Projecting the Hall of Fame Part II???

On Wednesday, I took on the impossible task of projecting careers in progress to determine who will make it into the Hall of Fame in the future.  If you missed it, here you go.  Today, I'm taking it a step further and looking at players who aren't even eligible because they don't have ten years of service time.  I did this last year too, and you can read that here.  This is basically an update, as some players from last year have improved or hurt their standing.

Let's get it.

Aging Well... - Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, and Adam Wainwright

Last year, I mentioned that each of these three pitchers was having a great career, but might be too old to build a Hall of Fame case.  I added the caveat that if they age well, I could end up being wrong.  So far, each is aging pretty well.  Wainwright is particularly interesting because he'll probably get some grace from the voters because he started his career as a successful closer and he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball right now.  If any of these three pitchers can maintain their current levels through age 35 or so, they become really interesting. 

Too Old V2

This group hasn't reached the required ten seasons but each player is over 30.  As such, they might not have enough time to build a longevity HOF career along the lines of Tom Glavine or Craig Biggio.  We'll keep these brief.

Ian Kinsler - Kinsler probably isn't good enough for a true Hall of Fame case anyway, but he's had a really nice, under-the-radar career.  He has good power, good speed, he makes good contact, he draws some walks and he's just a really balanced player.  His defense is either good or great depending on the metric.  If he ages well, he'll have a nice 50+ WAR career and he'll get some HOF votes.

Ryan Braun - The steroid issue is probably more relevant than his age.  I can't imagine he'll get much love when he becomes eligible.  He's still a good hitter, although it has been two seasons since he's been an outstanding hitter.  He has an uphill climb for things like All-Star appearances and year-end award votes and those things matter to the writers and voters. 

Joey Votto - I refuse to believe that this season is anything more than a blip on the radar.  His batting average is 55 points below his career figure, but so is his BABIP.  I imagine he'll bounce back next season (or in the second half of this season).  He has a career 153 OPS+, which is just insane.  However, the narrative surrounding his plate discipline is going to eat him alive when columns about his Hall of Fame candidacy are written.  It will be completely unfair and maybe we'll be past things like that by then, but despite his elite OBP skills, he's going to be a tough sell for a lot of people.

Hanley Ramirez - Ramirez is an odd choice for this category because he became a regular when he was 22.  However, he dropped off so much from 2010-2012 that it's almost like he debuted at 25.  He's back to being a good hitter, but he isn't the generational hitter that he appeared to be when he was actually 25.  Plus, his defense at short is not great.  Even so, he's young and performing well, so you never know. 

Young, Transcendent Talent

Mike Trout

Trout already owns a Rookie of the Year award, an All-Star Game MVP award, two second place MVP finishes, two Silver Sluggers, 25 WAR, a career OPS+ of 169, a great Subway campaign and...wait, why am I even bothering, he's Mike Trout!  That's all you need to know.  He's the best player in baseball and he's only 22!! 

I find it extremely hard to believe that this guy isn't in the Hall of Fame come 2035 or 2040 or whenever he becomes eligible.  If he has just two more seasons like the one he's having, he'll be at 50 WAR by age 25.  Here's the list of guys who have done that in MLB history:

• Mickey Mantle
• Ty Cobb

I'd say that's solid company.  If he does that, he can coast the rest of the way to Cooperstown.  There's going to be some Trout backlash at some point and it's going to look like comedy in hindsight.  Enjoy this guy because we don't see players like Trout very often. 

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw has an ERA under 2 since the start of 2013.  Since his rookie season (when he was 20!!!!), Kershaw's ERA is 2.37.  That's six seasons.  That's 1184.2 innings!  He is a monster player.  He has two Cy Young Awards and is comfortably working on his third.  He has led the NL in ERA and WHIP for the past four seasons.  His WHIP is under 1 since 2011.  That's 809.1 innings with fewer than one runner on base, on average. 

The best way I can describe Kershaw is that he's "Pitcher Mike Trout."  Except, Kershaw came first, so maybe Trout is "Batter Clayton Kershaw."  Either way, we need to get these two into the same league so they can face off more often. 

Looking Like Locks

Felix Hernandez

I made King Felix's Hall of Fame case when I was trying to make his 2014 AL Cy Young case a few weeks back.  Why don't you just check that out because if you don't see his candidacy by just looking at his stats, then maybe some bullet lists will help you.

Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki

The two best players in the National League.  One will win the 2014 MVP, the other will finish second.  Both guys play premium defensive positions and both guys are complete hitters.  Tulowitzki's a little older and has dealt with injuries.  McCutchen's defense doesn't match up to Tulowitzki's.  Both guys are on the Hall of Fame path and seem to be somehow getting better as well. 

??? - The category that has no category

Evan Longoria

What's going on, Longo?  Can I call you Longo?  Everyone can have an "down season" or two, but how many players have one at age 28.  Are you doing a Hanley Ramirez impression?  If so, I'd stop it.  Unlike Votto, there isn't a way to explain his decline with a luck-based stat.  His power is just not there in 2014.  Unfortunately, without power, the low contact he's often carried really sticks out.  His defense has been elite just once in the past three seasons, so he can't fall back on that anymore either. 

If this is just a one-year dip, then I still think he has a pretty decent HOF candidacy.  However, if this is some harbinger of a decline, then he wasn't Trouty enough before to have already made a case. 

Salvador Perez

I'm not sure where to put Perez just yet, so we'll just stick him here.  His defense is sublime.  He's smooth, he's agile, his arm a weapon and he handles the intangibles of the position extremely well.  Second, he's got some massive power in his bat and it's going to emerge.  Remember, catchers almost always develop the bat after the glove. 

His OPS has dipped in each of his four seasons and he does play for the Royals, so bad things can happen.  However, I think he can overcome everything, even the Royals-ness.  If he wins an MVP in the next five years, I won't be surprised at all.  I'm infatuated.

I get that these guys are all super young, but we NEED to plan ahead.  If we don't, we might get into a situation where we don't know the stats and narratives required to vote for these players.  If that happens, the Hall of Fame could cease to exist.  That would be a tragedy!  Please understand, I am simply doing my part.  Have a nice weekend, everyone!

Projecting the Hall of Fame???

The Hall of Fame inductions for 2014 were this past weekend and whenever that time comes I always start to think about the current players who might be inducted down the line.  Last year, I wrote about a multitude of players who I think have a decent or better Hall of Fame case.  I am basically updating that list, along with some new names who emerged or became eligible this season.  Tomorrow, I plan to write about younger players who aren't eligible just yet. 

I'm not going to write about everyone though.  Basically, if I think they are in the same boat as they were at this time last year, I'm not even addressing them.  If you want to take a look back, here you go:

Qualified Players 
Non-Qualified Players

As is customary, I have divided the players into some crude groups for your ease. 

Not Quite, But Notable

Much like last year, these are players who could conceivably get a few votes when they hit the ballot and might even stay on the ballot for a year or two.  They might even become the pet cause of a given sportswriter.  We'll keep things brief with these four. 

Torii Hunter - Twins fans have the unique perspective of having seen Hunter as a young player, when he was a little out of control, but extremely fun to watch.  His plate discipline improved over time and he aged extremely well.  He's your prototypical "Hall of Very Good" player but he can take solace in knowing that he is a lock for the Twins' Hall of Fame. 

Jimmy Rollins - Depending on how long he plays, Rollins could get some real "counting stat" love.  Plus, he has an MVP under his belt.  That said, he has a career OPS+ of 97 and his defense wasn't transcendent enough to compensate. 

Cliff Lee - I think he has a "late bloomer" reputation, but he did win 18 games when he was 26.  Lee is the premier command pitcher of this era, but his career ERA+ is only 118, he's 35 and nowhere near 200 wins. 

Mark Teixeira - Hall of Fame name spelling difficulty and he runs weird, so those things need to be considered.  He is not aging well and he's basically an all-power guy at this point.  If he can somehow reverse that aging curve, he could get close based on counting stats, but 500 home runs appears to be too far away right now.  Without that number, I'm not sure he gets much consideration. 

Better Chance Than Last Year

These players were all profiled last year, but they have improved their Hall of Fame stock since that time.  Actually, there is one exception...

Bobby Abreu

Abreu wasn't active last year, so I didn't include him.  I would have likely tried to make a strong case for Abreu, as I think he has had a really underrated career.  His career .291/.395/.475 batting line translates to a 128 OPS+.  Anyone who avoids outs nearly 40% of the time catches my eye.  Plus, he had good power and speed.  He was never a good defender and he didn't play a premium position.  He didn't really hit like a traditional right fielder, although that doesn't bother me. 

His peak was truly impressive.  From 1998 to 2004, here are his rWARs:  6.4, 6.1, 6.2, 5.2, 5.8, 5.3, 6.5.  Somehow, he didn't make an All-Star team until 2004 and he only made two All-Star teams in his career.  He'll finish his career with just under 300 home runs, just under 600 doubles, just under 2500 hits and just over 400 stolen bases.  He had a wonderful career.    

Even as a strong pro-Abreu guy, I still think he falls short.  His peak was great, but he never topped 3.9 rWAR in any other season and he didn't reach any big, round, impressive numbers. 

Tim Hudson

Hudson is having one of his finest seasons at age 38 coming off of a nasty ankle injury that made me call for that weird orange base that we all use in slow-pitch.  Considering how well he is pitching this season, it seems somewhat reasonable that he'll pitch well next season.  If he can make it through the 2016 season, he has a pretty decent shot at 250 career wins.  As far as pitcher wins go, 250 might be the new 300.  He's the active wins leader and we all know that big, round numbers elevate a Hall of Fame case. 

I still don't think he makes it, but coming back from last season's injury with this much success is certainly a positive.

Mark Buehrle

Buehrle isn't a great candidate, but he has a case.  His career ERA is in Jack Morris territory.  While he's won a lot of games, he's also lost a lot of games.  He's not a strikeout pitcher.  Of course, if you want to make a meta Hall of Fame argument for Buehrle, that might be where you focus.  See, he was able to have a ton of success without great stuff, right?  Maybe that proves that he's a better pitcher than the stats show?  There's a narrative to be built, but I don't have the strength.  He's had a great career; that's enough. 

Zack Greinke

Greinke's an odd choice too.  He had that one amazing season in 2009, but he's never been elite in any other season.  He was great last year, but he only threw 177 innings.  He's been great so far this season, not coincidentally his second All-Star season.  Greinke has a long way to go, but he's in the right place to make a run.  Dodger Stadium has helped many pitchers perform above their heads.  Greinke will be in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future.  It wouldn't be surprising to see him turn in a few excellent seasons before he hits 33.  If that happens, he might have a surprisingly solid HOF app (application not iOS app). 

Worse Chance Than Last Year

CC Sabathia

I was pretty high on Sabathia's chances last year, as I had only Roy Halladay and Adrian Beltre ahead of him on my non-locks list.  However, he's been pretty bad since about June of last season and he's now out for all of 2014.  Of course, he'll only be 34 next year and he has over 200 wins already.  Plus, he plays in one of the biggest markets and gets a ton of attention.  I think his chances are worse than they were at this time last year, but I still think he's in a pretty decent position if he can rebound in 2015. 

Still Young(ish), But It's Not Looking Good - Joe Mauer, David Wright, Justin Verlander and Dustin Pedroia

Yep, four guys in one paragraph.  Last year, I would have argued that Mauer and Verlander were borderline locks and that Wright and Pedroia could join them with just 2-3 more good seasons.  This would have been massively premature, as shown by the fact that each of these players is struggling in 2014, putting their "Hall" chances in jeopardy.  Mauer isn't catching (or hitting for that matter), Verlander isn't striking out batters as prolifically and Wright and Pedroia suddenly have zero power.  Each of these players is over 30 and in the decline phase of their career.  Without a post-30 renaissance, they are all headed for the Hall of Very Good. 

Locks

Miguel Cabrera

I don't think this is premature.  Cabrera is having a down season in which he's batting .309/.364/.531.  He's put together an impressive 12-year career and he's only 31.  He's won two MVPs, a triple crown and he's made 9 All-Star teams.  Unless the wheels really fall off, he's a lock for 3000 hits and 500 home runs.  Don't believe me?  If he can play just 140 games over the next four seasons and hit about .300, he'll have about 2950 hits.  Even if he's in severe decline by then, I think he can piece together 50 more hits. 

Unless something shady is involved, there's simply no way a player with 3000 hits, 500 home runs, two MVPs, a triple crown and 10+ All-Star selections is not in the Hall of Fame.  He's 18th in JAWS rankings for 3rd basemen, and he should have no issues getting into the top 12 within a couple more seasons.  He's a lock. 

Adrian Beltre

Of course, Cabrera isn't a third baseman any longer.  Beltre is and he ranks 8th among all-time 3rd basemen by JAWS.  I'm completely in on Adrian Beltre, Hall of Famer.  Last year, I waffled and decided that I didn't think he was a lock just yet.  Now, I think he's a lock and I'll go on the fake record.

He's in the middle of his 8th 5+ WAR season.  He's one of the best defensive third basemen of all-time.  Sure, his numbers dipped like crazy in Seattle, but now we're finding that seems to happen to a lot of guys.  In the five seasons since he left Seattle, he has a 138 OPS+.  He has over 2500 hits, over 500 doubles, over 1300 RBI and he'll get to 400 home runs by the end of this season.  He's just 35 as well. 

Some would argue that he needs anywhere from 1-3 more seasons like his past five, but I'm ready to vote for him right now.  I think the defense is the kicker.  It's not just that he's a great defender, he's one of the best ever.  The Hall of Fame is all about recognizing the best ever.  Beltre's a lock in my book.

If we're looking at active players who will be in the Hall of Fame one day, I think there are five locks:  Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Beltre and Cabrera.  The first three should have no difficulties, Cabrera probably needs just two or three more good seasons and Beltre should be in so long as he can maintain 80% of his current level of production through the end of his current contract. 

Some of the other guys on this list will age well and join those five.  Some will never be mentioned in their breath again.  Some guys who I will write about tomorrow might have even better cases.  Ah, intrigue!  Check back Friday for more Hall of Fame nonsense analysis!