Minnesota Twins Makin' Moves - Ryan Doumit for Sean Gilmartin and more!

The Twins have been busy this off-season.  They started with a bang, signing Jason Bartlett to a minor league deal.  From there, they made some minor additions to the starting rotation, adding Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes.  In all, the Twins suddenly seemed committed to contending and shockingly committed to spending some Pohlad dough.  The Twins have continued to be busy, so I thought it would be fun to recap some of their recent moves.

Liam Hendriks designated for assignment

This move surprised me, but didn't bother me.  It was very similar to the Joe Benson DFA during the 2013 season.  I had high hopes for the player once upon a time, but those hopes had waned and their losses will almost certainly have no effect on the Twins in the short- or long-term.  Hendriks was the Twins' 2011 Minor League Pitcher of the Year and had looked like a potential back-end starter.  He made his MLB debut in that 2011 season, at the ripe age of 22.

His brief MLB career has been somewhere between a tire fire and a blimp explosion, depending on how you use the "terrible things" spectrum.  In 156 innings, Hendriks has a 6.06 ERA, 100 strikeout and 46 walks.  His 2 and 13 record means little, but looks really, really bad.  Hendriks shuffled between AAA and Minnesota for most of 2012 and 2013 and never found a groove in the Majors. 

He'll be just 25 next year and he has had some success with AAA Rochester.  His 3.61 ERA in 254 innings looks nice, but last season he had a 4.67 ERA in 16 starts.  In addition, his AAA strikeout rate is a paltry 16.9%, significantly below the MLB average and likely much higher than he could ever actually produce against Major League hitters.  In the Minors, Hendriks walks just about no one.  In the Majors, he walks some guys.  With his stuff and lack of a strikeout pitch, that difference is massive. 

I like Hendriks, but I'd say there is a roughly 0.0001% chance the Twins ever regret this move. 

Jason Kubel is signed to a Minor League Contract

Welcome back, Kubes!  Just two seasons ago, Kubel hit .253/.327/.506, good for a 116 wRC+.  He was basically 16% better than the average offensive player.  One season later, he posted a .216/.293/.317 line, good for a 61 wRC+.  He was roughly 16% better than the average 8th grader.  The Diamondbacks shipped him off to the Indians for a PTBNL in late August and did so with absolutely zero regret.  He barely played in Cleveland. 

How could he fall so far in one season?  He hit 30 home runs in 2012 and just 5 in 2013.  Kubel did sport an outrageously high 19% home run to fly ball ratio in 2012, which likely aided his home run total.  That said, most of his other peripheral numbers were right in line with his 2009-2011 averages, including walk rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate.  However, in 2012, his strikeout rate actually jumped about 5 points.  Then, it jumped another 5 points in 2013. 

It's very hard to hit consistently when you strikeout 30% of the time.  As a Twin, Kubel never had a strikeout rate above 21.4% (2011).  This rate has climbed in each of his last four seasons and it could be the reason why he was available on a MiLB deal.  That said, it's a low-risk, medium-reward deal.  Kubel has a clear avenue to the DH job (especially considering the Twins most recent move) and could even find time in the outfield as the Twins seem to be completely punting outfield defense right now.  If Kubel can get his contact issues under control, he could hit .250/.310/.400 or something around there and provide nice value as a DH/OF.  That's basically what Ryan Doumit provided last year.  More on him later.

Mike Pelfrey is signed for 2 years, $11 million

I did not like this move.  My knee-jerk reaction was to create a satire piece where teams thank Terry Ryan for taking Pelfrey off the market.  It's right here, if you missed it.  After thinking about the move more, I don't dislike it as much.

I don't mind Mike Pelfrey in theory, I just don't like watching him pitch.  He works really slowly and I've got things to do.  That said, he had been very durable in his career, prior to his TJ surgery.  If he can get back to being a reliable 200-inning starter, he'll have tons of value at his rate.  Getting back to that durable starter might not be the slam dunk that some Pelfrey defenders think it will be though.  He did have major surgery.  However, the success rate for guys after TJ is pretty high and he'll be just 30 next season.  I imagine he'll be back to his durable, slow, chapped lip self in 2014. 

I have warmed to this move.  By definition, fifth starters are not sexy.  Reliable fifth starters are probably undervalued though.  Pelfrey isn't sexy, but he's tall.  That's something.

Ryan Doumit is traded to the Atlanta Braves for Sean Gilmartin

Wow, this move is pleasantly surprising.  As I stated earlier, it's possible that the Twins could replace Doumit's production with a guy they just signed to a Minor League contract.   The Twins wisely signed Doumit for 3 million bucks in 2012 and got a 114 OPS+ from him.  They extended him for two more years during that season, at a reasonable rate.  However, he regressed offensively in 2013 and posted just a 96 OPS+.  In addition, he consistently rated as one of the worst defensive catchers and one of the worst at pitch framing. 

The Twins were able to find a suitor, and in an NL park no less!  Getting anyone for Doumit is impressive considering his age and defensive limitations.  Getting a 2011 first-round pick and the number 4 prospect in a system is very impressive.  Sean Gilmartin is a left-handed starter with a high 80s fastball, three secondary offerings and good command/control.  Sure, a hard-throwing lefty would have been nice, but those guys are superstars or super prospects.  Ryan Doumit is a role player, so you can't expect the World.

Gilmartin has a AAA strikeout rate of 15.5%, a number that Liam Hendriks scoffs at.  Gilmartin is just 23, he doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster for a couple years and has less AAA experience than Hendriks.  Advantage/scoffs, Gilmartin!  Plus, maybe he can learn a cutter or something and become a big star.  If you're going to load up on young starters who don't throw hard, they should be left-handed and they should have good command. 

I like this move for baseball reasons, but I will miss Doumit.  There was something about those black eyes that just hypnotized me.  I hope he plays well for the Braves.  The Twins have been active this off-season and I'm excited to see what comes next.  Personally, I think the Twins are batting 1.000 right now.  Each move helps in some way and that's really all you can ask for.  

Minnesota Twins 40 Man Roster Analysis: Starting Pitchers

Welcome to my second annual trip through the Twins' 40-man roster.  I can say annual because I did this last year.  In this series, I will analyze the players on the current 40-man roster, with an eye toward 2015.  Why 2015 and not 2014?  While I do think the Twins will be better next season, I don't see them in any sort of playoff hunt for at least one more year.  Therefore, I want to see who will contribute to the next notable Twins team. 

My plan is to break this into four parts, starting with the starting pitchers today, and working my way through the rest of the roster throughout the coming days.  I'll order the players from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute.  When I use that word, I really am looking for contribution.  It's not enough to simply be on the roster, I want to know who will help guide the team to their next AL Central Title/first round sweep.  Kidding!  That's not cool.

Also, the Twins do need a roster spot for when they officially sign Mike Pelfrey.  I think three of the first four names are DFA candidates (one is not eligible) and could be off the roster before you read this.

Kris Johnson

It confuses me that he's on the 40-man roster right now.  I would have assumed he'd have been designated for assignment when the Twins needed the 40-man spot after the Phil Hughes signing.  Instead, the Twins let Liam Hendriks go and kept Johnson.  Hendriks would likely be in this very spot on my list, but I still would have kept him. 

Johnson is nothing special at all.  He's 29 and he's had some muted AAA success.  He was 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 21 starts with Pittsburgh's AAA team last season.  Of course, he barely posted a K/9 higher than 6 and he isn't some extreme control specialist or anything.  He's left-handed.  That's pretty much the only compliment I can pay him and it's not really a compliment, more of a fact.  He very well could be on the roster in 2015, but if he's pitching, the rotation is in shambles or the goal of pitching was changed from preventing runs to allowing runs. 

Logan Darnell

A lot of what I wrote about Kris Johnson can be applied to Darnell.  He's left-handed, doesn't strike out many batters and while his MLB debut would be a nice moment for him, it would likely signify that things have gone horribly wrong.  He was just added to the 40-man, so he has to remain there until after Spring Training.  He is five years younger than Johnson, so I have no problem with keeping him on the 40-man for now.  That said, if the Twins need a spot in June or July or something, I'd have no problem removing him and risking his loss. 

Scott Diamond

This may seem really high on this list, but I think 2014 is his final season with the Twins.  First, Diamond is out of options.  Second, he is arbitration-eligible in 2015.  Third, he just isn't very good.  His 2012 season really throws off our analysis of Diamond as a player, but I think we need to admit that his magic season was mostly magic.  His strand rate, ground ball rate and walk rate were all far off his career averages (and minor league numbers).  He made something work in 2012, but it doesn't appear to have been something sustainable.  Unless he finds that magic again in 2014, there seems to be little reason to keep him around.  In my mind, he doesn't seem like the type to translate to relief successfully either. 

Andrew Albers

I don't really think Albers is any better than Diamond, but he has less service time and will be cheaper going forward.  He has options as well, which is big because he can just be called up if the Twins need a starter over the next two seasons.  I also think that he could have slightly more success because he has demonstrated consistently good control.  That said, he's basically a rotation replacement who can be called upon when needed.  I don't expect him to be anything more than a fifth/sixth starter, but he could fill in nicely when injuries hit.

Kevin Correia

The Correia signing has already worked out better than I could have ever anticipated.  When you read my analysis of the signing, you'll see that I had logical reasons to hate the signing, but I was wrong about nearly all of them.  I was in the camp of Correia potentially taking starts from more talented players, but that almost never happens with the volatility of pitchers.  Correia gave the Twins consistent innings and performed better than I had anticipated.  All that said, I would be shocked if he was on the roster next season.  He is a free agent after 2014 and the Twins have young pitchers who will hopefully be ready before 2014 ends, much less when 2015 starts.   

Trevor May

I'm not sure that May will be ready by 2015.  His 2013 season was better than his 2012 season, but not by a whole lot.  However, he did improve and that is important.  He might be a guy who adjusts slowly.  May isn't going to be a number 1 or 2 or even 3 starter.  However, he's been very durable as a Minor League pitcher and perhaps his long-term role is a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter who gives the team a start every five days and doesn't make a fool of himself.  That type of player is quite valuable (look at how much Mike Pelfrey just got paid), but that type of player is even more valuable when they make the league minimum.  May isn't a super prospect any longer, but he's starting to become undervalued a bit, in my opinion. 

Vance Worley

I wonder if Worley's 2011 season is clouding my judgment too much.  Looking at that 2011 season, I'm starting to see more fluke than I'd like to see.  First, his strikeout rate was the highest rate he had posted since rookie ball.  Second, his strand rate was very high - 78.2%.  His ground ball rate dipped, but his home run/fly ball rate dipped too, masking one deficiency with some luck.  His BABIP was .285, which isn't super low, but much lower than his typical MLB or high Minors season.  Everything else was in line with his career numbers, but those differences would explain his success.  I do think Worley could translate to the bullpen if necessary.  He might be too fastball-dependent to thrive as a starter, but maybe a move to shorter appearances would make his stuff look better.  Worley is in the same boat as Diamond, but he's a year younger and strikes out more batters.  I think he could still be kicking around in 2015, but I'm not sure he'll be a full-time starter by then.

Samuel Deduno

I honestly do not know how to analyze Deduno.  Nothing I see looks real, but he gets results in some magical way.  His ground ball rate is elite, all of his pitches break downward and he harnessed his control in 2013.  He may not be conventional, but he gets batters out.  He has missed a fair amount of time due to injury, and he is no sure bet for Opening Day due to shoulder surgery.  It is hard for me to look at his numbers and see anything but "regression alert!" flashing brightly.  However, I'm tired of being wrong about him, so I'm going to assume he continues his tightrope walk through the Majors and contributes to the team when healthy. 

Mike Pelfrey - SUPER BONUS!!!!!

Ugh.  I really don't enjoy Mike Pelfrey.  He's a fine pitcher, I suppose, he just works too slowly for my liking.  Baseball is great, but four hour games are not.  Pelfrey got a lot of credit for his speedy recovery from TJ surgery.  He did improve in the second half, but he also wore out by September.  The hope that he will improve in his second year after TJ is justifiable, but how much improvement should we expect?  He wasn't really that great to begin with, although he did have an excellent 2010 season.  He has always been good for innings, and that is important.  Plus, he'll be under contract in 2015, so I'd guess he's part of the rotation.  I can't imagine he'll be anything more than a #5 starter, but every team needs five and he'd be one of the five.  Ugh.

Phil Hughes

Hughes is under contract for 2015, so he'll contribute.  There is a slight chance that Target Field doesn't reverse all of his fortunes and he ends up as a very effective, but pricey bullpen arm.  I choose to be more optimistic.  I wrote in depth about why I like Phil Hughes for the Twins a couple weeks ago.  Basically, his splits indicate that some real improvement can be expected and the shift in ballpark will help him as well. 

Kyle Gibson

Gibson had a brutal 2013 season, but many rookies struggle in their first season.  I think Gibson has the potential to be a number 3 starter and he could reach that potential by 2015.  He has good command, good stuff and a big, durable frame.  I'm curious to see how he rebounds in 2014 and I hope he gets a long look in the Majors.  Gibson's command wasn't great with the Twins.  He also had a .350 BABIP and a 66.5% strand rate.  Those numbers should regress to the mean, his command should rebound and I think he'll be great when he re-enters the Twins rotation.

Ricky Nolasco

I liked the Nolasco signing for more symbolic reasons than on-field reasons.  Even so, I see almost no way that Nolasco isn't contributing positively in 2015.  Since 2008, Nolasco has averaged just under 200 innings, 13 wins and an ERA of 4.30.  He improved in 2013 and the Twins have to hope those improvements are real and that he will keep down that path.  If so, he'll be great and help a lot in 2015.  If not, he has always been a reliable innings eater and that helps a lot too.

Tomorrow, I'll post my analysis of the relievers.  The list is shorter and the volatility is higher.  It should be a whole lot of fun.

Minnesota Twins Offseason Extravaganza: 2001

State of the Team

2001 Record:  85-77, 2nd in the AL Central

2001 Overview:  WAIT, THAT'S MORE WINS THAN LOSSES!

2002 Outlook: This winning thing is foreign to me, although I do enjoy it.

Players Lost - Free Agency

The Twins lost five players who spent time on the MLB roster, but lost little at the same time.  Jason Maxwell played two unimpressive seasons with the Twins in 2000 and 2001.  He left for Texas, didn't make their team in Spring Training and never played in the Majors again.

Quinton McCracken had a really fun name and a really bad season with the Twins in 2001.  He played just 24 games and each was poor (probably).  He left for Arizona and played pretty well in 2002, hitting .309/.367/.458.  It would be his finest season. 

Chad Allen had an impressive rookie season, hitting 10 home runs and adding 14 stolen bases.  He then shredded his knee in 2001 and was never the same.  He left for Cleveland and played 5 games for them in 2002.

Hector Carrasco left again, and we really touched on his saga last week.  Just read this; it's in there somewhere.

Finally, mid-season trade acquisition Todd Jones left for Colorado.  You can read my analysis of the Todd Jones trade here.  Basically, he never wanted to leave Detroit and it didn't seem like he wanted to come here.  Thus, he left.

Players Gained - Free Agency

Oh man, the Twins went ape this off-season.  They added four legit MLB players, including Kurt Abbott, Brian Meadows and Alex Prieto.  I mean, we all remember their illustrious Twins careers, right? 

Abbott had been a productive player once upon a time.  Of course, that was in the mid-90s, back when the Twins had no use for productive players.  Abbott was cooked by the time the Twins nabbed him and he was released during Spring Training.

Meadows was coming off of a 2001 season with the Royals where he posted a slick 6.97 ERA in 10 starts.  He did strike out 21 batters in 50 innings, so that's impressive.  Meadows was also released during Spring Training, but somehow caught on with the Pirates and played five more MLB seasons. 

Prieto would actually play for the Twins, but not until 2003.  He played 24 games for the Twins between 2003 and 2004.  He posted a pretty dope .209/.255/.302 triple slash and actually managed a -52 OPS+ in 11 plate appearances in 2003.  That was a pretty small sample.  Maybe the Twins should bring him back.

The Twins signed Jose Mijares as an amateur free agent after the 2001 season.  That signing did work out, as Mijares was a productive player for a short while.  That said, everyone in Minnesota seemed to hate him and he actually got people to take Delmon Young's side in an argument.  How odd. 

They did sign one legit MLB free agent and he did work out.  However, I want to make a joke about his name later, so he doesn't count.

TRADEZ!

The Twins made zero this off-season, so let's just talk a bit about jerking Casey Blake around instead.  In May of 2000, the Twins selected Blake off of waivers from the Blue Jays.  He played 7 games for the Twins in 2000 and didn't do much.  The Orioles selected Blake off of waivers from the Twins in late September of 2001.  Less than one month later, the Twins selected Blake off of waivers from the Orioles.  The Twins wanted and didn't want Casey Blake numerous times in the early 2000s.  We'll re-visit this saga next Monday.  Foreshadowing!

Biggest Splash

The Twins signed the freaking King of Pop to pitch for them!  I mean, he was a frail man with little non-dancing athleticism, but the PR was likely outstanding.  I mean, he could have worn his glove and his glove.  Think about it!  What?  It wasn't that Michael Jackson?  The imposter Michael Jackson was fine I guess. 

Biggest Miss

Ah, the Joe Mays extension.  Mays had an awesome 2001 season.  He was 17-13 with a 3.16 ERA and he threw 233.2 innings.  Of course, back in 2001, we weren't really looking at things like his tiny strikeout rate, his .243 BABIP, and his 78.2% strand rate.  The things that mattered were his traditional stats and his age (just 25).  Mays never posted an ERA under 5.38 for the remainder of his career.  This is something we would have seen miles away in 2013, but in 2001, we were young. 

My Own Personal Heartbreak

Quinton McCracken is still one of my favorite names in Twins history.  You can love that name just for what it is, or you can be a twelve-year-old and love it for the fact that "McCrack" is there.  Either way, I was sad to see him go before the era when I had expendable money and could have bought his jersey.  That era has not occurred yet, for the record.

Arbitrary Overall Assessment:  D

The Mays extension was a nice idea, but it worked out about as poorly as possible.  The Twins added some players who I had heard of, but also lost some players I had heard of.  Of course, as I explained last week, the Twins didn't really need to be active during the off-season because they had so much cost-controlled talent under contract and would for many years.  All they had to do was continue to draft and develop and stay the course.  It would prove to work for many years and when the drafting and developing dried up, so did the wins. 

Of course, back in 2001, the Twins didn't know they would be good for a decade and they could have beefed up the team with some good free agent signings.  They didn't and that's why they get a D.  D's get degrees though.  

Next Monday, we'll look at the 2002 off-season.  See you then!

Fans take out full-page ad to thank Terry Ryan for the Mike Pelfrey signing

Upon news of the Minnesota Twins two-year, $11 million contract with Mike Pelfrey, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Indians, Royals, White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Braves, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants and Rockies fans each took out a full-page ad in the Minneapolis Star Tribune to thank Twins General Manager Terry Ryan.

Pelfrey's signing was reported earlier today, and the Star Tribune immediately received requests to properly thank Terry Ryan for this wonderful gesture of goodwill toward each of the other 29 MLB teams.  Royals' fan Jake Williams felt it was just the right thing to do.

"Not being subjected to Pelfrey's slow work and mediocre results will certainly improve my fan experience next season, " said Williams.  "To take him off the market for two seasons is just a great show of charity for fans of all teams.  Except the Twins, of course."

An eight-year veteran, Pelfrey had a rather rocky season with the Twins in 2013.  He pitched just 152.2 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, although he did spend nearly 50 million hours walking around the mound, licking his fingers.  His 5.19 ERA likely suppressed his free agent market, and Angels' fan Ryan Garrelts is certainly thankful that Ryan sees something that seemingly no one else sees.

"Wow, his ERA was over 5 and he was just unbearable to watch,"  Garrelts stated.  "I am truly grateful that Terry Ryan came along and took Pelfrey off the market.  I have to admit to being very concerned that he would find his way onto the Angels and we'd run out of ChapStick in the Anaheim area."

Pelfrey did return from Tommy John surgery in record time and is reportedly a very nice guy.  These are two facts that did not impress Orioles' fan Derek Robertson.

"That's awesome, I'm sure he's really nice," said Robertson.  "I mean, I'm sure the opposing hitters really like him.  I'm happy he recovered from Tommy John so quickly, but should he really get credit for last April and May?  The batters could have thrown the ball up in the air and hit it themselves and they likely wouldn't have scored as many runs.  Terry Ryan is a Saint."

Pelfrey's best season was in 2010, when he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA.  Since then, Pelfrey has had two poor seasons and a major surgery, a reality pointed out by Braves' fan Erin McDougal.

"He had a good season back in 2010, but that's like saying that cereal is good before it goes soggy," philosophized McDougal.  "Sure, we know that, but there isn't a device that currently exists that makes cereal less soggy.  I'm working on it, but it's a few years away.  Mike Pelfrey is soggy cereal and I guess that makes Terry Ryan me.  Interesting thought.  Anyway, thank you to me, I guess.  I do miss having Pelfrey in the division but I think we all know that no other team was going to sign him."

When asked for comment, Mets fans were unable to respond due to a massive, collective, unprecedented giggling fit.  
  
Twins fans were less impressed with the move and seemed to express more confusion about the potential effectiveness of the move in the long-term.  This sentiment was summarized by Twins fan Gerald Stephens.

"I don't get it at all, man," stated Stephens.  "I mean, how does this make the team better?  The Vikings still need a Quarterback and they don't seem to want to find a good one.  I may not be an expert, but how does Mike Pelfrey get us to a Super Bowl?"

When informed that Pelfrey signed with the Twins to play baseball, Stephens simply stated, "Joe Mauer sucks."

Sunday's Star Tribune sports section was a record 39 pages in length.  Here is the ad that Royals fans took out for Ryan:

On a local economic level, the ad revenue generated from the fans' ads will make it possible for the Star Tribune to call each and every person who has ever expressed even the slightest amount of interest in their newspaper, newspapers in general, news in general, words and paper.  Star Tribune officials are hopeful that these calls will result in two more subscriptions.

The final piece of the Minnesota Twins 2014 rotation puzzle

Yesterday, I outlined the current starting pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster.  If you missed it, here you go.  I argue that the Twins could still use one more reliable starter for 2014 and possibly beyond.  The fact that pitchers get injured frequently and often do not develop on schedule and/or as planned, means that there are still plenty of unreliable starters on the 40-man roster. 

Today, I want to revisit my top 30 free agent starting pitchers to see if anyone remaining on the list makes sense as a member of the Twins in 2014 and perhaps going forward.  This week, the Twins have been linked to Bronson Arroyo, Matt Garza, and Mike Pelfrey.  Each of those three fall in a different tier in my eyes.  Before we look at all the tiers to see who would be a good fit to fill out the current rotation, let's look at who has signed so far.

2	Josh Johnson	Padres	1 and 8
3	Ricky Nolasco	Twins	4 and 49
4	Dan Haren	Dodgers	1 and 10
7	Scott Kazmir	A's	2 and 22
10	Scott Feldman	Orioles	3 and 30
11	Phil Hughes	Twins	3 and 24
12	Tim Hudson	Giants	2 and 23
13	Bartolo Colon	Mets	2 and 20
15	Colby Lewis	Rangers	MiLB deal
17	Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	1 and 16
20	Jason Vargas	Royals	4 and 32
23	Edinson Volquez	Pirates	1 and 5
24	Roberto Hernandez	Phillies	1 and 4.5
25	Randy Messenger	Japan	3 and money
26	Roy Halladay	Blue Jays	1 and Retire

So far, so good.  The Twins boosted their rotation for 2014 and for at least the following two seasons as well.  Hughes, Nolasco and Kevin Correia can be relied upon for innings next season.  In addition, the Twins have young, talented starters like Alex Meyer, Trevor May and Kyle Gibson who could contribute as early as 2014.  Sam Deduno has looked good in flashes.  Vance Worley should probably get one more chance.  Scott Diamond is alive.  The rotation depth is better, no doubt about it. 

However, there is still the chance that any and all of the following happen next season:  Correia implodes, Deduno implodes, the young guys don't develop, Worley is cooked, Hughes and/or Nolasco get hurt.  The Twins 2011 rotation looked pretty solid too, and now we're mired in year three of a rebuild.  I think that one more high-quality starter is worth pursuing.  Let's investigate who is still available and who is worthy of an investment.

No longer interested - Jair Jurrjens, Barry Zito, John Lannan, Kevin Slowey, and Mike Pelfrey

Each of these pitchers filled out the back-end of my top 30.  I viewed each as complete fall-back options and nothing more.  I wouldn't even call their agents at this point.  Unfortunately, we know that the Twins are not only interested in Pelfrey, but have reportedly offered him a two-year contract.  I hope beyond hope that he finds a better deal or the Twins pull that offer.  Pelfrey does not improve the rotation for 2014 and would be taking a spot away from a much more talented player like Gibson, Meyer or even Deduno.  If the Twins want a guy to walk around the mound, rubbing a baseball with both hands for a minute at a time, I am willing to fill that role for 80 bucks per appearance.  Odd number, but 80 is my lucky number.  Please other teams, offer Mike Pelfrey a stupid contract.  I beg you.

Status QO - Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez

Both of these guys are talented and could be great pitchers for the next few years.  However, both are set to make more money than the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco and would cost the Twins their second-round pick in 2014.  I don't think either guy will live up to the contract they receive, especially if it approaches 5 years and/or $100 million.  Santana throws hard but barely reaches league-average strikeout rates.  Jimenez is either awesome or awful.  I think that the Twins would be better off looking elsewhere and keeping that second-round pick. 

Some Dudes - Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm, Bronson Arroyo

There is absolutely nothing wrong with any of these three.  Each has flaws and each has strengths.  Arroyo is durable like the plague and has been effective with his wacky leg kick.  Maholm and Capuano are quality, back-end, lefty starters.  What does either of these pitchers do for the organization though?  Each of the three would make the 2014 Twins better.  Great.  The 2014 Twins could possibly reach .500 with one of these three.  That's nice. 

However, if you sign these guys for more than a season, then you're potentially keeping a rotation spot from a more talented player.  It's the basic Mike Pelfrey argument I made earlier.  If Alex Meyer develops as we hope, do we really want to be in a situation where he can't crack the rotation because Paul Maholm is making a very reasonable seven million dollars for the next two seasons?  These guys are likely to be decent values for the teams that sign them.  If the Twins had missed out on Nolasco and/or Hughes, I'd be completely in favor of either of these three. 

It is important to remember that there will be guys like these available next off-season.  In fact, one or two of these very pitchers could be available next off-season.  You don't need to lock up Chris Capuano.  Chris Capuano is the robin of the bird world.  He's nice, but he's easy to find. 

Since I've concentrated so hard on who I wouldn't target, let's look at who I would target.  Basically, the Twins can go one of two ways.

Option 1 - Play it cool, sign a guy with upside, hope for magic - Johan Santana, Scott Baker, Shaun Marcum

Colby Lewis received a minor league contract.  Is any of these three guys a safer bet than Lewis?  I'm not so sure.  If the Twins can't find a good long-term candidate for the rotation, I'd be very interested in taking a flyer on any of these three.  They combined for 93.1 innings in 2013, almost all from Marcum.  Marcum pitched, but not well, posting an ERA over 5 and losing 10 games with just 1 win. 

Santana is the most sentimental choice, but he'll also be 35 when the season starts and has missed two of the last three seasons due to injuries.  He's also the most naturally talented of the three.  Realistically, Santana belongs in the first category, but I can't separate my heart from my brain.  I can't put him in a group of cast-offs, even if Kevin Slowey is in that group.

Marcum and Baker will both be 32 next season.  Both have had some success in the past and both have major injury history.  Each could regain health and regain value.  If that happened, the Twins could trade them for another asset or look to extend a reasonably young and talented pitcher for a couple more years.  This keeps the Twins from assuming any long-term risk, while also looking for upside. 

It's not an ideal plan.  Even if it works and they pitch well, the trade market could be dry in July and August, or the player could choose leave for greener pastures instead of signing an extension.  Plus, a recent report indicated that the Twins are not interested in Baker, so we're really just talking about one guy.  Ultimately, I prefer...

Option 2 - As we learned in "Brink," go big or go home - Matt Garza, A.J. Burnett

Yeah, let's get it on.  I thought for sure that the Twins would stop at Nolasco.  Then, I was even more sure that they would stop at Nolasco and Hughes.  Now, I see reports that the Twins are still in on Garza, so I've decided to just get my hopes up like crazy.  Garza would become the best pitcher in a suddenly talented rotation.  His addition, added to the additions already made, could transform the Twins into a semi-contender in 2014, if a few more dominoes fall alongside him. 

Burnett is very unlikely, but would be an excellent consolation if the Twins miss out on Garza.  Burnett has been outstanding the past two seasons and he's only about a month older than Arroyo.  If the Twins are willing to shell out three years for Arroyo, they should be willing to do the same for Burnett.  Of course, Burnett wants to stay closer to his home in Maryland. 

What if the Twins offer to move the franchise to Maryland?  Or, more likely, what if they make Burnett a crazy offer like 3 years and $45 million?  It sounds stupid, but Burnett has been worth $32 million over the past two seasons, according to Fangraphs.  He could approach $45 mil over the next three seasons.  Plus, we would reunite him with Phil Hughes.  Fun all around. 

Completely unreasonable too.

Garza is the guy for me.  He's young, he's talented, he spits a lot, and he would be around for a lot of years.  He'd become the de facto Ace of the staff.  I imagine he would require a five-year deal, but he could remain productive through each of those five seasons.  Since 2007, Garza has never been worse than good, but has often been much better.  If the Twins land Garza, this will be the rotation in 2014:

Garza

Nolasco

Hughes

Correia

Deduno (but secretly I hope it's Gibson)

I like that rotation an awful lot.  Again, it's not a playoff team's rotation, but getting we're closer.  Having those three veterans in the fold mean that if the young guys develop, the Twins could be sitting on another perennial playoff team.  Correia is gone after 2014 and the Twins could still have some money to sink into a more talented replacement.  Isn't it fun that we are even thinking like this? 

Of course, if Garza elects to go elsewhere, the Twins could always...

Hold for now, try again in 2014 - Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, Josh Johnson, and who knows who else

The Twins are building something, so they can simply improve in 2014.  Maybe the rotation ends in shambles, but the long-term building blocks of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and May don't have to go anywhere.  With that core in place for at least three more seasons, the Twins can look to get incrementally better as the next few seasons play out.  If they miss out on Garza, it would be completely reasonable to just hold for next year and see how things go.  Maybe Gibson, Meyer and May will all take huge steps forward.  Maybe Worley or Diamond will rebound.  Maybe Deduno will put it all together, stay healthy and pitch his way into my heart. 

I don't see an avenue for the 2014 Twins to make the playoffs.  The Garza scenario is enticing and could get them to the precipice.  I like the Garza scenario because it also plays out well for 2015 and beyond, even if the playoffs are a pipe dream in 2014.  The playoffs are definitely in play for the 2015 Twins.  Maybe not where we sit right now, but if they make one more big move to boost their rotation, it's not impossible.  Every move they make needs to have benefit in the short- and long-term.  That is why I support signing Garza and prefer not to sign Arroyo or Pelfrey.  For me, it's Garza or just chill.