The Twins are far from contending. It really is the sad reality. As much as we may think that adding two
starting pitchers to the roster for 2013 will make the Twins contend, the
reality is that 2 high quality starting pitchers added to this year's roster
might have lead to a .500 finish. .500
teams are worthless in my mind. You
either want to make the playoffs or rebuild, but you don't want to be in the
middle. Middling teams usually do not
compete for the playoffs and have difficulties drafting and developing high-end
talent.
The one caveat is that the Central is a weak division and a
.500 team might be close to a playoff spot.
We all know from history that a Central Division Championship is nice,
but not a predictor of Twins' success in the playoffs. In my mind, a few years of rebuilding can
really replenish the farm system and lead to a bright future. The tradeoff is an unpleasant present. However, reality is reality. Perhaps the Twins can have a Baltimore
Orioles type success next year, but I doubt that would lead to the World
Series. A long term plan is needed. I am
going to look at the players on the current 40 man roster, to see who could
help a contending Twins team (likely in 2014 at the earliest). There are a variety of factors to consider,
but each player will be analyzed based more on their future value than their
current value. While a playoff spot in
2014 is certainly possible, 2015 or 2016 seems a lot more reasonable.
Let's start from the bottom:
Drew Butera - Catcher
No
Matt Carson -
Outfielder
Carson is a 31-year-old outfielder with about 50 games of
MLB experience. He is not a piece to the
puzzle and he is not a piece to any team's puzzle. The fact that he made it back to the big leagues
is a cool story, but that is about all it is.
Alexi Casilla -
Infielder
Casilla has been a useful player over the past few
years. Ok, useful might be a stretch,
but a guy who can play both middle infield positions well is pretty
useful. He really can't hit at all, but
he is fun to watch. He has some
charisma, but that doesn't really help a lot on the field. I have enjoyed watching Casilla play the
infield these past few years, but I don't think he will be in Minnesota next
year. A good team would maybe use him as
a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner, and nothing more.
Oswaldo Arcia -
Outfielder
The future looks bright for Arcia. He is a great hitter, and his AA stats are
pretty impressive. He isn't much of a
fielder, and he might have to move to left field, as his arm is not right field
quality. The way he is hitting in AA and
the fact that he is already on the 40 man roster, could combine to get him to
the Twins' active roster in September at the young age of 21. If Denard Span needs rest, he could easily
get some playing time in right field with Ben Revere moving to center. He likely will not be a full-time regular
until 2014, but he might be a bit of a Jason Kubel (at his peak) type player
down the line, and that type of player can definitely contribute on a future
playoff team.
Joe Benson -
Outfielder
Benson did not leave a good taste in fans' mouths last
September and his struggles continued throughout this year in the minors. He strikes out a ton. He likely always will. However, a strikeout is the same as a ground
out, fly out, line out, pop out, and any other kind of out in the box
score. If he can be productive around
the strikeouts, he has a lot of potential value. He runs well, fields well, throws well and
has power. Put it this way, he could be
what Trevor Plouffe is right now, with the added defensive and speed values. Benson has a right field arm and potential 20
home run/20 steal ability. He is still
pretty young and I think he can contribute.
Personally, I hope the Twins can
fit him in the lineup next year, regardless of his struggles in 2012. I would not give up on this player just yet.
Eduardo Escobar -
Infielder
Escobar was acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade back in
July. He is already 23 years old, and is
likely a utility man at best. According
to what I have read, he is a very good fielder. He is also versatile enough to play second,
third and short. He could be a better
version of Nick Punto, if he hits. As
much as Punto was disliked in Minnesota, his type of player does have some
value off the bench.
Pedro Florimon -
Infielder
Florimon has a pretty similar skill set compared with
Escobar. He is a skilled fielder, but
not an accomplished minor league hitter.
He could also be a utility player, but likely not one with as much value
as Escobar. I don't think he can
contribute to a playoff team.
Brian Dozier -
Infielder
I am not a huge Dozier fan.
He will be 26 for most of next year, and he didn't really impress while
in Minnesota. He didn't hit enough to be
valuable, especially when you consider that his defense needs work. As unexciting as Escobar might be, his glove
makes his shortcomings with the bat a bit more tolerable. Dozier hasn't shown enough in the field or at
the plate, and he is 2 years older. Some
have compared him to Jamey Carroll, but he doesn't walk nearly enough for that
to be an accurate comparison.
Jamey Carroll -
Infielder
More than 10 percent of the Twins' current 40 man roster
consists of utility players. Not all
utility players are created the same way.
Carroll is a very valuable utility player. He can play second, short and third in a
pinch. He gets on base enough to make up
for his lack of power. He is old. I would not be surprised if he was retired
the next time the Twins are contending.
Darin Mastroianni -
Outfielder
Mastroianni is exactly the type of player that when used
properly, has good value, but might be just good enough to earn more playing
time and become an issue. I know that
might not make sense, but to me, Mastroianni is a good 4th outfielder. When he becomes a regular, he looks a lot
less impressive. He clearly has the
glove for any outfield position and he gets on base enough to be valuable. However, he also appears to be a
"gamer" and that worries me.
Gardenhire likes his gamers and a guy like Mastroianni may earn more
playing time on that basis. If he works
hard and plays well, he certainly deserves that opportunity. I just prefer to have players in positions
that best emphasize their skill sets.
So, in summary, 4th outfielder Darin Mastroianni good, starting
outfielder Darin Mastroianni bad.
Outfield is actually a position of strength here in Minnesota in the
present. Looking to the future, I hope
there is never a situation where a guy like Joe Benson or Aaron Hicks is
blocked by Mastroianni. Then again, Matt
Carson was getting starts over him the last week, so maybe Gardy doesn't like
Mastroianni as much as I thought he would.
Chris Parmelee - 1st
Base/Outfield?
I'm not sure Chris Parmelee should play the outfield on a
contending team. I am also not sure he
can be productive enough with the bat to play first base on a contending
team. He is down in AAA earning the
right for everyone to find out. If the
power translates, like Trevor Plouffe's AAA power surge in 2011, then he could
be valuable. He isn't likely to hit 30
bombs in the Majors, but 20 could be possible.
If he can draw walks and mix in some doubles, he could contribute at
first base. A player like that, under
team control and cheap, can really contribute.
Spending a million or so on a starting first baseman can free up a lot
of money to spend in other places.
Pitching comes to mind, but that is a story for next week.
Ben Revere -
Outfielder
It is almost hard not to think of Juan Pierre when I think
of Ben Revere. Both have tons of speed,
good contact, no power whatsoever, great range in the outfield and no arm. This type of player is very dependent on
stolen bases and batting average.
Research shows that batting average can vary significantly from year to
year. Without a .300 batting average,
Revere is not a player that can help a good team. That is my worry. He makes contact so well and he is so fast,
that he could defy variance and be productive for years. Realistically, he might be best served as a
4th outfielder. I will say, he is
extremely fun to watch in the outfield and that provides some visual value for
fans during down years.
Trevor Plouffe - 3rd Base
If Plouffe could just throw, the Twins would have an
extremely valuable shortstop. At third,
he still can contribute. The power surge
in June/July was likely somewhat lucky.
His home run to fly ball ratio was very high, but that doesn't take the home
runs off the board. If he can provide an
.800 or so OPS and can continue to make the throw from third base, he can be
valuable in the same way as Chris Parmelee.
He will be cheap and under team control for awhile. Corner infielders with average to good power
have value and can help on a playoff team.
Ryan Doumit -
Catcher/Outfielder
In many ways, Doumit is a perfect backup catcher for this
team. The fact that he could catch 4-5
times per week and put up good numbers, gives him the versatility to move to
corner outfield positions and not look out of place offensively. Catchers simply cannot play every day behind
the plate, but having a good offensive player like Doumit to replace Joe Mauer
a few days a week is extremely valuable.
Doumit isn't even a good fielder, regardless of where he plays, but his
bat is above average and his positional versatility makes him a good
piece. He will be 33 in 2014, so the
only way he contributes to a Twins playoff team is if they have success sooner
than expected.
Justin Morneau - 1st
Base
I don't see it.
Morneau was a very important part of the Twins' success in the
2000s. He won an MVP award and may have
won another had he not suffered a concussion in 2010. His season in 2012 has started to look good,
but the looming head issues are a concern.
In addition, he will be 32 years old next year. With Chris Parmelee seemingly ready for a
shot and making more than 10 million dollars less in salary, I wouldn't be
surprised if Morneau's healthy season earns him a ticket to another team. I hope he can contribute to another team's
success, as he has been a player I have enjoyed watching over the years.
Denard Span - Center
Field
I heard Span on the radio and the host asked him who the
most underrated player on the Twins is.
He said Jamey Carroll, but the correct answer would have been given had
he said "me." Span is a player
that it took me a while to warm up to. I
focused too much on what he couldn't do (power, arm) and didn't see all the
good things that he can do (hit, get on base, range in the outfield). His base running is not great, but he doesn't
need to steal bases to have value. He
gets on base at an above-average rate, he plays a good center field, and he has
started to hit a lot of doubles this season.
He is a legitimate leadoff hitter and his healthy (head-wise) season is
very encouraging. All that being said, if
the Twins can trade him for legitimate pitching prospects, I would do
that. You can't just sign quality
pitching prospects as free agents. You
have to give something to get something.
However, iIf Span can't fetch a good return, I wouldn't trade him right
now. Down the line, if the outfield
prospects (Arcia, Benson, Hicks) develop, you might trade him just because
there are equally attractive options. Right
now, he is still the best all-around outfielder in the organization.
Josh Willingham -
Left Field
Josh Willingham is having a wonderful season. He is getting on base and hitting for a ton
of power. He might have been the best
free agent signing off the offseason in all of baseball. His contract is reasonable and he is signed
at that reasonable rate for two more years.
In addition, he replaced Michael Cuddyer, which earns him a special
place in my heart. On the other hand, Josh
Willingham is a terrible outfielder. He
can only play left field, which is unique, but not cool. He has very little range and his arm isn't
great. He is 33 years old, but if he
stays healthy, there is no reason he can't put up similar offensive numbers for
the next two years. I would prefer that
he does that as a full-time DH though.
With Joe Mauer on the roster, having a full-time DH is not an option. So, yes, he can contribute, but he might be
too old and not versatile enough to contribute to a Twins playoff team. He is another candidate to trade for young
pitching and after this season, he actually might bring something significant
back in return.
Joe Mauer -
Catcher/DH
Joe Mauer is an excellent player. It is very easy to look at all the things
that he does not do and be critical. To
do that would ignore all the things that he does extremely well. He gets on base as well as any player in
baseball. Only 3 active players have
gotten on base at a higher rate than Mauer in his career: Todd Helton, Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman
(4 players if you count Manny Ramirez as active. He might not have home run power, but he does
have good gap power. He may not be the
elite catcher that he once was, but he can still play catcher at a respectable
level. He has played more games this
year than any other Twins player with the exception of Josh Willingham. Joe Mauer is the type of player that every
team would want. Of course, he is almost
certainly overpaid, but that was as much a business decision as a baseball
decision. How could the Twins let a
MN-born, homegrown player walk with a new ballpark opening. Plus, he was coming off one of the greatest
seasons ever produced by a catcher human. The Twins had to overpay to keep him and it
was the right decision. While his salary
adds a degree of difficulty to the rebuilding process, his talent makes it a
lot easier to build a good team. If the
Twins contend in the next 6 years, he will be a positive contributor.
In summary
In my opinion, the
following players will play a significant role on a future Twins playoff team:
Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Parmelee
The following players
could play a significant role, if the Twins contend in 2014:
Josh Willingham, Denard Span, Ryan Doumit
The following players
could play a bench role on a good Twins team:
Ben Revere, Eduardo Escobar, Darin Mastroianni
It is too early to
tell, but these young players are exciting and could contribute:
Joe Benson, Oswaldo Arcia
The remaining players
either will not be around, or will not contribute positively.
Next week, I will tackle the pitchers.
What do you think of
this list?
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