Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets Part II

Yesterday, I started to delve into starting pitchers who I want the Twins to target in potential trades.  I outlined five starters, three from the Cincinnati Reds.  If you missed it, click here.  Today, I have five more pitchers for you, free of charge!  There are two legitimate "aces" on this list and both are almost certainly pipe dreams.  That being said, it's fun to aim high.  I hope the Twins aim high, because I'd love to be surprised by my favorite team. 

Rick Porcello - Age 25 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

If the Twins trade for Porcello, we could officially start the tally on who says "Por-cello" and who says "Por-chello."  Personally, I say "Por-ceyo" in honor of the Spanish language.  Regardless of how you incorrectly say his name, Porcello might represent the best buying opportunity of the ten players I am outlining.  Porcello reached the Majors at age 20 and he's more than held his own since then.  His career 4.51 ERA isn't dynamic, but he's just 24.  He's averaged 174 innings in those five seasons and given up a ton of hits, leading the league in that category in 2012. 

Why is Porcello worth buying?  He's got a great curveball and an improving primary fastball.  He's finally getting some strikeouts with the former pitch, almost doubling his strikeout rate using that pitch since 2009.  His curve is dynamic and his control is outstanding.  His career walk rate is 6%, compared with 2013's AL average of 8%.  Porcello gets mad ground balls, posting a career rate of 52.8% and a career-high rate of 55.3% in 2013.  The most compelling stat is Porcello's 19.3% strikeout rate in 2013, nearly six points higher than any other year in his career.  Add up his sparkling walk rate, extreme ground ball tendencies and improving strikeout rate and you get a 3.19 xFIP in 2013.  Outstanding!

Porcello will be 25 in December.  He won't be a free agent until 2016 and a trade followed by a long-term extension would be an excellent move by the Twins.  He's good right now and I think he's going to get better.  This is the lowest his value is going to be.  Now is the time to buy. 

David Price - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

David Price is really good.  It's going to take a lot to get him though.  I imagine the Rays don't budge unless Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano are included in a deal.  Even if the Twins can talk them out of those stud prospects, the Rays would ask for Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart and then what's the real point?  Price is almost certainly worth those prospects (maybe not Buxton, but even that is worth arguing).  He's one of the best pitchers in baseball.  His strikeout rate dipped in 2013, but his walk rate plummeted.  His ground ball rate in 2013 reverted to his pre-2012 levels and he also missed time with a triceps injury.  

I love the player, but I don't love him as a trade target.  He's too expensive in all ways.  He'd cost a blue chip prospect and then hundreds of millions of dollars in payroll-tightening money.  Price is great, but I'd still pass. 

Jeff Samardzija - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

Samardzija really harnessed his control in 2012 and transformed into a nice pitcher.  If you watched him early in his career, you likely would have never seen him coming.  In 61 2012-13 starts, Samardzija has a strikeout rate around 24% (20% is NL average), a walk rate around 8% (just about NL average) and an xFIP of about 3.40.  His 2013 season wasn't as pretty as his 2012 season, but he did throw nearly 40 more innings and had a slight jump in BABIP to go with a slight decrease in his strand rate.  He throws hard too.  His fastball sits 94 and touches 98.  His slider is nasty too.  I like Samardzija as a trade target, especially because I think he would be cheaper than just about anyone else on this list. 

Max Scherzer - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2015

Oh man, I wish I had written this last off-season and I wish I had known that Scherzer was going to blossom into a Cy Young winner.  It was all legit too.  He's harnessed his command and gotten his walk rate below AL average.  He's still throws really hard.  He still racks up strikeouts.  He still has two different colored eyes.  His 2013 was just a touch lucky (.259 BABIP), but Scherzer is still a really good Ace-ish starting pitcher, who is still only 29.  Of course he'll be a free agent next Winter and if the Twins were to make a trade for him, they would absolutely have to have an extension in place.  The Tigers' asking price will likely be similar to the Rays' asking price for Price. 

Much like Price, I love the pitcher but I don't feel good about the cost.  His fly ball tendencies would play nicely at Target Field though.  Man, he's good.  Maybe the Twins can scoop him up as a free agent in November of 2014. 

Jordan Zimmermann - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

Zimmermann fits the Twins' profile a bit better than the other guys on this list.  He really limits walks.  His career rate is 5.4% and his 4.6% rate was 8th best in the NL in 2013.  He doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he usually settles in right around league-average.  His ground ball rate is trending upwards and his innings pitched have increased in each of the last three seasons, hitting 213.1 in 2013.  Unlike most Twins pitchers, Zimmermann throws a baseball very hard.  His fastball sits 93-94 and touches 97.  He also has an effective slider, curve and change.  His deep arsenal and great command are very enticing.  I'm not sure Washington can keep Zimmermann if they have any interest in keeping Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg.  If that's true, the Twins could land a very good number 2 starter if the right trade is proposed. 

Speaking of the right trade, who would you give up to get these guys?  I know that I would prefer to keep all of the Twins' consensus top four prospects - Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Stewart.  If the Twins call around to these teams and find that they all want one of those guys, then I'd start pursuing potential free agents even more aggressively.  If the Twins can add two quality starting pitchers this off-season, they can transform the team.  If they can pull this massive feat off, look at the potential starting rotation in 2015:

Homer Bailey

Matt Garza

Alex Meyer

Kyle Gibson

Kevin Slowey

That last one might be a joke, but if your first four are as good as those four, then your fifth starter could be just about anyone.  I honestly think that rotation could be acquired for about $30-35 million per season and a couple of good prospects.  Suddenly, the Twins have a ton of young starting pitching in the low Minors.  If the Reds wanted someone like Jose Berrios (plus more, Bailey is really good), you'd have to make that deal.  Isn't the goal with prospects to grow a guy like Bailey?  Bailey's grown.  You can get him if you give up some of your depth.  If the Reds wanted Berrios, Eddie Rosario and a young starter at Rookie ball, I'd say "yes, please send me your awesome pitcher, I'd like to have him now."

Note:  Obviously, the Rosario suspension news throws a bit of a wrench into this plan.  However, he's going to be suspended 50 games, not imprisoned for life.  

These names are all just examples, so please don't yell at me.  I don't know if that would be a trade the Reds or Twins would make.  I don't know how many of the teams who hold these pitchers are interested in what the Twins could sell.  I do know that the rate of prospect success is pretty low.  I also know that good MLB players typically remain good.  The Twins have a surplus of prospects and a deficit of quality, MLB starting pitchers.  It seems like a logical trade-off.  Otherwise:

"You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it." 

That's right Johan, but in this case, the "us" would be Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Correia (joking).  If the Twins really aren't careful, the "us" could be Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.  They have to address MLB starting pitching at some point.  The time is now.  Chant with me:

BUY!  BUY!  BUY!  BUY!  BUY!

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets Part I

With all the excitement regarding free agency, we all seem to have forgotten that the Twins attempted to reload their starting pitching last summer by making trades.  When the Twins unloaded their two centerfielders for starting pitching, they took a calculated risk.  They hoped that the pitchers they traded for would pan out while also hoping that their outfield depth would help them overcome the talented players they parted with.  Here we are nearly one year later, and the Twins still need starting pitching and still have organizational depth in the outfield.    

The Twins have recently been linked to Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo and Ricky Nolasco.  Any of those three would immediately become the Twins' best starting pitcher.  Sign two and the Twins start to look like an interesting team entering 2014.  What happens if these attractive free agent targets choose different homes?  The difficulty in persuading a good player to play for a bad team is painfully obvious:  why play for the Twins when better teams have just as much money? 

The nice thing about trades is that you don't have to persuade the player, just the other team.  All the Twins have to do is offer something fair and enticing.  Baseball Prospectus recently declared the Twins' farm system the best in baseball, so clearly the Twins have attractive trade chips. 

If the Twins do strike out in free agency, I have identified ten starting pitching targets that I would hope the Twins would investigate.  Each has at least one more year of team control and most have two.  I put them in alphabetical order, as I don't have a strong preference because I have no idea who would need to be traded to acquire these players.  My hope would that each player would be immediately signed to a long-term extension, but the lack of an extension would not necessarily be a deal-breaker. 

Since I suck at being succinct, I'll post five today and five tomorrow.  Let's dance.

Homer Bailey - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2015

Had I ranked these players, Bailey would be near the top of my list.  In fact, my secret hope is that he doesn't sign an extension before next off-season and the Twins can just grab him as a free agent next year.  That being said, the Twins would be competing against 29 other teams and if they trade for him now, they can reap the benefits of his age 28 season, in addition to his age 29-35(?) seasons. 

Why do I like Bailey?  Bailey is a post-prospect.  The seventh-overall pick back in 2004, Bailey looked like a bit of a bust as recently as 2011.  His 2012 and 2013 seasons demonstrate the promise he has fulfilled as a former first-round pick.  He saw an uptick in his velocity in 2013, sitting 93-94 and touching 98.  This likely contributed to his career best 23.4% strikeout rate.  His walk rate has hovered around 6% the past three seasons and has also induced ground balls at an above-average rate in 2012 and 2013.  His 2013 season was no fluke, and he ended with 209 innings pitched, 199 strikeouts, just 54 walks and an xFIP of 3.34. 

As you'll see later in this list, the Reds have two more pitchers featured.  The Reds aren't going to be able to sign all three, so trading one or two might be their reality.  If the Twins want to make a deal, the Reds seem like a reasonable trade partner.

Johnny Cueto - Age 28 in 2014, $10 million in 2014, $10 million team option in 2015

I'm not as high on Cueto as I would have been at this time last year.  His 2013 season was disappointing, as he only threw 60.2 innings due to multiple trips to the DL for a shoulder strain.  When he did pitch, he was just as impressive as ever, walking few, inducing ground balls, holding runners and getting just enough strikeouts.  However, shoulder injuries scare me.  I'd like to see a healthy season from him, but if the Twins wait until after 2014, he'll be a year from free agency and a riskier trade target.  He might be a phenomenal buy-low candidate, but there's huge risk.  He's under contract for two more seasons at $10 million per (team option in 2015, but it's a slam dunk if he's healthy).  That figure is a bargain for a pitcher as talented as Cueto.  Remember, the Reds still have one more guy on this list.

Doug Fister - Age 30 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

The oldest pitcher on my list, I like Fister because I think his skill set should age well.  He doesn't rely heavily on a hard fastball, but he misses enough bats to be effective.  His strikeout rate hovers around league-average, but his walk and ground ball rates are superb.  Since he'll be 32 when he hits free agency, he won't require a massive extension to keep him past 2015.  However, that also works against the Twins as he would be an equally attractive trade chip to other teams looking for good pitching.  The Tigers have already indicated that they are willing to move Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer (both coming tomorrow; suspense!), so why not Fister as well? 

Yovani Gallardo - Age 28 in 2014, $11.25 million in 2014, $13 million team option in 2015

I'm not super excited about Gallardo.  His strikeout rate fell significantly and his average fastball velocity dipped from 92.6 in 2011 to 90.7 in 2013.  In addition, his walk rate is above league-average and he's always given up his share of home runs.  He does induce ground balls and his strikeout rate is still acceptable, but there are enough signs to make Gallardo a risky acquisition.  If he could be acquired cheaply, he would slot in as a nice, safe number 3/4 starter.  He has a $13 million team option for 2015 but I'm not sure he'll be worth it at that point.  Then again, he's young and talented, and 2013 could be just a blip on the radar. I'm wary.

Mat Latos - Age 26 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016

I really want to like Mat Latos.  He has a cat named Cat Latos, which is funny.  However, that cat has a blog and a twitter account, which I do not approve of.  I actually think it would be funnier if Mat spelled his name correctly and had a cat named Catt Latos.  I can't really fault him for any of this.

As a pitcher, I like Mat Latos.  Since 2010, Latos has thrown just a hair under 800 innings and hasn't had an xFIP higher than 3.79 in any of those seasons.  His strikeout rate has been slowly dropping, from 25.3% in 2010 down to 21.2% in 2013.  His walk and ground ball rates have remained stable, both hovering right around league-average.  His fastball is about a mile per hour slower than it was in 2010, but he still sits 92-93 and has an extremely effective slider.  Latos is just 26 and is under contract for $7.25 million in 2014.  After that, he has one more year of arbitration.  Once more, he is the third Reds pitcher on this list, and that doesn't even consider Aroldis Chapman.  I don't see any way they can keep all four, so I hope the Twins are calling to see who they can get their slimy fingers on. 

Five down and five to go.  Will your favorite soon-to-be-free agent starting pitcher make my list?  Probably.  You all go to MLB Trade Rumors too.  See you tomorrow!

Minnesota Twins Offseason Extravaganza: 1997

State of the Team

1997 Record:  68-94, 4th in the AL Central

1997 Overview:  1996 looked like a step in the right direction, 1997 was a step into horse manure.

1998 Outlook:  Avert your gaze.

Players Lost - Free Agency

One thing you can't fault the Twins for in the 90s was losing key players to free agency.  It helped that they didn't really have many key players during that era, but that's just being rude when you really think about it.  The Twins did lose two members of their '97 rotation though.

Rich Robertson was a waiver claim after the '94 season, and really, he was perfectly acceptable for someone who was completely unwanted by his original team.  Of course, he did get progressively worse each season, going from a 3.83 ERA in limited duty in 1995 to a 5.69 ERA in way too much duty in 1997.  The Angels signed him, he pitched 5.2 innings for them, he gave up 10 runs for them, he never pitched in the Majors again.

Scott Aldred left for the fancy new Tampa Bay Devil Rays franchise.  It's understandable why the Rays would want him, he had a 6.10 ERA in 199.1 innings with the Twins in '96 and '97.  Of course, the Rays never let him start and they got 55.2 decent innings (4.37 ERA) out of him in '98 and '99.  He later became a player to be named later.  What a career! 

Players Gained - Free Agency

So many weird veterans...

Otis Nixon was 39 and still very fast.  The Twins spent $2 million bucks on him and he provided an 85 OPS+ and 37 stolen bases.  He was awful in the field, likely because he was old as crap.  Some argue that Nixon's suspension during the '91 World Series swayed that series toward the Twins.  I'm not sure that's true, but I also don't care because THE TWINS WON!!!!!!  WHOOWOOWOWOOO!!!!!!

Brent Gates went to the University of Minnesota, so the Twins had to sign him.  He had a 69 OPS+ in 1998 but then exploded for a 70 OPS+ in 1999.  Hmm.  Not many players improve offensively at 29.  Steroids?

The Twins signed Orlando Merced for $800K, got a 98 OPS+ out of him in limited duty, and traded him and Greg Swindell for prospects on July 31.  Merced played his final game on my 21st birthday.  I celebrated with him. 

They signed 38-year-old Mike Morgan for $1.3 million.  He started 17 games, posted a 3.49 ERA and then the Twins flipped him in August for a player to be named later.  That player became Scott Downs, who never pitched for the Twins but is still in the Majors in 2013.  He'll be 38 in March.  Circle of Life!

Finally, the Twins landed Ricky Bones, sent him to the Minors, he pitched well, they released him and he sucked for the Royals later that season.  It's strange, but true.

TRADEZ!

OH DOCTOR!  The Twins made a doozy of a trade.  They got tired of incumbent starting center fielder Rich Becker and shipped him off to New York for Alex Ochoa.  See, the Twins had signed a guy who was drafted in 1978, they didn't need Becker anymore.  Becker slipped a bit in 1997, but had a pretty good 1996 season.  Some internet dork immortalized it here.  Becker was a real OBP guy for about a million teams over the next three seasons.  He posted a .375 OBP, but slugged lower than that and only his .235.  He was out of the Majors after 1998.

The Twins also made another minor deal this off-season, sending Chuck Knoblauch to New York for four dudes including Eric Milton and Christian Guzman.  If you really want to read more about that insignificant trade, you can click here.

Your funeral.

Expansion Draft Fever!

We already learned that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were joining MLB baseball, but the Arizona Diamondbacks were entering as well.  So many dangerous animals.  The Twins lost Brent Brede and Damian Miller to the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft.  Greedy bas...

Brede hit .226 in 98 games with the D-Backs and disappeared forever (untrue).  Miller had a fine 11-year career, posting 9.0 WAR as a mostly part-time catcher.  

Biggest Splash

Oh goodness, it was the Knoblauch trade.  Pimpin' links aside, that trade was excellent for the Twins.  Knoblauch wanted out and the Twins got four prospects and cash for him.  Guzman and Milton had productive careers in Minnesota.  Brian Buchanan netted the Twins Jason Bartlett down the line.  Danny Mota contributes a lot of questions to The Starters (formerly The Basketball Jones).

Biggest Miss

Personally, I would have kept Becker and saved the money they spent on Nixon, but that's very nit-picky.  Both guys had value, although Becker was roughly 50 years younger.

My Own Personal Heartbreak

I actually loved Knoblauch, so I was sad to see him go.  He's one of the best Twins of the past 25 years, no doubt about it.

Arbitrary Overall Assessment:  C

The Twins didn't do anything super noteworthy during this off-season.  Their biggest move was made more out of necessity than anything else.  The Knoblauch trade worked out well, but not for a couple years.  The team did little to try to win in 1998 and basically signed a bunch of old dudes while trading away their best player.  That said, the Knoblauch trade was positive in the long run, so they get a decent grade.

Next week, we'll look at the 1998 off-season.  See you then!

The Minnesota Twins need starting pitching: Top 30 Targets Part 3

I've been writing so much about free agency lately, it's sick!  Last week, I addressed the position players the Twins should target.  This week, I've been counting down my top 30 starting pitching targets for the Twins.  If you missed any of this mini-dynasty, I'll provide you some links.  Since I wrote these, things have changed, but most of my ideas aren't super player-specific, more of an overall philosophy. 

Translation:  please click these links so I can feel cool.

Infielders

Outfielders and Catchers

Relief Pitchers and Starting Pitchers 30-21

Starting Pitchers 20-11

Now that all the shameless self-promotion is clear, we can get back to the starting pitcher countdown.  Here are the top ten starting pitching targets for the Twins, in my opinion (which should be obvious because I am writing this):

10.  Scott Feldman

Nothing sexy about Scott Feldman.  This is not an indictment on his looks either, he just doesn't excite me as a pitcher.  His walk rates are generally good, his strikeout rates are in the Twins Zone and he's reasonably young.  His ground ball rate was great in 2013 and with the Twins' good infield defense, he could be a decent fit.  If Feldman is the second or third best starting pitcher the Twins sign, the off-season could be categorized as a success.  If he's the crown jewel of the 2013 off-season?  Yawn.  

9.  Bronson Arroyo

HOT RUMOR!!  If news reports are to be believed, Bronson Arroyo is somewhere in the Twin Cities area, lurking, waiting to sign a contract with our beloved Twins.  Be on the lookout for a man in his late 30s with long hair and likely carrying an acoustic guitar and silly-walking like in Monty Python.  Do not approach Arroyo, as he could recede back to Cincinnati if spooked. 

I've already started to talk myself into Arroyo on the Twins, so that pretty much means he won't sign here.  I was concerned about his age and lack of strikeouts, but overall, he looks like a pretty valuable pitcher.  He's thrown over 2000 innings in the past 10 seasons and he's transformed from a control-enthusiast to a control-specialist.  He'll be 37 next season and all pitchers are healthy until they aren't healthy any longer.  If he does sign here, I'll be interested in the contract he receives.  Anything more than two years or more than $10 million per season will elevate my levels.  Stay below those thresholds and I'll be chill.

According to Baseball Reference, his nickname is Saturn Nuts. I'm sensing a love-hate relationship starting here.  If he even sings once, I want his contract voided.

8.  Ervin Santana

Not a huge fan.  He throws hard but that doesn't translate to strikeouts, so what's the point?  His career strikeout rate is lower than Scott Baker's.  It's only slightly higher than Kevin Slowey's.  Santana is also prone to wildness and home runs.  He's averaged over 200 innings the past four seasons, so he certainly has value.  He's a good pitcher, I'll say that.  He's reportedly looking for 5 years and over $100 million.  That's crazy.  Fans can harp on the Twins for being cheap all they want, but signing Santana to a contract that averages over $20 million per year is irresponsible.  I'd rather my team be cheap than crazy.

7.  Scott Kazmir

Kazmir will be only 30 next year.  That's insane.  I remember being jealous of my friend Brad because he had Kazmir on his fantasy team.  That was in 2005.  I've been jealous for 9 years now.  After completely falling apart in 2010-2011 and then missing all of 2012, Kazmir rebounded really nicely in 2013.  He still throws basically as hard as he ever has and he still has great stuff.  His 4.04 ERA in 2013 isn't special, but his 3.36 xFIP shows that he may be a huge upside signing.  His 2013 could end up looking like a huge fluke, but I'm not sure that it will.  He'd be a lot higher up my list if I could just get one more year to look at him.  The Twins won't have that luxury, so if they want him, they need to be bold.  I like him, I'd go 3-4 years if needed. 

6.  Ubaldo Jimenez

Is Jimenez consistent?  Here are his last 5 xFIPs - 3.59, 3.60, 3.71, 4.98, 3.62.  I can explain the 4.98!  Strikeout rate dipped, walk rate spiked, strand rate dipped, ground ball rate plummeted, home run/fly ball rate spiked.  There, it all makes sense now.  Why did all of those rates change so dramatically in 2012?  I'm not sure.  His 2013 looks a lot like his 2009, 2010 and 2011.  If his 2012 had matched, he'd be looking at a massive payday.  Instead, he'll have to settle for a tremendous payday.  It's a subtle difference, I agree.  I'm not worried about him as a pitcher, but he's far too rich for the thrifty Twins, so he rates a bit lower than others. 

5.  A.J. Burnett

Burnett would probably be number 1 on my list if there was any chance that he would actually sign here.  His combination of high ground ball rate and good strikeout rate is so enticing.  He has also really gotten his control under control (ugh) as he has aged.  Of course, none of this matters as Burnett is reportedly unwilling to pitch anywhere that isn't within walking distance of his home in Maryland (exaggeration).  Now there are reports that he may retire.  Regardless of what he chooses to do, he won't pitch for the Twins in 2014. 

What if the Twins just went insane and offered him 2 years, $36 million?  I bet he'd consider that.  If things really fall apart and all their targets sign elsewhere, I'm not so sure that wouldn't be a smart offer to make.  They have the money, right?

4.  Dan Haren

We would feel a lot differently about Dan Haren if we called him "Dangerous" Danny Haren like I want us to.  That would give him an edge.  Instead, he's a fairly boring option.  He doesn't throw hard, he's had some recent ups and downs and he isn't really a big name anymore.  He is consistent though.  His xFIP has been 4 or below since 2005.  His ground ball rate has been diminishing and his strikeout rate is dipping (as a trend, it was up a bit last season), but his walk rate is strikingly consistent, and low.  His 2012 and 2013 seasons were disappointing, likely as he learned to deal with that diminishing ground ball rate.  He seemed to figure it out in the second half of 2013, posting an 3.40 xFIP as his strand rate and BABIPs stabilized.  He averaged well over 200 innings from 2005-2011 and he's still just 33.  He never really relied on power stuff, so his age is less of a factor.  He signed a one year, $13 million dollar deal for last season and a similar deal would be very reasonable for the Twins. 

3.  Ricky Nolasco

You know how some pitchers outperform their peripheral stats?  Nolasco consistently underperforms relative to his peripherals.  His walk rates have always been excellent and his strikeout rates were consistently good until they weren't any more.  His career 3.52 K/BB ratio is just fantastic!  His career 4.37 ERA is not.  His career xFIP of 3.75 is good!  His dipping K rate is bad.  He's a yoyo.  He's averaged nearly 200 innings in his last three seasons and he is coming off his best season ever in 2013.  He'll be 31 next year and should be looking to cash in.  For a reasonable contract, I'd be interested.  I worry his contract offers will exceed "reasonable."  Oh, he's a slider enthusiast, and I'm not so sure we like that 'round these parts. 

2.  Josh Johnson

OH HOT DAMN A LOCAL BOY!  Johnson was atrocious last season, his first with Toronto.  Perhaps he didn't get used to drinking maple syrup every day?  If you look closely, there are easy ways to explain away his poor performance.  First, his strand rate was extremely low - 63.3% compared to his career rate of 74.2%.  Second, his BABIP was .356, an astronomical number even if you don't believe in BABIP.  Third, his home run to fly ball rate was 18.5%, over twice has high as his 8.2% career value.  Add all those misfortunes together and you get a 6.20 ERA but a 3.58 xFIP.  He'll be just 30 next season and won an ERA title only four short seasons ago. 

"BUY LOW," shouted the man.  The Twins should offer one year and $whateverittakes million to get Johnson.  If it takes two years, go for it.  Three years?  Yeah, maybe.  18 years?  Don't be stupid. 

1.  Matt Garza

I've written this before, but Garza's debut is one of my fondest memories of recent Twins past.  He was just such a delightful spaz that evening.  I enjoyed his competitive personality and while he may legitimately have a screw loose, he is a solid pitcher.  His 2013 was rocky, but he was coming off of a couple legit injuries.

In 2011 and 2012, he looked like a budding ace.  He had great strikeout rates, improved control and a suddenly solid ground ball rate.  His ground ball rate plummeted last season, but his line drive rate jumped far beyond his career norm.  I imagine those rates will even out.  With a relatively stable strikeout rate, and ever-improving walk rate and no real noticeable loss of velocity, Garza would be an excellent target for his age 30-34 seasons.  A five-year deal seems more than reasonable and I'd pay him big money. 

Would the Twins do it?  Would they bring back someone they once jettisoned for Delmon Young?  I have no idea.  I Googled "Matt Garza Twins hate" and found nothing.  It seems the waters are clear.  Garza isn't an "ace" but he's a very good pitcher and would anchor this rotation.  Projections seem to fall in the 4 years, $60 million range for Garza.  The Twins might need to exceed that.  Personally, I'd go 5 and 80 and hope he wants to come back.  That's a lot of money.  Deep breath. 

Special Note:  Masahiro Tanaka.  I learned long ago to stick to what I know and I know nothing of Japanese baseball.  If he's as good as advertised, he'd be number 3 on this list.  Since I can't speak of him with any authority or come up with any "jokes" about him, I'll just leave him here. 

So there we are.  Tons of free agents rated and reviewed for your reading pleasure.  Who will the Twins actually sign?  I have no clue.  I hope they are shockingly active.  I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year.  How wild would that be?  Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring.  He starts calling everyone "playa."  Constant Finger Guns.  It would be amazing.  Make it happen, TR.

The Minnesota Twins need starting pitching: Top 30 Targets Part 2

Welcome back to my top 30 Free Agent Starting Pitchers countdown!  Earlier today, we looked at 30-21 and if you missed it, click here to be brought to a field of lackluster options.  The names get a little better today.  You'll find as you read my list that I place a fair amount of emphasis on innings pitched.  The last thing I want is to watch another 11th or 12th starter thrust into a game when that person should be pitching for Rochester (or New Britain [or the Saints]).  This happened all too often over the past few seasons, so I'm willing to sacrifice some ability for durability.

Since time is money, let's get back to the countdown.

20.  Jason Vargas

Jason Vargas is the King of Unexciting Options.  He's 30, he's thrown over 550 innings the past three seasons and he doesn't walk too many batters.  He does not throw hard and he does not strike out a lot of batters.  He isn't terrible.  That's not much to say about a pitcher.  If the Twins signed him, I'd shrug and say, "yeah, sounds about right."  If he's cheap, then he could be as good/valuable as Kevin Correia was in 2013.  Yay?

19.  Paul Maholm

Maholm is basically a left-handed Vargas.  He strikes out slightly more batters, but he throws a bit softer.  He's 31 and isn't as durable as Vargas.  I rank him ever so slightly higher because he is left-handed.  He's a less precise, but better version of Scott Diamond.  He also falls into the "yeah, that makes sense" category of potential Twins free agent targets.  Aim higher, Terry Ryan!

18.  Chris Capuano

We've officially reached the "I'm intrigued" portion of the countdown.  The top 18 pitchers are all players I would be interested in watching as Twins next season.  Since returning to the Majors in 2010, Capuano has had good control, good strikeout rates and mixed success.  Capuano's 2013 doesn't look pretty - ERA of 4.26, WHIP of 1.41, but his peripheral stats look pretty nice.  He had a solid walk rate and decent strikeout rate.  He was undone by a .334 BABIP and some injuries.  He's 35, so a one- or two-year deal would be appropriate.  At the right cost, he could be a good pickup. 

17.  Hiroki Kuroda

It ain't happenin' part 1.  It seems he's staying with the Yankees.  Kuroda is an excellent, consistent pitcher.  He's averaged 200 innings with an ERA around 3.30 for the past four seasons.  His peripheral stats are very consistent as well.  He's also 38 and declined a qualifying offer, meaning the Twins would have to give up their second-round pick to sign him.  He's a fine pitcher, but this isn't the right fit for the player or the team. 

16.  Scott Baker

Baker only threw 15 innings in 2013, but 15 more innings than he threw in 2012.  He's 32 and it is very uncertain if he will be an effective pitcher after the injuries he's had.  When last healthy, Baker was outstanding in 2011, posting a 3.14 ERA and a nearly 4:1 K:BB ratio.  He also threw just 134.2 innings that season.  If the Twins can get Baker for a year and $5-6 million, he could exceed all expectations and the Twins would have a 32-year-old effective starter with trade value.  On the other hand, he could be a complete waste of time and money.  Baker is risky, and I'm not sure the reward is as high as I'd like.  I still like the idea, even though I know it could go kaboom in a hurry.  If his value is diminished even more than I think and he can be signed for $2-3 million, then I think it's a no-brainer.

15.  Colby Lewis

Lewis missed all of 2013 with an injury, so his stock might be low enough to take advantage of.  He has been very effective since returning from Japan in 2010.  In just over 500 innings, he has a 3.93 ERA, 458 strikeouts and only 135 walks.  He fits the Twins' profile in a lot ways.  He limits walks, doesn't throw super hard and he's probably going to be cheap.  His strikeout rate may dip after the injury, but he's an attractive buy low candidate with upside. 

14.  Johan Santana

This is such a sentimental ranking.  Santana missed all of 2013 and he is older than Lewis and Baker.  He also missed all of 2011 and half of 2012, so his health track-record is not cool lately.  His most recent surgery initially looked like a career-ender, but that does not seem to be the case.  All logic would lead the Twins to pass and look elsewhere, but it's too hard to remember how awesome Santana was in the 2000s.  No pitcher would be more exciting to me, simply because of my history as a fan of his.  I want him to come back healthy, make dudes look silly on change-ups and ride a renaissance to the Hall of Fame.  If only because there is a slight possibility that this could happen, I want it to happen in Minnesota.  I think the Twins should do whatever it takes to get Santana and give our jaded fans a thrill, even if it is a fleeting thrill. 

13.  Bartolo Colon

Colon will be 41 next season, but he was very effective in 2012 and then better in 2013.  His transformation to a late-career control specialist is quite impressive.  He apparently already has a one-year deal from the A's, so the Twins would need to trump their offer with more money and/or more years.  I'm not sure I want a 42-year-old under contract, so more money would be the way to go.  According to FanGraphs, he was worth almost $20 million last season.  The Twins have money to spend, and if they offered an extravagant number, they could probably get him for a year.  He'd probably be pretty good, but where does that really get the franchise in the long-term?  He's a good pitcher, but not a good fit. 

12.  Tim Hudson

It ain't happenin' part 2.  Hudson is a great pitcher and he's had a great career.  He's 38 and he always seems to outperform his peripheral stats.  I can't imagine a pitcher of Hudson's caliber signing with a terrible team just to be a mentor to young players.  He's likely staying with Atlanta or heading for a different good team.  He's got just a few more seasons left to chase a Championship.  He'll probably be great for whatever non-Twins team he signs with. 

11.  Phil Hughes

Youth!  Most of Hughes' value seems to come from his age.  At 27, he's a baby compared with some of the players I've written about so far.  However, he comes with extremely varied success and more bad seasons than good.  He's never thrown 200 innings, he's never had a season as a starter with an ERA under 4.19 and he's very home run prone.  His strikeout and walk rates are solid and his 4.39 xFIP in 2013 is far better than his 5.19 ERA.  The move from new Yankee Stadium to Target Field should help with the home run problem, but is a ballpark change enough to eliminate the problems Hughes has had for almost seven seasons? 

I'm skeptical.  He may have upside, but his age also plays against the Twins.  He could easily command a 3 or 4 year deal based on the good factors addressed above and his youth.  It would be a shame to be tethered to a player for 3 or 4 years and watch him perform as he had his entire career, especially when all the reasons to sign Hughes are based on the hope that a "change of scenery" is all he needs.  If I'm investing in a long-term deal for a lot of money, I'd like more tangible reasons to make that deal.  Also, while Hughes strikes out more batters than the average Twins pitcher, his career 19.7% strikeout rate is just a hair higher than Scott Baker's career 19.1%.  Something to think about. 

I see a lot of Twins fans penciling Hughes into the Twins' rotation for the next couple seasons.  I'm not sure that's what we really want.  Tomorrow, I'll address the top ten pitchers on my list.  That list includes some very expensive players who likely have no shot of landing here.  That said, my list is my list and I get to make my list and deliver my list.