Monday, October 20, 2014

It's Raining 40-Men: Aaron Hicks

What's the word for when something is exactly the same as it was before, only you really hoped that it would be better or at least different but it wasn't and you're crying when I met you and then dying to forget you?  Aaronsmithing?  Aerohicksing?  I'll admit this paragraph makes no sense when you admit that you'd enjoy seeing Aaron Hicks perform in an Aerosmith cover band, but that only plays their 90s songs.  I don't want to miss that thing.

2014 Season Overview
The thing about disasters is that you generally can't have a second disaster.  A second disaster is just cruel.  Well, the first one is cruel too.  It's just ... look, I'm not trying to come off as pro-disaster.  Can we move on?

Aaron Hicks followed up a disastrous 2013 with another disastrous season in 2014.  He did improve his overall performance, but from an '87 Honda Odyssey to a '93 Toyota Corolla.  Is that an apt comparison?  I don't know cars.  If you're wondering why I'm writing about disasters, Aerosmith and cars instead of Hicks, it's because I'm exhausted.  I've defended Hicks just about as much as anyone and I'm not sure I can take another season of being his only champion.

2015 Role Projection
Since I'm exhausted, I'll just assume that Hicks is the starting center fielder once more, a position that he is unlikely to actually earn and seemingly equally unlikely to hold down for the whole 2015 season.  Hicks got on-base at a nice rate in 2014, but he provided less power than an old Honda Punto.  At least Hicks played relatively well in AAA.  Maybe he needs a full season there.  At age 25.  Approaching arbitration.  Bungled. 

2015 Season Prediction
This is the year!  Hicks has too much talent to fail three times.  He's going to get handed the center field job but that's fine, he's going to seize the unwarranted third opportunity and hold down the job until Byron Buxton is ready to seize the job from Hicks and hold it down until the end of time.  Hicks will put together the decent power he showed in 2013 with his solid OBP from 2014 and become a competent outfielder who can hit enough to move to a corner when Buxton arrives. 

Or, he won't.

A 90s Song for Aaron
Blind Melon - "Three is a Magic Number"

Long-Term Outlook
Hicks will be just 25 in 2015 and his performance has been so poor that an arbiter might rule that he actually owes the Twins money when he gets to that point.  The Twins are likely to be bad in 2015 and Hicks is still one of the more logical breakout candidates in 2015 because of his combination of talent and opportunity.  The Twins have just one real outfielder on their MLB roster going into 2015, so Hicks could easily make the team, harness his talent and become a long-term piece.  Well, not easily.  He's proved that twice already.

Is he a keeper?
I guess; why not?  The two bad seasons are done and gone.  Those seasons will be hard to forget, but I'm guessing everyone would forget it right around the time Hicks starts putting together a good season.  That's the thing with memories, they're short.  If Hicks can just be good in April, he'll change his story, possibly forever.  If he's bad in April?  Maybe Buxton will be ready.


  1. Gosh, it would be so good if Hicks could be at least replacement level this year or better. If he could break through, it would be wonderful if he could shift over to left or right field to make way for Buxton.

    Speaking of Buxton, I've not yet heard - how's he recovering? That injury this summer was scary.

    1. He's having a rough time in the Arizona Fall League, but he's also very rusty, I'd bet. I think he'll be fine long-term and should be with the Twins at some point next season.