Kyle Lohse signs with the Milwaukee Brewers

So, I totally called the Kyle Lohse signing a few weeks ago.  Don't believe me?  Read this.  Yeah, that's right, try to find holes in that one.  All [jokes] aside, this saga went on for far too long.  Kyle Lohse was simply not worth waiting for and simply not worth all the words that have been spoken and written about him.  But now that Lohse has actually signed with the Brewers, there are clear winners and losers and since I am not tired, I might as well weigh in.

Obviously, the Cardinals are winners.  When Scott Boras finally found a team willing to sign Lohse and forfeit their draft pick, the Cardinals gained the 28th pick in the upcoming draft.  This pick also comes with more money to spend, thus a DOUBLE BONUS!  The draft is not considered to be very strong, but that doesn't mean that St. Louis will rue and/or lament this new pick.  They seem to be pretty good at drafting, so extra picks + extra money = extra goodness.  Plus, uber-prospect Shelby Miller can simply take Lohse's place in the rotation.  He might put up better numbers and certainly will generate more fan interest than Lohse did.  Of course, St. Louis has no issues getting fans to their games.

I think the Brewers are both winners and losers.  Lohse does upgrade their rotation.  While I am not a huge fan of his, he can throw innings and he can be effective.  Of course, the Brewers fans know very well that starters coming from St. Louis to Milwaukee are not always super effective.  Jeff Suppan comes to mind.  Kyle Lohse is absolutely better than Jeff Suppan.  I just don't think Lohse is good enough to push the Brewers past the Cardinals or Reds.  I'm not sure gaining the upper hand in the 3rd place battle with Pittsburgh is worth the 17th overall pick, but I could be wrong.  Roy Halladay was the 17th overall pick, once upon a time.  So, premise proven and then dominated!

Since I am a Twins fan, I can see a glimmer of an opening for the Twins.  Wily Peralta seems to be the odd-man-out in Milwaukee.  The Brewers rotation is pretty well set with Yovani Gallardo, Lohse, and young, interesting starters like Peralta, Marco Estrada, Chris Narveson and Mike Fiers.  Peralta might be the most talented, but also the biggest question mark of the four.  If he becomes available, for whatever reason, the Twins might have a bat that Milwaukee could want (Justin Morneau perhaps?).  If that trade came along, I'd make it.  Adding an arm like Peralta to the Twins' farm system would make it even stronger than it already is.  I would hate that trade for the Brewers, for the record.

No one else really loses.  Kyle Lohse isn't good enough to shift a race or change the playoff odds of any given team.  Lohse doesn't push the Brewers over the top, at least in my opinion.  He simply isn't good enough.  He had some good seasons in St. Louis, no doubt about that.  However, he hasn't been consistent and he has dealt with some injuries.  Plus, he is getting older.  He'll be 37 when this contract ends.  3 years and $33 million is fair for Lohse, I guess.  I just can't get too excited about a player like Kyle Lohse.  Sorry Brewers fans.

Kyle Lohse signs with [MLB Team]

Note:  Kyle Lohse has not signed a contract, to my knowledge.  I just got bored waiting for it to happen and wrote this: 

Citing a report from [well-known and well-followed reporter that no one seems to like] Kyle Lohse signed a free agent contract worth [some years, some money] with [MLB Team], ending a long drawn-out process that most are [past tense emotion] to see ended.  [MLB team] has no doubt improved their rotation, but did so at the cost of [a draft pick of some sort].  Lohse is coming off of two good seasons with St. Louis and should provide some value to his new team.  Now that the long wait is over, was Kyle Lohse worth waiting this long for?

Lohse has certainly been a [positive adjective] pitcher over the past half-decade.  He is probably best known for [being a quietly effective pitcher; his soul patch; trying to break a hole in Ron Gardenhire's door].  While we may scoff at his notoriety, Lohse was a key contributor to St. Louis's NLCS team.  Of course, he was also shelled in Game 7 of that NLCS, only working into the 3rd inning.  Is it possible that he waited to regress until the last possible second?  I suppose it's possible. 

Kyle Lohse has never been a strikeout pitcher, although his strikeout rate isn't all that far off of league-average.  Last season, he posted a 16.6% K rate, which was just a tad below average.  What Lohse has consistently done in his Cardinals career is limit walks.  Limiting walks limits base runners, which limits runs.   This is certainly a factor in Lohse's favor. 

Was he a bit lucky last season?  Lohse posted a 77.2% strand rate, which is about 7% higher than his career average.  That number should stabilize for sure, and might even regress.  Lohse worked with Yadier Molina in St. Louis.  Will [new catcher] hold runners like Molina?  Molina is elite, [new catcher] is not on Molina's level.  How will this affect Lohse and his ability to hold runners?  Time will tell, but [MLB team] better hope this number doesn't regress too far.  

A final factor, St. Louis's park played roughly league average for pitchers last season, while [his new park] played [somehow].  Will this affect his overall statistics?  The only logical response would be, [it's possible]. 

I remember Kyle Lohse from his Twins days.  Back then he was extremely frustrating to watch.  He'd flash something positive, then get into trouble and end up getting yanked in the middle of an inning.  He seemingly always gave the ball to the manager with a big, dramatic eye-roll and then would go sulk in the dugout.  It was always obvious that Lohse was not long for the Twins organization.  The fans always wanted [something good] and Lohse always seemed to deliver [something bad].

So, what happened to Lohse when he got to St. Louis?  Well, Lohse really had two careers in St. Louis.  In three healthy seasons, Lohse had very good walk rates and stayed healthy, giving the Cardinals about 200 innings on average.  In two unhealthy seasons, Lohse was inconsistent, didn't limit walks and only provided about 200 innings in all.  The problem is that there is no way to know which Kyle Lohse [MLB team] has signed.  He could stay healthy, work well with his catcher, limit walks and have a great season.  Or, he could be injured, petulant, start walking more batters and have a poor season.  Is this uncertainty worth the loss of [a draft pick of some sort]?  I'm not so sure.

Here are Lohse's ERA+ figures over the last five seasons.  Is this a player who deserves [the contact he received]?

2012 - 134 [good]

2011 - 109 [fine]

2010 - 59 [gross]

2009 - 86 [not as gross, still gross]

2008 - 112 [nice]

Not the most consistent fellow, eh?

In the end, I strongly feel that [MLB team] will get [a version] of Kyle Lohse.  Lohse will pitch [some] innings, limit walks, and ultimately perform [as a pitcher, in some capacity].  I'm not sure that the move makes [MLB Team] that much better, but it certainly doesn't make them worse.  At worst, Lohse is a mid-rotation starter, on a team that [needs a mid-rotation starter to some extent].  The fans certainly have to view this as a [signing]. 

***Update, I found this image of Lohse with [MLB Team]:

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