Mondayne Notes -
8/20/2012
The Mondayne Notes
will be posted either late Sunday night or on Monday. They are best accompanied by this specific version of "Spinning in Daffodils" by Them Crooked Vultures.
The Games
Monday - Win over
Detroit - 9-3
Samuel Deduno walked fewer than he struck out. Ryan Doumit hit a late bomb to put it away.
Tuesday - Loss to
Detroit - 8-4
The Twins scored 4 unearned runs in the 3rd inning, but Doug
Fister pretty much shut them down the rest of the way. If anything will keep the Tigers from success
in the regular season and postseason, it will definitely be their infield
defense.
Wednesday - Loss to
Detroit - 5-1
Cole DeVries was pretty inefficient and Max Scherzer
basically dominated the Twins with 10 strikeouts.
Thursday - Off Day
Friday - Loss to
Seattle - 5-3
A late pair of solo home runs by Joe Mauer and Josh
Willingham were not enough as Nick Blackburn gave up 3 runs in the first 2
innings and his season ERA jumped up to 7.39.
Saturday - Loss to
Seattle - 3-2
In a wonderful demonstration of how overrated wins and
losses are for pitchers, Casey Fein gets the loss by facing one batter and
getting him out. He inherited a based
loaded, no outs situation. He got a
sacrifice fly to shallow center, but deep enough to score the run. He also got the loss for that. On the other side, Tom Wilhelmsen faced one
batter and got the win. He also got his
batter out.
Sunday - Loss to
Seattle - 5-1
The game was close until Jeff Gray came in and showed us all
how to win. Deduno had a "quality
start" and also walked 6 more batters.
His walk rate is almost historically high and I am planning to
investigate just how high sometime in the future. Ben Revere did return to the lineup after
missing the previous two games.
Week in Review
Not a great week. The
Monday night game was fun, but the Twins' offense was not great the rest of the
week. They scored 9 runs on Monday and
then 10 runs the rest of the week.
Unfortunately, they cannot win games without getting good or better
offense. Sam Deduno and Scott Diamond
had good results in their 3 combined starts, but the rest of the starting
pitching dug holes for the team in the early innings. Deduno walked 11 guys in his 2 starts and had
4 double plays turned behind him. There
are about 5 reasons (high strand rate, low strikeout rate, high walk rate, low
BABIP, lack of any sort of track record) I can think of that point toward some
major regression from Deduno, but it is hard to argue with the results right
now. I am not a Nick Blackburn fan at
all, but I am honestly starting to feel a bit sorry for him and I hope he has a
couple lucky starts in a row because he isn't going to get good results based
on his talent anymore. Pedro Florimon
made his Twins debut and made some nice plays on deep pop-ups behind
short.
The Transactions
8/13 - Trevor Plouffe
activated, Nishioka send to AAA
The Plouffe is no longer on fire. I still like him though, and think he can be
a cheap third baseman for the next couple years. Nishioka going back to AAA is probably the
best thing for him. Each MLB game he
plays is just more and more embarrassing for him. I honestly hope the Twins buy him out and let
him go back to Japan. That is likely the
best situation for all sides.
8/15 - Brian Dozier to
AAA, Pedro Florimon called up
This one surprised me.
Florimon is not a prospect, so there is nothing to get too excited about
with him. I am not super high on Dozier,
but I am hopeful he can get some confidence back in AAA. I refuse to believe that there isn't a
psychological element of baseball, as that would make it completely unique to
all other human activities. He seems
like the type that could have some good gap power and he isn't a terrible
fielder. Long term, a move to 2B might
be best for him though. He really
doesn't have much AAA experience, so this time could be helpful. He'll be back in September regardless.
8/16 - Luis Perdomo to
AAA, Jeff Manship to AAA
Meh and Meh. Perdomo
had a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings, but only 3 strikeouts to 7 walks. Sam Deduno would scoff at that ratio. Manship is just a guy. You can use him as a mop up guy when down by
10 runs. Otherwise, he actually hurts
the team.
8/17 - Activated
Anthony Swarzak, Called up Matt Carson, Outrighted Rene Tosoni
Carson isn't a prospect, but can be on the bench if needed
without hurting his development. While
many would have liked Parmelee to be called up, it would be wasteful, unless he
was going to play every day. His call-up
in June/July pretty much proved that will not happen.
Tosoni was awful in AA and AAA and with the surprising glut
of outfield prospects that the Twins have now (Arcia, Hicks, Rosario and even
Benson), they really just don't need a 26 year old corner-only outfielder who
really didn't show that he could hit, run, get on base, or even field last
year. He seemed like a nice guy though.
Swarzak is a semi-useful pitcher as a long man out of the
bullpen and spot starter. If nothing
else, having a guy like Swarzak should allow the Twins to eventually cut the
number of pitchers on the 25 man roster down to a reasonable number (long term
of course, this year doesn't really matter much).
The Injuries
Scott Baker - out for
season
It seems that he is throwing more often. I am an advocate for signing him next
year. He would likely be the ace of the
staff, unfortunately. I mean that in the
nicest way possible, as I do like Scott Baker.
But, a number 3 starter coming off of TJ surgery is not a very exciting
ace.
Matt Capps - 15 day DL
It sounds like he might be out until September. It is possible that he has pitched his last
game for the Twins. Which is sad because
we never got to give him the standing ovation he deserved as he walked off of
Target Field for the last time. We might
just have to settle for serenading him with cheers when he comes back next year
with another team.
Carl Pavano - 60 day
DL
Another guy who might not pitch for the Twins again,
although he is likely to return late August.
I wonder if he will even get a Jason Marquis type deal for next
year.
Ben Revere - day to
day
Revere sprained his ankle on first base during Wednesday's
game. He stayed in the game, but the
play looked pretty nasty. It must have
been, as he missed the next couple games.
He was back today and should be fine going forward.
Denard Span - day to
day
Span last played on August 12, meaning he has missed over a
week now. He can be put on the DL
retroactively, but that doesn't really change the fact that this type of injury
situation is all too common for the Twins.
While it really doesn't mean a whole lot in a lost season, it is the
type of situation you want to have fixed by the time the team is successful
again. Having a two man bench of Drew
Butera and Tsuyoshi Nishioka during an August pennant race is means for being
disqualified from the playoffs out of principle.
P.J. Walters - 15 day
DL
Currently pitching rehab starts in AAA. I guess it would be good to see what he has
in September, just to see if he can be a stopgap starter in 2013.
The Standings
Team
|
Win Loss
|
Games Back
|
Last 10
|
Houston
|
39-83
|
--
|
3-7
|
Colorado
|
46-73
|
8.5
|
6-4
|
Chicago Cubs
|
47-73
|
9
|
3-7
|
Twins
|
50-70
|
12
|
1-9
|
San Diego
|
53-70
|
13.5
|
4-6
|
Cleveland
|
54-67
|
15.5
|
3-7
|
Milwaukee
|
54-66
|
16
|
3-7
|
Some are not going to like how I display the standings, but
realistically, the best way to look at this season is from the bottom up. The worse the Twins' record at the end of the
year, the better it is for the future.
There isn't a bonus for finishing in 3rd place or getting to .500. But, finishing in the bottom five means a
better draft pick, and more importantly, more draft money. Under the new system, you can get double
punished for winning games you shouldn't or don't need to win. I am working on a column about losing with
dignity that I will have up in a couple weeks.
The team doesn't have to tank to lose, but there are ways improve your
draft standing while still keeping the team interesting. It might not matter much, as the Twins are
the worst of these listed teams over the past 10 games.
The Future
Jose Berrios struck out 11 batters in 5 innings on Friday
night. Berrios is only 18 years old and
was quickly promoted to high Rookie ball in Elizabethton. Berrios is fairly short for a pitcher (listed
at 6' 1"), but does have good life on his fastball and is not the Twins'
typical soft-tossing strike-thrower.
According to ESPN's scouting page, Berrios might be a bullpen arm
long-term or his three pitch arsenal of fastball, curve and change could help
him stay in the rotation. Regardless,
getting this guy with the first pick in the 1st supplemental round was a
demonstration that the Twins are serious about drafting and developing some
power arms with upside.
The Big Picture
This past year, the Twins drafted quite a few relievers that
throw hard, in the hopes that they can turn a few into starters. Berrios is obviously one of them. To me, this is a great strategy, as these
pitchers are talented enough to profile as good bullpen arms regardless of
whether they can develop new pitches in the minors. Young relievers can be extremely valuable, as
they save the club from spending too much on veteran relievers and give
flexibility to the club to allocate their resources to other parts of the
team. A young, talented, team-controlled
and hard-throwing bullpen sounds to me like a winning formula.
Fantasy Tip of the
Week
Use total bases in place of home runs. Home runs are fun, but so are triples and
doubles. Plus, I find the higher the
numbers, the more fun the category is.
Total bases still give a bonus for home runs, but adds other extra base
hits to the party.
Have a great week everyone!
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