Joe Mauer's Historic Slump

This Joe Mauer thing is getting out of hand.  Not the vitriol aimed toward Mauer, I've gotten used to that.  His lackluster season is getting out of control.  Even in his down 2011 season, he managed an above-average OPS+ (only 102, but that counts).  In Mauer's first season as a full-time first baseman, he is having a disaster of a season at the plate.  Many theories have been proposed to explain this disaster, ranging from the always eloquent "Mauer sucks" on Twitter to Parker Hageman's more nuanced analysis a couple weeks back. 

Whatever the reason for Mauer's struggles, the fact remains that he is having what is easily his worst season, all while carrying the lightest defensive load of his career and making a ridiculous salary that I won't even mention in mixed company.  The frustration toward Mauer's poor performance and the curiosity about what is causing his poor performance is reaching a nexus.  Even those who defend Mauer at all times (myself included) are confused by his sudden and seemingly unexplained decline. 

Hageman's article makes some very valid points and does provide a prescription of sorts to help Mauer get back on track.  That said, Mauer may not be capable of following that formula if his ability has just starkly declined.  The concussion Mauer suffered last season has been served up as a possible explanation, but considering how cautious the Twins have been with Mauer in the past and how much emphasis has been placed on concussion awareness, you'd think that they would have already ruled this out. 

The simplest solution is that Mauer is going through a prolonged slump.  There are some indicators that point toward this explanation.  Mauer is currently hitting left-handed pitching like a guy who isn't an all-time great.  He is a career .293/.364/.383 hitter against lefties, far below his overall career numbers, but still respectable against same-sided pitching.  His .747 OPS against lefties would be 58th among all left-handed batters with at least 1000 plate appearances since 1961.  This season, Mauer is batting .208/.279/.208 with zero extra-base hits against lefties.  Yikes.

His BABIP against lefties is about 50 points below his career average, but that doesn't really account for the complete loss of power.  His strikeout rate against lefties has been gradually increasing since 2008.  It has spiked four more points in 2014, hitting 24.4%.  In addition, his walk rate against lefties is down five points since 2012.  His line drive rate is up, so he's making good contact.  He's just making contact far less often.  All of this is discouraging, but we are talking about just 86  plate appearances.  Again, this could be just a high-profile slump.  

His numbers against right-handed pitching are down as well.  His career line is .334/.421/.503.  He is currently hitting .286/.365/.395.  His BABIP is about 50 points lower than his career figure, but again, that doesn't explain the lack of power.  However, his ground ball rate is seven points higher than his career average.  He isn't getting the ball up in the air and he isn't fast.  More grounders, fewer fly balls, less power, less speed...  This is not a good combination. 

I didn't intend to point out the obvious again.  Everyone knows that Mauer is having a bad year.  We're experiencing it with every game.  It seems to be getting worse by the minute and I'm certain that Mauer is pressing.  Yes, Robot Mauer is capable of human emotion.  Since we can see this clearly, I'm more interested in the historical context.  What if Mauer never returns to the levels he established earlier in his career?  What if he doesn't get halfway there?  What if this is Mauer's new level of performance?

I shudder to think and I'm still optimistic.  That said, it would be pretty unprecedented.  I looked up every single player since 1901 who has provided 40 rWAR or more before age 31.  Mauer sat at 44.3 before this season, his age 31 season.  My search resulted in 97 non-active players.  Of those players, only 44 provided more than 20 rWAR from 31 to retirement.  Only 24 topped 30 rWAR.  Only 14 topped 40 rWAR and those are some of the best players of all-time.  I would argue that Joe Mauer is a Hall of Fame player (or I would have last year), but I'm not sure he belongs withe Rickey, Clemente, Cobb, Musial, Aaron, Mays, Ruth and other guys who you can identify by one name.

But, there are 26 players who didn't provide another 10 rWAR from 31 on.  Many of these are Hall of Very Good players like Dick Allen, Joe Torre and Ted Simmons (more on him later), but some are Hall of Famers like Ken Griffey Jr, Ron Santo and Duke Snider.  Those guys provided a lot more WAR before their 31st birthdays, so they have that on Mauer.  If you look at the five guys on this list with the lowest WAR from 31 on, it's clear to see why they fell apart:

1. Chuck Knoblauch (psyche)
2. Travis Jackson (knees)
3. Nomar Garciaparra (injuries)
4. Darryl Strawberry (drugs)
5. Andruw Jones (donuts)

But what of the catchers?  Could it be that Mauer is just beat up because of the demands from donning the tools of ignorance?  There aren't many catchers on this list.  In fact, Mauer would be one of eight players.  Of those eight, three are in the Hall of Fame:  Gary Carter (14.3 rWAR after 30), Mickey Cochrane (11.4 rWAR after 30), and Johnny Bench (11.1 rWAR after 30).  Two are likely to join them:  Ivan Rodriguez (18.1 rWAR after 30) and Mike Piazza (17.9 rWAR after 30).  And one probably should be in the Hall:  Thurman Munson (5.6 rWAR after 30, but he was sadly killed in a plane crash at 32). 

Of course, these guys all remained catchers after 30.  The eighth guy?  Ted Simmons, who I mentioned earlier. 

Simmons might be Mauer's closest comp.  Simmons was on a Hall of Fame trajectory through age 30.  He had provided the Cardinals with 44.8 rWAR, just slightly more than Mauer has given the Twins.  Mauer bests Simmons in batting average, OBP and OPS+, but Simmons was the more powerful hitter and he played almost 300 more games by age 30.  For the wisenheimers, Simmons beats Mauer in GIDPs, 185-137. 

Then, at age 31, Simmons' OPS+ dropped suddenly.  It plummeted from 140 in 1980 to 87 in 1981.  Mauer's OPS+ last season was 143 and through Tuesday, his current OPS+ is 87.  Creepy.  The major difference is that Simmons was playing his first season with a new team and in a new league.  Even so, he finished the season at .216/.262/.376, a batting line the most ardent Mauer-bashers wouldn't propose as his floor.  Simmons did bounce back to an extent from age 32 to 35, posting a combined OPS+ of 102.  This was much better than his age 31 season, but a far cry from his career mark at age 30 (127).

Simmons caught almost 300 games during those five seasons, while Mauer will catch zero.  I believe this makes a Mauer rebound more likely, but it also means he will provide far less positional value no matter how he hits.  Simmons is not in the Hall of Fame, but you can make a valid argument in his favor.  Mauer will need to greatly eclipse Simmons' production in his 30s to make his own HOF case.  Moving positions at 30 will be held against him, even if his hitting does mostly improve to previous levels. 

Will Mauer mix a good season or two in with some bad seasons like Simmons did, or is this two-month stretch a harbinger for the rest of his career.  Hopefully for the Twins, this simply a blip on the radar of a Hall of Fame career.

I have no clue what to think.  Looking at his numbers, I can see a slight rebound, but how much?  Is something wrong with Mauer physically?  Perhaps, but if so, no one is saying anything.  Have teams finally figured out how to master Mauer?  This seems to be the likeliest of all scenarios.  Which leads to one final question:  does Mauer have adjustments in his bag of tricks in what is generally considered the decline phase of an MLB career? 

In the end, that might be the only question that matters and we have no way of answering it right now.  Time will tell but hopefully we won't have to wait long for an answer.   

Monday Morning Madness: June 9, 2014

Weekend Recap

Ugh, not great.  The Twins got two pretty poor starts from their two most consistent starters and dropped two of three to the lowly Astros.  Houston has one of the worst offenses in the AL, but they looked like a powerhouse last weekend.  Oh well, it's just one series.  The Twins did make a pretty significant move to upgrade their roster, so that's nice. 

Kendrys Morales

And one that came out of nowhere.  Everyone knew that Morales would sign very soon after the draft, because the draft pick compensation attached to him would expire.  However, I didn't see one rumor linking the Twins to Morales.  I'm quite pleased though.  I don't think this changes the Twins' 2014 ceiling a ton, but having a professional hitter as the everyday DH is never a bad thing.  Morales has a career OPS+ of 120 and has basically met that figure each of the last two seasons.  He's a much better hitter from the left side, but he's competent from the right side as well.

The Twins DFA'd Jason Kubel to make room for Morales.  This is something I had advocated for a few times over the last couple weeks.  I was actually sad after it happened, as I really do like Kubel.  Unfortunately, a DH has to hit and Kubel hasn't hit since a hot start.  Of course, Kubel isn't the only player affected by this signing. 

I had been up in arms about Josmil Pinto's lack of playing time, but much of that was because he was losing starts to far less talented players.  Now, he's competing for ABs with a very talented hitter.  I would still like to see Pinto in the lineup more often than not, but I think that might start to happen naturally, as I still don't think Kurt Suzuki is capable of a full season at the level he's been hitting.

Now, the Twins have five above average hitters in their everyday lineup (Morales, Brian Dozier, Oswaldo Arcia, Josh Willingham and yes, Joe Mauer).  Pinto should provide good offense when he's in the lineup and Trevor Plouffe has been pretty good so far this year.  If the shortstops and center fielders can be halfway decent, the Twins' lineup could be very potent.  I'm excited, can you tell?

Kyle Gibson

Gibson was great on Saturday, leading the Twins to an 8-0 victory and winning his fifth game of the season.  Gibson matched a career-high with five strikeouts.  He also issued his first walk since May 16, snapping a string of 23 consecutive innings without giving a free pass.  Gibson has done a much better job of limiting walks since April.  He hasn't improved his overall strikeout rate, but he has totaled four or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts. 

Gibson will never be a high strikeout guy, but if he can manage about six per nine innings, he could have a really nice career.  Right now, his 54.1% ground ball rate is fifth in the American League, so he already has one elite skill.  His walk rate is no longer in the bottom ten and should continue to improve.  While he was getting dynamic results early in the season, he's actually pitching better now.   

Danny Santana

Santana hit his first Major League home run on Friday night.  He went 4-5 with a double and five RBI on Saturday.  Sunday...well Sunday wasn't really great for anyone.  Santana is quite fun to watch.  He's young, he's fast, he's new.  New toys are always exciting.  I thought Santana would be with the Twins for a couple weeks and then he would head back to Rochester until September.  However, he's been great and Ron Gardenhire seems to like and trust him.  It would be very hard to send him back to AAA right now.

Look, you know I love Eduardo Escobar.  I made this:

However, Santana is not a long-term option in center.  Byron Buxton owns that position from 2015 to 2035 (hopefully).  Santana is a long-term option at short and I don't think Escobar is.  Perhaps it might be time to get Santana a few starts at short, possibly transitioning him to that position full-time in the next couple of weeks.  Santana isn't as good as Escobar defensively, but he also needs reps to actually get better.  Escobar has cooled off a bit at the plate and Santana profiles as a better hitter anyway.  I'm not sure this matters a whole lot over the course of the next decade, but I'd hate to stunt Santana's growth just because he is very fun to watch and a utility guy is going through a hot streak. 

Madness

Former Twin Update - Johan Santana

This sucks.  Johan Santana was about a week from making his 2014 MLB debut when he tore his Achilles trying to make a defensive play.  Santana is an excellent athlete and made some great plays in the field in his day, but this one cost him the rest of the 2014 season and could be his final play as a professional athlete.  I hope that is not the case.  I'd like to see Santana come back for 2015 (with the Twins please) because I am a huge fan of his and I want him to have more success as a pitcher.  Ah, so awful, let's move on. 

Random Link - Grant Brisbee's Draft Analysis

On the much lighter side, Grant Brisbee analyzed the first round of the MLB draft.  Here's the link.  The article itself is outstanding, although it could be a bit confusing if you aren't familiar with his work.  The comments from the article are great, but the Facebook comments from the article are gold.  It's never fun to be the guy who isn't in on the joke, but being one of the guys who is in on the joke, watching the guy who isn't in on the joke is quite amusing.  Anyway, the article is fun on its own, even if you don't like making fun of innocent people.

What kind of food is Glen Perkins?

A brand new feature!  Award-winning, too!

Glen Perkins is pizza.  He's simple, but versatile.  He's basically fastball/slider (cheese and sauce), but he throws those pitches like he doesn't give a what (pepperoni?).  BUT, he also can adapt.  He can be a BBQ chicken pizza, he can be a Hawaiian pizza, he can be a garbage pizza.  He can be anything!  He's funny, he's personable, he's charismatic and he's awesome.  Plus, everyone loves him.  I have found few people in this world who dislike pizza and even fewer who dislike Glen Perkins.  Glen Perkins, the pizza of the Twins.    

Fun Stat - Power-Speed

No one has the Power-Speed of Brian Dozier!  What is Power-Speed, you ask?  Well, it's the harmonic mean of home runs and stolen bases, of course!  It's a Bill James stat designed to look at which players provide the best combination of these two skills.  Of course, there's a ton more to power and speed than just home runs and stolen bases, but it's still fun to see Dozier at the top of the list.  Someone should really teach that Bill James guy about sabermetrics. 

Improving Celebrations?

Last year, I proposed silly hats to improve celebrations.  I even made a picture:

Fun, right?  Well, every coin has a heads and a tails. 

See, now they don't add a whole lot.  Super unprofessional, trainer.  By the way, this is the last time I'll reference this event, Kendrys.  I promise. 

Plugging My Way

I did a mailbag last week.  It was about 1300 words and 500 were about snow pants.  You'll just have to read it to figure out why.  I also answered questions about Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Nick Gordon and Mike Pelfrey.  Woof, that list tapered off hard.  Here's the link.  

Parting Haiku

Morales is nice

Not going to win it all

Still great for the fans

Have a nice week, everyone!

Juney June Mailbag

I made a feeble attempt to generate actual questions for this month, as you can see here:

Trying something new this month, answering actual #MNTwins questions if I can. Got a tough Q? Why not ask me and watch me side-step it?
— Brad Swanson (@bridman77) June 2, 2014

I am deathly afraid of rejection, so I qualified it like four times.  Shockingly, that one tweet did not generate any questions!  Instead, I have some questions from a different resource.  Me.

OMG are you done complaining about the lineup?  Josmil Pinto has been playing more and he hasn't done anything.  You whined and cried and now you have your wish.  Are you finally content?

Brad S, St. Paul, MN

Yeah, I'm super excited that Pinto isn't hitting.  I pretty much knew that would happen.  As I've written before, I don't believe in jinxes and I'm convinced that I am a giant jinx.  My gripe with Pinto is less about how he has played and more about the fact that he needs to be playing to develop.  Sitting on the bench three out of four games will not help Pinto hit MLB pitching.  It's a nice bonus that Pinto had been one of the  Twins' best hitters, but to me, that isn't the main reason why he needs to be in the lineup.  

It's bad enough that he will develop as a catcher primarily by practicing and watching, not playing in games, but he needs to be hitting because his bat is what makes him an enticing young player.  Keep him in the lineup, fellas. 

What did you think of the Twins taking shortstop Nick Gordon with their first-round pick?

Draftniks everywhere, MN

If you are really everywhere, why say you're from Minnesota?  Anyway, I love it.  An athletic true shortstop with a strong arm and possible 20 HR upside?  That sounds pretty great.  I had secretly hoped that Carlos Rodon would slip to the Twins, but I knew that wouldn't actually happen.  Gordon instantly becomes one of the Twins' top ten prospects and the fact that his dad and brother are MLB players is pretty nice.  It was a great pick. 

What do you think of this caaaaarazy Mike Pelfrey situation?  Is he hiding an injury?  Is he bad?  Both?  Thanks, I'm a huge reader.

Brad S, St. Paul, MN

I have a question for you.  Actually, a question for Twins fans.  Here are three scenarios:

1. The Twins do not sign Mike Pelfrey and pocket $11 million
2. The Twins sign Mike Pelfrey for $11 million and he pitches poorly
3. The Twins sign Mike Pelfrey for $11 million and he barely pitches because he's injured most of the two years

I honestly feel that more people would prefer number 3 to number 1.  I think that many fans would be happy to waste that $11 million of Pohlad cash rather than let them pocket it.  I'm not saying I agree or disagree with that sentiment, I just think it's interesting. 

As for the situation?  Who cares?  Pelfrey is awful and the Twins don't miss him.  If he comes back, great.  He seems like a nice enough guy.  If he's out for a short or long while?  The Twins will get by. 

What's your deal?  I've known you for a long time.  When I first met you, you could barely string together a sentence.  You never said anything of interest.  You couldn't even feed yourself properly.  What qualifies you to be critical of a Major League Baseball team?

Mom, St. Paul, MN

Obviously, this blog is meant to be fun.  On occasion, I'll take a shot at someone with much more talent than I possess.  When that happens, please remember that this blog is for entertainment purposes only.  I did not actually talk to Ron Gardenhire like I wrote here.  I did not spy on a Target Field Promotions meeting like I wrote here. 

I have no business giving advice about hitting, pitching, prospects, fielding, managing, coaching, grounds keeping, cap-wearing, sweating, growing a beard, winning, losing, building a team, operating a team, Twitter, writing, talking, thinking, ponies, cheering, cheerleading, and/or player adoption.  That said, I will write about any and all of those topics, because it's fun.  

Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about Aaron Hicks?  Can you finally admit that he should be in AAA?

Brad S, St. Paul, MN

I am ready to admit that Hicks should be in AAA.  I am ready to laud Hicks for making the decision to stop switch hitting.  I am willing to admit that I was wrong about Hicks being a good player right now.  However, I am not willing to admit that I think Hicks will never be a productive player.  He's just too talented.  If nothing else, Hicks should be able to round into a good 4th outfielder.  Maybe that isn't much, but wouldn't we kill for a good 4th outfielder right about now? 

I hold out higher hopes for Hicks than a 4th outfielder, but I am starting to come around to the line of thinking that he won't hit enough to play a corner productively.  If that's the case, hopefully the Twins will be able to get something of value for him down the road because I really hope that I never have to admit to being wrong about Byron Buxton (who I think will one day paint the Sistine Chapel 2)

You have recently made it very clear that you love/want to adopt Oswaldo Arcia.  Some might argue that the fire that he plays with makes him reckless or even shows up other, calmer players.  What say you?  Thanks for the posts, they certainly take up space.

Brad S, St. Paul, MN

If you know me, you know that I love big personalities.  Arcia is clearly an emotional guy.  I think that this is a good thing and I hope that no one tries to change his personality.  Ron Gardenhire said that he wouldn't, so that takes away the most likely culprit.  Arcia is a young man and I'm sure he won't be this excitable when he's older.  That said, it's really fun to watch him play baseball and I am a fan of baseball. 

If he's ever looking for someone to hang out with, I did take four years of high school Spanish and I have a car. 

What do you consider proper ballgame attire?  Thanks, I enjoy the casual fashion of your blog.

Brad S, St. Paul, MN

This is a great question.  It really depends on the time of the year.  The only game I have attended so far this year was very brisk and windy.  Naturally, I wore a t-shirt and jeans and nearly died of hypothermia.  I got that cold cough as I ran back to my car.  You know, that feeling when you run in the cold?  Maybe it's just me.  I work in a coal mine. 

Anyway, you have to dress to the weather.  If it's below 50, I recommend snow pants.  Snow pants was my mortal enemy when I was a kid, but I'd kill for a pair of good snow pants as an adult.  I'd walk around in them all day long.  Just swishing to and fro, it would be phenomenal.  In fact, I'm going to recommend snow pants regardless of temperature. 

So, now you have your bottoms picked out, what else?  If it's cold, wear a thermal sweatshirt with a hood.  You may think, why not a jacket?  Well, remember, those snow pants are going to keep you mighty warm on their own.  You might not need  a jacket and if you have to take it off, do you really want to put in on the ground in a puddle of spilled beer and peanut spittings?  Do you want to sit on it?  You'll be six inches taller and the person behind you will spit peanuts on you as a punishment.  No, no jacket, thermal sweatshirt.  Accessorize with a nice hat.  Maybe one of those jester hats?  It's warm and it shows that you have a silly side. 

If it's summer, you can't go wrong with an opened up button-down shirt.  Trust me when I tell you that everyone wants to see your chest and stomach.  Roll up them sleeves too.  Remember, you're going to take on some heat in the snow pants area.  As for a hat, opt for a visor.  That way, excess heat will escape your head, while you still get that cool hat-brim sunburn that drives the ladies wild. 

If these options do not appeal to you, I'll suggest what I suggest for just about every situation:  one of those one-piece jumpsuits.  With snow pants. 

Will you stop?

G. Monsoon, WWF

Yes, yes I will.  Have a nice weekend, everyone!

Brad Swanson's Mom is actually a terrific person.  Brad Swanson thinks silly jokes are silly and fun.  Brad Swanson once dropped his phone into the sink and then wondered out loud about why it wasn't working.

I think it's time to let Gomez

With the Twins and Brewers playing baseball against each other this week, it means that Carlos Gomez is reunited with his former team.  Since Gomez was traded, the first baseman and the other guy are no longer with the team.  The player the Twins traded Gomez for is long gone.  The Twins have gone through three starting center fielders and countless fill-ins at the position.  All of this hurts enough on its own, but when you also consider that Gomez has rounded into one of the best players in the Majors, it hurts even more. 

I see many Twins fans who harp on the Twins for giving up on Gomez too quickly.  I see their point, but I'm not sure of the validity.  When Gomez was traded, he had just finished his second year with the Twins and he sported a career batting line of .246/.292/.346 with over 1100 plate appearances under his belt.  Sure, he was just a couple months shy of 24 and likely to improve, but by how much?  Gomez had struck out 241 times and walked just 55 times.  He often looked out of control at times and I know that I wondered if he'd ever be able to harness his obvious talents. 

During the 2009 season, Gomez had lost his starting job to the much more consistent Denard Span.  The Twins also had Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer on the corners, so there was no place to put Span if Gomez was in center.  While Young hadn't been great in 2009, he had at least been an above-average hitter earlier in his career.  Cuddyer had just posted a 125 OPS+ in 2009.  Jason Kubel was still around, coming off of a 137 OPS+ season.  There was no place for Gomez, a guy who couldn't manage an OPS+ greater than 77 in his two seasons in Minnesota. 

The Twins had a huge hole at shortstop.  They had been filling the position with decent players over the years, but never got more than a year or so out of those decent players.  With an outfield surplus, why not trade someone to fill a position of need?  When the Twins decided to move Gomez for J.J. Hardy, they did just that.  Hardy was coming off a tough year, but had been great in the recent past.  The trade made sense.  Hardy wasn't great in 2010, but he wasn't bad either.  Then, he was traded.  We'll come back to that later. 

Fast forward to 2013 and of course, Carlos Gomez is a superstar.  He posted an 8.9 rWAR season in 2013 and he's picked up right where he left off in 2014.  Super cool, Go-Go.  I mean, I am happy for him.  He was an exciting player, even when he was a frustrating player.  He seemed to have real joy for baseball and life, which I always enjoy.  Plus, he's fiery, which often results in confusing, but interesting events.  I wish he was a superstar in Minnesota, but that's not how it worked out. 

2013 was Gomez's sixth full season (his 2007 season at age 21 did not pass the rookie threshold).  He hit .284/.338/.506, good for a 129 OPS+.  He finished ninth in NL MVP voting and probably should have finished higher.  Gomez actually started his breakout in the second half of the 2012 season.  He hit .278/.321/.488, good for an OPS+ of 121.  His power had started to come around and his OBP was getting to an acceptable rate.  That said, on July 22, 2012, he was hitting .233/.284/.406.  This would have been late July of his fifth season with the Twins, had they not traded him.  Should the Twins have held on that long?

Milwaukee wasn't even that enamored with Gomez.  They only gave him 576 plate appearances between 2010 and 2011.  He "rewarded" that lack of faith by hitting .238/.288/.377 over those two seasons.  When Gomez started to break out in 2012, there was simply no way the Brewers or Twins or anyone could have predicted it.  Something clicked and now Gomez is a star.  Can you really blame the Twins for giving up on him?  Should they have held on to him for four and a half seasons, feeding him plate appearances that he didn't earn while better players were on the bench? 

The research would say that the Twins were right (with the benefit of some hindsight) to give up on Gomez.  Gomez posted his first above-average OPS+ in 2012, his fifth full season and even then, it was just a 101 OPS+.  I looked at every player since 1994 that enjoyed a breakout in their fifth full season (first OPS+ greater than 100) and the list is pretty small.  I found 14 total players and only six had their breakout season with their original team.  Here's that six:

• Mike Lansing - 1997 - Montreal Expos
• Mike Lieberthal - 1999 - Philadelphia Phillies
• Luis Castillo - 2000 - Florida Marlins
• Randy Winn - 2002 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
• Brian Roberts - 2005 - Baltimore Orioles
• Everth Cabrera - 2013 - San Diego Padres

That's it.  Six guys.  One happened after Gomez's breakout, so really just five cases for Twins fans to look at.  While the Twins didn't trade Gomez after five seasons, it seems pretty unlikely that they would have kept him much longer than they did.  8 more players did the very same, but like Gomez, their original team had given up on them (this list includes Jason Bartlett, oddly enough).  When you look at that list, there are some nice players, but no superstars.  Gomez's success is surprising and almost unprecedented.    

This is the big issue - the fact that Gomez wasn't given time to develop.  We can rehash the details quickly - Gomez was the jewel of the Johan Santana trade, the Twins wanted something tangible to point toward, Gomez was kept in the Majors even though he needed more time in the Minors.  In fact, had Gomez been sent to AAA in 2008, he would have been about 5 years younger than the average International League player.  Even if he had spent all of 2008 with Rochester, he would have been ready for MLB duty as a 23-year-old in 2009. 

Plenty of players hit their peaks at age 26, just like Gomez did, but very few of those players showed almost no MLB success and maintained a consistent MLB roster spot.  Obviously, Gomez's awesome defense and blazing speed was valuable enough for teams to somewhat stunt his growth as a hitter.  Gomez's biggest obstacle could have actually been his immense talent, as both the Twins and Brewers thought enough of Gomez's talents to keep him around even if he wasn't a fully-formed player.    

One last thing.  What if Hardy was still around?  Is the Gomez trade more upsetting because of a concurrent move?  I believe so.  I think that if Hardy was still on the Twins and filling a need at short, we wouldn't be as upset about the Gomez trade.  Hardy was the better player from 2010-2012, 8.7 rWAR to 5.1 rWAR.  I think it's safe to say that Gomez will be the better player from 2013 on, but if the Twins had simply kept Hardy after the 2010 season, it would be a lot easier to handle the discrepancy with some good Hardy seasons already in hand.  Should the Hardy trade be linked with the Gomez trade?  Probably not, but it's very hard to separate them. 

Despite the lack of success for the Twins over the last three years, despite the success Gomez has had since his departure, despite the current lack of a quality center fielder, I still feel it is time for us as Twins fans to let go.  Gomez is a star, but he's gone.  We can continue to harp on the fact that he was traded before he fully actualized, but what good does that do?  If you look at the evidence, there was no reason to think that Gomez would become the player he has become.  All you can do is tip your cap to the man and either cheer for or secretly despise his success.  No matter what, he isn't coming back.  

Monday Morning Madness: June 2, 2014

Weekend Recap

Winning a series in New York is becoming old hat.  The Twins took two of three from the Yankees in Yankee Stadium for the second year in a row.  They exploded for six runs in the top of the ninth, with most of the damage being done off of the generally dominant David Robertson.  Phil Hughes won his sixth game and pitched extremely well in his return to Yankee Stadium.  In fact, all three starters pitched well this weekend.  Not surprisingly, the Twins won the series. 

Joe Mauer

On the negative side, Mauer had another poor series in New York, although I'm still not ready to join the "concerned" camp.  In fact, Parker Hageman's article on Twins Daily last week made me feel much better about Mauer's slow start.  Basically, he showed how teams are taking away Mauer's opposite-field power.  Not surprisingly, Mauer's power is way down in 2014 and he's even making contact at a lower rate. 

That said, there are plenty of important stats that point toward some improvement in the near future.  His line drive rate is right in line with some of his best seasons.  His strikeout rate isn't much higher than last season, when he posted a 144 wRC+ and that rate is slowly decreasing.  His plate discipline numbers are still borderline elite. 

Hageman points out that Mauer needs to adjust to the adjustments, something that I am confident he can do.  While Mauer's 2014 season is currently a disaster, I could still see Mauer finishing this season as the best hitter on the team.  Mauer may never be 40% better than the average hitter going forward, but I don't think he's washed up just yet. 

Kevin Correia

Correia has been better in his last three starts.  Since I called for his head a couple weeks ago, he has made three starts, pitched 19 innings and given up just eight earned runs.  He had 14 strikeouts with just two walks in those three starts.  During that time, he lowered his ERA from 6.80 to 5.87, which is obviously a huge improvement.  On Saturday, he gave up a bunch of hits, but he kept the Twins in the game against a pretty good team.

I hope that Correia can get back to being the surprisingly effective pitcher he was last season.  Obviously, that helps my favorite team win games.  I don't see much of a future for Correia in Minnesota, but hopefully he can build some value in his next 6-8 starts.  I imagine the Twins will be shopping Correia in July and with any luck they can something decent in return. 

Josh Willingham/Oswaldo Arcia

Isn't it great to have these two back?  Any lineup gets so much better with two actual MLB-quality hitters added.  These two quality hitters combined to drive in six of the Twins' 14 runs over the weekend.  They combined for five home runs last week.  Adding their power to the lineup can only help, especially if the guys at the top of the lineup can get back to their high-OBP ways.  

Madness

Former Twin Update - Carlos Gomez

Well, Carlos Gomez appears to be a superstar.  Through Sunday, Gomez sits at 2.6 fWAR, good for 7th in the Majors.  Most impressively, almost all of that number comes from his hitting.  He had a 166 wRC+ as of Saturday, meaning he was 66% better at the plate than the average player.  His defense only rates slightly above average and his baserunning has actually been slightly below average.  When Gomez broke out last year, he was a good hitter, a great baserunner and a superstar defender.  Now, he appears to be a superstar hitter.  His walk rate is better than the NL average and his strikeout rate isn't really that high for the power hitter he appears to have rounded into.    

I'm sure there are Twins fans weeping and screaming right now, but on Wednesday, I'll explain why we shouldn't be upset.  Oh, the suspense!

Fun Stat - No Walks in May

Phil Hughes has been a revelation for the Twins.  He started slow, but was dominant in May.  In fact, Hughes did not issue a single walk in the month of May.  Going an entire month without issuing a walk is impressive.  In fact, no starter in Twins' history (throwing at least 15 innings) has gone the entire month of May without issuing a walk.  Hughes threw 33.1 innings this May and interestingly enough, Brad Radke threw 33.1 innings in May of 2001 and issued just one walk.  Math tells me that Hughes was infinitely better than Radke. 

To take this a step further, Hughes' May is a Twins record for most innings pitched without issuing a walk in a single month.  Prior to Hughes' walk-less May, the record was 27.1 innings in a single month.  That record was set in September of 2011.  The man who set that record?  The Great Kevin Slowey.  Slowey posted a 7.57 ERA that month.  That was part of his charm. 

Random Photoshop

I tweeted this picture out about three times, so you know I'm proud of it.  If you follow me on Twitter, you'd already be sick of this picture!  Oddly enough, as I was working on it, the great Andrew Walter, Twins Fan From Afar, was on my wavelength:

Before ultimately being shot in CA, working title of "Angles in the Outfield" was "Infielders in the Outfield" when @Twins were to host film
— Andrew Walter (@MNfanfromafar) May 28, 2014

Follow him on Twitter, he has great Twins and New Britain Rock Cats takes. 

Then, I found out that another Twins twitter personality was working on the same thing!

@bridman77 I was literally working on this in MS Paint when you posted it.
— Greg (@glp_vt) May 28, 2014

Then, I realized that he wrote an Aaron Hicks article that I really enjoyed.  You should read it.  And follow him on Twitter.  In summary, the internet Twins community is great.

Let's Get Excited about a Prospect! - Trevor May

Trevor May has not allowed a run in his last four starts.  He has thrown 55 innings this season, with 54 strikeouts and just 22 walks.  I've been high on May since the Twins acquired him for Ben Revere.  While May didn't put up huge numbers in 2013, he made every scheduled start.  In fact, May hasn't missed a start since 2010.  Now, he's combining performance with durability.  He's a big guy with a big frame and big stuff.  He's on the 40-man roster and I think it's very likely he slides into the rotation the next time someone is needed.  He may not leave the rotation for a long time.  I'm excited!

Random Link - All-Time Twins Team

Jesse at TwinkieTown posted something really fun last week.  You have to build a team of 11 Twins players with a $33 budget.  Players cost from $1 to $5.  There are some pretty great values too.  Brian Dozier is just $2.  Shane Mack was just $3.  Matt Lawton was just a buck!  Anyway, you should check it out and build your team.  Because I am the Bugs Bunny of Twins blog-guys, I couldn't resist making an obvious joke:

.@TwinkieTown Here's my team and I'm pocketing the extra dollar in honor of the Pohlads. pic.twitter.com/75N3tCGEQ8
— Brad Swanson (@bridman77) May 30, 2014

Ain't I a stinker?

Plugging My Way - Draft Stuff

Last year, I wrote recaps of each of the Twins' drafts from 1988 to 2013.  I looked at all kinds of important things:  fun names, what ifs, fun facts and more!  Here's a fun fact from 1999 to whet your appetite: 

• I briefly thought that Barry Quickstad's name was Barry Quicksand.  Once I realized my error, I completely lost interest in Barry Quickstad.

Yeah!  If you want to read any or all of these draft recaps, I put them all in an archive.  Here's the link.  Enjoy!

Parting Thought

Speaking of the draft, the Twins will select fifth overall on Thursday night.  The last three years have been really hard to watch, but in the end, the Twins will benefit because they will come away with Byron Buxton, Kohl Stewart and the guy they draft this week.  No one likes to lose, but those guys should help the Twins win in the future.  Have a great week, everyone!