Should we be worried about Ricky Nolasco?

The Twins made a big splash back in December, signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contract with a team option for a fifth year.  It was the largest contract the Twins had given during free agency and it marked a change in philosophy related to building a team.  The Twins were no longer going to simply rely on home-grown talent and smaller signings.  They wanted to sign a player who could lead their rotation for a couple of years while guys with more talent, but less experience ready themselves for the Majors. 

Two months into the season and Nolasco has a 6.12 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in ten starts.  He had a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 33 starts in 2013.  What happened?

Some posit that Nolasco will heat up as the weather improves.  Of course, that is just a narrative.  It was pretty nice on Sunday and he got rocked.  Nolasco pitched a gem in his third start as a Twin, throwing eight innings of one-run baseball in 50-degree temperature.  If convenient narratives won't help us figure out if we should be worried, perhaps we could look to...stats?!? 

I know, stats are for nerds.  In some cases, using these nerdy stats, we can figure out if a player is as bad as they seem.  In the case of Nolasco, there are some interesting stats that point in many different directions.  I broke them into a few categories.

Split Stats

Before we get too deep into our analysis, let me just state that Nolasco has been better in May.  Take a look at this chart that compares April and May:

	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	BABIP	LOB%	GB%
April	6.67	5.27	4.66	1.75	9.7	6.7	13.9	0.355	66.7	50.5
May	5.58	4.09	3.79	1.4	20.5	5.3	11.6	0.333	66.7	31.6
Career	4.45	3.8	3.77	1.3	19.1	5.5	10.4	0.309	68.6	41.7

He hasn't been outstanding in May, but most of the important indicator stats have improved since a pretty awful April.  That said, there are still some individual stats that will give us a better understanding of how an effective pitcher in 2013 became a volcano of misery in 2014.  Ok, that's a bit dramatic.  How about a science fair volcano of misery?

Luck Stats

Home run-to-fly ball ratio (HR/FB%) measures how frequently a fly ball becomes a home run.  Research has shown that pitchers (and batters for that matter) tend to have their own rate at which fly balls become home runs.  When the figure deviates, there's some luck at play.  Nolasco has a career mark of 10.4%, just about average in the Majors.  When that rate is four points higher than usual, it means that an extra 4% of fly balls go over the fence instead of nestling softly in a glove.  In raw numbers, we're talking about one extra home run per month, but it still makes a difference.

BABIP is another luck-based stat where a player sets their own baseline.  Nolasco's BABIP is quite out of line with his career mark.  In April it was really high and in May it's been just quite high.  Those figures aren't doing him a lot of favors, and it was especially unforgiving in April because his strikeout rate was very low and thus more balls were being put in play.  Again, the raw numbers might only get us to four or five more hits that Nolasco gave up as a result of his high BABIP, but again, every little bit counts. 

Even if these stats only account for a small amount of Nolasco's bad performance, they do matter.  These two stats point toward some bad luck for Nolasco and thus, we shouldn't worry too much.  Of course, these aren't the only stats that matter.

Skill Stats

Can someone remind me, is a giant drop in strikeout rate good or bad for a pitcher?  Without my baseball encyclopedia handy, I'll just have to assume it's a bad thing.  That ten point drop in strikeout rate could be explained a lot of different ways:  not hitting spots, trying to involve infielders, Rick Anderson is Satan, etc.  Whatever the reasons behind the drop, the drop itself was very troubling.  While Nolasco hasn't been much better in May, the return of his strikeout rate is a good sign for the future.

His walk rate has been pretty stable.  However, Nolasco has always had great ability to limit walks but it didn't always (or even frequently) translate to a great ability to limit runs.  So, we can be pleased about his walk rate, but it hasn't been a great indicator of his success in the past either.  Bummer.

These skill-based stats explain a lot in April.  Nolasco's ability to strike out batters almost completely vanished in April.  It was almost as if he was being threatened by Kevin Correia or something.  When the rate returned in May, he was better, although the luck-based stats were still not in his favor.  Again, these things appear to be positive going forward.  Although, there are a few more stats to look at. 

Shoulder Shrug Stats

LOB% or left on-base percentage (I call it strand rate just for further confusion) is a stat that calculates the percentage of baserunners left on base by the pitcher.  This is another stat that has an individual baseline.  Nolasco's strand rate is lower than his career figure, but not by much.  The discrepancy may account for some of his struggles, but not much.  The shoulder shrug comes in when you look at his career figure compared to the typical league average, which usually comes in around 73-74%.  Why does Nolasco strand runners so poorly?  Who knows, but I doubt he figures it out at this stage of his career.    

Nolasco's ground ball rate is all over the place, so who knows what to think so far.  His season figure is in line with his career rate, but his career rate isn't all that great.  He had seen his ground ball rate rise to respectable territory from 2010-2012, but it has dropped back down in the past two seasons.  I don't think the Twins can rely on Nolasco to be a ground ball specialist at this point.  That said, with a decent defense behind him, a fly ball pitcher can have success.  Do the Twins have a decent outfield defense?  Well, come on, you know the answer to that.

xFIP or expected fielder-independent pitching is a great way to look at how a pitcher would have performed if we lived in a perfect world where ballparks and home runs were normalized and puppies and kitties flowed out of water faucets but we still had access to water in other ways.  Nolasco's xFIP looks great, as it always does, but that hasn't really helped Nolasco in the actual performance department.  If the Twins thought this would be different in Minnesota, I have a water faucet to sell them.  Shoulder shrug. 

Finally, there doesn't appear to be anything related to his repertoire that is hurting his performance.  His velocity is right in line with the past couple seasons and he's not throwing anything too much more or less than he threw it before.  His stuff is the same but his results have been poor.  I guess that, more than anything, is a reason to be optimistic. 

Conclusion 

Of course, this all falls into the small sample size realm where we aren't allowed to draw any conclusions ever.  However, these stats all exist and while they don't really tell us anything going forward, they can explain why things happened the way they did.

His strikeout and walk rates are more in line with his career average, but his ground ball rate, home run-to-fly ball rate and BABIP are out of line.  This could explain some of the discrepancy between his April/May and career ERAs.  While no single stat explained a huge portion of his struggles, when you add up all the little bits, it kind of starts to make sense.  Think of it this way.  If someone gave me just one slice of pizza, it would barely fill me up.  If I had six slices of pizza, I'd be comatose on the couch with sauce on my face and my shirt off.  Ricky Nolasco is dealing with the equivalent of six slices of pizza.  Think about it.

I'm not sure Nolasco will ever be worth the contract he was given, but I feel pretty confident that he will perform better going forward than he has thus far.  But then, I live in a puppy/kitty faucet, shirtless, covered in pizza sauce kind of world.    

Monday Morning Madness: May 20, 2013

Weekend Recap

Welp.  The Twins weren't really supposed to be good or even decent this season, so a 2-7 homestand isn't crazy.  It's more disappointing, after what seemed like a such a positive start.  Regardless, this franchise is clearly trending upward, even if this past week doesn't reflect that. 

The thing that struck me the most from the weekend was another shaky Scott Diamond start.  I did a detailed breakdown of Diamond's 2012 and concluded that 2012 Scott Diamond was a good pitcher and if he can replicate what he did in 2012, he could have long-term success.  You can read it here, if you missed it back in February. 

I looked at Diamond's stats from the first half of 2012 (when Diamond was a borderline Ace), the second half of 2012 (when Diamond was good, but not great), and the start of this season (when Diamond looks like he might be regressing).  What is different?  Here's a chart with Diamond's peripherals:

	K%	BB%	LOB%	GB%	LD%	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9	BABIP	xFIP	ERA
2012 1st Half	13.9	3.7	79.3	59	20.3	20.7	14.8	0.91	0.285	3.57	2.61
2012 2nd Half	11.6	4.9	68.6	48.9	21.5	29.6	9.5	0.86	0.298	4.23	4.31
2013	9.8	5.5	70.6	47.4	19.7	32.8	13.3	1.36	0.318	4.62	4.99
League Avg (2012)	19.8	8	72.5	45.1	20.9	34	11.3	1.02	0.293	4.01	4.01

2013 Scott Diamond has looked a lot more like the 2012 second half Scott Diamond.  He's getting fewer ground balls, and more of his fly balls are going over the fence.  His walk rate is ticking upward and his strikeout rate is ticking downward.   These numbers need to start reversing, or Diamond will have a very difficult time replicating his 2012 success. 

I looked at some PitchF/x data as well.  The samples are small, so there isn't much significance.  However, some trends are evident.  Looking at this chart, it appears that his curveball is as good as ever:

CB	O-Swing%	O-Contact%	SwStr%
2012	48.2	52.4	15.2
2013	46.7	48.6	15
Average (2012)	29	63.8	9.1

Batters still swing at a very high percentage of his curve outside the zone and they still make little contact.  In addition, they swing through many of these pitches for strikes.  That's good!  However, this chart shows there are other concerns with the curve:

CB	LD%	FB%	HR/FB%
2012	24.8	27.4	11.6
2013	19.4	35.5	36.4

Mainly, batters are hitting more curves in the air and many more over the fence.  That's bad!  It's still early, but not a great sign so far.  Let's look at his change:

CH	Contact%	Zone%	SwStr%
2012	79.6	38.2	9.9
2013	90.6	46.4	4.4
Average (2012)	79.7	44.9	9.1

His change was a pretty average pitch last year, but as his third pitch, it worked.  This season, players are making better contact and rarely missing that pitch.  He's throwing it in the zone more, and it's getting hit more.  Not a great combo.  Finally, here's a very small chart regarding his fastball:

FB	GB%
2012	56.5
2013	48.3

Basically, the decline of Diamond's ground ball rate can be almost fully correlated to the decreasing percentage of ground balls Diamond has coaxed with his fastball.  If you add it all up, Diamond has basically been this pitcher in 2013:  A league-average ground ball pitcher, with low strikeout totals and a good walk rate.  In 2012, Diamond was a ground ball pitcher with low strikeout totals and an elite walk rate.  These aren't major differences, but enough to turn a good pitcher into a shaky pitcher. 

All that being said, it is still very early and I won't be convinced that Diamond is a different pitcher until at least a full season passes. 

Analysis!  Now on to the Madness:

Random Paint Image

I choose to remember this Scott Diamond, being ceremoniously carried off the field by his teammates after a series of spectacular starts. 

Random Plug/Former Twin Update - Randy Ruiz

Ben Noble of Puckett's Pond posted a feature on a former Twin.  I fondly remember Randy Ruiz and hopefully you do too.  Plus, Ben's a really good dude and a great writer.  If you remember Randy Ruiz as fondly as I do, you should check it out. 

Random Photoshop

Byron Buxton hit a walk-off Grand Slam on Wednesday night.  It was a bomb.  Buxton has basically become the "next big thing" and fans are starting to clamor for Buxton's debut sooner than later.  I don't know anything about his realistic ETA, but I do know that Nikola Pekovic of the Minnesota Timberwolves was clearly impressed, as he updated his crazy tattoo after he heard about Buxton's feat:

Good gravy, that tattoo is crazy.

Answering a random question from the Twins' Facebook page:

Q:  Best movie ever...where is The Beast?

For context, this question was posted in reference to a picture of "Squints" and "Ham" from The Sandlot. 

A:  The Beast probably died 10-15 years ago.  A dog of that size likely had a lifespan of about 8-10 years. The dog was likely at least 2 or 3 when the movie was filmed and the movie is now 20 years old.  Thanks for asking though, it's a super uplifting topic to discuss. 

While on the topic of The Sandlot, how come only two of the actors were present for this weekend?  What are any of those guys doing right now?  Shouldn't the Twins have been able to get 5 or 6 of those guys, at minimum.  I bet if you give them free airfare, 20 bucks, and the chance to talk to people who think they're cool, they'd all be there.  Typical cheap Twins, slashing payroll and stiffing Sandlot actors.  Embarrassing. 

Random Top 12 List

Here are the Twins' leaders in wRC+ for the month of May (as of 5/19/2013):

1. Joe Mauer - 228
2. Oswaldo Arcia - 132
3. Trevor Plouffe - 123
4. Justin Morneau - 123
5. Jamey Carroll - 115
6. Pedro Florimon - 112
7. Ryan Doumit - 108
8. Aaron Hicks - 89
9. Chris Parmelee - 74
10. Eduardo Escobar - 55
11. Josh Willingham - 55
12. Brian Dozier - 19

Something I wrote

I have been recapping the last 25 Twins drafts.  If you missed them, here are a whole mess of links: 

1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995

Check back each day for a new draft!

Something stupid I wrote

I'm not sure this even qualifies as writing, but it is stupid.  What is Oswaldo Arcia doing with his arms?  I have 13 theories, and a bonus Paint image to boot.  Also, I did start a Facebook group for some reason.  There are six likes, which is five more than I expected.  If you are interested, you can find and like it here. 

Haiku

The Twins may be down
I refuse to frown or drown
Haiku should not rhyme

Have a nice week everyone!

Shamelessly Exploiting Kevin Correia's Hot Start for Pageviews

Do you like meaningless stats?  Do you enjoy cherry-picking?  How about fallacy?

Are you enamored with Kevin Correia and his shockingly awesome start to this season?

Do you like being asked questions?

I thought it might be fun to look at Kevin Correia's stats, with an eye toward history and multiplication.  If you think that sounds fun as well, please keep reading. 

Pro-rated stats

The Twins have played 22 games this season.  Correia has started five games and stands to start about 28 more (give or take, depending on whether the Twins move to a one-man rotation or something bizarre like that). 

Wait, let's explore that.  If the Twins decided, "hey, let's see if we can't make Kevin Correia's arm explode" and allowed him to become the full-time starting pitcher, he would get 140 more starts.  Right now, he is winning three of every five starts and losing once in five.  This would be his record if those numbers held (which I am pretty sure they would):

87-29

Hmm, that's an awful lot of losses.  He would probably lead the league.  Here is how many strikeouts he would have, averaging 15 for every 5 starts:

435

That's a lot.  However, that would be over roughly 1050 innings, and thus not very impressive but really impressive. Nolan Ryan struck out a modern record 383 batters in 1973, and did so in 700 fewer innings.  Not nearly the workhorse Correia could become under this scenario though.

Ok, this is just not realistic.  I mean, if any team is going to a one-man rotation, wouldn't the Twins be the last team you would expect?  Let's try to be normal here.

If Correia keeps this pace and gets 28 more starts, here will be his final numbers on the season:

9.9 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR (THATS A JOKE DO YOU GET IT?) 240 IP, 20-6, 2.23 ERA, 225 hits allowed, 59 ER, 33 BB, 99 K, 0 balks, 0 wild pitches and 0 hit-by-pitch.

I'm quite certain that FanGraphs.com would 404 as well.

Find players with crazy rate stats like Correia's

Pro-rating stats is easy. It's basically multiplication, which any eight-year-old can do.  Six-year-olds?  Not so much, but six-year-olds lack in a lot of areas, if we are going to honest with ourselves.    

Using Baseball Reference's season finder, we can pinpoint just how many pitchers have stats like Correia's and how they compare.  I'll start with his rate stats, which currently sit as such:

• SO/9 - 3.7
• BB/9 - 1.2
• HR/9 - 0.5
• H/9 - 8.4

14 pitchers have posted a season with those stats, since 1901.  It hasn't been done since 1942 which simply means that Correia is a throwback.  Tiny Bonham, Babe Adams, Slim Sallee, and Noodles Hahn have the most ridiculous names from the list.  Oh, and Al Orth.

So, it's rare.  I am sure many pitchers have put up comparable stats over 36 innings though.  Correia's walk rate alone is masterful.  I wonder how many pitchers have had a walk rate that low for a full season...

93 is that number, most recently Cliff Lee just last season.  Brad Radke did it four times and Carlos Silva once, for a nice 4:1 Brad to Carlos ratio.  The highest season ERA on this list is Radke's 4.49 back in 2003.  

The best ERA from someone who didn't pitch when all people who were photographed looked surprised that their photo was being taken even though you had to sit for like, a really long time, is Greg Maddux, when he posted a 1.63 ERA back in 1995. 

On the flip side, Correia's strikeout rate is quite low.  Historically low, one might say less than confidently. 

It's not really that historic.  Actually, it has happened 2,237 times since 1901.  Rather than be thorough and comb through the data, let's cherry-pick, as you all tacitly agreed that you enjoyed it.  Since 1961, this feat has been accomplished 261 times, which is much more manageable for me. 

The worst ERA of that group belongs to Livan Hernandez, who posted a 6.05 ERA in 2008, at the age of 67.  Carlos Silva was second, at 5.94 back in 2006.  The best ERA of this bunch belongs to Joe Horlen, with a 2.06 ERA back in 1967.  Correia's current ERA would be the 4th best since 1961 with a strikeout rate as low as 3.7 per nine innings.

Since 1961, only five names appear on both lists, and one is a 2005 Carlos Silva, which has an oak-y finish. 

Correia currently has a 179 ERA+.  This number is astronomical.  Just how astronomical?  Well, only 68 pitchers have posted such an astronomical number since 1901.  Just glancing at the list, Randy Johnson did it 58 times and Pedro Martinez did it 57.  I could be counting poorly, as I was hit in the nose with a dodgeball while putting eye drops in.  Regardless, if Correia can keep up that number, he will join some elite, blurry company.   

Other Fun Facts/Miscellany

• Correia is currently tied for 100th in the MLB in strikeouts.  Anibal Sanchez struck out 17 in one game.
• Correia is tied for 7th in fewest walks, just ahead of Kevin Slowey.
• Correia is 20th in ERA, just ahead of Kevin Slowey.
• If you rearrange the letters in Kevin Correia, you get Cevin Korreia. 
• Kevin Correia's fastball sits at about 90, or roughly 20 MPH faster than you can throw (probably more or even a lot more).
• Joe Mauer is his catcher (I think), so that probably explains everything.
• Correia was a Giant, then a Padre, then a Pirate, now a Twin, always a shapeshifter.
• Correia's GB% is 45.8%, which makes him a fly ball pitcher, no matter what Beck Bremleven tries to tell you.
• The proudest I have ever been of an analogy is from my Correia signing post.  See if you can find it!

Sumitup

Kevin Correia is pitching better than anyone expected.  Anyone.  If someone tries to tell you that they envisioned this level of performance, you have my permission to tie their shoes together, but only as a lesson.  Please draw their attention to the tied together laces and explain to them the lesson you have taught them.  I mean it, no one needs to get hurt just because they are a filthy liar.  His numbers are fun to look at because they are so unexpected.  I look forward to seeing what craziness his numbers will bring in the future.

Seriously, no one make anyone trip on their laces.

Exposing a Hidden Hall of Fame Player?

Earlier this week, I wrote about Joe Mauer and his Hall of Fame career.  I was really taken by just how well Mauer stacks up against catchers throughout history, players from this era and Hall of Famers in general.  If you didn't read it, you can find it here.  If you did read it, you can find it there too, but you probably shouldn't read it again.  Read this instead.  I thought, well, this is probably an exercise that I could complete for a lot of players, to see if anyone's greatness is being overlooked.

Using Baseball Reference's amazing play reference, I shall set out on a journey to find an overlooked player and rightfully adjust everyone's attitudes on his playing career.  If I can truly change the minds of the masses, then I will become the most powerful baseball blog-guy of all time.  If I can do this successfully, my legacy will be cemented right next to that DIPS guy and whoever invented OPS.  This is my one chance, and I cannot blow it.  History awaits.  Now, to pick the perfect candidate...

Alexi Casilla seems like a good choice.

Here are some Sexi Lexi facts:

•          Casilla is a middle infielder
•          Casilla debuted in 2006 at age 22
•          Casilla is 28 and in his eighth season
•          Casilla is not a power hitter
•          Casilla is not a good hitter
•          Casilla's has two skills - baserunning (?) and throwing the ball while completely parallel to the ground
•          Casilla has played exactly 500 games in his career.  Round!

How does Casilla compare to his contemporaries in the middle infield?  Casilla has had 1794 plate appearances in his career.  Between 1988 and 2912, there are 121 middle infielders with roughly that many or more plate appearances.  Casilla ranks 100th in OPS+, right ahead of Pat Meares.  We are not off to a good start here.  He's 114th in home runs, 116th in RBI, 119th in hits, 94th in OBP, 104th in slugging percentage and 98th in batting average.

This isn't going well.

Well, this isn't Casilla's game.  He's not a hitter, he's a speed guy!  I'm guessing he'll be great in the speedy categories like doubles (114th), triples (95th), stolen bases (59th), and runs (114th).  Hmm.  He does have the second fewest at bats on this list, so it's pretty obvious that he just needs a chance to hit more, right?

Is it possible that Casilla just stacks up better against everyone?  Perhaps his skills do not compare favorably to other speedy infielders, but will look shockingly tremendous against plodding corner infielders and stupid outfielders.  Let's see how Casilla ranks within a different sample: 

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1961 to 2012, Played 85% of games at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF or DH, (requiring At least 1750 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+:

Casilla ranks 1209 out of 1331 players.  Crud.

Oh oh, maybe stolen bases!

Casilla ranks 498 out of 1331 players.  Blast, then crud.

So what?  Casilla's young.  I bet a lot of guys started their careers as bad hitters who offered little on the bases because you can't steal first and got hurt a lot or was just benched due to better options.  The only way to know for certain is to check Casilla against other Hall of Famers, during their first eight seasons.  Let's see how good they were before they hit their stride.    There were 123 players in this sample:

•          Batting Average - 3rd from last - ahead of Ozzie Smith!
•          OBP - 10th from last  - ahead of Ozzie Smith and Robin Yount!
•          OPS+ - Last :(
•          OPS - 3rd from last - ahead of Ozzie Smith!  Was Ozzie Smith good?
•          Fewest Strikeouts - 36th! - although in a LOT fewer at bats
•          Walks - Last, but not that far behind Brooks Robinson and Roberto Clemente!
•          Hits - Last, but strangely only 65 fewer than Harmon Killebrew
•          Doubles - 2nd from last, ahead of Killebrew, although Killebrew played like no games in his first five seasons...
•          Runs - Very last
•          RBI - Super Last
•          Home Runs - 4th from last, somehow
•          Games played - 2nd last, 12 more than Killebrew
•          WAR - Last, comically so

Ok, so maybe Casilla was comparable to Smith, who still had about a 28 WAR advantage on Lexi.  Killebrew was three years younger when he debuted, so he gets a pass.  Although, I'm not ruling out Casilla hitting over 500 home runs now.

Perhaps jumping to Hall of Famers was a bit premature.  This really means nothing, when you think about it the exact way I am.  Perhaps Casilla is a late bloomer.  I bet lots of guys were.  We need a more apt comparison to his current self, with the understanding that he is going to definitely explode as a player within the next few seasons.

It stands to reason that if Casilla is working on a Hall of Fame career, his first eight seasons will compare favorably to other middle infielders after eight seasons.  Most of the time, Hall of Famers are judged against their positional counterparts.  When Casilla has his mid-career explosion, he will surpass his peers and cement his legacy.  That makes perfect sense.  Lots of prominent players will be low on this list, I bet.  Alexi must be better than some notable players.  So, let's find out!  I am very optimistic. 

(Redacted)

Look, I don't see why I need to include these stats at all.  He's pretty much last in every counting stat and nearly last in all the rate stats.  So what?  Stats aren't everything.  There's the eye test too, you know. Plus, I thought RBI didn't matter and batting average was all luck.  What really matters is that Alexi has heart and hustle.  He also has a pretty nice smile and I just don't feel you are respecting that.  Respect his smile!

You know, I'm not sure why I am even bothering with this anymore.  I've clearly failed and will have to wait for another chance to establish myself in the realm of good blog-guys.  Maybe when I write about 1987 Topps baseball cards later this week, no one ever does stuff like that.  However, I do present to you one final stat, and a stat that no one can argue with.  If this doesn't at least get you partially on my side, I'm not sure what will.  In fact, I'll feel sorry for you.  I said it.  I even put it in a chart for the real stat-heads.

Rank	Player	Balls Thrown While Horizontal for outs
1	Alexi Casilla	I think like 2
tie-2	Everyone Else	Probably zero