Minnesota Twins Fan Previews the 2014 Minnesota Twins

As a Twins fan, I am exhausted.  The baseball season is a lengthy commitment for a fan.  Getting up every morning and putting on all that face paint and gluing on that rainbow wig can become tedious, especially when your favorite team is losing.  The Twins haven't had a competitive season since 2010 and 2014 doesn't look super promising on paper.  However, the Twins have worked hard to improve the on-field product and they seem committed to building a winning team.  The farm system is loaded and the new-look rotation is intriguing.  Unlike 2012 and 2013 where the team looked brutal from the jump, you can squint and see a .500 team in 2014.  I'm not sure how likely that is, but that glimmer of hope is enough to keep me buying massive quantities of face paint and foam fingers every week. 

Key Acquisitions

Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kurt Suzuki

"Key" Acquisitions

Sean Gilmartin, Kris Johnson, Brooks Raley, Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett and Matt Guerrier

Notable Losses

Liam Hendriks, Clete Thomas, Ryan Doumit, Pedro Hernandez, Cole De Vries, and Andrew Albers

My favorite offseason move?

Phil Hughes and I outlined exactly why in the number 4 spot in my March 17 Power Rankings.  I won't repeat myself, I'll just link myself.  There are more links within the link.  It's a link party!

More importantly, are they better than last year?

It's hard to argue that they aren't.  The Twins had to mine deep to find starting pitching last year.  The number of different AAA starters on the MLB roster was outrageous.  10 different starters made 8 or more starts for the Twins in 2013, including the following immortals:  Pedro Hernandez, Liam Hendriks and P.J. Walters.  You can debate the quality of the guys the Twins signed, but both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco should be capable of making 27 or more starts, which will limit the amount of starts made by dregs like I listed earlier. 

The offense is mostly the same, but young players often get better, not worse.  The Twins have a lot of young players. 

Awesome Name from the Organization

Engelb Vielma

Former Twin Alert!

Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett and Matt Guerrier are all vying to become former former Twins. 

Depth Chart

C	Kurt Suzuki	SP1	Ricky Nolasco
1B	Joe Mauer	SP2	Kevin Correia
2B	Brian Dozier	SP3	Phil Hughes
3B	Trevor Plouffe	SP4	Mike Pelfrey
SS	Pedro Florimon	SP5	Vance Worley
LF	Josh Willingham	SU	Jared Burton
CF	Alex Presley	SU	Samuel Deduno
RF	Oswaldo Arcia	CL	Glen Perkins
DH	Jason Kubel

Lineup

I would say the lineup is emerging.  You look at the names and it's not very exciting.  Joe Mauer is fantastic, Brian Dozier was pretty good last year and Oswaldo Arcia was above-average.  That said, among the likely 9-man lineup, only Mauer managed an OPS+ of 103 or better.  Arica posted a 102 OPS+ and Dozier had a 100 OPS+, both just hovering at league-average.  It looks bleak, as Justin Morneau is ostensibly replaced with Kurt Suzuki and Alex Presley will be in the lineup for the full year.  Other than those downgrades, it looks very similar to the lineup that scored just 614 runs, third worst in the AL. 

There are some potential bright spots though.  Whoever plays center will almost certainly perform better than Aaron Hicks did in 2013 and that includes Hicks himself, should he win the job.  Josh Willingham was awful last year, but had a 143 OPS+ in 2012.  Trevor Plouffe went from a 106 OPS+ in 2012 to a 94 OPS+ in 2013, so he could rebound a bit.  Arcia and Dozier could keep trending positively.  Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello could form a decent DH platoon.  Josmil Pinto could replace Kurt Suzuki.  The lineup is not a strength of this team, but it could get to a point where it is no longer a weakness. 

Defense

This really depends on who wins jobs.  If Alex Presley beats out Aaron Hicks, the outfield defense could be really bad.  I know that Hicks did not rate as a good defender last year, but he is a good defender and he has a massive arm.  Presley can get the job done, but he doesn't have Hicks' arm or range.  Arica and Willingham on the corners is really suspect.  The infield defense should be fine as Pedro Florimon is great and Eduardo Escobar would be about 80% of Florimon.  Brian Dozier looked good at second and Joe Mauer is a natural.  Trevor Plouffe isn't great, but he does make up for some of his lack of range with a really strong arm.  Kurt Suzuki is on the roster specifically for his defense.    

All that said, center field is the key to everything.  The Twins will catch a lot of fly balls if Hicks is in center and a lot fewer if Presley is out there. 

Rotation

Regardless of how you feel about Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes as pitchers, you have to admit that the Twins were able to upgrade their rotation pretty significantly this offseason.  Last year, the Twins were forced to use this quintet of starters 48 times:  Kyle Gibson, P.J. Walters, Pedro Hernandez, Vance Worley and Liam Hendriks.  Those five fellows rewarded the Twins with a combined ERA north of 6.5.  That is an unbelievable figure.  If the Twins can simply replace those 48 starts with 48 starts from Nolasco and Hughes, their runs against and team ERAs will plummet.  Worley and Gibson could improve, as they are young players.  Hernandez, Walters and Hendriks are thankfully not available for the Twins any longer.

The rest of the rotation is suspect.  Sam Deduno looked crazily good last year and Kevin Correia was a nice surprise.  Mike Pelfrey was pretty awful at the beginning of the year, but improved as the year went on.  Scott Diamond made 24 starts and was not great.  Those starts could have been included in the 48-start quintet of crap, but that would have made a sextet and I didn't want any giggles.  If Correia and Pelfrey can average out their performances last year, if Hughes and Nolasco can stay healthy and if one of Gibson, Diamond, Worley and Deduno can turn in just an average season (say 25 starts at 4.5 ERA), the rotation could go from "AAA Special" to "Actual MLB rotation." 

Bullpen

I often discuss the Twins bullpen as a strength of the team.  I feel this is true partially because there are good performers in the bullpen and partially because the rest of the team has been quite poor.  The Twins' bullpen is good, but it isn't deep.  Glen Perkins is awesome and Casey Fien does a really nice job.  Jared Burton and Brian Duensing have been good pitchers in the recent past, but each had struggles in 2013.  Anthony Swarzak was possibly the Twins' best pitcher last year, when you consider the role he was given and how well he performed.  There are some young guys who look like potential contributors as well (Michael Tonkin, Edgar Ibarra and Ryan Pressly).  In addition, one of the losers in the 5th starter battle could end up in the bullpen and I think Deduno and/or Worley could really do well in that role. 

The bullpen is going to be good, but it could be better than that.  If the young guys improve and the veterans bounce back, the bullpen could become a strength of this team on its own and not by comparison to the rest of the team. 

World Series aspirations?

N/A, at least not right now.  I think there are aspirations down the line though.  The Twins should grow as an MLB team this year, but their organizational growth will be even more important.  If prominent prospects continue to grow, the franchise outlook will get brighter.  I think the Twins could contend for a World Series before the end of this decade. 

Can the Twins finish ahead of them?

This question doesn't really work.  Unless we think in a really meta manner.  I guess the Twins can exceed their expectations, thereby finishing ahead of the Twins.  So yes, they will finish ahead of the Twins.  I think the national perception is that the Twins are still a 95-loss team.  I don't think they are.  Locally, we are more optimistic.  I think the Twins could win as many as 81 games in 2014.  That would be their ceiling, but there is enough talent on this roster to win half of their games. 

Projected AL Central finish - 4th

The Twins avoided the AL Central basement in 2013, but that had more to do with the White Sox being a completely rancid team.  The Twins weren't good in 2013 and they really weren't much better than they were in 2012.  However, the Twins supplemented their roster by adding two quality pieces, strengthening 40% of their starting rotation.  The younger players should continue to develop and more young players are lurking, ready to claim their long-term spots on the team. 

The Twins could surprise in 2014, even if that is unlikely.  However, can a surprise really be likely?  Does that make it a surprise?  I can see the Twins winning anywhere from 65 to 80 games in 2014.  That would be a frustrating range if the ceiling wasn't immensely higher than Twins fans have grown accustomed to in recent years.  A run at a .500 record would energize me, I know that for sure.  It would be a step in the right direction and a positive sign of even better things to come.

If you're interested, here is the whole lot of AL Central team previews (in projected order of finish):

Tigers
Royals
Indians
Twins
White Sox

Minnesota Twins Fan Previews the 2014 Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have won three consecutive AL Central titles and look like the heavy favorites to win their 4th in a row.  They have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner in Max Scherzer.  They have the reigning AL MVP and current best hitter in the World in Miguel Cabrera.  They have one of the best starters of this generation in Justin Verlander.  They have a potent offense, a loaded rotation and a respected front office.  However, they have a new manager with an aging roster and they made some questionable moves in the offseason.  Some visible cracks are starting to appear.  Are they good enough to hold off the rest of the division for at least one more year?

Key Acquisitions

Ian Kinsler, Robbie Ray and Joe Nathan

"Key" Acquisitions

Ronny Paulino, Duane Below, Rajai Davis, and Joba Chamberlain

Notable Losses

Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Omar Infante, Brayan Pena, Jhonny Peralta, Darin Downs, Jose Veras, Prince Fielder and Doug Fister

My favorite offseason move?

I guess it was the Kinsler trade.  They had to make room for Nick Castellanos and moving him to the outfield would take away one of his biggest assets, his defense at third base.  Thus, someone had to move and Fielder was the guy.  They saved a bunch of money too.

More importantly, are they better than last year?

I don't think they are.  They barely won the division last year and I think they got worse.  They traded Doug Fister for players who won't really help in 2014 and they replaced an elite closer with another elite closer, but one who is approaching 40.  There's a path to an 81-win season for this team, although I don't think that will happen.

Awesome Name from the Organization

Warwick Saupold

Former Twin Alert!

Torii Hunter and Joe Nathan, combined age = 77.

Depth Chart

C	Alex Avila	SP1	Justin Verlander
1B	Miguel Cabrera	SP2	Max Scherzer
2B	Ian Kinsler	SP3	Anibal Sanchez
3B	Nick Castellanos	SP4	Rick Porcello
SS	Eugenio Suarez	SP5	Drew Smyly
LF	Don Kelly	SU	Joba Chamberlain
CF	Austin Jackson	SU	Bruce Rondon
RF	Torii Hunter	CL	Joe Nathan
DH	Victor Martinez

Lineup

The Tigers have an excellent lineup.  Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections has their lineup projected for the fourth most runs in the American League.  Fourth, huh?  I would have thought higher without looking.  Pecota has the Tigers projected for roughly 50 more runs scored than the Twins, which seems really low.  The Tigers scored 182 more runs than the Twins in 2013.  It doesn't really add up.

Then, I look at their lineup and I can see why BP would be just a bit skeptical.  Prince Fielder is gone.  Ian Kinsler may be a better overall player due to speed, body type, position and defense, but he can't hit like Fielder.  Jhonny Peralta is gone, replaced initially by Jose Iglesias and now potentially with Eugenio Suarez.  Those two may field better than Peralta but they aren't in his neighborhood on offense.  Nick Castellanos is a rookie.  Torii Hunter is 38, Victor Martinez is 35 and even Miguel Cabrera is 31.  It's possible that their lineup is significantly worse than last year as three of their five best hitters are on different teams. 

Defense

The Tigers are clearly putting more emphasis on defense.  They traded Prince Fielder to open first base for Miguel Cabrera.  That helps their defense.  They plan to use Nick Castellanos at third.  That helps their defense.  They had intended to use Jose Iglesias and his weak bat at short.  That would have helped their defense but he has major shin splints and will miss a bunch of time.  Now, an unproven rookie with good, but not great defensive skills will play short.  Ian Kinsler is just ok.  Torii Hunter is a shell of his former defensive self.  Austin Jackson and Alex Avila do a fine job, but they aren't plusses.  They addressed their defense, but bad luck and older players may undermine everything. 

Rotation

There is no way to spin the Tigers' rotation in a negative direction.  They have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner (Max Scherzer), another worthy candidate from 2013 (Anibal Sanchez) and one of the best starters from the past decade (Justin Verlander).  However, they did trade away a fourth good starter (Doug Fister) to free up money to spend on a closer (more on that later). 

Drew Smyly will slide into the rotation in 2013.  He's just 25 and has great promise as a left-handed starter.  However, he wasn't great in that role in 2012 and he was great as a reliever in 2013.  He'll also have to build arm strength as he only threw 76 innings in 2013.  Rick Porcello rounds out the rotation and he's a statistical darling who hasn't put it all together just yet.  He's an elite ground ball pitcher with a good strikeout rate and a better walk rate.  That said, his career ERA is 4.51.  He should be better than that, but he hasn't been.  Can he be relied upon to finally break out in 2014? 

Fister had a 115 ERA+ in 2013.  I doubt that Porcello or Smyly achieve that number, which means the rotation could be worse than last year.  This does not even address the fact that both Scherzer and Sanchez pitched better than they ever had before in 2013.  Will they be able to match their career-best seasons in 2014?  Oh, and Justin Verlander's strikeout rate has dropped in each of the past three seasons, while his walk rate has increased.    

Bullpen

The Tigers replaced Joaquin Benoit with Joe Nathan.  Nathan is four years older, $5 million more expensive and equally productive.  Nathan does have a lot more career saves though.  Nothing against Nathan, but the perception was that the Tigers traded Fister to free up money to sign Nathan.  If that's true, it's a downgrade when you consider everything involved.  Bruce Rondon is sitting there, ready to take over as closer.  If given the opportunity, he could be at least 80% of Nathan at 5% of the cost.  Rondon and Fister or Nathan and Smyly?  Which pair would you rather have?

Now consider that the bullpen was weakened with Smyly's move to the rotation.  And, that move might not even work.  I would try it too, as a 4th starter is more valuable to me than a set-up man, but it's not without risk.  The rest of the bullpen is shaky.  Phil Coke is a character.  Al Alburquerque can be dominant, but he can walk the universe too.  The Tigers did sign Joba Chamberlain and he's never been mysterious or inconsistent.  Nathan and Rondon are good, so the bullpen can be solid.  The cost of building that solid bullpen might have been too high though. 

World Series aspirations?

They have them, but I don't see it.  I think Boston is better.  I think Tampa Bay is better.  I think Oakland is better.  I think Kansas City might be better.  That said, if everything clicks, they could easily compete for the World Series in 2014.  Their top three starters are as good as any top three in the Majors and Miguel Cabrera is still in his prime.

Can the Twins finish ahead of them?

It would be very unlikely and require a massive collapse from the Tigers' older players.  The Twins can't match up with the Tigers, especially in the rotation, where the Tigers have a massive and almost unfair advantage (from the perspective of a whiny Twins fan).  Even if things fall apart for the Tigers in 2014, it would be more relative to their expectations and I doubt they would collapse to the point of a losing season.

Projected AL Central finish - 1st

My head still puts the Tigers at the top of the division.  I hold no ill-will toward the Tigers.  I watched them lose 119 games in 2003 and their fans deserve some success after such a pathetic stretch of seasons.  There's just something about this team that I don't like.  In past years, it has been their defense.  While they have addressed their defense, they've mostly gone from bad to not bad and I'm not sure that's enough.  Their offense is slightly worse and their rotation isn't the lock that it appears to be.  Their bullpen is just fine and they don't have a lot in the system to fill needs as they arise.  The Royals are a legitimate threat to the Tigers in 2014 and Father Time is a legitimate threat to the Tigers in 2015 and going forward. 

If you're interested, here is the whole lot of AL Central team previews (in projected order of finish):

Tigers
Royals
Indians
Twins
White Sox

Minnesota Twins Fan Previews the 2014 Kansas City Royals

As you are already aware, the Royals screwed up everything again last year, mortgaging their future by trading away the next Mickey Mantle for a number 5 starter and failing to make the playoffs for the 200th straight season.  Oh, you aren't familiar with exaggeration?  You must not read a lot about the Royals.  In reality, the Royals made the difficult decision to part with the very promising Wil Myers to acquire a very solid starter in James Shields.  That move, combined with a very savvy Ervin Santana acquisition, a very talented and dominant bullpen and some development from their young offense led to a 14-win improvement in 2013.  They missed out on the playoffs for the 28th straight season, but they finished above .500 for the first time since 2003.  Can they finally get over the playoff hump in 2014?

Key Acquisitions

Jason Vargas, Norichika Aoki, and Omar Infante

"Key" Acquisitions

Gorkys Hernandez, P.J. Walters, Brandon Laird, Cory Wade, Danny Valencia, and Jon Rauch

Notable Losses

Ervin Santana, Felipe Paulino, Emilio Bonafacio, Will Smith, Jazzy Jeff, Jamey Carroll, and Carlos Pena

My favorite offseason move?

The Norichika Aoki trade was solid.  He's a solid hitter, solid defender and a solid runner.  Don't laugh, but I secretly like the Danny Valencia signing too.  Valencia crushes left-handed pitching and he and Mike Moustakas could form a pretty decent platoon.  Of course, if Valencia is at third and you're sitting behind first base, you could head home with stitch marks near your ear. 

More importantly, are they better than last year?

Offensively, yes.  Aoki will replace David Lough, who played well, but above his head.  Omar Infante will vastly outperform Chris Getz.  Danny Valencia can help too, as he'll crush lefties in place of Moustakas, who hit under .200 against lefties in 2013. 

Their pitching could be worse though.  Ervin Santana was great last year.  Jason Vargas just isn't as good as Santana.  Jeremy Guthrie was good too, but good luck figuring out why.  His ever-disappearing strikeout rate is troubling.  James Shields was fantastic last year, but he's not an Ace so no one is allowed to like him.  A lot rides on the young arm of Yordano Ventura, but we can talk about him later.

Awesome Name from the Organization

Sugar Ray Marimon

Former Twin Alert!

C'mon, it's got to be Danny V!

Depth Chart

C	Salvador Perez	SP1	James Shields
1B	Eric Hosmer	SP2	Jeremy Guthrie
2B	Omar Infante	SP3	Jason Vargas
3B	Mike Moustakas	SP4	Bruce Chen
SS	Alcides Escobar	SP5	Yordano Ventura
LF	Alex Gordon	SU	Kelvin Herrera
CF	Lorenzo Cain	SU	Wade Davis
RF	Norichika Aoki	CL	Greg Holland
DH	Billy Butler

Lineup

I like their lineup.  The additions of Infante and Aoki should make a better overall lineup.  Neither player is truly special, but both are capable of league-average offense.  Infante is particularly important as the Royals have had a gaping hole at second base for quite some time.  Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are solid.  Eric Hosmer seemed to figure some things out last year.  Salvador Perez is a budding star.  Mike Moustakas took a huge step backwards, but hit .244/.295/.386 against right-handed pitching.  That is simply putrid, not a sopping mess of putrid (he hit .196/.256/.290 against lefties).  Danny Valencia has hit .329/.367/.513 against lefties in his career, so a platoon could work very well.  Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar are...well, they're great defenders.  

Defense

Cain and Escobar join Perez as great defenders.  Moustakas is no slouch either.  Infante and Gordon are good.  Aoki will be fine and Hosmer can handle first.  The Royals have the best defense in the Central and it's not really all that close.  They might have the best defense in the Majors, although Tampa Bay's creative shifting boosts their numbers.  The Royals' defense might be one of the biggest advantages that they have over their biggest AL Central competitor, although the Tigers have worked to address their defense. 

Rotation

I'm less excited about their rotation.  Adding James Shields was a fantastic move.  It's a shame that they had to trade Wil Myers to get him, but there's a cost to everything.  The problem is that Shields is a free agent after this season and the rest of the rotation is up in the air.  Jeremy Guthrie was shockingly good last year, but can he keep it up?  Jason Vargas is consistent, but he isn't exciting and he doesn't replace Ervin Santana.  Bruce Chen is like a wizard or something, but he could fall apart at any moment.  Wade Davis is better suited for relief.  Danny Duffy hasn't looked good this Spring. 

All of those questions and issues leave a lot of pressure on the 22-year-old right arm of Yordano Ventura.  He can hit triple-digits with his fastball and he's an elite prospect.  However, he's just 22 and has just 2 career MLB starts under his belt.  Expecting Ventura to replace Santana's production over the course of the 2014 season would be unwise.  Of course, he might.  Who knows?  If he does, the Royals could be really good.

Bullpen

If my Caps Lock button was working, you can believe that I'd have it fully engaged right now.  Greg Holland had an ERA+ of 342 in 2013.  Luke Hochevar's was 215.  Aaron Crow and Tim Collins posted solid ERAs despite some issues with walks.  Kelvin Herrera was a bit unlucky, but really good.  Hochevar is out for the season, but Wade Davis should slide down from the rotation and fill in quite nicely.  Louis Coleman had a 686 ERA+ SIX HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SIX.  My shift key works!

Their bullpen is outstanding. 

World Series aspirations?

I'm not sure they can win the World Series, but they can certainly make the playoffs.  If Ventura develops into a reliable starter, their one-two punch of Shields and Ventura would look really good in the playoffs.  Their outstanding bullpen could win them a few playoff games as well. 

Can the Twins finish ahead of them?

Unlikely.  The Royals are clearly better than the Twins.  The Royals have a dominant bullpen, while the Twins simply have a good bullpen.  The Royals have a couple of questions in their rotation instead of "all of the questions," like the Twins.  The Royals are a better defensive team and they have more established offensive players.  The Twins will finish comfortably behind the Royals in 2014.

Projected AL Central finish - 2nd because I am gutless

I really think the Royals can win the Central in 2014.  It would be a fantastic story.  More importantly, they have a talented team.  I wish they had just shelled out enough cash to keep Ervin Santana.  If he was coming back, I'd pick the Royals over the Tigers.  With Jason Vargas in his place, it would be asking too much of a rookie (Ventura) to pick them as division champs.  That said, I won't be surprised if the Royals finish first.  They improved their offense, their bullpen is outstanding, their defense is equally outstanding and their rotation could still be potent. 

I love the city of Kansas City (that sounds awkward, how do you write that?) and I feel compassion for the Royals fans.  I hope they win the Central in 2014 because they are going to run out of chances really soon. 

If you're interested, here is the whole lot of AL Central team previews (in projected order of finish):

Tigers
Royals
Indians
Twins
White Sox

Minnesota Twins Fan Previews the 2014 Cleveland Indians

The Indians were one of the five worst teams in baseball in 2012.  They finished just two games ahead of the Twins, avoiding the cellar of the AL Central but still losing a bunch of games.  The Twins are in a full rebuild, but the Indians decided to reload instead.  The made a series of intelligent moves after the 2012 season and saw growth from a few key young players.  Carlos Santana, Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Kipnis all turned in great seasons, much better than their showings in 2012.  As a result, the Indians went from 94 losses to 92 wins and the AL Wild Card game.  Are the Indians in a position to continue their climb, or will 2013 be a one-year bump that they cannot maintain?

Key Acquisitions

David Murphy and John Axford

"Key" Acquisitions

Josh Outman, Jeff Francoeur, Nyjer Morgan, Shaun Marcum, David Aardsma and Aaron Harang

Notable Losses

Matt Albers, Scott Kazmir, Chris Perez, Joe Smith, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Drew Stubbs

My favorite offseason move?

I'll probably always have a soft spot for Shaun Marcum.  I played fantasy baseball one time, back in 2008, and I grabbed Marcum as a free agent and he pitched really well.  I was so proud of myself; I nearly exploded.  Of course, Marcum missed all of 2009 and major parts of 2012 and 2013 since then, but I'll always remember 2008...

The Indians could get a steal if Marcum can return to health.  That's a huge "if" at this point in Marcum's career, but there's a chance.

More importantly, are they better than last year?

No and I'm not sure it would be possible to say otherwise.  They lost Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, who combined to give the Indians 61 starts last season.  The rotation got worse and the bullpen did as well, as the Indians lost Joe Smith and Matt Albers.  Both Smith and Albers were great for the Indians in 2013.  While the Indians have some young players on the upswing, I think it is fair to say that both Carlos Santana (137 OPS+ in 2013) and Jason Kipnis (133 OPS+ in 2013) had their breakout seasons last year.   

Awesome Name from the Organization

Enosil Tejeda.  There is an "I" in Enosil.  Enosiiiiiiil.

Former Twin Alert!

Duelin' Matts!  Matt Capps and Matt Carson.  Neither guy will play a significant role, but we'll always have the memories. 

Depth Chart

C	Yan Gomes	SP1	Justin Masterson
1B	Nick Swisher	SP2	Corey Kluber
2B	Jason Kipnis	SP3	Zach McAllister
3B	Lonnie Chisenhall	SP4	Danny Salazar
SS	Asdrubal Cabrera	SP5	Carlos Carrasco
LF	Michael Brantley	SU	Cody Allen
CF	Michael Bourn	SU	Vinnie Pestano
RF	David Murphy	CL	John Axford
DH	Carlos Santana

Lineup

The lineup looks pretty good.  Kipnis and Santana are outstanding players.  Santana's value takes a slight hit if he can't make a successful conversion to third base and that's not looking great right now.  Of course, Santana's power and plate discipline play anywhere.  Kipnis is one of the most underrated players in the Majors.  Michael Brantley is much better than I ever thought he would be.  Nick Swisher is still a capable hitter as well. 

The rest of the lineup?  Well...it's not great.  Asdrubal Cabrera has come crashing down to Earth.  Lonnie Chisenhall doesn't seem to have the ability to hit at the MLB level.  Michael Bourn is officially on the wrong side of 30.  David Murphy and Ryan Raburn could form a decent platoon, but Murphy was brutal against all pitching last year and Raburn's 153 OPS+ was 124 points higher than his 2012 figure.  I'm guessing he's somewhere in the middle of those numbers.  If either Santana or Kipnis regress even a little, this offense could be very disappointing. 

Defense

Yan Gomes rated as a good defender last season.  Michael Bourn is solid.  Jason Kipnis gets the job done.  The rest of the defense is not great.  No one is a complete train wreck (unless you trust defensive stats, in which case you can count the flashy Asdrubal Cabrera), but no one is very good either.  If Santana transitions to third base, the defense will get even worse.  Defense will not be their calling card in 2014.

Rotation

I like their rotation, but I worry that they are relying too heavily on young, unproven guys.  Even Justin Masterson, who was excellent last season, is wildly inconsistent from year to year.  He had a 79 ERA+ in 2012 and 109 ERA+ in 2013.  His performance improved due a heavier reliance on his nasty slider and a subsequent spike in his strikeout rate.  If he can't maintain that growth, he could regress to the league-average pitcher he was for most of his career (2011 being the exception).

Corey Kluber could be great.  His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates are all right around league-average and the combination of the three at that level is very impressive.  He had a 3.85 ERA in 2013, but a 3.10 xFIP, a figure that points toward some potential upside.  Carlos Carrasco looked good prior to missing all of 2012 with injury and Danny Salazar looked dynamic last season.  Zach McAllister was solid as well.  No one mentioned in this paragraph threw more than 150 innings last season.  Their rotation has upside, but there's downside too.  There's always Shaun Marcum!   

Bullpen

Is John Axford as good as he was with the Cardinals at the end of last year, or as bad as he was with the Brewers for most of 2013 and all of 2012?  He's certainly good at picking Oscar winners, but can he still close games?  Well, if he pitches well, he can close games; it's really quite simple.  The dip in his strikeout rate is concerning, but the Indians do have the very solid Cody Allen waiting in the wings if Axford falters.  Vinnie Pestano lost his control a bit in 2013, but he was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2012.  Bryan Shaw is good.  Mark Rzepczynski gets the job done.  if Axford and/or Pestano can bounce back, the Indians could have a swell bullpen. 

World Series aspirations?

I'm sure they'd like to make the World Series, but it won't happen.  The Indians deserved their playoff spot in 2013, but they will be lucky to be in the same situation in 2014. 

Can the Twins finish ahead of them?

I think there's at least a non-zero chance.  The Indians and Twins could both finish right around 75 wins and it wouldn't surprise me.  On paper, the Indians are certainly better.  Masterson would be the Twins' best starter and Kluber might be as well.  Offensively, I think these teams could be somewhat similar.  The Twins only currently employ one offensive force (Joe Mauer) compared to the Indians' two (Kipnis and Santana).  However, the Twins have multiple players who could join Mauer, while the Indians do not really have a true breakout threat.  Defense and bullpens are close, but I slightly prefer the Twins in both instances.  If the Twins' young offensive players develop like the Indians' young offensive players did in 2013, the Twins could surpass the Indians.

Projected AL Central finish - 3rd

The Indians had a wonderful season in 2013 and even though they only played a single playoff game, it was a hugely successful turnaround.  I don't see similar fortunes in 2014.  There are too many question marks in the lineup, rotation and bullpen.  If everything breaks right, they could return to the playoffs.  Didn't everything break right in 2013?  Does that happen in consecutive years?  I don't think they crater back to the 90-loss realm, but it wouldn't shock me if they finish below .500.  

If you're interested, here is the whole lot of AL Central team previews (in projected order of finish):

Tigers
Royals
Indians
Twins
White Sox