br />
It would have been awesome if May had come out and fired off eight shutout innings with a bunch of strikeouts and no walks. Maybe he's saving that performance for Minnesota. Yeah, that's what he's doing. He's got flair! I just hope the Twins don't overreact to one bad start and send him away. I don't think that's likely, so I'm not even going to address it further. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Trevor Plouffe</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm not sure when this happened, but I've become a pretty big Trevor Plouffe fan. I've been impressed with him this season. His batting average is still nothing special, but he's improved his walk rate enough to post a respectable OBP. In fact, his .322 OBP is just slightly higher than the AL average (.319). His SLG is better than the AL average, thanks to 31 doubles. He only has 8 home runs, but his HR/FB% is down about five percentage points from his career rate. </div>
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<br />
Most importantly, he's become an adequate defender at third. He doesn't have a ton of range, but he makes routine plays. His arm is no longer a danger to the fans behind first, which is great because his arm has always been very strong, just not very accurate. </div>
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<br />
I tweeted earlier this week that Plouffe would be on pace for about a 3.5 rWAR season. He did miss some games, so he won't get there. Only 7 third basemen reached 3.5 rWAR or better in 2013. Most likely, Plouffe won't be the Twins' third baseman at this time next season, but he's rounded into a pretty nice player. My question to you - is Trevor Plouffe, based on his first-round pedigree, a disappointment? I'm curious what everyone thinks. I'll weigh in later. I need a sandwich.</div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Youth Movement<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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While May's debut did not go well, it does seem to signify that the Twins are furthering their "youth movement." <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargake01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kennys Vargas</a></strong> made his debut just a couple weeks back. Ryan Pressley is back on the roster. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong> is basically the starting center fielder. The Twins have even taken looks at <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darnelo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Logan Darnell</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/polanjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Jorge Polanco</a></strong>. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Eduardo Escobar</a></strong> has proved that he's an MLB player in some capacity. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong> has awesome hair. Every player in this paragraph is either 25 or younger. </div>
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<br />
As I wrote last week, I want this movement to continue. I hope to see <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tonkimi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Michael Tonkin</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pintojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Josmil Pinto</a></strong> and (gasp) <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Aaron Hicks</a></strong> before the season ends. If the Twins are truly committed to seeing what they have in their young, on-the-cusp players, then those four should be on the MLB team before too many games pass by. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Former Twin Update - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kevin Correia</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Well, well, well, the Twins found a taker for Mr. Correia. The Dodgers now employ two of the more maligned former Twins of the past decade in Correia and Drew Butera. I bid Correia a very fond adieu. I was extremely critical of his signing, but I have been very satisfied with his performance over the last two seasons. I could try to explain my feelings with my words, but why do that when someone else nailed it:</div>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Correia did exactly what the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MNTwins?src=hash">#MNTwins</a> signed him to do. Be a reliable 5th starter. Not his fault there weren't 4 better guys in rotation<br />
— Tyler Trimble (@TrimbleTJ) <a href="https://twitter.com/TrimbleTJ/statuses/498464855678918657">August 10, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Exactly. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Weekly Josmil Pinto Update<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm adding this section and including it every Monday until Pinto is recalled. Hopefully, there aren't many updates. </div>
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<br />
Pinto was 0-4 on Sunday, completely justifying this section. However, if you throw out that game, he had hit .357/.444/.643 in five games this week. He had four doubles. He had a sacrifice fly. That kind of selfless play goes a long way with coaches and managers. </div>
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<br />
I know, there's nowhere to put Pinto right now. He isn't polished enough to catch and Kennys Vargas is about to become the full-time DH with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> (remember that guy) coming back this week. I don't care. Find a way. Listen to A Tribe Called Quest (or Amy Grant) for inspiration. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Fun Stat - Doubles<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Eduardo Escobar is tied with Jose Abreu for 10th in the AL with 29 doubles. It seems like a good time to remind everyone that he was behind Pedro Florimon on the depth chart when the season started. Pedro Florimon was batting .108/.194/.154 when the Twins finally switched to Escobar on May 7. </div>
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<br />
Just a reminder -<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_xxFgcLisWNPigB_pn0WGdJ52SJNlFA497tMOodwxqCQMSQ3lyF1XUu5T_DeGN49JZ6tBEU2oCC1bEZjYDi8p2u7UpPcwm_8JW37_MO3kcKfim8RQg4IYrELsQXYAF-0pFBXYmW_cJ-y/s1600/Eddie400.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_xxFgcLisWNPigB_pn0WGdJ52SJNlFA497tMOodwxqCQMSQ3lyF1XUu5T_DeGN49JZ6tBEU2oCC1bEZjYDi8p2u7UpPcwm_8JW37_MO3kcKfim8RQg4IYrELsQXYAF-0pFBXYmW_cJ-y/s1600/Eddie400.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
Some of us were ahead of the curve. Please play <b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IA3ZvCkRkQ" target="_blank">this song</a></b> while you think about that. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b> <b>Let's Get Excited About a Prospect - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=murphy000max&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Max Murphy</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Two Minor League sections? The MLB club isn't too great, I think it's justified. Murphy was so good at Appalachian League Baseball that he was promoted to Cedar Rapids a couple weeks back. He was batting .298/.365/.489 for the Kernels going into Sunday's game. His plate discipline isn't great, as he has 18 strikeouts with just one walk. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Wait, how can his OBP be so much higher than his batting average with just one walk? He's been hit by four pitches in 52 plate appearances. He was hit six times in the Appy League. He's been great at getting hit, which might be a replicable skill, right? Does this guy just have one of those faces? If so, he should probably roll with it. If he can add 40 points to his OBP by being "hit-able," then he could be set. <b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b> <b>Plugging My Way<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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You know that feeling when you're really proud of something and then it takes you 15 seconds to find something better? On Friday, <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/08/twins-to-select-5th-hot-dog-after.html" target="_blank">I wrote about the Twins selecting their 5th hot dog</a></b>. I thought it was pretty clever. Then, I went to Twinkie Town later that morning and read <b><a href="http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/8/8/5980965/guest-column-terry-ryan-trevor-may-alex-meyer-jade-idol-quest" target="_blank">this piece by RandBall's Stu</a></b> and I realized that I am but a tadpole to his giant, agile frog. Read them both, but I'm going to be honest, I enjoyed the Jade Idol piece more. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Parting Thoughts<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The Twins were leading in the 9th inning against the Padres on Wednesday. I had a tweet fired up because that win would have put the Twins on a 75-win pace. Of course, they didn't win that game, then they lost three of four in Oakland.<br />
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Now, they're on a 72-win pace. That's still better than the last three seasons, but not the big improvement I was expecting. Plus, the Twins have been known to coast through September. It's looking like another sub-70-win season. Hopefully, it's the last one. Have a great week, everyone!</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-87755101633091411492014-08-08T05:00:00.000-05:002014-08-08T05:00:03.088-05:00Twins to select 5th Hot Dog after Friday's Game<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIxMEHzGkDtkjXUhPQWW1NcvOU5CMPe7KJ3f-L9acTJIgVyMOMlB5J5AAiPj0YMa4fCfVR5c0OKYuHqnG5S_27C4ZSdT8tug-qJAsvh421Ja0hFCeJvVYOv7iWKjnyNn4gsMx4X70l4PZ4/s1600/hotdogmauer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIxMEHzGkDtkjXUhPQWW1NcvOU5CMPe7KJ3f-L9acTJIgVyMOMlB5J5AAiPj0YMa4fCfVR5c0OKYuHqnG5S_27C4ZSdT8tug-qJAsvh421Ja0hFCeJvVYOv7iWKjnyNn4gsMx4X70l4PZ4/s1600/hotdogmauer.jpg" height="200" width="110" /></a>Looking to bolster a somewhat depleted and disappointing hot dog rotation, the Minnesota Twins will add a fifth hot dog to their hot dog starting rotation. In order to make the best possible decision, the Twins will wait until after Friday night's game. While the new hot dog will not debut in front of the home crowd until after the current road trip, many fans are paying close attention to which hot dog will be selected.</div>
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Schweigert, the Twins' hot dog vendor, currently provides four hot dog options: The Dugout Dog, The Dinger Dog, the Twins Big Dog and the Original Twins Dog. In selecting a fifth hot dog, the Twins will need to decide between the Minnesota Dog and the Kelsobasa hot dog, a play on this hot dog's Washington roots and the popular kielbasa sausage. </div>
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The Minnesota Dog is a hot dog very similar to the Original Twins Dog and a hot dog that many Twins fans are used to because of how similar it is to their traditional hot dogs. The Kelsobasa hot dog is considered to be the more exciting and talented option, although it is new and young and that scares some members of the front office and coaching staff. Count <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gardero01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Ron Gardenhire</a></strong> among those leery of the Kelsobasa hot dog:</div>
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"For me, I want a hot dog that I can rely on. I don't need bells and whistles. I need a dog that will play hard in my stomach without leaving a bad aftertaste. If I'm going to be honest, the Minnesota Dog sounds like an attractive option. It reminds me of the Twins Dog and I like that familiarity. I've never had a Kelsobasa and that makes me nervous."</div>
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Fans appear to be divided. Some fans prefer the more familiar Minnesota dog, much like Gardenhire. Others have heard about the Kelsobasa Dog from various websites and news sources and are intrigued by the hot dog's upside. Many feel this Kelsobasa hot dog could be a mainstay at Target Field while the Minnesota Dog is not different enough to be a fixture in the hot dog rotation. Gerald Reid of Andover is one of those fans:</div>
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"If the Twins add another freaking pitch-to-contact hot dog like the Minnesota Dog, I'll be beyond upset. I'm ready for a more exciting hot dog. We've basically been eating Minnesota Dogs since the 90s and I'm sick of it!" </div>
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When pressed to explain how a hot dog can pitch-to-contact, Reid repeatedly apologized for the mixed metaphor and ran off crying.</div>
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It is possible that the Twins will add the Minnesota Dog and then replace another similar, but more established hot dog with the Kelsobasa Dog down the line. However, the Twins have been slow to adapt to the concession-related evolution in Major League Baseball. Some fans are worried that the Twins will not act even though the time is right and even though they've said all the right things about trying to add more zip to their hot dog selection. Andrew Mathis of New Hope has that very concern:</div>
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"My biggest worry is that the Kelsobasa Dog will be at Target Field for a few weeks, not perform to a high standard that has been unreasonably set and then disappear for a long time. The Twins are prone to going back to the safe option. If that happens, we could be eating Minnesota and Twins dogs for a really long time." </div>
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An anonymous member of the Twins' front office explained that the choice is ultimately not all that important. The casual fan is likely not very aware of either option and will simply listen to what Dick Bremer thinks of the new hot dog. </div>
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Regardless of their choice, the new hot dog will arrive from Schweigert's little-known Rochester distribution center prior to Saturday's game, even though the Twins are currently in Oakland. It is logical to assume that the new hot dog will wear the same wrapper as it wore while with Rochester.</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-18829597398995735152014-08-06T05:00:00.000-05:002014-08-06T05:00:05.846-05:005 more moves I'd make to improve the Minnesota Twins<div class="MsoNormal">
A couple months ago, <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/05/5-moves-id-make-to-improve-minnesota.html" target="_blank">I proposed a few moves</a></b> that I thought the Twins should make to improve their team. Of those five moves, the Twins completed 1.5. It might be fun to try to top that 30% success rate in August. I have five more moves that I feel would improve the Twins or at least create a better fit for a franchise that appears to still be rebuilding. These aren't all moves that need to be made immediately, but should be considered as soon as they become reasonable and/or possible.<br />
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You'll notice a trend with my suggestions. The Twins have work to do to make these moves. That's kind of the job of the Front Office though. I'm just a guy with Microsoft Word and access to the internet.</div>
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<b>Move #1 - Find someone willing to take <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kevin Correia</a></strong> for anything and promote <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=may---001tre&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b><br />
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This has kind of gone on long enough. May isn't perfect and I don't think he projects to be anything more than a 4th starter (a valuable one though, <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-value-of-trevor-may-as-4th-starter.html" target="_blank">read this</a></b>). However, he's done just about everything he can do at AAA. Has he been inconsistent at times? Sure. Is he a young pitcher? Yes. There, inconsistency explained. <br />
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Correia's two-year contract worked about as well as it possibly could have. He's been serviceable for 53 starts and he's performed better than just about anyone expected. He's also a free agent in about two months and very unlikely to return. If the Twins can get a player who can fill a role in the Minors, they should take that player, call up May and start thinking about the future. </div>
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<b>Move #2 - Find someone willing to take </b><strong style="font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></strong><b> for anything and install </b><b>Chris Parmelee</b><b> and </b><strong style="font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong><b> into the everyday lineup until the end of the season<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Along those same lines, Josh Willingham needs to go. I like Willingham. He was excellent in 2012. He...he seemed like a nice guy from 2013-2014. Of course, he's also hit .212/.348/.383 while being that nice guy. His trade market has evaporated and we can always argue later about whether or not he should have been traded after his big 2012 season. The fact is, Willingham is not part of the future and he's clogging up the lineup/outfield. He might net the Twins a prospect in return, but he might just be worth a million bucks or something. </div>
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Oswaldo Arcia is definitely part of the future and he's starting to break out of his slump as well. He needs to be cleared to start every day. I also think that he's a better left fielder than right fielder, despite his arm being better suited for right. If I'm right, moving Willingham opens left for Arcia and right field for Parmelee. </div>
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I'm not a huge Parmelee fan, but I think just about everyone would be interested to see what he could do with two months of consistent at-bats. I'm not sure he's ever gotten that kind of playing time over the course of the last three seasons. Even if he flops, at least then the Twins know that they cannot rely on him as a stop-gap solution or bench option. These are the kinds of things a team can figure out during a lost season. </div>
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<b>Move #3 - Find someone willing to take Jared Burton and promote </b><strong style="font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong><b> to the bullpen<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Jared Burton, meet Kevin Correia and Josh Willingham. It's the same situation as described before, so I won't go into it in too much detail. Jared, you were good for a year, you're nice, we like you, but it's time. There. That conversation gets easier each time you have it. </div>
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Adding Meyer to the bullpen might seem controversial, but there are very practical reasons why it makes sense. First, Meyer has already exceeded his workload total from last year by about 40 innings. He's also approaching his Minor League-high that he set in 2012. </div>
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Second, he's got great stuff and would likely thrive in the bullpen. Imagine seeing a 6'9" warrior throwing 100 MPH fastballs at your dome. He'd be a lot of fun to watch, no doubt. It's a temporary move, so drop your pitchfork. Next season, he'd be in the Twins' rotation. </div>
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Speaking of the Twins rotation, and third, the Twins rotation is pretty full. With May being added (see above), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong>, three spots are taken. Tommy Milone might be joining them at some point too. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinoyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Yohan Pino</a></strong> has done little to lose his spot, but <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Ricky Nolasco</a></strong> is coming back soon. If Nolasco replaces Pino, there's nowhere to put Meyer. If Nolasco has a setback, Pino has likely earned the right to keep his job, at least for now. </div>
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Putting Meyer in the bullpen is a temporary move to get him some MLB experience while limiting his innings and unleashing his talent for the fans. It's pretty win-win-win if you ask me. Plus, lots of guys get their start in the Majors out of position. For example...</div>
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<b>Move #4 - Find more starts for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong> at short<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Of course, there does come a time when you have to start playing that player at their natural, and therefore best position. Danny Santana has been fantastic this season. He's more than exceeded his expectations and has done so while filling in at a position that he had played just 25 times in the Minors. That said, he's a shortstop and shortstop is the most important position on the diamond. If the Twins view Santana as part of the future, it should be at short. </div>
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Everyone knows that I live and breathe the Eddie 400, but everyone needs a day off from time to time. Santana is versatile, but <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Eduardo Escobar</a></strong> is more versatile (so long as he stays in the infield). Escobar should coast to 400 plate appearances, and could use an occasional day off himself. </div>
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With Escobar able to play short about half of the remaining games and fill in at second and third and rest in the others, Santana would be left with about 20-25 games at short. He was still developing at that position, so those extra games could be very important. It would be silly to harm Santana's development at short just because the Twins' roster is completely devoid of a good center field option (yes, including <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schafjo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Jordan Schafer</a></strong>). They'll just have to make it work, but not at Santana's expense. </div>
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<b>Move #5 - Find a way to get <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pintojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Josmil Pinto</a></strong> onto the MLB roster<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm not offering any advice on this one. I'm not the one who sent him to AAA because he was slumping while playing irregularly. I'm not the one who values his defense more than his offense. I'm not the one who jumped <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargake01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kennys Vargas</a></strong> past AAA, effectively clogging the DH spot when <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> returns. I'm not the one who extended a catcher having a career-year to block Pinto's chances at starting for 2015 and possibly 2016. </div>
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All I know is that Pinto is still showing good plate discipline, power and promise with Rochester and I still firmly believe that he is one of the Twins' four or five best hitters right now. Pinto will be 26 next season and he owns a 125 OPS+ in 241 MLB plate appearances. He had a tough May and was injured in July, but he's healthy now and ready to come crush some baseballs. As I pointed out many times before, this is a lost season. It's time to see what all the kids can do. </div>
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For the record, I like Kennys Vargas and I'm glad he's on the roster, so let's not focus on that one part, please.<br />
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What do you think of my roster management? Is it too much veteran-slashing? Too much rookie-lusting? If nothing else, it would be more exciting to watch a team with May, Meyer and Pinto than Correia, Burton and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fryerer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Eric Fryer</a></strong>. Nothing against those guys, I'm sure they are very nice.<br />
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What moves would you make? Would you hire me as your GM? Will you hire me as your GM? Sound off in the comments or send me a slideshow! </div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-71776034937030755922014-08-04T05:00:00.000-05:002014-08-04T05:00:02.229-05:00Monday Morning Madness: August 4, 2014<div class="MsoNormal"><b>Weekend Recap<o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">I managed to catch the entire series this weekend, but I also had a pretty nasty fever so I'm not really sure what I did and did not see. I've nearly recovered, but this is still going to be a bit on the short side because I'm all out of cool washcloths. I'm pretty sure I saw a beatdown on Sunday, but that just doesn't seem right. I know the Twins took two of three in Chicago and that's always fun.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">My friend sent me a text last week and he was wondering when the last time the Twins had a guy come up from the Minors and completely exceed expectations. I couldn't come up with anyone off the top of my head, but Santana is the obvious answer. He's been outstanding at the plate and he's played a pretty competent center despite being an infielder and inspiring this movie poster:</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIrwGIHnAaLkgpQX2wgF8SHIfzdS3NPlzYjgI6jP4chf2FpVNezVSZ2xDbwgEO6CqvfN4_IS4W6t91RbuRuQ1CjqB0kVK51n5mCfL6pZruUGn9u3LHDgitvfa5dtnIYCRSwohyphenhyphenXMn-GnLW/s1600/infieldersintheoutfield.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIrwGIHnAaLkgpQX2wgF8SHIfzdS3NPlzYjgI6jP4chf2FpVNezVSZ2xDbwgEO6CqvfN4_IS4W6t91RbuRuQ1CjqB0kVK51n5mCfL6pZruUGn9u3LHDgitvfa5dtnIYCRSwohyphenhyphenXMn-GnLW/s1600/infieldersintheoutfield.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Over the weekend, Santana had a dynamite series. He went 0-5 on Friday, but I can't blame him because that giant swamp monster in the outfield was really creating havoc for everyone. Then, from Saturday to Sunday, he went gonzo. He went 7-10 with a double, triple, home run, two walks, two stolen bases, five RBI and five runs scored. Santana is an exciting player with game-changing speed. I'm not sure he should be kept in center, but he might just be outstanding regardless of where he plays.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Santana's counterpart in center is a pretty exciting player himself. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=eatonad01,eatonad02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Adam Eaton</a></strong> was all over the place this weekend. He's a pest, but I respect him. Although, on Saturday, he singled, then ran up a rainbow and punched a hornless unicorn and got thrown out at second. I cannot condone those baseball and non-baseball actions. Just reckless.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Josh Willingham wasn't terrible this weekend, although he did go 1-7 during Sunday's hit parade. I don't remember his dragon wings from before, but I'm guessing they help him in the field? The Twins weren't able to trade Willingham before the deadline and might not be able to move him before the end of August. If that happens, I think the Twins need to play Willingham sparingly in September. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">I appreciate Willingham's contributions to the Twins, but by September, he'll be in the final month of his contract and extremely unlikely to return. Even if he starts breathing fire, I don't think he changes the Twins' fortunes in 2014, so it makes way more sense to get more at-bats for players who will be in Minnesota in 2015 and beyond. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Gibson has taken over as the Twins' best starter, as his ERA is lower than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong>' and that's the only stat I can look up without getting up. Gibson was good on Sunday and six strikeouts in seven innings is a great recipe for Gibson success. That one pitch he threw that sunk under the plate and then popped back up into <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fryerer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Eric Fryer</a></strong>'s glove was particularly nasty. I'm not sure if it was completely legal, but it was something to see. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>Former Twin Update - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fuldsa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Sam Fuld</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">The Twins were quiet at the trade deadline, disappointing Brad Swanson and likely some other people. I hoped they would make more moves so that I could complain about them on Twitter, but it didn't work out that way. The Twins were able to parlay an early-season waiver claim into a 27-year-old starter with some MLB success. While I am not a huge <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/milonto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Tommy Milone</a></strong> fan, even I have to admit that this was a fantastic trade. Fuld appears to be the World Series favorite's starting center fielder, thus nullifying the second part of the first part of this sentence. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>Baseball Card from the past?<o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8uXwee43UiS6gDKox182mSZjitz4xEA0MvDev-iVQb75G_TBaD_Ev8kDU3fP1QVZTruTvHrW2TFB_xAUUePs7UG-JHZX6geNen2oS-CyqibgVxCc70xch201hU_aG2m_RvEqceV2uGjGf/s1600/willthethrill.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8uXwee43UiS6gDKox182mSZjitz4xEA0MvDev-iVQb75G_TBaD_Ev8kDU3fP1QVZTruTvHrW2TFB_xAUUePs7UG-JHZX6geNen2oS-CyqibgVxCc70xch201hU_aG2m_RvEqceV2uGjGf/s1600/willthethrill.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">I really don't remember <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clarkwi02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Will Clark</a></strong>'s face being quite so melty, but that's what I see on my screen. In the days before photoshop, you really saw the players' facial imperfections, huh? It seems completely irresponsible and insensitive of Topps to match the background to his face. Just classless; he can't help who he is. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>Fun Stat - Sunday's Game<o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">During Sunday's game, the Twins had back-to-back-to-back home runs, an inning when they batted around, a 5-hit game and a giant half lizard-half toad playing first base. I am 100% certain that this combination of events has never happened in an MLB game. If you know whether or not the first three feats are unique on their own, please make sure to leave a comment. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong>'s hair<o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">I'm pretty sure I'm not hallucinating that hair, right?</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>Plugging My Way<o:p></o:p></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">I wrote a bunch of words about the Hall of Fame last week. I read these posts again this weekend and it seems like I made some pretty outlandish statements. I think I inducted a Yeti into the Hall of Fame, but you'll just have to read to find out. <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/07/projecting-hall-of-fame.html" target="_blank">Here's part one</a></b> and <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/08/projecting-hall-of-fame-part-ii.html" target="_blank">here's part two</a></b>. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Was it just me or were <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong>'s sideburns growing on the field on Saturday?</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><br />
</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>Parting Thought<o:p></o:p></b></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">It was really irritating to have to see all those pink and purple flashes on the screen all weekend. I hope that whatever Fox Sports North was attempting with this new feature is very short-lived. It was impossible to concentrate on the action with those periodic splotches. I turned off the TV for a little while, but then it just turned itself back on. Anyway, I'm feeling a lot better now and I'm looking forward to seeing if the Twins can take a home series against a pretty poor Padres team. Have a great week, everyone! </div>Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-29131148142766632612014-08-01T05:00:00.000-05:002014-08-01T05:00:01.971-05:00Projecting the Hall of Fame Part II???<div class="MsoNormal">
On Wednesday, I took on the impossible task of projecting careers in progress to determine who will make it into the Hall of Fame in the future. If you missed it, <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/07/projecting-hall-of-fame.html" target="_blank">here you go</a></b>. Today, I'm taking it a step further and looking at players who aren't even eligible because they don't have ten years of service time. I did this last year too, and <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/08/which-mlb-players-will-one-day-enter_7.html" target="_blank">you can read that here</a></b>. This is basically an update, as some players from last year have improved or hurt their standing.<br />
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Let's get it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br />
</b> <b>Aging Well... - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Jered Weaver</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Last year, I mentioned that each of these three pitchers was having a great career, but might be too old to build a Hall of Fame case. I added the caveat that if they age well, I could end up being wrong. So far, each is aging pretty well. Wainwright is particularly interesting because he'll probably get some grace from the voters because he started his career as a successful closer and he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball right now. If any of these three pitchers can maintain their current levels through age 35 or so, they become really interesting. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Too Old V2<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This group hasn't reached the required ten seasons but each player is over 30. As such, they might not have enough time to build a longevity HOF career along the lines of Tom Glavine or Craig Biggio. We'll keep these brief.</div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Ian Kinsler</a></strong> - </b>Kinsler probably isn't good enough for a true Hall of Fame case anyway, but he's had a really nice, under-the-radar career. He has good power, good speed, he makes good contact, he draws some walks and he's just a really balanced player. His defense is either good or great depending on the metric. If he ages well, he'll have a nice 50+ WAR career and he'll get some HOF votes.</div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a></strong> - </b>The steroid issue is probably more relevant than his age. I can't imagine he'll get much love when he becomes eligible. He's still a good hitter, although it has been two seasons since he's been an outstanding hitter. He has an uphill climb for things like All-Star appearances and year-end award votes and those things matter to the writers and voters. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a></strong> - </b>I refuse to believe that this season is anything more than a blip on the radar. His batting average is 55 points below his career figure, but so is his BABIP. I imagine he'll bounce back next season (or in the second half of this season). He has a career 153 OPS+, which is just insane. However, the narrative surrounding his plate discipline is going to eat him alive when columns about his Hall of Fame candidacy are written. It will be completely unfair and maybe we'll be past things like that by then, but despite his elite OBP skills, he's going to be a tough sell for a lot of people.</div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Hanley Ramirez</a></strong> - </b>Ramirez is an odd choice for this category because he became a regular when he was 22. However, he dropped off so much from 2010-2012 that it's almost like he debuted at 25. He's back to being a good hitter, but he isn't the generational hitter that he appeared to be when he was actually 25. Plus, his defense at short is not great. Even so, he's young and performing well, so you never know. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Young, Transcendent Talent<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Trout already owns a Rookie of the Year award, an All-Star Game MVP award, two second place MVP finishes, two Silver Sluggers, 25 WAR, a career OPS+ of 169, a great Subway campaign and...wait, why am I even bothering, he's Mike Trout! That's all you need to know. He's the best player in baseball and he's only 22!! </div>
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<br />
I find it extremely hard to believe that this guy isn't in the Hall of Fame come 2035 or 2040 or whenever he becomes eligible. If he has just two more seasons like the one he's having, he'll be at 50 WAR by age 25. Here's the list of guys who have done that in MLB history:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<ul>
<li>Mickey Mantle</li>
<li>Ty Cobb</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'd say that's solid company. If he does that, he can coast the rest of the way to Cooperstown. There's going to be some Trout backlash at some point and it's going to look like comedy in hindsight. Enjoy this guy because we don't see players like Trout very often. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Kershaw has an ERA under 2 since the start of 2013. Since his rookie season (when he was 20!!!!), Kershaw's ERA is 2.37. That's six seasons. That's 1184.2 innings! He is a monster player. He has two Cy Young Awards and is comfortably working on his third. He has led the NL in ERA and WHIP for the past four seasons. His WHIP is under 1 since 2011. That's 809.1 innings with fewer than one runner on base, on average. </div>
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<br />
The best way I can describe Kershaw is that he's "Pitcher Mike Trout." Except, Kershaw came first, so maybe Trout is "Batter Clayton Kershaw." Either way, we need to get these two into the same league so they can face off more often. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>Looking Like Locks<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Felix Hernandez</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I made King Felix's Hall of Fame case when I was trying to make his 2014 AL Cy Young case a few weeks back. <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/07/american-league-midseason-award-winners.html" target="_blank">Why don't you just check that out </a></b>because if you don't see his candidacy by just looking at his stats, then maybe some bullet lists will help you.</div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The two best players in the National League. One will win the 2014 MVP, the other will finish second. Both guys play premium defensive positions and both guys are complete hitters. Tulowitzki's a little older and has dealt with injuries. McCutchen's defense doesn't match up to Tulowitzki's. Both guys are on the Hall of Fame path and seem to be somehow getting better as well. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b>??? - The category that has no category<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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What's going on, Longo? Can I call you Longo? Everyone can have an "down season" or two, but how many players have one at age 28. Are you doing a Hanley Ramirez impression? If so, I'd stop it. Unlike Votto, there isn't a way to explain his decline with a luck-based stat. His power is just not there in 2014. Unfortunately, without power, the low contact he's often carried really sticks out. His defense has been elite just once in the past three seasons, so he can't fall back on that anymore either. <br />
<br /></div>
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If this is just a one-year dip, then I still think he has a pretty decent HOF candidacy. However, if this is some harbinger of a decline, then he wasn't Trouty enough before to have already made a case. </div>
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<b><br />
</b> <b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Salvador Perez</a></strong> <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I'm not sure where to put Perez just yet, so we'll just stick him here. His defense is sublime. He's smooth, he's agile, his arm a weapon and he handles the intangibles of the position extremely well. Second, he's got some massive power in his bat and it's going to emerge. Remember, catchers almost always develop the bat after the glove. </div>
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<br />
His OPS has dipped in each of his four seasons and he does play for the Royals, so bad things can happen. However, I think he can overcome everything, even the Royals-ness. If he wins an MVP in the next five years, I won't be surprised at all. I'm infatuated.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I get that these guys are all super young, but we NEED to plan ahead. If we don't, we might get into a situation where we don't know the stats and narratives required to vote for these players. If that happens, the Hall of Fame could cease to exist. That would be a tragedy! Please understand, I am simply doing my part. Have a nice weekend, everyone!</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-75339563688353051442014-07-30T05:00:00.000-05:002014-07-30T21:28:09.901-05:00Projecting the Hall of Fame???<div class="MsoNormal">
The Hall of Fame inductions for 2014 were this past weekend and whenever that time comes I always start to think about the current players who might be inducted down the line. Last year, I wrote about a multitude of players who I think have a decent or better Hall of Fame case. I am basically updating that list, along with some new names who emerged or became eligible this season. Tomorrow, I plan to write about younger players who aren't eligible just yet. <br />
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I'm not going to write about everyone though. Basically, if I think they are in the same boat as they were at this time last year, I'm not even addressing them. If you want to take a look back, here you go:<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/08/which-mlb-players-will-one-day-enter.html" target="_blank">Qualified Players </a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/08/which-mlb-players-will-one-day-enter_7.html" target="_blank">Non-Qualified Players</a></b></div>
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<br />
As is customary, I have divided the players into some crude groups for your ease. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Not Quite, But Notable<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Much like last year, these are players who could conceivably get a few votes when they hit the ballot and might even stay on the ballot for a year or two. They might even become the pet cause of a given sportswriter. We'll keep things brief with these four. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Torii Hunter</a></strong> - </b>Twins fans have the unique perspective of having seen Hunter as a young player, when he was a little out of control, but extremely fun to watch. His plate discipline improved over time and he aged extremely well. He's your prototypical "Hall of Very Good" player but he can take solace in knowing that he is a lock for the Twins' Hall of Fame. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a></strong> - </b>Depending on how long he plays, Rollins could get some real "counting stat" love. Plus, he has an MVP under his belt. That said, he has a career OPS+ of 97 and his defense wasn't transcendent enough to compensate. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=leecl02,leecl01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Cliff Lee</a></strong> - </b>I think he has a "late bloomer" reputation, but he did win 18 games when he was 26. Lee is the premier command pitcher of this era, but his career ERA+ is only 118, he's 35 and nowhere near 200 wins. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teixema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Mark Teixeira</a></strong> - </b>Hall of Fame name spelling difficulty and he runs weird, so those things need to be considered. He is not aging well and he's basically an all-power guy at this point. If he can somehow reverse that aging curve, he could get close based on counting stats, but 500 home runs appears to be too far away right now. Without that number, I'm not sure he gets much consideration. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Better Chance Than Last Year<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These players were all profiled last year, but they have improved their Hall of Fame stock since that time. Actually, there is one exception...</div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Bobby Abreu</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Abreu wasn't active last year, so I didn't include him. I would have likely tried to make a strong case for Abreu, as I think he has had a really underrated career. His career .291/.395/.475 batting line translates to a 128 OPS+. Anyone who avoids outs nearly 40% of the time catches my eye. Plus, he had good power and speed. He was never a good defender and he didn't play a premium position. He didn't really hit like a traditional right fielder, although that doesn't bother me. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
His peak was truly impressive. From 1998 to 2004, here are his rWARs: 6.4, 6.1, 6.2, 5.2, 5.8, 5.3, 6.5. Somehow, he didn't make an All-Star team until 2004 and he only made two All-Star teams in his career. He'll finish his career with just under 300 home runs, just under 600 doubles, just under 2500 hits and just over 400 stolen bases. He had a wonderful career. </div>
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<br />
Even as a strong pro-Abreu guy, I still think he falls short. His peak was great, but he never topped 3.9 rWAR in any other season and he didn't reach any big, round, impressive numbers. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hudson is having one of his finest seasons at age 38 coming off of a nasty ankle injury that made me call for that weird orange base that we all use in slow-pitch. Considering how well he is pitching this season, it seems somewhat reasonable that he'll pitch well next season. If he can make it through the 2016 season, he has a pretty decent shot at 250 career wins. As far as pitcher wins go, 250 might be the new 300. He's the active wins leader and we all know that big, round numbers elevate a Hall of Fame case. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
I still don't think he makes it, but coming back from last season's injury with this much success is certainly a positive.</div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Buehrle isn't a great candidate, but he has a case. His career ERA is in Jack Morris territory. While he's won a lot of games, he's also lost a lot of games. He's not a strikeout pitcher. Of course, if you want to make a meta Hall of Fame argument for Buehrle, that might be where you focus. See, he was able to have a ton of success without great stuff, right? Maybe that proves that he's a better pitcher than the stats show? There's a narrative to be built, but I don't have the strength. He's had a great career; that's enough. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Greinke's an odd choice too. He had that one amazing season in 2009, but he's never been elite in any other season. He was great last year, but he only threw 177 innings. He's been great so far this season, not coincidentally his second All-Star season. Greinke has a long way to go, but he's in the right place to make a run. Dodger Stadium has helped many pitchers perform above their heads. Greinke will be in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't be surprising to see him turn in a few excellent seasons before he hits 33. If that happens, he might have a surprisingly solid HOF app (application not iOS app). </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Worse Chance Than Last Year<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">CC Sabathia</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I was pretty high on Sabathia's chances last year, as I had only Roy Halladay and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a></strong> ahead of him on my non-locks list. However, he's been pretty bad since about June of last season and he's now out for all of 2014. Of course, he'll only be 34 next year and he has over 200 wins already. Plus, he plays in one of the biggest markets and gets a ton of attention. I think his chances are worse than they were at this time last year, but I still think he's in a pretty decent position if he can rebound in 2015. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Still Young(ish), But It's Not Looking Good - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">David Wright</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Dustin Pedroia</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Yep, four guys in one paragraph. Last year, I would have argued that Mauer and Verlander were borderline locks and that Wright and Pedroia could join them with just 2-3 more good seasons. This would have been massively premature, as shown by the fact that each of these players is struggling in 2014, putting their "Hall" chances in jeopardy. Mauer isn't catching (or hitting for that matter), Verlander isn't striking out batters as prolifically and Wright and Pedroia suddenly have zero power. Each of these players is over 30 and in the decline phase of their career. Without a post-30 renaissance, they are all headed for the Hall of Very Good. </div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Locks<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don't think this is premature. Cabrera is having a down season in which he's batting .309/.364/.531. He's put together an impressive 12-year career and he's only 31. He's won two MVPs, a triple crown and he's made 9 All-Star teams. Unless the wheels really fall off, he's a lock for 3000 hits and 500 home runs. Don't believe me? If he can play just 140 games over the next four seasons and hit about .300, he'll have about 2950 hits. Even if he's in severe decline by then, I think he can piece together 50 more hits. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Unless something shady is involved, there's simply no way a player with 3000 hits, 500 home runs, two MVPs, a triple crown and 10+ All-Star selections is not in the Hall of Fame. He's 18th in JAWS rankings for 3rd basemen, and he should have no issues getting into the top 12 within a couple more seasons. He's a lock. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b>
<b>Adrian Beltre<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Of course, Cabrera isn't a third baseman any longer. Beltre is and he ranks 8th among all-time 3rd basemen by JAWS. I'm completely in on Adrian Beltre, Hall of Famer. Last year, I waffled and decided that I didn't think he was a lock just yet. Now, I think he's a lock and I'll go on the fake record.</div>
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He's in the middle of his 8th 5+ WAR season. He's one of the best defensive third basemen of all-time. Sure, his numbers dipped like crazy in Seattle, but now we're finding that seems to happen to a lot of guys. In the five seasons since he left Seattle, he has a 138 OPS+. He has over 2500 hits, over 500 doubles, over 1300 RBI and he'll get to 400 home runs by the end of this season. He's just 35 as well. </div>
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Some would argue that he needs anywhere from 1-3 more seasons like his past five, but I'm ready to vote for him right now. I think the defense is the kicker. It's not just that he's a great defender, he's one of the best ever. The Hall of Fame is all about recognizing the best ever. Beltre's a lock in my book.</div>
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If we're looking at active players who will be in the Hall of Fame one day, I think there are five locks: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Ichiro Suzuki</a></strong>, Beltre and Cabrera. The first three should have no difficulties, Cabrera probably needs just two or three more good seasons and Beltre should be in so long as he can maintain 80% of his current level of production through the end of his current contract. </div>
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Some of the other guys on this list will age well and join those five. Some will never be mentioned in their breath again. Some guys who I will write about tomorrow might have even better cases. Ah, intrigue! Check back Friday for more Hall of Fame <s>nonsense</s> analysis!Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4928793642566835928.post-85425563572672141692014-07-28T05:00:00.000-05:002014-07-28T12:00:04.218-05:00Monday Morning Madness: July 28, 2014<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Weekend Recap<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Who won the most recent game? Those of us with a healthy recency bias are pretty high on the Twins right now. Everyone else? Not so much.</div>
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<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darnelo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Logan Darnell</a></strong>...sort of<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Congratulations to Darnell for making his first MLB start on Saturday. He got lit up, but it's still a great moment for him. Darnell absolutely deserved this opportunity. He's slowly climbed through the Twins' system since being drafted in the 6th round in 2010. In 2014, he's made 17 AAA starts and has a 3.43 ERA. When the Twins needed a starter on Saturday, Darnell was a logical choice. </div>
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In fact, Darnell, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinoyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Yohan Pino</a></strong> (who was great on Sunday) and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnskr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kris Johnson</a></strong> have all deserved the starts they have received. Each has pitched well at AAA and each has paid their Minor League dues. That said, can we please have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=may---001tre&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Trevor May</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Alex Meyer</a></strong> now? </div>
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Darnell, Pino and Johnson are deserving, but Meyer and May are more talented and much more likely to be in the rotation for a long time. Pino is 30, Johnson joins him at 30 in October and Darnell actually has a higher AAA ERA than either Meyer or May. </div>
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I understand being patient with prospects, but at this point in the season, Meyer and May need to be on the active roster, learning how to get MLB hitters out. If the Twins have any shot of contending in 2015, one or both of these talented pitchers need to contribute. </div>
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<b><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Brian Dozier</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Oswaldo Arcia</a></strong> <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Here's an old Bill Simmons trope for you:</div>
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<li>Player A - .230/.325/.418</li>
<li>Player B - .221/.303/.385</li>
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Player A is Dozier, Player B is Arcia. Player A was elected President of Twins Territory, Player B is having an abysmal sophomore season. At least, that's how I've read and heard things. Since May 21, when Dozier's line peaked at .263/.377/.480, he is batting .211/.290/.383. </div>
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This isn't even meant to be a criticism of Dozier, more of a call to "back off" of Arcia. I'm glad to see Arcia in the lineup most days, something I called for last Monday. He rewarded the Twins with a pretty decent week. The major difference between Dozier and Arcia is the Twins' willingness to let Dozier work through his slumps. Arcia needs to be afforded the same opportunity, especially if the Twins want him to be a cornerstone player in the near future.</div>
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<b>Why I hated 2011-2013<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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You may have already picked up on a trend from these past two sections, but the thing that bothered me most during the crummy 2011-13 seasons was the Twins' unwillingness to commit to young players with an eye toward the future. To me, a disappointing season is a great time to see what you have in a young player. I'll give the Twins a pass in 2011, because they didn't think they would be bad. 2012-13? No pass.</div>
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Oswaldo Arcia was shuffled from AAA to Minnesota routinely in 2013. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrli01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Liam Hendriks</a></strong> wasn't given a chance to work through struggles in 2012 or 2013. Brian Dozier wasn't even on the Opening Day roster in 2012, which I had actually forgotten about. </div>
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When <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pintojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Josmil Pinto</a></strong> was called up in September of 2013, it didn't seem like he was going to get much playing time. Then, he hit like freaking Ted Williams and the Twins had no choice but to give him more playing time. The better plan would have had Pinto as the primary catcher from the start of September. </div>
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Well, at least they tried with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Aaron Hicks</a></strong>. Of course, they also gave up in the middle of the 2013 season. Granted, he was awful, he had hit better as the season had went on. As such, the Twins came into 2014 with no clue how Hicks would perform. He performed as the baseball equivalent of Courtney Love. </div>
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Maybe these guys hadn't fully earned their chances. They almost certainly should have played better when they actually arrived. But what was the point in either waiting on them or not giving them opportunity to adjust? It wasn't an effort to win games because if it was, it was a massive failure. </div>
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After the trade deadline later this week, the Twins should be prepared to commit to their young players. Meyer, May, Arcia, Pinto, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Danny Santana</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tonkimi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Michael Tonkin</a></strong>, maybe even <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vargas001ken&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kennys Vargas</a></strong>. There is no way the Twins plan to be bad in 2015, so they need to figure out if any of these guys are going to be reliable next year and after next year. </div>
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Or, they can just call up a bunch of AAA duds and watch the fans enjoy the Vikings pre-season. It's really up to them. </div>
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<b>Former Twin Update - Trade Deadline<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Next week, I'll have a current Twin to profile in this section. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moralke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Kendrys Morales</a></strong> was traded last week and he won't be the only 2014 Twin on a different team by the end of this week. The Twins appear to be fully committed to selling, something I applaud them for. Anyone who isn't a part of the future should be jettisoned. I hope that I'm picking between a few different guys for this section next week. <br />
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For this week's update, Kendrys Morales continued to be Kendrys Molasses with the Mariners. </div>
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<b>Random Gif - Totally Worth It<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsJZAIfhcS55Lge-DotEO5Ratvz-3h2lVWYf2nuEWmUcpcrCC5rPxLP-hpfoibHhKeJNJWPOpz0aqYKAg2OCiOCiBqOpz7ppvdiVwKb0oF_wqwVhLOb9kf9nYMwcos235PNfKoEIJ-vE_y/s1600/guyfalldown.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsJZAIfhcS55Lge-DotEO5Ratvz-3h2lVWYf2nuEWmUcpcrCC5rPxLP-hpfoibHhKeJNJWPOpz0aqYKAg2OCiOCiBqOpz7ppvdiVwKb0oF_wqwVhLOb9kf9nYMwcos235PNfKoEIJ-vE_y/s1600/guyfalldown.gif" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
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People love baseballs that are discarded into the stands. This clip is proof. A few things. One, the guy was okay. Two, the guy to his left (from his perspective while laying in traction on the ground) seemed legitimately concerned. Three, hey guy who got the ball, it's actually pretty bad form to hold your trophy over the carcass of the guy who fell neck-first into metal seats to make sure the ball got to you. Four, Willingham smoked one of the next pitches into the bullpen. Ryan Presley resisted the urge to try to back flip into the bleachers to catch the ball. </div>
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<b>Get Excited about a Prospect - <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=thorpe000lew&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" target="_blank">Lewis Thorpe</a></strong><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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For those who aren't in the know, Lewis Thrope is an 18-year-old Australian lefty who is making his full-season debut with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. While you may not get excited about a guy with a 4.91 ERA in 9 starts, I am ecstatic. Thorpe had a rough outing on Thursday, but his overall numbers are pretty impressive. He was a little wild in his first two starts, but since then, he's thrown 29.1 innings over seven starts, has a 4.30 ERA with 32 strikeouts while allowing just 12 walks (4 on Thursday). </div>
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I cannot remind you hard enough (can one remind hard?) that Thorpe is a full four years younger than the average player in the Midwest League. He may not be dominating like he did in the GCL in 2013, but he's more than holding his own against much more advanced players. And, he's dominating at times too. On July 2, he went just 4.2 innings, but he struck out 8 and walked just one. This guy could be special. Let's get excited!</div>
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<b>Random Link - Trade Perkins?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b><a href="http://twinsfanfromafar.blogspot.com/2014/07/trade-glen-perkins.html" target="_blank">I really enjoyed this article</a></b> from Andrew Walter, Twins Fan From Afar. It was thoughtful, well-reasoned, articulate and fair, four things I am not known for. The discussion it generated at Twins Daily was great too. Perkins is such a tough trade chip because he is so popular among all fans in Minnesota. </div>
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Even so, I have to agree with Walter. If the Twins get a great offer for Perkins, I'd make the move. The fact is, the Twins might be further from contention than we want to admit. Perkins could bring back a really impressive haul. It's hard to remove the heart from the head, but the Twins might be wise to try if a team offers something eye-popping for their proven closer. <br />
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<i>UPDATE (Unsolved Mysteries) - There are two sides to a coin, unless you have a ridiculous coin. Bill Parker wrote this rebuttal for Twinkie Town and it's very compelling. I particularly enjoyed his first point as I think the pro-sabr, but not really the principles of sabr crowd misses the point on closers sometimes. The last paragraphs sums things up nicely, as a good last paragraph is wont to do. <b><a href="http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/7/23/5928717/dont-trade-glen-perkins" target="_blank">READ IT!</a></b></i></div>
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<b>Plugging My Way</b></div>
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While I love to plug better writers' work, I really love plugging my own writing. Last week, I wrote about Trevor May and the value of a good, cheap, durable 4th starter. I did some crude research and found that shockingly, they are very valuable. If you missed it and want to criticize my research skills, <b><a href="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-value-of-trevor-may-as-4th-starter.html" target="_blank">just click here</a></b>. n = the sample size, I'm pretty sure of that. Everything else I cobbled together from Moneyball and cereal boxes. </div>
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<b>Parting Haiku<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Last weekend was lame</div>
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Now they go out on the road<br />
Time for BBQ</div>
Bradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02479316118280432353noreply@blogger.com4