Fans take out full-page ad to thank Terry Ryan for the Mike Pelfrey signing

Upon news of the Minnesota Twins two-year, $11 million contract with Mike Pelfrey, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Indians, Royals, White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Braves, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants and Rockies fans each took out a full-page ad in the Minneapolis Star Tribune to thank Twins General Manager Terry Ryan.

Pelfrey's signing was reported earlier today, and the Star Tribune immediately received requests to properly thank Terry Ryan for this wonderful gesture of goodwill toward each of the other 29 MLB teams.  Royals' fan Jake Williams felt it was just the right thing to do.

"Not being subjected to Pelfrey's slow work and mediocre results will certainly improve my fan experience next season, " said Williams.  "To take him off the market for two seasons is just a great show of charity for fans of all teams.  Except the Twins, of course."

An eight-year veteran, Pelfrey had a rather rocky season with the Twins in 2013.  He pitched just 152.2 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, although he did spend nearly 50 million hours walking around the mound, licking his fingers.  His 5.19 ERA likely suppressed his free agent market, and Angels' fan Ryan Garrelts is certainly thankful that Ryan sees something that seemingly no one else sees.

"Wow, his ERA was over 5 and he was just unbearable to watch,"  Garrelts stated.  "I am truly grateful that Terry Ryan came along and took Pelfrey off the market.  I have to admit to being very concerned that he would find his way onto the Angels and we'd run out of ChapStick in the Anaheim area."

Pelfrey did return from Tommy John surgery in record time and is reportedly a very nice guy.  These are two facts that did not impress Orioles' fan Derek Robertson.

"That's awesome, I'm sure he's really nice," said Robertson.  "I mean, I'm sure the opposing hitters really like him.  I'm happy he recovered from Tommy John so quickly, but should he really get credit for last April and May?  The batters could have thrown the ball up in the air and hit it themselves and they likely wouldn't have scored as many runs.  Terry Ryan is a Saint."

Pelfrey's best season was in 2010, when he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA.  Since then, Pelfrey has had two poor seasons and a major surgery, a reality pointed out by Braves' fan Erin McDougal.

"He had a good season back in 2010, but that's like saying that cereal is good before it goes soggy," philosophized McDougal.  "Sure, we know that, but there isn't a device that currently exists that makes cereal less soggy.  I'm working on it, but it's a few years away.  Mike Pelfrey is soggy cereal and I guess that makes Terry Ryan me.  Interesting thought.  Anyway, thank you to me, I guess.  I do miss having Pelfrey in the division but I think we all know that no other team was going to sign him."

When asked for comment, Mets fans were unable to respond due to a massive, collective, unprecedented giggling fit.  
  
Twins fans were less impressed with the move and seemed to express more confusion about the potential effectiveness of the move in the long-term.  This sentiment was summarized by Twins fan Gerald Stephens.

"I don't get it at all, man," stated Stephens.  "I mean, how does this make the team better?  The Vikings still need a Quarterback and they don't seem to want to find a good one.  I may not be an expert, but how does Mike Pelfrey get us to a Super Bowl?"

When informed that Pelfrey signed with the Twins to play baseball, Stephens simply stated, "Joe Mauer sucks."

Sunday's Star Tribune sports section was a record 39 pages in length.  Here is the ad that Royals fans took out for Ryan:

On a local economic level, the ad revenue generated from the fans' ads will make it possible for the Star Tribune to call each and every person who has ever expressed even the slightest amount of interest in their newspaper, newspapers in general, news in general, words and paper.  Star Tribune officials are hopeful that these calls will result in two more subscriptions.

The final piece of the Minnesota Twins 2014 rotation puzzle

Yesterday, I outlined the current starting pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster.  If you missed it, here you go.  I argue that the Twins could still use one more reliable starter for 2014 and possibly beyond.  The fact that pitchers get injured frequently and often do not develop on schedule and/or as planned, means that there are still plenty of unreliable starters on the 40-man roster. 

Today, I want to revisit my top 30 free agent starting pitchers to see if anyone remaining on the list makes sense as a member of the Twins in 2014 and perhaps going forward.  This week, the Twins have been linked to Bronson Arroyo, Matt Garza, and Mike Pelfrey.  Each of those three fall in a different tier in my eyes.  Before we look at all the tiers to see who would be a good fit to fill out the current rotation, let's look at who has signed so far.

2	Josh Johnson	Padres	1 and 8
3	Ricky Nolasco	Twins	4 and 49
4	Dan Haren	Dodgers	1 and 10
7	Scott Kazmir	A's	2 and 22
10	Scott Feldman	Orioles	3 and 30
11	Phil Hughes	Twins	3 and 24
12	Tim Hudson	Giants	2 and 23
13	Bartolo Colon	Mets	2 and 20
15	Colby Lewis	Rangers	MiLB deal
17	Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	1 and 16
20	Jason Vargas	Royals	4 and 32
23	Edinson Volquez	Pirates	1 and 5
24	Roberto Hernandez	Phillies	1 and 4.5
25	Randy Messenger	Japan	3 and money
26	Roy Halladay	Blue Jays	1 and Retire

So far, so good.  The Twins boosted their rotation for 2014 and for at least the following two seasons as well.  Hughes, Nolasco and Kevin Correia can be relied upon for innings next season.  In addition, the Twins have young, talented starters like Alex Meyer, Trevor May and Kyle Gibson who could contribute as early as 2014.  Sam Deduno has looked good in flashes.  Vance Worley should probably get one more chance.  Scott Diamond is alive.  The rotation depth is better, no doubt about it. 

However, there is still the chance that any and all of the following happen next season:  Correia implodes, Deduno implodes, the young guys don't develop, Worley is cooked, Hughes and/or Nolasco get hurt.  The Twins 2011 rotation looked pretty solid too, and now we're mired in year three of a rebuild.  I think that one more high-quality starter is worth pursuing.  Let's investigate who is still available and who is worthy of an investment.

No longer interested - Jair Jurrjens, Barry Zito, John Lannan, Kevin Slowey, and Mike Pelfrey

Each of these pitchers filled out the back-end of my top 30.  I viewed each as complete fall-back options and nothing more.  I wouldn't even call their agents at this point.  Unfortunately, we know that the Twins are not only interested in Pelfrey, but have reportedly offered him a two-year contract.  I hope beyond hope that he finds a better deal or the Twins pull that offer.  Pelfrey does not improve the rotation for 2014 and would be taking a spot away from a much more talented player like Gibson, Meyer or even Deduno.  If the Twins want a guy to walk around the mound, rubbing a baseball with both hands for a minute at a time, I am willing to fill that role for 80 bucks per appearance.  Odd number, but 80 is my lucky number.  Please other teams, offer Mike Pelfrey a stupid contract.  I beg you.

Status QO - Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez

Both of these guys are talented and could be great pitchers for the next few years.  However, both are set to make more money than the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco and would cost the Twins their second-round pick in 2014.  I don't think either guy will live up to the contract they receive, especially if it approaches 5 years and/or $100 million.  Santana throws hard but barely reaches league-average strikeout rates.  Jimenez is either awesome or awful.  I think that the Twins would be better off looking elsewhere and keeping that second-round pick. 

Some Dudes - Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm, Bronson Arroyo

There is absolutely nothing wrong with any of these three.  Each has flaws and each has strengths.  Arroyo is durable like the plague and has been effective with his wacky leg kick.  Maholm and Capuano are quality, back-end, lefty starters.  What does either of these pitchers do for the organization though?  Each of the three would make the 2014 Twins better.  Great.  The 2014 Twins could possibly reach .500 with one of these three.  That's nice. 

However, if you sign these guys for more than a season, then you're potentially keeping a rotation spot from a more talented player.  It's the basic Mike Pelfrey argument I made earlier.  If Alex Meyer develops as we hope, do we really want to be in a situation where he can't crack the rotation because Paul Maholm is making a very reasonable seven million dollars for the next two seasons?  These guys are likely to be decent values for the teams that sign them.  If the Twins had missed out on Nolasco and/or Hughes, I'd be completely in favor of either of these three. 

It is important to remember that there will be guys like these available next off-season.  In fact, one or two of these very pitchers could be available next off-season.  You don't need to lock up Chris Capuano.  Chris Capuano is the robin of the bird world.  He's nice, but he's easy to find. 

Since I've concentrated so hard on who I wouldn't target, let's look at who I would target.  Basically, the Twins can go one of two ways.

Option 1 - Play it cool, sign a guy with upside, hope for magic - Johan Santana, Scott Baker, Shaun Marcum

Colby Lewis received a minor league contract.  Is any of these three guys a safer bet than Lewis?  I'm not so sure.  If the Twins can't find a good long-term candidate for the rotation, I'd be very interested in taking a flyer on any of these three.  They combined for 93.1 innings in 2013, almost all from Marcum.  Marcum pitched, but not well, posting an ERA over 5 and losing 10 games with just 1 win. 

Santana is the most sentimental choice, but he'll also be 35 when the season starts and has missed two of the last three seasons due to injuries.  He's also the most naturally talented of the three.  Realistically, Santana belongs in the first category, but I can't separate my heart from my brain.  I can't put him in a group of cast-offs, even if Kevin Slowey is in that group.

Marcum and Baker will both be 32 next season.  Both have had some success in the past and both have major injury history.  Each could regain health and regain value.  If that happened, the Twins could trade them for another asset or look to extend a reasonably young and talented pitcher for a couple more years.  This keeps the Twins from assuming any long-term risk, while also looking for upside. 

It's not an ideal plan.  Even if it works and they pitch well, the trade market could be dry in July and August, or the player could choose leave for greener pastures instead of signing an extension.  Plus, a recent report indicated that the Twins are not interested in Baker, so we're really just talking about one guy.  Ultimately, I prefer...

Option 2 - As we learned in "Brink," go big or go home - Matt Garza, A.J. Burnett

Yeah, let's get it on.  I thought for sure that the Twins would stop at Nolasco.  Then, I was even more sure that they would stop at Nolasco and Hughes.  Now, I see reports that the Twins are still in on Garza, so I've decided to just get my hopes up like crazy.  Garza would become the best pitcher in a suddenly talented rotation.  His addition, added to the additions already made, could transform the Twins into a semi-contender in 2014, if a few more dominoes fall alongside him. 

Burnett is very unlikely, but would be an excellent consolation if the Twins miss out on Garza.  Burnett has been outstanding the past two seasons and he's only about a month older than Arroyo.  If the Twins are willing to shell out three years for Arroyo, they should be willing to do the same for Burnett.  Of course, Burnett wants to stay closer to his home in Maryland. 

What if the Twins offer to move the franchise to Maryland?  Or, more likely, what if they make Burnett a crazy offer like 3 years and $45 million?  It sounds stupid, but Burnett has been worth $32 million over the past two seasons, according to Fangraphs.  He could approach $45 mil over the next three seasons.  Plus, we would reunite him with Phil Hughes.  Fun all around. 

Completely unreasonable too.

Garza is the guy for me.  He's young, he's talented, he spits a lot, and he would be around for a lot of years.  He'd become the de facto Ace of the staff.  I imagine he would require a five-year deal, but he could remain productive through each of those five seasons.  Since 2007, Garza has never been worse than good, but has often been much better.  If the Twins land Garza, this will be the rotation in 2014:

Garza

Nolasco

Hughes

Correia

Deduno (but secretly I hope it's Gibson)

I like that rotation an awful lot.  Again, it's not a playoff team's rotation, but getting we're closer.  Having those three veterans in the fold mean that if the young guys develop, the Twins could be sitting on another perennial playoff team.  Correia is gone after 2014 and the Twins could still have some money to sink into a more talented replacement.  Isn't it fun that we are even thinking like this? 

Of course, if Garza elects to go elsewhere, the Twins could always...

Hold for now, try again in 2014 - Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, Josh Johnson, and who knows who else

The Twins are building something, so they can simply improve in 2014.  Maybe the rotation ends in shambles, but the long-term building blocks of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and May don't have to go anywhere.  With that core in place for at least three more seasons, the Twins can look to get incrementally better as the next few seasons play out.  If they miss out on Garza, it would be completely reasonable to just hold for next year and see how things go.  Maybe Gibson, Meyer and May will all take huge steps forward.  Maybe Worley or Diamond will rebound.  Maybe Deduno will put it all together, stay healthy and pitch his way into my heart. 

I don't see an avenue for the 2014 Twins to make the playoffs.  The Garza scenario is enticing and could get them to the precipice.  I like the Garza scenario because it also plays out well for 2015 and beyond, even if the playoffs are a pipe dream in 2014.  The playoffs are definitely in play for the 2015 Twins.  Maybe not where we sit right now, but if they make one more big move to boost their rotation, it's not impossible.  Every move they make needs to have benefit in the short- and long-term.  That is why I support signing Garza and prefer not to sign Arroyo or Pelfrey.  For me, it's Garza or just chill.

State of the Minnesota Twins starting rotation

The starting rotation has been the most scrutinized and discussed part of the Twins team over the past few seasons.  A strong rotation is vital to a team's success and the Twins have not achieved much success over the past three seasons.  This off-season brings hope of a turnaround.  The Twins have invested heavily into their rotation, adding two young, talented pieces who will be around for three or more seasons.  In fact, the Twins have spent more money on pitching this off-season than any other team in baseball thus far. 

I want to analyze the starters that the Twins have right now and try to figure out the rotation for 2014.  I count as many as 14 potential starters for the Twins next season, so I put them in tiers for organizational purposes. 

You call that a knife? - Liam Hendriks

I don't really understand why Hendriks was DFA'ed.  I don't think he's great, but he's better than some of the other options on the 40-man roster.  Plus, he's really young and he kind of looks like a koala bear.  This has nothing to do with Hendriks and koalas being from Australia, it's just a fact.  I'd have just cut Kris Johnson, but I'm a heartless b-word.  In fact...

THIS is a knife - Kris Johnson, Andrew Albers and Logan Darnell

I don't see much of an avenue for long-term success for any of these three.  I don't hold any ill-will toward Johnson, Albers or Darnell.  Please don't think that I do!  I'm most interested in Albers, as his walk rates are a lot more impressive and he actually had the best strikeout rate of the three at AAA last season.  Plus, he's had some MLB success.  I think that these three will make up 3/5ths of a really fine Rochester rotation.

Troll and Troll 2 - Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak

The Twins have gotten good production from these two players as relievers.  The Twins have plenty of mediocre starting pitching options.  The Twins are trolling us when they leak that these two could start next year.  It's all just meant to drum up the opposite of enthusiasm.  I'm not sure why, but the Terry Ryan who wears a leather jacket likes to pick on nerds.

2014 or BUST! - Vance Worley and Scott Diamond

This is the first tier that contains pitchers I would be interested in seeing the Twins rotation in 2014.  In fact, if Worley and Diamond don't make the rotation (or bullpen I suppose), the Twins will risk losing them for nothing.  Both of these pitchers are out of options and need to be on the MLB roster next season, or risk being exposed to every other team via waivers.  I think that's how it works. 

Diamond's 2012 was not a fluke.  He rode pinpoint command and a great ground ball rate to a really good season.  Diamond's command that season was a fluke.  He never had that level of command and it seems unlikely that he'll get it back.  His ground ball rate looks like a fluke too.  It spiked about six points.  If these two things hold true going forward, we have a soft-tossing lefty with no options who doesn't really profile well for the bullpen.  If push comes to shove, I'd have no problem with the Twins exposing Diamond to the rest of the league.

Worley is another story.  I want Worley to seize his possibly last opportunity and get back to the success that he had in 2011.  Worley is a year younger than Diamond and had more MLB success.  His 2011 season was not a fluke.  He did bump his strikeout rate compared with his MiLB history, but the rest was pretty in line with who he always was.  His 2012 season was worse, but acceptable because he traded some strikeouts for more ground balls.  His 2013 season was a disaster.  He averaged fewer than five innings per start and got annexed to AAA, using his last option year. 

Now, in 2013 Worley achieved the trifecta of unlucky pitching stats.  His strand rate dropped nearly 10 points.  His home run to fly ball ratio jumped about six points.  His BABIP was .401.  .401!!!!  There is no way he replicates that number.  Now, his strikeout rate dipped about 8 points too, so part of his bad performance was actual bad performance.  However, if Worley made 10 starts in April and May of 2014 and had an ERA around 4, I wouldn't be shocked. 

I know there is a push to add a lefty to the rotation, but I'd prefer the Twins go with their five most talented starters, so I prefer Worley to Diamond, regardless of what hand he throws with.

The Guy with Options - Kyle Gibson

Going solely on talent, Gibson is far more likely than Worley or Diamond to be a part of the next good Twins team.  However, Gibson has options left on his deal and can be sent to AAA without remorse.  The Twins can easily use his poor performance with the Twins in 2013 as a reason to send him back to AAA in 2014 for more delicious seasoning.  I can't imagine a scenario where Gibson spends all of 2014 with AAA, but I'll bet dollars to donuts (is that a phrase?) that Gibson is a Red Wing in April. 

The Peoples' Champ - Sam Deduno

When Deduno is eligible, he will be elected to the Twins Hall of Fame.  He is popular with a capital P.  I get it.  He's fun to watch.  Well, he's fun to watch in the same way that a high-speed chase is fun to watch.  He's unpredictable, he's dangerous, and in the long run, something is going to end up on fire. 

Deduno improved his walk rate in 2013 and he had already boasted a ridiculous ground ball rate.  That combo helped him to some real success, evidenced by a 4.04 xFIP.  Of course, Deduno also missed a lot of time due to groin and shoulder injuries.  I'm fine with the Twins using Deduno as a fifth starter while he's cheap.  However, I wake up in a cold sweat at least once a week after dreaming that the Twins have signed Deduno to a long-term extension. 

He deserves to be in the 2014 rotation.  However, if he stumbles, the Twins have to be ready to jettison him for a younger, more projectable player like Gibson. 

The Locks - Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia

Each of these players will need to wear a MasterLock around their neck next season.  Unless they get injured, these three will be in the rotation to start 2014 and likely to finish.  I'd guess that Nolasco and Hughes will get a full season no matter how they perform.  Luckily, I think each pitcher will be an upgrade over everyone used last season. 

It's possible that the Twins could trade Correia in July or August as he is only signed through next season.  However, I don't think the return for Correia would be that great and the only way I see the Twins moving him is if they absolutely need to open up a spot in the rotation for...

The Young Studs - Alex Meyer and Trevor May

I would say that there is a 0% chance that either Meyer or May are in the rotation to start 2014.  Neither pitcher has reached AAA and each has things to work on.  Meyer is obviously the more impressive prospect and long-term building block.  It would be great to see Meyer improve his walk rate (9.7% with New Britain in 2013), but his strikeout rate (28.1%) could help to minimize the damage from those walks.  This is evident in his 3.21 ERA with AA last season.  Meyer only threw 70 innings for New Britain, but got some work in the AFL.  He needs more time in the Minors.

It seems that some are ready to toss Trevor May aside.  I can admit to frustration with his performance last season.  He repeated AA and merely improved, but didn't dominate.  He raised his strikeout rate from 22.9% to 24.1% and he lowered his walk rate from 11.8% to 10.2%.  Repeating the level may have been part of his improvement, but it could be that he is developing slowly.  My favorite May stat - 82.  May has made 82 starts over the past three seasons.  Basically, he takes the ball when it's his turn.  Durability is an underrated measure in young pitchers.  We could be looking at a potential 200-inning number 4 or 5 starter, with upside.  Don't toss him aside, but don't expect him to be ready in 2014. 

I'd bet the rotation will look like this to start 2014 (assuming health):

Kevin Correia

Ricky Nolasco

Phil Hughes

Sam Deduno

Scott Diamond

I prefer Worley to Diamond, but the lefty-righty thing is real.  I also think the Twins could use Worley in the bullpen and he'd be more effective than Diamond would be.  That said, I don't trust Deduno or Diamond, and I think the rotation will look like this come September:

Kevin Correia

Ricky Nolasco

Phil Hughes

Kyle Gibson

Alex Meyer

Of course, the way things have gone the last few seasons, this will probably be the rotation in September:

Kevin Correia

Mike Pelfrey (acquired mid-season)

Logan Darnell

Terry Mullholland

Contest Winner

Since more depth is better than less depth, I hope the Twins sign one more starter this off-season.  I only consider Nolasco, Hughes and Gibson as worthy of holding a spot for.  Tomorrow, I'll revisit my free agent starting pitching target and outline who I would target as that final guy.  Wait patiently, you're only 24 hours or so away!

December Mailbag!!!!!

A mailbag on a Tuesday?  Now I've heard of everything!  Remember that song "December" by Collective Soul?  This mailbag is dedicated to that song.  As is typical, these are actual questions that will be actually answered by me.  This month, I even have some questions written by others!  Fame!  FAME! 

The Twins have been surprisingly active this Fall, adding two starting pitchers and cutting one Australian.  What do you think the Twins' next move will be?  Also, what do you hope the Twins' next move will be?  Thanks, I am an avid scanner of your work.

Brad S., St. Paul, MN

What an intelligent question-set!  I think the Twins will make their next move this week and I think it will be something relatively minor.  I could see the Twins adding a veteran backup catcher like John Buck or Kurt Suzuki, but no one overly sexy.  If not a catcher, I'll bet that the next move will be for one more starting pitcher.  The Twins have watched injuries and suckiness decimate their rotation for three years now.  I'd guess that adding one more arm to the rotation will be a priority. 

My hope is that the next move the Twins make is really smart.  As opposed to a dumb move, of course.  I'd like to see the Twins target a starting pitching reclamation project to use in the rotation until Alex Meyer is ready, hopefully in July or August.  I think there are three interesting names:  Shaun Marcum, Johan Santana and Scott Baker.  Each has talent and each has major injury issues.  When Colby Lewis signed a minor league deal, I was slightly surprised.  I'd say each of these three are in the Colby Lewis range of talent/injury concern.  I'd like to see the Twins land one on either an MiLB deal or a deal in the one year,  $1-3 million range.  Seems like a decent investment.

Real Questions! - Thanks to Paul and Eric Pleiss of the always entertaining Talk to Contact podcast and Puckett's Pond and Knuckleballs, respectively.  Check out their work on the internet.

Do you think the Twins will sign a 1B/DH type guy, or even a 3B or middle infielder off the of free agent market? Essentially what I want to know is, will Nick Punto or Mark Reynolds be a Twin in 2014?

-P

The greatest flaw in a fake mailbag is that while you wait for questions to answer, things actually happen.  Thus, Nick Punto signed a very fair contract to hustle for the As in 2014 and probably 2015 because they will fall in love with him like everyone else does. 

Reynolds is still a free agent and I don't hate the idea of bringing him in on a small deal.  Reynolds mostly sucks, but he does have massive power.  He has 20 or more home runs in each of the last six seasons.  Sure his career batting average is .233 and he strikes out more than I fail to come up with analogies, but his awesome right-handed power could play well at Target Field. 

That said, I think that Jason Bartlett will be the only Twins' infield signing this off-season.  Joe Mauer moving to first closed off that position for the next half-decade, Brian Dozier is entrenched at second and the left side can be cobbled together with Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar and possibly Bartlett.

Twins HOF voting is open on Facebook (Facebook voting is, obviously, the best way to make any decision), who are you voting for besides Chuck Knoblauch? 

-Eric

Don't forget about Twitter!  I remember when everyone thought that Thomas Dewey beat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election, but everyone forgot about the Twitter results.  I actually wrote an entire post about my Twins Hall of Fame ballot.  If you missed it, you can find it here.  If you don't like reading, I would vote for Knoblauch, Shane Mack, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper and Corey Koskie.  I would not vote for Dazzle.  I have standards.

What does the former Minnesota Twin Matt Fox say?

-Eric

Ok, I did not get this reference.  I listen to "The Starters," a truly glorious NBA podcast.  One of their promos has Rick Fox (former NBA player and "actor") saying, "The dog says woof, the cat says meow, but what does the Fox say?"  He laughs like a total knob after he says it too.  Real creepy laugh, like he's going to try to steal your significant other.   Anyway, the reference comes from a viral video seen by literally millions of people and not by me.  I prefer this video, with just over 17,000 views, mostly from me.  I have every intention of re-casting this video with current Twins players.  Just be patient. 

That said, I am guessing Matt Fox would say "thanks for giving me one start, Twins."  Or, he might say, "why couldn't I have been born just three years later when the Twins really sucked and could have used a random AAA starter for a few months."  It just depends on how negative he is. 

The Twins missed out on Jarrod Saltinecracker and I am bummed out.  I am not ready for the Josmil Pinto era and I think the Twins need Salty or the veteran presence/punch-ability of A.J. Pierzynski.  What do you think?

Brad S., St. Paul, MN

Not to go all meta and disagree with mysel...I mean a reader, but I am glad the Twins didn't land Saltalamacchia.  I outlined five very reasonable reasons why in a post here.  More self-promotion!  Basically, I don't think Saltalamacchia is that great and much of his success in the past has a flukiness to it that scares me away from a three-year deal when Pinto could end up being a better offensive player as early as 2014.  I'm sure he'll enjoy his two months with the Marlins. 

Ok hotshot, you always think you're so smart.  I have report cards that say otherwise.  How many games do the Twins win in 2014?  Don't be gutless like you usually are and give a range.  Pick a number.  Put your name on it.

Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN

First off, most of my teachers were out to get me.  Second, I'm going to be brave and say 74 wins.  The additions of Nolasco and Hughes might be somewhat overrated for 2014.  My opinion is that each pitcher is pretty good and could be better than that if things break correctly.  I am more excited about their signings as a symbol of a potential shift in thinking within the Front Office.  The Twins either see that free agency is an important component in building a team or they feel the team is close to contending and need to fill remaining holes quickly.  Either way, I prefer that to treading water. 

Back to 2014.  The Twins won 66 games in 2013, but their Pythagorean record gave them 63 wins.  Those figures are pretty close, so I don't put too much stock in the difference.  Replacing Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley/Scott Diamond/Pedro Hernandez with Hughes and Nolasco has to add a few wins to the total.  It just has to.  I mean, look at those names.  Gross. 

In addition, the Twins played all of September without their best player (Mr. Charisma himself, Joe Mauer!).  The Twins were 8-20 in September.  Mauer last played on August 19.  The Twins were 54-69 on that day, good for a 71-win pace.  I don't really think Mauer was the reason why the team fell off that pace, but he was likely part of the reason.  In addition, a bad team is likely to use a lot of odd pieces in September, which could explain why guys like Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, Cole De Vries, Pedro Hernandez, Shairon Martis and Liam Hendriks were playing in September. 

The team I watched in 2013 was more competitive than the team I watched in 2012.  Both teams won 66 games.  I believe the Twins were better in 2013 and could have won more games if the needed/wanted to.  I think that the team will be trying a bit harder to win in September of 2014 and I think the roster will be more talented as well.  74 wins seems reasonable.    

Both the real and fake mailbags have been emptied and I feel very satisfied.  If you want to contribute a question to a future mailbag, feel free to send me an email at kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com.  Or, you can find me on Twitter - @bridman77.  Or, you can come to my house.  It's a little messy right now.  Have fun, everyone!

Phil Hughes signs with the Minnesota Twins

Where were you when the Twins became a completely different franchise?  In the last 72 hours or so, the Twins have doled out $73 million in long-term contracts, surpassing their previous off-season record by nearly $300 billion dollars (if you believe some fans).  On Wednesday, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year deal, and tonight, they added former Yankee Phil Hughes to an increasingly (and suddenly) talented starting rotation.  Hughes will earn $8 million for the next three seasons, earning a longer contract than many experts had predicted. 

The Twins have to bank on a change of scenery transforming Hughes into a completely different pitcher.  Over the course of his career, Hughes has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is probably smaller than the park in your neighborhood.  As such, he has been very home run-prone, averaging 1.29 home runs per nine innings in his career.  The move to Target Field could help suppress those home runs. 

Park Factor stats compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.  For home runs in 2013, Yankee Stadium had a 9th-best HR Park Factor of 1.128, greatly favoring hitters.  The HR Park Factor at Target Field in 2013 was 0.802, 27th in the league.  The great thing about this normalized stat is that it takes out the types of players each team has, so the fact that the Twins don't hit a lot of home runs as a team is factored in.  This seems to indicate that Hughes' biggest bug-a-boo could be neutralized to some extent.  Although, extreme fly ball pitchers will always be somewhat more home run-prone, by definition.

Hughes might be classified incorrectly as a strikeout pitcher.  His career rate of 19.7% is slightly above average, but also just slightly higher than Scott Baker's 19.1% rate.  That said, Hughes does throw hard.  He consistently sits 92-93 with his fastball and can touch 95.  He has a low-80s slider that he has developed over the years and uses as an out pitch.  He had a 31.3% strikeout rate with that pitch in 2013.  His fastball was crushed for a .917 OPS last season, but the home ballpark change and crazy high fastball BABIP of .337 would point toward improvement with that pitch in coming years. 

His split stats are encouraging as well.  He doesn't really have a noticeable platoon split, as his career OPS against lefties is .760 and his career OPS against righties is .743.  His walk rate and strikeout rate are better against righties, although his rates against lefties are not bad either.  He actually allows home runs at a higher rate against right-handed batters, which you might not have guessed.  Moving to Target Field won't help that final rate much, but the rest of the stats are encouraging.    

His home/road splits really catch the eye.  His career ERA at home is 4.96 and his career ERA on the road is 4.10.  At home versus lefties, he surrenders a .831 OPS, basically equivalent to facing Hunter Pence in every at-bat.  In contrast, lefties had an OPS of just .681 on the road, or an entire lineup of Brandon Crawfords.  Against righties, Hughes gave up an OPS of .781 at home and an OPS of .700 on the road.  All of these splits were even worse last year, and he still had an xFIP of 4.35.  Target Field won't fix everything, but New Yankee Stadium was not doing Hughes any favors.

Hughes will always give up his share of home runs.  All fly ball pitchers do.  However, with his good strikeout rate, better-than-good walk rate, and good raw stuff, it is conceivable that Hughes could greatly improve his performance with the Twins.  Add in the fact that he'll be just 30 when this very reasonable contract ends, and you get a shark move from a GM who has never been described as any sort of vicious predator animal.     

In my free agent starting pitcher preview, I wrote the following: 

Who will the Twins actually sign?  I have no clue.  I hope they are shockingly active.  I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year.  How wild would that be?  Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring.  He starts calling everyone "playa."  Constant Finger Guns.  It would be amazing.  Make it happen, TR.

I had the wrong names, but the level of activity matches.  I hope the Twins beat writers can get used to being called "playa."  Blow the smoke off those finger guns, TR.  In fact, why not reload those babies and sign a catcher next?  Why stop there?  Bronson Arroyo is still available.  Scott Kazmir isn't going to get a larger deal than Hughes and the Twins still have money to spend.  If that happens, you can expect to see Terry Ryan in a leather jacket all summer long, no matter how hot it gets.  Ray-Bans too.

Personally, I'm basking in the glow of a Twins team that is actually committed to getting better.  I'm getting excited to an uncontrollable point.  You can analyze the talent of Nolasco and Hughes until sundown.  In fact, both guys might completely flame out next year.  What you can't say any longer is that the Twins won't spend money to win baseball games.  They just sunk $73 million into the rotation and greatly improved the team in the process.  I'm starting to think this team could win 75-80 games next year.  I need to sit down.  Wait, I am sitting down.  I need to lie down.  It's all just too exciting.

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets: Worley Division Part II

Yesterday, I outlined six starting pitchers who I think the Twins should target in an effort to boost their rotation.  If you missed it, you can find it here.  I am focusing on pitchers who are far from free agency, but maybe not household names.  I want to find another Vance Worley, but this time, I'd like for it to work out a bit better.  Instead of a flood of sadness, perhaps a geyser of effective innings?

My one question to myself was why would teams give up these valuable players?  It's not like they don't have idiots checking Fangraphs for walk and ground ball rates too.  They know what xFIPs are.  However, the Phillies traded Vance Worley just one year ago.  While we all know how that turned out, it could have worked out nicely for the Twins.  I mean, Worley had an excellent rookie season in 2011.  He regressed a bit in 2012, but fought injuries too.  He was just 25 and years from free agency.   There was still reason to think he would be an effective pitcher going forward.  He certainly wasn't in 2013, although he could still bounce back. 

The Vance Worley trade looks like a failure because of how he (and Trevor May to an extent) performed, but the idea wasn't a bad one.  Find a good, but not dominant starter and add him to the back of the rotation cheaply.  Moves like those free the team up for hypothetical free agent signings and blockbuster trades that aren't likely to happen 'round these parts.  We can dream though.

Anyway, I have six more players who I think fit that Worley archetype.  Would you like to see them? 

Ivan Nova - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017

Nova probably seems like an odd inclusion.  You don't have to dig to find out why he's good, he was just good in 2013.  His 3.10 ERA was better than his 3.68 xFIP, so it's not like there's some great hidden value that some dork on Fangraphs can unearth.  To explain his inclusion, I'll create a narrative.  I just think Nova's a fine pitcher and I'm not sure a fine pitcher is right for the Yankees.  The Yankees want stars, not values.  They want CC Sabathias not Ivan Novas.  Don't get me wrong, they'll use Ivan Novas, but they prefer to have BIG STAR names instead.  Nova is a good pitcher.  His ground ball rate is outstanding, he limits walks and his strikeout rate is good, although not great.  The Twins would properly appreciate his value.  End narrative.

Wily Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

When the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse right before last season, I posited that Peralta might become available via trade.  I was completely wrong, but maybe the right deal didn't come along.  Peralta's youth and upside would make him a more expensive trade target.  His talent is so great that it might be worth paying a slight premium to acquire him.  Peralta throws hard (94-95) but it hasn't translated to MLB strikeouts just yet (16.1% K rate in 2013).  His walk rate is not high, but higher than I'd like (9.1%).  His ground ball rate is nice though (51%).  With some natural development, Peralta could still reach his lofty prospect ceiling.  Right now, he's a number 4 or 5, but he could become a 3 and maybe even a 2.  1 to watch.

David Phelps - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

Back to the Big Apple!  Phelps has shuffled between the Yankee rotation and bullpen over the past two seasons.  As a reliever, he racks up strikeouts, with a 28% rate in 2013.  As a starter, his K rate drops almost ten points, but still hovers around league-average.  His walk rate actually dipped as a starter too.  Phelps is a fly ball pitcher and we all know that left-handed power is suppressed at Target Field.  His 2013 ERA was just under five, but his xFIP was just over four.  He was lucky with HR/FB ratio, but had some bad luck with strand rate and BABIP.  In all, Phelps could be a reliable 4th or 5th starter and I can't imagine he would cost much in return.    

Todd Redmond - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 29 in 2014, Free Agent in 2020

Redmond might be a one-year wonder, but his 2013 season was a quiet breakout campaign.  Redmond basically spent all of 2009-2012 in AAA with Atlanta and Cincinnati.  The Blue Jays had some injury issues in their rotation, so Redmond got his chance.  He made 14 starts for the Blue Jays and posted a decent 4.32 ERA.  His xFIP of 4.16 nearly matches, so you can basically believe what you see on the surface.  Redmond's primary pitch is his sinker, but he has extreme fly ball tendencies.  Very odd.  Redmond gave up a lot of home runs last season, but his strikeout and walk rates were both very good and right in line with how he pitched in AAA for all those years.  The Twins have had luck with sinkerballers in the past, and if Redmond becomes available again (he was waived twice last year), he could be a decent fifth starter for a few years.  Just don't give him a Blackburn contract.

Esmil Rogers - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 28 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017

BACK TO BACK BLUE JAYS!  Canada is cool.  Rogers throws hard, with a fastball sitting 93-94.  His ERA in 2013 was a poor 4.77, but his xFIP was an acceptable 4.06.  Rogers split his season between the bullpen and rotation and actually saw his strikeout rate jump when starting (17.4% to 11.3%) although he generally struck out more batters as a reliever in the past.  Rogers gets enough ground balls and was a little unlucky with home runs last season.  Rogers isn't going to be anything more than a 4th or 5th starter, but he could fill that role very cheaply.  If nothing else, he could be Anthony Swarzak's replacement in long relief when Swarzak starts next year.  Right?

Nick Tepesch - Texas Rangers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

I'm fond of Tepesch.  In 2013, Tepesch was an early Rookie of the Year candidate, before fading hard in June and July.  He ended the season with 17 starts, an ERA of 4.84 and an xFIP of 3.82.  Tepesch is triple good - good strikeout rate, good walk rate, good ground ball rate.  He's a sinker/slider pitcher who works around 90-91.  Tepesch's slider is excellent, but his sinker and fastball were very hittable in 2013.  He's just 25, but he projects to be the Rangers' sixth starter at best, possibly lower considering they just signed Colby Lewis.  The Rangers could use a LF/DH kind of guy and the Twins have this Josh Willingham dude who they should really be considering shopping around.  It's just an idea, but Tepesch isn't bad return for a 35-year-old, soon-to-be-free agent coming of an injury-plagued season. 

That's my list, what do you think?  Obviously some of these guys are more impressive than others.  If the Twins just exchange Mike Pelfrey for Esmil Rogers in the 2014 rotation, fans should rightfully picket Target Field and post snarky  (but not clever) comments on the Twins' Facebook page.  However, if the Twins could possibly land a big free agent like Matt Garza and then make a trade for someone like Dallas Keuchel, the rotation could be pretty decent for a good while.  I'm finding it hard to believe the Twins will sign a big free agent, do you really think they'll sign two or more? 

All teams need 4th and 5th starters.  Kevin Correia is the only Twins pitcher who I would consider a reliable 4th or 5th starter.  Unfortunately, he's masquerading as their Ace.  Adding to the back of the rotation is not exciting, but it helps win games.  If Correia was the Twins' 4th best starter, the rotation could be pretty good.  The 2000s Twins had some unsexy, but reliable starters at the back of their rotations.  The 12 guys I outlined won't help transform the team, but they are good supplements.  Some could be even better.  I support exploring all avenues.

Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets: Worley Division Part I

In my never-ending quest to build my hopes up about the Twins' activity level this off-season, I have been writing about free agent targets and high-end starting pitching trade targets over the last few weeks.  The Twins have never signed a free agent to a huge deal and tend to deal in smaller trades or trades for high-end prospects.  The more recent Twins trades for MLB pitching have netted players like Carl Pavano and Vance Worley. 

I have identified some players who I think profile similarly to pre-2013 Worley, but hopefully can perform more like 2009-10 Pavano.  Each of these players is some positive combination of young, far from free agency and talented, although each to varying degrees.  Before you jump to the conclusion that I feel it is ok for the Twins to settle for lesser players, just know that I do not feel that way at all.  I think the players on this list are talented, can be acquired reasonably (without giving up a top 10 prospect or Glen Perkins) and could perform as a 3rd or 4th starter for many years. 

There is something wrong with all of these guys, and that is why they aren't as expensive and untouchable as say, Julio Teheran or Gerrit Cole.  However, there is enough to like that the Twins could really see solid value if they seek out one or more of these players. 

Felix Doubront - Boston Red Sox - Age 26 in 2014, Free Agent in 2018

Certainly not my favorite name on this list, Doubront could have some hidden value.  He throws in the low 90s but strikes out batters at an above league-average rate.  His ground ball rate is just above league-average as well.  His walk rate is somewhat worrisome, at just over 10% in his past two seasons.  I would trust the Twins to work with Doubront on his control and if he can get that rate down around 8%, I think he could be a reliable 4th or 5th starter with a little upside. 

Marco Estrada - Milwaukee Brewers - Age 30 in 2014, Free Agent in 2016

Estrada is the oldest and closest to free agency on my list, but his durability issues could play in the Twins favor if they wanted to pursue him.  He only throws in the 88-90 MPH range, but he gets strikeouts behind a filthy changeup.  Batters had a 33 OPS+ against that change and Estrada posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of about 10 when using that pitch.  His strikeout rate is legit and his walk rate is even better.  He's only thrown 266.1 innings the past two seasons, so there are reasons why the Brewers might not want to rely on him.  133 innings in a season would be a freaking Twins record at this point, so they'd be happy to take a flier. 

A.J. Griffin - Oakland Athletics - Age 26 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

Griffin was really good last year, but the A's aren't shy about turning an aging (relative term) starter into a mess of prospects.  Griffin threw 200 innings and boasted a solid strikeout rate and better than solid walk rate.  He is an extreme fly ball pitcher, but from the right side, his fly ball tendencies could play well at Target Field.  Griffin holds runners extremely well, with a career strand rate just shy of 80%.  Griffin has a filthy curve ball, which hitters basically couldn't hit at all in 2013.  He threw it just over 500 times and hitters had an OPS+ of 6.  Six!  Griffin has out-performed his peripherals in his short career.  If he can balance out his ground ball/fly ball ratio just a bit, he could turn into a very solid and consistent number 3 starter. 

Jeremy Hefner - New York Mets - Age 28 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

Hefner isn't very exciting, I have to admit.  His strikeout rate is just ok and his walk rate isn't much better.  His ground ball rate is fine.  There are a lot of oks and fines in that description, and perhaps trading for someone like that isn't what fans really want.  Hefner also averaged just slightly over five innings per start in 2013.  He did improve from 2012 to 2013 and he could continue to develop into a number 4 or 5 starter.  Hefner is the definition of "nothing special."  That said, "nothing special" is better than "tornado of suck" and that's what Twins fans have been witnessing the past few seasons. 

Dallas Keuchel - Houston Astros - Age 26 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019

5.15 ERA in 2013?  Only throws in the high 80s?  Houston Astro?  Yep, Keuchel is all of those things and I still think he would be a good target.  Keuchel's 2013 xFIP of 3.58 is impressive.  His strikeout rate isn't dominant and neither is his walk rate, as each is slightly below league-average.  However, his ground ball rate of 55.8% and BABIP of .340 in 2013 points toward some upside/positive regression.  Houston seems to still be in the process of a rebuild, and Keuchel could be made available for a prospect package.  He's not good enough to attract a great prospect and the Twins have crazy depth in their system with plenty of decent prospects to offer.  His upside seems to be a better version of Scott Diamond, which the Twins could certainly use for the next six seasons. 

Lance Lynn - St. Louis Cardinals - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2018

Lynn might be a pipe dream.  He throws hard, racks up strikeouts and he's been an effective starter for a really good organization.  However, when you look at St. Louis, they have starting pitching depth for days, with Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, and Michael Wacha.  Add in Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, and the Cardinals might be willing to part with one of their young starters for the right price.  Lynn might walk more batters than the Twins like, but he can make batters miss and he gets enough ground balls to keep the infielders busy.  He also threw 200 innings last season and sits 92-93 with his fastball.  He's probably more expensive than the other names on this list, but he might have the most upside as well. 

We'll continue tomorrow with six more names.  If you simply cannot wait until then, just give me a call and I'll share the six names with you.  See you tomorrow!